THE 2016 PENNSYLVANIA DERBY AND COTILLION
The Pennsylvania Derby is just about the last meaningful 3-year-old event of the year.
I'm sure I'm forgetting something that's still run, but for the truly big boys and girls, this is the last time they'll run in age-restricted stakes.
So before they move on to face the likes of CALIFORNIA CHROME, DORTMUND, FROSTED and BEHOLDER and STELLAR WIND, here's one last race breakdown for the 3-year-old class of 2016.
THE 2016 PENNSYLVANIA DERBY
#12 HIT IT ONCE MORE is pretty interesting at the 20/1 morning line, and really at 8/1 or higher I think he's a bet. He has set fairly slow paces on the lead in his last two dominating wins, but he has the pedigree to relish the 9 furlongs and ran some big speed figures in those races despite the slow early fractions.
#11 DISCREET LOVER is hopeless.
#10 SUNNY RIDGE ran admirably in the Haskell after a four-month break and has been off another 50 or so days since. Nine furlongs is probably further than he wants to run and he's always been just a cut below the best at this level.
#9 NYQUIST returns after the same break that SUNNY RIDGE had and figures to get back on a fast track, over which he is 7-for-7 lifetime. The supposed "style change" they're looking to pull off here gives me some pause, but he does appear the horse to beat and would be a decent value at 5/2.
#8 MY MAN SAM remains eligible for an N2L race after seven starts. That said, his Travers no-show was his first truly "bad" race since his first. There's enough intrigue to warrant a saver bet at 20/1 or inclusion in exotics, and he does reunite with Leparoux, who guided him to his second-place finish in the Blue Grass.
#7 GUN RUNNER ran a huge race from post #13 in the Travers and earned a 108 speed figure because of it. If you draw a line through his off-track starts, the Derby and Travers are the only races he hasn't won, and he was third in both of those. But he has also been soundly defeated in both of those races, so I think at this point he is just a cut below the best this class has to offer and at 6/1 I would avoid.
#6 WILD ABOUT DEB is lightly raced enough to have still not hit his best race, and he ran on well late in the Smarty Jones. That said, he couldn't win, and he moves way up in class here.
#5 CUPID is 3-for-3 in Grade 3 races this year and has been dominating the races GUN RUNNER probably should have been running in. He has also been mostly unchallenged on these leads, so despite running them fairly quickly, I wouldn't get too excited about his record. I don't think he'll get away unchallenged in this one and I'm not entirely sold on him going nine furlongs.
#4 CONNECT was a terrible bet in the Travers (I remember saying that his morning line of 4/1, I think?, was the worst morning line I had ever seen) at 10/1, but he's a bit intriguing cutting back here and getting Castellano back aboard. I actually don't have a great explanation for why I kind of like him, but it just sort of feels right at 12/1.
#3 SUMMER REVOLUTION stretches out after DREFONG cotton candied his ass in the King's Bishop. His sire, SUMMER BIRD, of course won the Belmont, but I'm not exactly sold on the damside getting him nine furlongs. He does get Mike Smith aboard, but I mostly see his role as a speed killer (see CUPID).
#2 EXAGGERATOR will finally have to prove that he's as good on a fast track as he is on a wet track. The Travers was a debacle from the get-go and who knows what happened in the Belmont, but unless Parx is very speed-favoring on Saturday, this race will set up perfectly for him with a bunch of speed. He should be able to drop back, extricate himself from the rail on the backstretch and make his typical huge middle move. Shortening back up is almost certainly a good thing for him, too. And yet, accepting 9/2 odds in a deep field on a horse that's 2-for-9 lifetime on fast tracks is hard to swallow for me.
#1 AWESOME SLEW got away with a slow pace and powered home to win the Smarty Jones here by seven lengths. He was beaten by 32 lengths at odds of 32/1 in the Haskell and think he should be about those same odds here, not 10/1.
So, win bets: HIT IT ONCE MORE, NYQUIST, CONNECT
Exotics: Above 3 + EXAGGERATOR, MY MAN SAM
THE 2016 COTILLION
#1 CARINA MIA eyeballed SONGBIRD at the top of the stretch in the CCA Oaks and just for a moment, I thought she was going to run by. But she clearly tired late, and she subsequently backed off to run third as the even money favorite last out in the Grade 1 Ballerina. This 1 1/16 trip figures to be her best distance, and we could see a repeat of what we did in the CCA Oaks ... only the wire will come nearly two furlongs sooner this time -- you know, when they were neck and neck.
#2 CATHRYN SOPHIA has been very good throughout her career, but she's also been somewhat handled with kid gloves and has failed in her two toughest tests -- the Grade 1 Ashland back in April and the Grade 1 Acorn in June (note: I don't think the Kentucky Oaks was a very tough field). I think she's an underlay at 5/2.
#3 DISCO ROSE has no shot.
#4 LAND OVER SEA is only interesting from the perspective of some insane speed duel where CARINA MIA and CATHRYN SOPHIA take their shots at SONGBIRD and soften her up late. In this regard it potentially reminds me of the Grade 1 Ashland where WEEP NO MORE swept by CARINA MIA and CATHRYN SOPHIA after they laid down swift early fractions. That said, she is 1-for-12 lifetime on a fast track and a huge underlay at anything near 10/1 against a horse like SONGBIRD.
#5 SONGBIRD is going to win, right? She has been pressured early and doesn't come home absolutely super-strong, but she runs most horses off their feet. I have enough questions to not back her at 1/9, but if you do, it's hard to fault you.
#6 QUEENA ESTHER is probably getting her owners some nice tickets comped for them. She has no shot.
Win bet: CARINA MIA
I'm sure I'm forgetting something that's still run, but for the truly big boys and girls, this is the last time they'll run in age-restricted stakes.
So before they move on to face the likes of CALIFORNIA CHROME, DORTMUND, FROSTED and BEHOLDER and STELLAR WIND, here's one last race breakdown for the 3-year-old class of 2016.
THE 2016 PENNSYLVANIA DERBY
#12 HIT IT ONCE MORE is pretty interesting at the 20/1 morning line, and really at 8/1 or higher I think he's a bet. He has set fairly slow paces on the lead in his last two dominating wins, but he has the pedigree to relish the 9 furlongs and ran some big speed figures in those races despite the slow early fractions.
#11 DISCREET LOVER is hopeless.
#10 SUNNY RIDGE ran admirably in the Haskell after a four-month break and has been off another 50 or so days since. Nine furlongs is probably further than he wants to run and he's always been just a cut below the best at this level.
#9 NYQUIST returns after the same break that SUNNY RIDGE had and figures to get back on a fast track, over which he is 7-for-7 lifetime. The supposed "style change" they're looking to pull off here gives me some pause, but he does appear the horse to beat and would be a decent value at 5/2.
#8 MY MAN SAM remains eligible for an N2L race after seven starts. That said, his Travers no-show was his first truly "bad" race since his first. There's enough intrigue to warrant a saver bet at 20/1 or inclusion in exotics, and he does reunite with Leparoux, who guided him to his second-place finish in the Blue Grass.
#7 GUN RUNNER ran a huge race from post #13 in the Travers and earned a 108 speed figure because of it. If you draw a line through his off-track starts, the Derby and Travers are the only races he hasn't won, and he was third in both of those. But he has also been soundly defeated in both of those races, so I think at this point he is just a cut below the best this class has to offer and at 6/1 I would avoid.
#6 WILD ABOUT DEB is lightly raced enough to have still not hit his best race, and he ran on well late in the Smarty Jones. That said, he couldn't win, and he moves way up in class here.
#5 CUPID is 3-for-3 in Grade 3 races this year and has been dominating the races GUN RUNNER probably should have been running in. He has also been mostly unchallenged on these leads, so despite running them fairly quickly, I wouldn't get too excited about his record. I don't think he'll get away unchallenged in this one and I'm not entirely sold on him going nine furlongs.
#4 CONNECT was a terrible bet in the Travers (I remember saying that his morning line of 4/1, I think?, was the worst morning line I had ever seen) at 10/1, but he's a bit intriguing cutting back here and getting Castellano back aboard. I actually don't have a great explanation for why I kind of like him, but it just sort of feels right at 12/1.
#3 SUMMER REVOLUTION stretches out after DREFONG cotton candied his ass in the King's Bishop. His sire, SUMMER BIRD, of course won the Belmont, but I'm not exactly sold on the damside getting him nine furlongs. He does get Mike Smith aboard, but I mostly see his role as a speed killer (see CUPID).
#2 EXAGGERATOR will finally have to prove that he's as good on a fast track as he is on a wet track. The Travers was a debacle from the get-go and who knows what happened in the Belmont, but unless Parx is very speed-favoring on Saturday, this race will set up perfectly for him with a bunch of speed. He should be able to drop back, extricate himself from the rail on the backstretch and make his typical huge middle move. Shortening back up is almost certainly a good thing for him, too. And yet, accepting 9/2 odds in a deep field on a horse that's 2-for-9 lifetime on fast tracks is hard to swallow for me.
#1 AWESOME SLEW got away with a slow pace and powered home to win the Smarty Jones here by seven lengths. He was beaten by 32 lengths at odds of 32/1 in the Haskell and think he should be about those same odds here, not 10/1.
So, win bets: HIT IT ONCE MORE, NYQUIST, CONNECT
Exotics: Above 3 + EXAGGERATOR, MY MAN SAM
THE 2016 COTILLION
#1 CARINA MIA eyeballed SONGBIRD at the top of the stretch in the CCA Oaks and just for a moment, I thought she was going to run by. But she clearly tired late, and she subsequently backed off to run third as the even money favorite last out in the Grade 1 Ballerina. This 1 1/16 trip figures to be her best distance, and we could see a repeat of what we did in the CCA Oaks ... only the wire will come nearly two furlongs sooner this time -- you know, when they were neck and neck.
#2 CATHRYN SOPHIA has been very good throughout her career, but she's also been somewhat handled with kid gloves and has failed in her two toughest tests -- the Grade 1 Ashland back in April and the Grade 1 Acorn in June (note: I don't think the Kentucky Oaks was a very tough field). I think she's an underlay at 5/2.
#3 DISCO ROSE has no shot.
#4 LAND OVER SEA is only interesting from the perspective of some insane speed duel where CARINA MIA and CATHRYN SOPHIA take their shots at SONGBIRD and soften her up late. In this regard it potentially reminds me of the Grade 1 Ashland where WEEP NO MORE swept by CARINA MIA and CATHRYN SOPHIA after they laid down swift early fractions. That said, she is 1-for-12 lifetime on a fast track and a huge underlay at anything near 10/1 against a horse like SONGBIRD.
#5 SONGBIRD is going to win, right? She has been pressured early and doesn't come home absolutely super-strong, but she runs most horses off their feet. I have enough questions to not back her at 1/9, but if you do, it's hard to fault you.
#6 QUEENA ESTHER is probably getting her owners some nice tickets comped for them. She has no shot.
Win bet: CARINA MIA