the 2017 kentucky derby
The Kentucky Derby is never an easy race to handicap, but when it comes to the 2017 edition, I won't be offended if you deduce that picking names out of a hat might be equally as effective to what I'll try to do below.
The two most accomplished horses in the field, CLASSIC EMPIRE and MCCRAKEN, had injury hiccups on the trail to the race. The co-second choice has serious pedigree questions and improved so much in his last race that there's a very real question if he can do the same again. And the fourth choice lost two starts back by 21 lengths!
With that in mind, I took a somewhat different approach to this year's race and put each horse in post position order with details in a table:
2017 Kentucky Derby Capsules by No Need To Call It
You can click through to that for the full rundown on each and every horse, or you can simply read on to the greatly abbreviated version below. At first blush, I really have six groups of horses:
1) Horses I want nothing to do with at just about any price -- I don't see how they can win: GIRVIN, GORMLEY, HENCE, FAST AND ACCURATE, BATTLE OF MIDWAY, UNTRAPPED
2) Improbable longshots that I certainly doubt will win but can't dismiss entirely and could see betting at a gaudy price, or at least throwing into exotics: IRAP, THUNDER SNOW, STATE OF HONOR, SONNETEER
3) Likely enough but overrated winners: ALWAYS DREAMING, CLASSIC EMPIRE
4) Likely enough but still somewhat overrated winners that I could see betting at the right price: IRISH WAR CRY, MCCRAKEN
5) Horses that I think will probably technically be "good value" bets but that I just don't love: PRACTICAL JOKE, J BOYS ECHO
6) Horses that I think will be overlays *and* I like, i.e. the holy grail: GUNNEVERA, TAPWRIT, PATCH
Much has been made of the number of horses who like to "press" the pace -- in other words, their ideal trip would be in second a length or so behind the leader. In theory, that could mean a few things -- for one, it could mean a crawling pace where nobody wants to take control because they all want to sit just off of the pace. On the other hand, it could mean a quick pace because they all want to cease control. There's no way to know for sure, even with FAST AND ACCURATE -- yes, they definitely want to put him on the lead, but he hasn't run nearly as fast early as some of the other horses here. Now, if there's a will with these horses, then they're all fast enough to get there if they crack the whip. So it is likely safe to say that he'll be there out of post #3, and ALWAYS DREAMING would like to be just to his outside in a clear second.
But then what of STATE OF HONOR in post #6, the pace setter in Tampa Bay's stakes and an unkind rater in the Florida Derby? And IRAP, who has never been more than 1.5 lengths off the lead at the second call since December?
The bottom line is that in order to maintain the position they want, these horses will more likely than not have to be used early, and this should set it up for the mid-tier and further back closers.
And, if guessing what the pace might be wasn't enough, then how about the difficulty in guessing what's going to happen if it rains (as appears to be at least a 50/50 possibility right now)?
On paper, I think TAPWRIT would move forward the most in the slop, while ALWAYS DREAMING is a contender who doesn't appear well-bred for the mud and would definitely be worthy of a downgrade in it. GUNNEVERA is one that's sort of a tweener -- his damside loves the mud, his sire's line maybe not so much. PATCH is exactly the same way.
All of that points pretty clearly to me to TAPWRIT being the clear right play in the Kentucky Derby. He's the most well-bred horse in the race, he should relish the mud if it comes (he did post a 98 speed fig in a one-mile off track win at Gulfstream in December), and he should relish the pace that I think he'll get.
Now, at 20/1, I think TAPWRIT is an outstanding bet. But what will he go off at? 12/1 seems more appropriate, and I would take him down to even 8/1 in the slop. By the same but lesser token, I think GUNNEVERA and PATCH are worthy of bets at anything near their morning lines, maybe down to 10/1 for GUNNEVERA and 15/1 for PATCH.
What of PRACTICAL JOKE and J BOYS ECHO? Both are 20/1 on the morning line and both should probably be more like 15/1. It's marginal enough that my personal bias will force me to avoid both and be upset when they win.
Finally, what of those true competitors that I like, IRISH WAR CRY and MCCRAKEN? MCCRAKEN needs to tick up just a bit -- say even 6/1 -- for me to throw some ducats around. IRISH WAR CRY is a little bit tougher -- I think he needs to move up to 8/1 to be worth a play.
So, that's it barring any last-minute defections or updates ... your NO NEED TO CALL IT "official" Derby play is TAPWRIT. Good luck!
The two most accomplished horses in the field, CLASSIC EMPIRE and MCCRAKEN, had injury hiccups on the trail to the race. The co-second choice has serious pedigree questions and improved so much in his last race that there's a very real question if he can do the same again. And the fourth choice lost two starts back by 21 lengths!
With that in mind, I took a somewhat different approach to this year's race and put each horse in post position order with details in a table:
2017 Kentucky Derby Capsules by No Need To Call It
You can click through to that for the full rundown on each and every horse, or you can simply read on to the greatly abbreviated version below. At first blush, I really have six groups of horses:
1) Horses I want nothing to do with at just about any price -- I don't see how they can win: GIRVIN, GORMLEY, HENCE, FAST AND ACCURATE, BATTLE OF MIDWAY, UNTRAPPED
2) Improbable longshots that I certainly doubt will win but can't dismiss entirely and could see betting at a gaudy price, or at least throwing into exotics: IRAP, THUNDER SNOW, STATE OF HONOR, SONNETEER
3) Likely enough but overrated winners: ALWAYS DREAMING, CLASSIC EMPIRE
4) Likely enough but still somewhat overrated winners that I could see betting at the right price: IRISH WAR CRY, MCCRAKEN
5) Horses that I think will probably technically be "good value" bets but that I just don't love: PRACTICAL JOKE, J BOYS ECHO
6) Horses that I think will be overlays *and* I like, i.e. the holy grail: GUNNEVERA, TAPWRIT, PATCH
Much has been made of the number of horses who like to "press" the pace -- in other words, their ideal trip would be in second a length or so behind the leader. In theory, that could mean a few things -- for one, it could mean a crawling pace where nobody wants to take control because they all want to sit just off of the pace. On the other hand, it could mean a quick pace because they all want to cease control. There's no way to know for sure, even with FAST AND ACCURATE -- yes, they definitely want to put him on the lead, but he hasn't run nearly as fast early as some of the other horses here. Now, if there's a will with these horses, then they're all fast enough to get there if they crack the whip. So it is likely safe to say that he'll be there out of post #3, and ALWAYS DREAMING would like to be just to his outside in a clear second.
But then what of STATE OF HONOR in post #6, the pace setter in Tampa Bay's stakes and an unkind rater in the Florida Derby? And IRAP, who has never been more than 1.5 lengths off the lead at the second call since December?
The bottom line is that in order to maintain the position they want, these horses will more likely than not have to be used early, and this should set it up for the mid-tier and further back closers.
And, if guessing what the pace might be wasn't enough, then how about the difficulty in guessing what's going to happen if it rains (as appears to be at least a 50/50 possibility right now)?
On paper, I think TAPWRIT would move forward the most in the slop, while ALWAYS DREAMING is a contender who doesn't appear well-bred for the mud and would definitely be worthy of a downgrade in it. GUNNEVERA is one that's sort of a tweener -- his damside loves the mud, his sire's line maybe not so much. PATCH is exactly the same way.
All of that points pretty clearly to me to TAPWRIT being the clear right play in the Kentucky Derby. He's the most well-bred horse in the race, he should relish the mud if it comes (he did post a 98 speed fig in a one-mile off track win at Gulfstream in December), and he should relish the pace that I think he'll get.
Now, at 20/1, I think TAPWRIT is an outstanding bet. But what will he go off at? 12/1 seems more appropriate, and I would take him down to even 8/1 in the slop. By the same but lesser token, I think GUNNEVERA and PATCH are worthy of bets at anything near their morning lines, maybe down to 10/1 for GUNNEVERA and 15/1 for PATCH.
What of PRACTICAL JOKE and J BOYS ECHO? Both are 20/1 on the morning line and both should probably be more like 15/1. It's marginal enough that my personal bias will force me to avoid both and be upset when they win.
Finally, what of those true competitors that I like, IRISH WAR CRY and MCCRAKEN? MCCRAKEN needs to tick up just a bit -- say even 6/1 -- for me to throw some ducats around. IRISH WAR CRY is a little bit tougher -- I think he needs to move up to 8/1 to be worth a play.
So, that's it barring any last-minute defections or updates ... your NO NEED TO CALL IT "official" Derby play is TAPWRIT. Good luck!