the 2015 alfred g. vanderbilt handicap (GRADE 1)
I love 3-year-old racing -- there's so much promise there, even in the horses that haven't maybe succeeded at the higher levels yet.
But the Vanderbilt is the race I'm most excited for this weekend.
It says an awful lot when a horse like DEPARTING is 20/1. Now, granted, he's bred for success at longer distances and turf, but wow. (Note: I'm not endorsing betting on him. Those are very significant questions against horses like these. )
I also can't endorse VIVA MAJORCA in this spot. His other forays into graded stakes company haven't gone particularly well, and this is debatably one of the best fields I've seen in a while. Finally, there's not much pace here, so even a longshot stab doesn't seem warranted.
ROCK FALL is a horse I think you have to bet against. He hasn't gone particularly fast in any of his starts, and while I certainly don't think they'll be flying here as previously stated, he's facing the next class of competition and he'll be a pretty short price to answer that question. Of course, if he does win, he will have reeled off six straight wins while moving up the class ladder, and he becomes the early Breeders' Cup Sprint favorite (MASOCHISTIC and WORK ALL WEEK are both coming off losses so they can't claim anything until they reverse that course).
FAVORITE TALE also moves up in class after winning the Smile, and two starts back he threw in a clunker as ROCK FALL ran away from him in the stretch of the True North. This is another horse facing a new class of athlete here, and unless ROCK FALL falls over out of the gate, I don't see him winning.
So there are three horses I had to seriously consider:
CLEARLY NOW had finally lived up to the horse everyone wanted him to be at this time last year, as he was coming off a smashing six-length win in the Belmont Sprint. Since then, he has more or less fallen apart, posting three BRIS speed figures in the mid-80s and two other ho hum second-place finishes. At the end of the day, he hasn't really shown that he's back to his old form (his second-place to PRIVATE ZONE was OK, but I think he should have gone by in the stretch if he really still had it after a half in :44 3/5), and frankly he's never shown that he was competitive at the Grade 1 level. I'll be upset if he wins, but I'll pass.
SALUTOS AMIGOS would appear to be impacted by the pace here ... but, to quote the honey badger video, SALUTOS AMIGOS don't give a shit. He just wins. Fast pace, slow pace ... he just wins. The arguments I suppose you could make against him -- maybe -- is that he's 0-for-3 lifetime at Saratoga, and Jacobson is 0-for-18 this year. But I would take him at 5/2 over ROCK FALL at 2/1 any day.
Finally, I was convinced we had seen the sport's next superstar when I saw THE BIG BEAST power home in last year's King Bishop. It was one of those sneaky great performances -- he only won by a neck, and the competition wasn't that great, but he overcame being floated wide on the turn and just kept on coming into a relatively slow pace to pull it off. He's coming off another layoff since April, but Dutrow has run well off the layoff, and so has THE BIG BEAST -- he's 2-for-2 in his two starts off the layoff in his seven-race career. He's also only carrying 117 pounds compared to 121 for ROCK FALL and 122 for SALTUOS AMIGOS, so he's my clear choice to spring the minor upset here.
The NO NEED TO CALL IT play: THE BIG BEAST, $50 Win; $2 exacta box THE BIG BEAST, SALUTOS AMIGOS, CLEARLY NOW
But the Vanderbilt is the race I'm most excited for this weekend.
It says an awful lot when a horse like DEPARTING is 20/1. Now, granted, he's bred for success at longer distances and turf, but wow. (Note: I'm not endorsing betting on him. Those are very significant questions against horses like these. )
I also can't endorse VIVA MAJORCA in this spot. His other forays into graded stakes company haven't gone particularly well, and this is debatably one of the best fields I've seen in a while. Finally, there's not much pace here, so even a longshot stab doesn't seem warranted.
ROCK FALL is a horse I think you have to bet against. He hasn't gone particularly fast in any of his starts, and while I certainly don't think they'll be flying here as previously stated, he's facing the next class of competition and he'll be a pretty short price to answer that question. Of course, if he does win, he will have reeled off six straight wins while moving up the class ladder, and he becomes the early Breeders' Cup Sprint favorite (MASOCHISTIC and WORK ALL WEEK are both coming off losses so they can't claim anything until they reverse that course).
FAVORITE TALE also moves up in class after winning the Smile, and two starts back he threw in a clunker as ROCK FALL ran away from him in the stretch of the True North. This is another horse facing a new class of athlete here, and unless ROCK FALL falls over out of the gate, I don't see him winning.
So there are three horses I had to seriously consider:
CLEARLY NOW had finally lived up to the horse everyone wanted him to be at this time last year, as he was coming off a smashing six-length win in the Belmont Sprint. Since then, he has more or less fallen apart, posting three BRIS speed figures in the mid-80s and two other ho hum second-place finishes. At the end of the day, he hasn't really shown that he's back to his old form (his second-place to PRIVATE ZONE was OK, but I think he should have gone by in the stretch if he really still had it after a half in :44 3/5), and frankly he's never shown that he was competitive at the Grade 1 level. I'll be upset if he wins, but I'll pass.
SALUTOS AMIGOS would appear to be impacted by the pace here ... but, to quote the honey badger video, SALUTOS AMIGOS don't give a shit. He just wins. Fast pace, slow pace ... he just wins. The arguments I suppose you could make against him -- maybe -- is that he's 0-for-3 lifetime at Saratoga, and Jacobson is 0-for-18 this year. But I would take him at 5/2 over ROCK FALL at 2/1 any day.
Finally, I was convinced we had seen the sport's next superstar when I saw THE BIG BEAST power home in last year's King Bishop. It was one of those sneaky great performances -- he only won by a neck, and the competition wasn't that great, but he overcame being floated wide on the turn and just kept on coming into a relatively slow pace to pull it off. He's coming off another layoff since April, but Dutrow has run well off the layoff, and so has THE BIG BEAST -- he's 2-for-2 in his two starts off the layoff in his seven-race career. He's also only carrying 117 pounds compared to 121 for ROCK FALL and 122 for SALTUOS AMIGOS, so he's my clear choice to spring the minor upset here.
The NO NEED TO CALL IT play: THE BIG BEAST, $50 Win; $2 exacta box THE BIG BEAST, SALUTOS AMIGOS, CLEARLY NOW