I won't get particularly deep into the details -- those of you who are reading this likely know the details, anyway -- but my general involvement in horse racing is probably less than 10% of what it was a year ago. For those who don't know, let's just say that some horse-related opportunities dried up, and some other non-horse opportunities presented themselves.
That said ... this is still THE KENTUCKY DERBY. The race demands a preview.
So, WELCOME to my *16th* annual Kentucky Derby preview.
In any horse race, anything can happen. In a 20 horse field consisting of 3-year-olds running a distance they've never run before against a number of horses they've never run against before in front of a crowd they've never run in front of before, the conventional wisdom would be that TRULY anything can happen.
That logic has been borne out over the last five years, with the shortest priced winner paying $18.80 on a $2 bet (AUTHENTIC at 8-1 in 2020), and two winners that paid over $100 (COUNTRY HOUSE paid $132.40 at 65-1 in 2019, and RICH STRIKE paid $163.60 at 80-1 in 2022).
However, in the six years prior to that, no winner paid MORE than $12.80 to win -- that being ORB at 5-1 in 2013.
So what, you say? No, I'm not going to opine on any Derby-related trends. My point is this: Any of these horses COULD win this race. The only way to determine which horse(s) to bet on is by setting your own probabilities first, and then making bets based on your best guess as to what the off odds will actually be.
In other words, if you think something -- anything, really -- is worth $8, you're a buyer at $7 and a seller at $9. If you think a horse should be 15/1, you're a bettor at 20/1 and looking elsewhere at 12/1. That's it.
The hard part about the Derby is that the favorite-longshot bias can be ... extra insane, to put it in scientific terms. Everyone wants to MAKE A SCORE on Derby Day, and there's also an incredible amount of money in the pools that is completely uninformed -- MY BOY JACK and PATCH come to mind as horses that were extreme underlays due to their name in the former example, and having only one eye in the latter. But even ignoring those massive underlays, horses like COUNTRY HOUSE and RICH STRIKE might have been >99-1 if the race wasn't called the Kentucky Derby and all sorts of people who don't bet on any other horse races the entire year weren't trying to MAKE A SCORE.
ANYHOO, in the absence of any deeper analysis this year -- there will be no trip handicapping occurring, or very little at least -- I'm essentially going to list the horses in order of least likely winner to most likely winner based on a system that I've developed over the years. No, I will not provide many further details here, other than to say that it takes in some information, and then spits out probabilities, projected off odds, and all sorts of other fun things for any given race. Here goes:
20TH: WEST SARATOGA (PP #13, MY FAIR ODDS 162/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 56/1): This horse *did* win the Iroquois at this track in a fast-paced Grade 3 last September; however, he hasn't won since then in four tries, and hasn't run a speed figure that puts him anywhere near what is typically required to win the Derby.
19TH: GRAND MO THE FIRST (PP #16, MY FAIR ODDS 125/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 74/1): Has finished third in four straight races, but with speed figures not even close to good enough. Hard pass.
18TH: EPIC RIDE (PP #21, MY FAIR ODDS 102/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 45/1): Actually ran a pretty decent race in the Blue Grass, finishing third after sitting close to a pretty hot pace. At the same time, he was on the outside looking in until the scratch of ENCINO for a reason; he was also a 51/1 longshot in that Blue Grass race for a reason. Not impossible, of course, but not a good bet, either.
17TH: CATALYTIC (PP #5, MY FAIR ODDS 99/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 45/1): The Derby will be his fourth lifetime start, and with a lightly raced horse like that, there's always the possibility that they can improve quite a bit. Additionally, he has shown a decent pattern of steady improvement speed figure wise, and ran second all the way around to runaway winner FIERCENESS. On the other hand, the best horse he beat was the aforementioned GRAND MO THE FIRST, and while there's a little bit of intrigue, I'd need much higher odds to act on that.
16TH: SOCIETY MAN (PP #20, MY FAIR ODDS 63/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 22/1): He ran a nice race in the Wood, earning a 102 speed figure in his second-place finish, but I don't totally buy that -- and it must be said he sat a virtually perfect trip and still couldn't get it done. I actually like CATALYTIC better than SOCIETY MAN from an upside perspective, despite my system ranking the former worse.
15TH: DOMESTIC PRODUCT (PP #15, MY FAIR ODDS 53/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 22/1): Won the zombie Tampa Bay Derby, so named by me for being run without wagering due to massive tote problems. Prior to that, he ran second in the Holy Bull, a race in which he beat FIERCENESS. However, he's been on the shelf since March 9th, and it's certainly difficult to like him at anywhere near 20/1 -- particularly because his one off track performance was a well-beaten seventh in the Remsen.
14TH: JUST STEEL (PP #6, MY FAIR ODDS 53/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 22/1): Ran second by just two lengths to MUTH in the Arkansas Derby despite being wide on both turns; and MUTH is a serious racehorse. However, he's only won twice in 11 lifetime starts, with neither of those wins coming in routes despite five cracks at it. I half-respect Lukas running this horse without a break for 12 straight starts (the Derby will be the 12th, and I have zero doubt that he'll run again in the Preakness if he runs well); I also half think it's absolutely foolish. Either way, he'll go off at odds that are too low given his established record to date.
13TH: T O PASSWORD (PP #10, MY FAIR ODDS 45/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 37/1): I generally don't know what to do with most Japanese horses, and this one is certainly no different. He's undefeated in two starts and certainly bred for the distance, and he outworked a horse who really impressed people on Oaks Day (T O SAINT DENIS, who nearly stole the Alysheba on the front end at odds of 27/1). On the other hand, the best I can gather is that the race he won to qualify for the Derby was probably equivalent to the Sam F. Davis in America, which ... ain't great, you guys. I also think he'll go off at much lower odds than even projected here given the showing from T O SAINT DENIS, and he'll probably end up overbet for me.
12TH: DORNOCH (PP #1, MY FAIR ODDS 29/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 37/1): Remsen winners have generally been horrrrrible in the Kentucky Derby, and to be fair this guy has the absolute wrong kind of trajectory. After winning the Remsen in *very* gritty fashion -- he came back on SIERRA LEONE after being headed -- he won the Fountain of Youth comfortably at odds of 1/5. At that point, he looked like the possible Derby favorite; however, the shine came off with an ugly looking trip and effort in the Blue Grass, where he finished fourth at odds of 5/2. Still, draw a line through that one and he's maybe 8/1? And even with that one on the page, I think my fair odds are a much better estimation of his chances in reality.
11TH: HONOR MARIE (PP #7, MY FAIR ODDS 25/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 28/1): Came on nicely late in the Louisiana Derby, gobbling up ground but falling short. He did also win at Churchill last fall, but ran poorly in two off track starts to date. I have also never heard of either the jockey nor the trainer, which is prettttty rare for me. They could both be great and they just generally traffic at tracks I don't play, but ... I'll tip my hat if they beat me despite my system saying there could be some very minimal value.
10TH: MYSTIK DAN (PP #3, MY FAIR ODDS 24/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 28/1): Absolutely freaked in the Southwest, moving into a relatively slow pace and running off to win by eight lengths. Followed that up with a relative meh showing in the Arkansas Derby, running third at odds of 4/1. Did he bounce? OR did he just like the off track he got in the Southwest that much? Either way, there's reason enough to be optimistic that he will run a better race here at a price.
9TH: ENDLESSLY (PP #14, MY FAIR ODDS 24/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 28/1): Has never run on dirt! Won a couple lower-level Derby preps on artificial surfaces and has won every race in his career other than the BC Juvenile Turf last fall. The popular opinion is that the Churchill dirt surface is generally kinder on otherwise turf-meant horses, but I don't trust that logic nor my system given these parameters enough here to think that the possible minimal value is really there.
8TH: RESILIENCE (PP #19, MY FAIR ODDS 24/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 28/1): Took four tries to break his maiden, then ran fourth in the Risen Star on a sloppy track. Won the Wood with kind of a textbook good trip, but the best horse he beat was SOCIETY MAN. The Wood, you have may have heard, definitely ain't what she used to be. The speed figure was nice, but all of those Aqueduct figures seem inflated; here again, I am not convinced any slight value actually exists, especially with a forwardly placed horse from the 19 post.
7TH: STRONGHOLD (PP #18, MY FAIR ODDS 19/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 18/1): Your Santa Anita Derby this year gives me some I'LL HAVE ANOTHER vibes. That year had some really fun horses in training, and my memory is that the Santa Anita Derby winner was simply overlooked. He went off at 15/1 if memory serves, but gobbled up ground late to catch BODEMEISTER and make me a loser. STRONGHOLD beat well-regarded IMAGINATION in the SA Derby this year, and beat a few fellow Derby starters RESILIENCE and TRACK PHANTOM in breaking his maiden at Churchill last fall. He's raced at six different tracks in his six starts, so he might be a bit more seasoned than others? This is one I won't overlook -- if he's in this neighborhood on the board, he'll be on my ticket. I like that he's shown the tactical speed to sit close enough to avoid traffic troubles, but yet doesn't need the lead by any means.
6TH: TRACK PHANTOM (PP #12, MY FAIR ODDS 17/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 37/1): The biggest theoretical overlay based on my system is this guy, the winner of the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He followed those two efforts up with a half-length loss to SIERRA LEONE in the Risen Star, and then ran fourth as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby. Still, he ran three times at Churchill last fall, including once on a sloppy track, and the only time he missed the board came in the Louisiana Derby. Maybe the main concern is that the generally agreed upon best horse in the field, FIERCENESS, is also a horse that has done his best running near or on the lead, and he's to his outside. Oh, and TRACK PHANTOM is getting blinkers put on, which is kind of wild for a horse that has already been all about speed ... but still, this is worth a shot at bigly odds.
5TH: JUST A TOUCH (PP #8, MY FAIR ODDS 14/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 13/1): We've now reached the portion of our program where it's about 60 percent likely we find our winner. This guy has run second in his past two races, but the Blue Grass where he hung around despite being right on a brisk pace of :46 2/5 and 1:10 4/5 is the one that has stamped him as a serious contender here. Brad Cox being his trainer, too, doesn't hurt matters. He didn't race until January 27th, but his daddy, JUSTIFY, broke Apollo's curse, and so we generally don't seem to care about it anymore. He could certainly win, but I pretty much think my system is spot on here -- he does probably win this once every 15 times. From a trip perspective, I also worry about him being shuffled back into the field when he hasn't had to deal with that kind of traffic previously, but yet going forward could be absolutely suicidal with the speed outside of him.
4TH: CATCHING FREEDOM (PP #4, MY FAIR ODDS 11/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 11/1): Another Cox-trained horse, this one a last-out winner of the Louisiana Derby. He sat last early before rallying around the turn into fourth and ultimately beating HONOR MARIE by a length. Most Cox horses don't run like this, and his Louisiana Derby was a big speed figure jump from the Risen Star (where TRACK PHANTOM finished ahead of him). I feel like my system has this guy a bit low -- he seems less likely than JUST A TOUCH, at a minimum -- as many questions remain for me.
3RD: FOREVER YOUNG (PP #11, MY FAIR ODDS 11/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 9/1): Another Japanese horse, but this one not only won three starts at two last year in Japan, he also went on the road to win the Saudi Derby and the UAE Derby this spring. Of all the horses I've seen on the Derby Trail -- and again, it's not what it has been in past years, but still -- this is the only guy who really made my jaw drop. The Japanese have been getting closer and closer to figuring this race out, and I think this could be the one that finally does it.
2ND: SIERRA LEONE (PP #2, MY FAIR ODDS 4/1, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 3/1): A Chad Brown dirt horse may be the Derby favorite! He's a stone cold closer like many of Brown's turf horses, and the pace scenario in this race would seem to set up very nicely for him. But man, a lot of things need to go right to get through a 20 horse field unscathed, and this guy hasn't been better than ninth or closer than sixth lengths at the first call of his last three races. Running on an off track shouldn't bother him -- he's won on it -- but I do not want any part of a closer at these odds on this track.
1ST: FIERCENESS (PP #17, MY FAIR ODDS 7/2, PROJECTED OFF ODDS 3/1): I had a very nice hit with this guy in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last fall, so he holds a special spot in my heart for that. However, Juvenile winners have only won the Kentucky Derby twice. Additionally, this guy has a bit of a curious bouncing habit -- he started his career with a bang at Saratoga last summer, running off the page in an 11 length win on a muddy track. Then he finished seventh in the Champagne on a sloppy track. Then he won the BC Juvenile, but came back with a flat effort in the Holy Bull, where he ran third at odds of 1/5. He got back on track in the Florida Derby, dominating in a 13-length win over, well, CATALYTIC and GRAND MO THE FIRST. He's certainly a nice horse, but with the aforementioned pace concerns and these other less than impressive components of his record, I'm not convinced he deserves to even be 7/2, much less 3/1.
=================
If your reaction to that block of text was I AIN'T READING ALL THAT, below is a more specific breakdown. The horses that I will likely look to bet in some fashion -- as long as they are indeed somewhat close to my fair/estimated odds listed above -- are:
FOREVER YOUNG
TRACK PHANTOM
STRONGHOLD
MYSTIK DAN
DORNOCH
If all goes to plan, TRACK PHANTOM and DORNOCH will get away well and be forwardly placed together, but yet not absolutely destroy each other on the front end. It wouldn't hurt if FIERCENESS had problems away from the gate.
STRONGHOLD will use some tactical speed away from the gate and be able to get an outside tracking trip, say 5th or 6th, 2-4 lengths off the lead.
FOREVER YOUNG and MYSTIK DAN will find themselves midpack, maybe even side by side as things settle.
SIERRA LEONE and CATCHING FREEDOM will run into traffic problems, leaving them with too much left to do by the time they finally get clear. And the ambitious route to get JUST A TOUCH here will finally catch up to him in a dull effort.
Final dream prediction:
WIN: FOREVER YOUNG
PLACE: STRONGHOLD
SHOW: TRACK PHANTOM
4TH: MYSTIK DAN
5TH: DORNOCH
Good luck!