THE 2018 BREEDERS' CUP
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE: Not a bad day -- following my suggested bets and sizing listed below, you would have lost $8.60. I did not follow my own advice and ended up losing more than that, mostly due to not betting as much on LINE OF DUTY since he was bet down to 7/2. Oh well.
I've added previews and plays for all of Saturday's BC races under the Classic preview below. Good luck!
It's finally here.
The Breeders' Cup is back at Churchill Downs in 2018, and apparently the weather is even going to cooperate for us -- it looks like we'll be fast and good (maybe firm eventually) both today and tomorrow, which is a minor upset (although the turf will have some give in it early on today).
Since I know most people that bothered to click through are here for a Breeders' Cup Classic preview, I'll start with that, and then go into capsules for all the other races over the next two days below that.
Without further ado ...
BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC
I was fairly sour on this field a month ago, but I’ve come around to really appreciate it. It certainly doesn’t live up to the star power we’ve had in past years, but there is literally only one horse that would *really* surprise me: sorry, LONE SAILOR. The problem I do have with this race is that the morning line seems … pretty spot on, unfortunately. While I’m inclined to play against the chalk in most cases, the morning line order of ACCELERATE-WEST COAST-MCKINZIE-MIND YOUR BISCUITS-CATHOLIC BOY is almost exactly how I would have pegged it, so I don't think it offers a great deal of wagering value.
That said, this is a big race deserving of a post-by-post breakdown -- and of course I'm going to bet it, anyway. If you haven't seen this before, the way I operate here is that I look at each horse as if the race was already run, and what we would say after the fact if he won and if he lost, and then deliver my overall summary of what to do with the horse. Official plays are at the bottom, so here goes!
True Shockers
14) #5 LONE SAILOR, 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll say that the race must have completely fallen apart.
If he loses … We’ll say, well, duh. The Oklahoma Derby was a weak race and it set up *perfectly* for him, and he could only barely win it in a photo. Oh, and despite hitting the board in 9-of-14 lifetime starts, he only has one placing in three lifetime starts at Churchill.
In short … My jaw would drop if he won.
13) #12 AXELROD, 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll say we should have put more credence into that 110 BRIS figure he put up in a two-length defeat to MCKINZIE in the Pa. Derby, and that obviously he’s the very definition of a 3-year-old steadily improving. Between wins in the Indiana Derby and Smarty Jones and that second-place finish, he was clearly amping up for bigger and better things.
If he loses … The Pa. Derby figure was a fluke and prior to that he hadn’t been nearly quick enough to run with these. The pedigree looked pretty iffy for the stretch out to 10 furlongs, and he only sold for $25,000 for a reason.
In short … I say this one wouldn’t shock me because he did run tough against MCKINZIE, but the reality is that he would still shock me.
On Their Best Days
12) #8 PAVEL, 20/1:
If he wins … We’ll point to him as a Churchill specialist and say his Stephen Foster win was obviously a sign that he’d be primed to run big in the Classic.
If he loses … He’s run against ACCELERATE three times this year and has been defeated by steadily growing margins -- 4.5 lengths in February, 9.5 lengths in May, and 12 lengths in August. He only has three wins and five top-three finishes in 11 lifetime starts, and other than the Stephen Foster (in which he defeated non-factors HONORABLE DUTY and MATROOH), he hasn’t ever been particularly competitive against grade 1 competition. And this field, weak as it may be, is no Stephen Foster.
In short … the only way I see him winning is if he really does just love Churchill … but even then, his speed figure in that race may not be good enough to beat these.
11) #13 DISCREET LOVER, 20/1:
If he wins … Another wow story. In his 37th lifetime start back in April, this 5-year-old won a Grade 3 at Aqueduct. At odds ranging from 12-1 to 79-1 in his seven starts since, he added a few third-place finishes in graded races before finally popping off in the Gold Cup at 45-1. And that was a legitimate win, too -- while they did fly through fractions of :45 ⅗ and 1:09, DISCREET LOVER actually made up 8.5 lengths in that “middle” fraction -- so while the leaders ran that segment of the race in :23 ⅖, he ran it, ostensibly, in closer to :22! (Not sure I buy this, but this is the “if he wins” piece.) Either way, he was 15 lengths back (ostensibly) through a first call run in :45 ⅗, which means he ran that half mile in about 48 seconds and came home faster than 1:12 for a final clocking of 1:59 ⅘. That kind of run could absolutely win the Classic.
If he loses … It’s incredibly unclear where *that* came from in his 44th lifetime start, and the BC will be his 10th start since March 17 -- that’s a lot of racing in this day and age, and a particularly tough ask to run back-to-back lifetime bests. Finally, time aside, the Gold Cup may have not been that strong once DIVERSIFY bowed out, as THUNDER SNOW and MENDELSSOHN have yet to win a race of importance in America; DISCREET LOVER just picked up the pieces.
In short … If he runs that Gold Cup race again, he could well win, but if you missed that wedding at 45-1, don’t come for the funeral.
10) #1 THUNDER SNOW, 12/1:
If he wins … we’ll point out that the Jockey Club Gold Cup showed that his run in Dubai wasn’t a total fluke, and that he trounced WEST COAST by 5.5 lengths in that prior meeting. Money don’t lie, and his lifetime winnings of ~$8.5 million said it all.
If he loses … we’ll point out that he had the quinnessential perfect trip in the Gold Cup and still got run down by a 46-1 shot. That his Dubai World Cup win (and the associated winnings) were a fluke due to the speed-favoring nature of the track. And that, oh yeah, he completely freaked out the last time he tried to run a race here in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, and that expecting him to move on from that was too much to ask.
In short … that Dubai race was over once he got a clear lead, and I have no idea how he didn’t seal the deal in the Gold Cup. He belongs here, no doubt, but he’s quite a ways down my list.
9) #4 GUNNEVERA, 20/1:
If he wins … We’ll say that his long break after the Dubai trip clearly served him well, as he had a couple nice tune-ups with an OC win in August and a second-place run as the favorite in the Travers. That his back class shone through against this generally second-tier field, and that he was due for a big win -- and that getting Irad Ortiz aboard rather than Edgar Zayas clearly moved him forward.
If he loses … We’ll say that despite decent efforts in big races, his two wins in his last 10 starts came at much lower levels than this lofty one, and he’s never really been all that close in the bigger races he’s tried. And, really, he had absolutely no excuse for not beating YOSHIDA in the Woodward -- they were essentially next to each other the entire race and got the perfect pace setup.
In short … I backed this guy in last year’s Classic, but ultimately I just don’t think he belongs at this level. He’s a G2/G3 sort if you want to get him in the winner’s circle.
8) #9 MENDELSSOHN, 12/1:
If he wins … We’ll note he showed real improvement in his speed figures in the Travers and Gold Cup, and that the Gold Cup was particularly impressive as he pressed a fast pace and still hung around late while DIVERSIFY, the possible Classic favorite if he hadn’t struggled so badly in that race, wilted. He paired speed figures in those two races, too, giving him the potential for further improvement.
If he loses … the Travers almost doesn’t count with the way the track was playing, and he got beat by a 46-1 longshot and THUNDER SNOW in the Gold Cup. He’s 0-for-3 lifetime going 10 furlongs, and his sole race at Churchill was a disaster.
In short … I’ve warmed on him some from earlier this year, but between the pace and the fact that I really don’t think he’s beaten much of anyone yet, he won’t get any of my money Saturday.
Overrated Reasonable Contenders
7) #10 YOSHIDA, 10/1:
If he wins … I should have stuck with him! He gave me one of my best wins of the year on Derby day in the Turf Classic, and as a grandson of SUNDAY SILENCE, I should have known he would take to the dirt and that the Woodward was no fluke. Jose Ortiz getting aboard for Rosario was a net positive, and Bill Mott can bring them to big days with the best of them. Plus, his late kick on a turf-friendly dirt course should have played well.
If he loses … He’s never run at 10 furlongs, and the damside pedigree isn’t great for distance. The Woodward was a nightmare cavalry charge turning for home, and while his late kick was clearly strong to get him home, it wasn’t the kind of race to write home about. If the track isn’t fast, his mud pedigree appears awful.
In short … I’m not confident the horse is good enough to win against this group; and maybe good enough isn’t the right word, but fast enough. Yes, the race could fall apart and his late kick is certainly plenty strong to get it done, but I generally feel like he’s a lesser horse than ROARING LION at half the price.
6) #11 MIND YOUR BISCUITS, 6/1:
If he wins … What a transformation he’ll have made. To win the Dubai Golden Shaheen going six furlongs in March to winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic going 10 furlongs in November would be absolutely incredible. And he had a very impressive tune-up in the Grade 3 Lukas Classic at Churchill on Sept. 29, winning by nearly five lengths and posting a lifetime best speed figure of 109. And he did it while running honest fractions all the way, sitting just off the lead and essentially posting :12 furlongs the whole race, giving him a strong 109 late pace figure -- which typically would tell you he can go longer.
If he loses … Nine furlongs is one thing, 10 is another. That pedigree is just not that of a classic winner, and if he wins to run his lifetime earnings past $7 million, his owner’s $47,000 investment will go down as one of the all-time great investments. Despite his impressive reputation, he’s just 2-for-8 in his previous American starts, and his closest competition in the Lukas was TOAST OF NEW YORK making his third start since coming off of a three-year layoff, and his first start in eight months after that.
In short … It would be a cool story if he wins, but 6/1 seems like a bad bet to me.
5) #3 CATHOLIC BOY, 8/1:
If he wins … We’ll note he had very reasonable excuses for his only two losses of the year -- one being a close loss after a layoff in his first three-year-old start and the other being when he bled in the Florida Derby. We’ll applaud his Travers win after two extremely gritty wins on dirt over well-regarded ANALYZE IT. And we’ll say he had the best in the game on his back, Javier Castellano, to guide him to a third straight win going 10 furlongs.
If he loses … we’ll say that the Travers day track was extremely speed-biased, and ANALYZE IT is the worst kind of hanger. Beyond that, the Travers field was middling at best, with Derby also-ran MENDELSSOHN running second after also on the lead. Finally, that his preferred on-pace running style wasn’t going to be preferred in a race with this much apparent pace.
In short … his wins over ANALYZE IT were some of the coolest things I’ve seen all year, but that Travers race was very much aided by a speed-biased track, and he still hasn’t faced older horses. I liked him at first blush, but upon further review, I do believe he’ll be an underlay, and I’ll try to beat him.
The Big Question Mark
4) #2 ROARING LION, 20/1:
If he wins … we’ll say four straight grade one wins at the highest level in Europe figured to translate pretty nicely to a turf-friendly dirt course in America, and that his 2-for-2 mark in starts at 10 furlongs also should have told us something. That the recent success of turf-to-dirt horses like YOSHIDA was an indictment of the state of our older classic horses here in America, and that if YOSHIDA could do it, so could ROARING LION with STREET SENSE as his damside sire.
If he loses … We’ll say that KITTEN’S JOY is known as a turf sire for a reason, and we should have known that the kickback at Churchill was too much.
In short … As stated earlier, I think you can make a reasonable case for almost the entire field to win this race; on the other hand, you cannot make a reasonable case that most of these horses are truly the best horses in the race. With ROARING LION, you can, and we might get a good price because we just don’t know what he might be capable of on dirt. His stride doesn’t look OVERLY turfy -- he’s not chopping the ground with his front legs -- so I’m willing to take a small shot here.
Deserving Favorites
3) #14 ACCELERATE, 5/2:
If he wins … He’s won 5-of-6 and is the morning line favorite in this race for a reason. He had a rough start in the Awesome Again, but he overcame that without much problem and moved into a brisk early pace, then put away WEST COAST with ease at the top of the stretch. His previous five speed figures have been good enough to win this race, and it’s the year of Sadler.
If he loses … We took a short price on a horse who hasn’t beaten anyone better than WEST COAST off a long layoff and … PAVEL, I guess? Rosario is a great finisher but he’s a cut below the best of the best. Finally, he hasn’t been successful outside of California, and this isn’t California.
In short … I don’t have a very solid reason to go against ACCELERATE other than that he hasn’t faced a field the likes of this before, and the previous strongest field he tried was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, when he finished ninth. All that said, he does strike me as one of the most likely winners, but I don’t know that I want to take a short price on his likelihood to beat the kind of horses he hasn’t beaten before.
2) #7 WEST COAST, 5/1:
If he wins … We should have known that his back class would shine through when given the chance to put two races together without a layoff. Johnny V. was a basically even replacement for Mike Smith, and Baffert had him expertly prepped for a peak effort after he ran at 75% in the Awesome Again.
If he loses … We’ll note that he was only 1-for-3 at the 10 furlong distance, and that he not only hadn’t won in 2018 -- he actually hasn’t beaten older horses since running against them in his second lifetime start, an optional claimer in May 2017. And the whole Mike Smith off thing … how did we ignore that?
In short … Yeah, I can’t ignore Mike Smith off. I do believe the pace could set up well for him, and Johnny V. is no slouch, but assuming the price is relatively the same as the morning line is, I couldn’t bet WEST COAST instead of MCKINZIE. Could I bet both, though? MAYBE.
1) #6 MCKINZIE, 6/1:
If he wins … We’ll remember how Baffert has won this race four of the last five years and thought this was the best horse in his stable earlier in the year, and how very close to undefeated MCKINZIE is. We’ll note how Mike Smith getting off of WEST COAST, no matter how they spun it as wanting to stick with a horse that will still run next year, had to say something in a $6 million race. And his last-out speed figure of 112 was the best in this field -- and in only his fifth lifetime race, off a six-month layoff, that spoke volumes about just how good he could be.
If he loses … We’ll say we should have known he would bounce off that huge speed figure, and that this was awfully deep water for his first try against older horses. Additionally, his forwardly-placed running style made things more difficult, and his pedigree was just a bit suspect in terms of getting 10 furlongs, so a short price was hard to take.
In short … I am worried about the pedigree going 10 furlongs and the bounce, but I cannot get past Smith getting off WEST COAST to stay on MCKINZIE -- there is no way he got off a better horse for the purposes of a future that’s not guaranteed.
The Plays
The Baffert horses seem to be the most likely winners, and if I have to make a choice, I’m going with the 3-year-old MCKINZIE. I do believe he’ll end up as the second choice, though, and I’m not sure there’s much value. I do see the value in ROARING LION, however, as I feel confident that he’s the best horse in the race if he takes to the surface.
$20 win on ROARING LION
$10 win on MCKINZIE
$2 exacta box ROARING LION wt MCKINZIE wt WEST COAST
BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT
As you would expect in any Breeders’ Cup sprint race, there are some quick early horses here. SELCOURT won three straight races to start the season, but she has been on the shelf since March 24 and 7 furlongs is a tough distance to come back from for any horse. Taking that along with Sadler traveling out of California and not being a top trainer on the comeback from a layoff makes her a pass. SHAMROCK ROSE is a longshot that I considered as she’s now won three straight and very well may be just an improving 3-year-old who is peaking at the right time -- and she has the preferred off-the-pace style here, but she still hasn’t run fast enough to win this race after nine career starts. MARLEY’S FREEDOM has now won four straight and is a deserving favorite for the duo of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, but I think she’s had relatively cushy trips in all of those starts and hasn’t really had to do anything impressive like press a fast pace or close into a slow pace. Some of that probably is due to her just being that good, but at likely odds-on I think it’s worth trying to beat her. FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM is 6-for-7 lifetime at Churchill, and her only loss was on a wet-fast track earlier this year. Unfortunately she had no real excuse in the Ballerina on Aug. 25, but that performance may ultimately give us the gift of 10/1 on her -- if you can stomach her going 7 furlongs (three of her four lifetime off-the-board finishes came going 7 furlongs). She’s one that likes it the faster they go, so she seems worth a shot. GOLDEN MISCHIEF is another that has won three straight and comes in off of a Grade 2 win in the TCA on Oct. 6. This is her first try at the top level, and what worries me about her is that she might simply not be able to keep up if they go too fast up front. I prefer HIGHWAY STAR, a horse that’s 3-2-0 in six lifetime starts at this distance and has consistently made a good account of herself. She had made good runs from everywhere against every kind of pace and gets Jose Ortiz aboard, so I’ll take a big swing here.
The plays: $20 win HIGHWAY STAR, $10 WIN FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM
BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT
There’s a surprising lack of speed in this 5.5-furlong race, and my gut tells me the 3-year-old WORLD OF TROUBLE may be the quickest one here, and he’s already won on good and yielding turf, which according to reports from Friday are about the true conditions at Churchill. He moves up in class quite a bit here, but this isn’t the strongest field that’s ever been assembled, and at 6/1 he looks the part. DISCO PARTNER is the best horse in the race and frankly I think he deserves to win this, but I don’t like the idea of him trying to chase down the leaders going just 5.5 furlongs (a distance DISCO PARTNER is only 1-0-4 at in five lifetime starts). The other two I considered are VISION PERFECT, an interesting horse that has only run 5 furlongs this year but had previously run a mile, and BUCCHERO, an honest type who just missed by a length in this race last year. VISION PERFECT gets Javier aboard for Servis and is my preference -- he appears to possess a little bit more natural early speed than DISCO PARTNER or BUCCHERO, and he’s 15-1 to boot. I’ll mention STORMY LIBERAL here in terms of why I’m playing against the defending champ -- I’m not convinced he’ll take to the somewhat soft going, and at 4/1, that’s not a chance I want to take.
The plays: $20 win WORLD OF TROUBLE, $10 win VISION PERFECT
BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE
What’s kind of sad about this race is that CATALINA CRUISER might actually be favored in the Classic if he was running there, but being a Sadler horse, he’s not going to pit him against ACCELERATE, unfortunately. Anyway, CATALINA CRUISER has looked like a monster to date, but horses like ISOTHERM, CITY OF LIGHT and TRIGGER WARNING have flashed very legitimate speed in the past, and the best horses CATALINA CRUISER has beaten to date are a long layoff BATTLE OF MIDWAY and DR. DORR. In short, I think you have to try to beat him. SEEKING THE SOUL has won his last two starts at Churchill and figures to benefit from a likely brisk early pace. ISOTHERM does intrigue me a bit as he ran a huge race in the Awesome Again and shortens back up to a mile, but that was a huge step forward for him and I have to wonder if a bounce is in play. Instead, GIANT EXPECTATIONS seems to be worth a shot here -- he didn’t have a good start in the Ack Ack yet still looked like a winner before hanging in the stretch; with a better start and in his second race off the layoff, he figures to sit a good midpack trip and potentially get first run on the leaders that I hope will start to fade. I just pray someone takes it to CATALINA CRUISER early and doesn’t let him walk the dog -- c’mon jocks!
The plays: $20 win GIANT EXPECTATIONS, $10 win SEEKING THE SOUL
BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF
Kind of a disappointing race; there's some decent star power at the top, but half of the field would appear to have virtually no chance. Five Chad Brown horses face off against a few Aiden O'Brien horses, and in that regard THAIS nearly held on in the Beverly D while administering a slow pace, and she could get away with a similar trip in this race, too. But stablemate SISTERCHARLIE won that one despite the slow pace, and I think stablemate FOURSTAR CROOK ran the best race overall there. Meanwhile, Johnny V. sticks with SISTERCHARLIE, making way for Javier Castellano on A RAVING BEAUTY, who has won both of her starts on good ground here in the U.S. and should be forwardly placed. WILD ILLUSION will likely be favored off of a Group 1 win at Longchamp last month, in which she beat MAGIC WAND by a length. Still, I liked MAGIC WAND prior to the reports about the turf today -- the amount of give in the course doesn’t seem to be good thing for her, as her best runs have come on firmer ground. Instead, I’m looking at longshot MOM’S ON STRIKE, who has run well on softer ground and comes in off a hard-fought second at Kentucky Downs in September, which should have built her stamina up for this run nicely while she adds blinkers.
The plays: $20 win A RAVING BEAUTY, $10 win MOM’S ON STRIKE
BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT
The scratch of X Y JET was huge as I believe it gives a big edge to the brilliantly fast PROMISES FULFILLED. Even before the scratch, I felt like PROMISES FULFILLED could outspring X Y JET to the lead, and now it looks to me like he could get loose early. That said, the rest of these are salty, too. LIMOUSINE LIBERAL is 6-for-8 lifetime and won the Churchill Downs sprint here going 7 furlongs earlier this year. WHITMORE is always dangerous and has been showing more speed recently, so he may not be too far back. Oh, and we have the defending champ ROY H and IMPERIAL HINT, the two actual favorites. I’m against IMPERIAL HINT because he’s 0-for-2 lifetime at Churchill and (through no fault of his own) hasn’t proven much with his wins against inferior competition, and I’m against ROY H for generally the same reason -- he hasn’t faced the likes of these. And, to be fair, I would expect DISTINCTIVE B to also impact the pace of the race ... but I really am not convinced anyone can run with PROMISES FULFILLED early, yet he could be the fifth-choice (I doubt it, but based on morning lines it could be close). In an otherwise seemingly inseparable field, the possibility of a clear early lead is too much to ignore. For my second horse, I’m going with WHITMORE -- if I’m wrong on PROMISES FULFILLED and he can’t clear, then the pace figures to be crazy … and WHITMORE is easily the best closer in the race.
The plays: $20 win PROMISES FULFILLED, $10 win WHITMORE
BREEDERS' CUP TURF MILE
It remains ridiculous to me that we give the DIRT Mile that label but the Mile is just known to be on turf. Yes, I get the traditionalist take, but I’m sticking with calling it the TURF Mile. The scratch of POLYDREAM, the already wide-open morning line favorite at 5/1, makes this race even more of a crapshoot. The Euros don’t look all that overwhelming in this one, surprisingly -- I CAN FLY, EXPERT EYE and LIGHTNING SPEAR are the three that look the best to me, but they don’t have to win. ANALYZE IT and NEXT SHARES are the two Americans I’m considering most heavily, and they come out of the same race -- NEXT SHARES won the Grade 1 Shadwell at 23/1 while ANALYZE IT faded to fourth under Johnny V. as the 2/1 favorite. I like ANALYZE IT to turn the tables -- he’s absolutely a hanger/lazy/whatever, but he figures to either be on the lead or just off of OSCAR PERFORMANCE, and by all accounts he’s horribly underachieved this year as Chad Brown had talked him up as the next coming earlier in the season. As for the Euros, I CAN FLY is the now horse as she comes in off a narrowly-beaten second to ROARING LION in the Queen Elizabeth, while LIGHTNING SPEAR had a streak of second-third-first in three straight Group 1 races this summer before tailing off some this fall. The former is 10/1, the latter is 20/1. And then there’s EXPERT EYE, who is 8/1 under Frankie Dettori. I think that’s an unfortunately adept morning line, as I do prefer EXPERT EYE out of the group.
The plays: $20 win ANALYZE IT, $10 win EXPERT EYE
BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF
I am against MONOMOY GIRL here. Even though she's 2-for-2 at the 9 furlong distance, I've always felt the mile or 1 1/16 mile distance was better for her, and I didn't like how she drifted in the stretch of the Cotillion last-out. Even though I can't take much away from her as MIDNIGHT BISOU just ran huge to run her down that day, she really had no excuse to not win after setting splits of :48 3/5 and 1:13. There are other pace players here, and while that could just mean she gets her preferred stalking trip, I prefer others. VERVE'S TALE is intriguing from that pace perspective, and while she was beaten rather soundly by WOW CAT in the Beldame, I wouldn't mind long odds for her to turn the tables here. I do also like WOW CAT in that regard as she is now 9-for-11 lifetime with her only "bad" race coming in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign back when she finished third, beaten ten lengths by the horse I originally believed was the most likely winner, ABEL TASMAN. Her Zenyatta was jaw droppingly bad, but she's done that before -- like this year in the La Troienne on Derby Day at Churchill. She bounced back from that to win the Ogden Phipps at odds on, though. It’s just hard to trust older females -- ROYAL DELTA is etched in mind that was so brilliant for a while and then just totally gave it up, and at a short price against a tough field, I’ll try to beat ABEL TASMAN. CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS is an outsider who stepped into graded competition for the first time in her 18th career start, and since then she's won a Grade 3, finished second by a nose in a Grade 3, and finished 3/4 lengths back after a tough trip in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland. She is another that could benefit from a pace that might get a bit wild as she's performed well *despite* not getting much pace in most of her races -- the only two races that she's had a faster-than-average pace for the level she's run at, she's won.
The plays: $20 win WOW CAT, $10 CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS, $5 VERVE’S TALE
BREEDERS' CUP TURF
ENABLE is pretty ridiculous. 9-for-10 lifetime with $8.5 million in earnings, it’s easy to make the case for her standing head and shoulders above this field. But she was all-out and barely held off SEA OF CLASS in the Arc last month, and I think by any measure her two races so far this year haven’t been quite up to her standard of last season. Now, that can be explained away by the long layoff, etc., but between that and the new style of racing, I have no problem trying to beat her at short odds. The most obvious option is WALDGEIST, beaten just two lengths by ENABLE in the Arc, but his best runs have been on truly soft ground -- I don’t think there’s that kind of cut in the turf at Churchill. MAGICAL has the same problem in my mind, so I’m actually going to look to the American group to pull an upset. CHANNEL MAKER, GLORIOUS EMPIRE, HI HAPPY and SADLER’S JOY are all worthy of consideration. SADLER’S JOY has had a frustrating year and while I like him, he’s probably not going to out-close the Euro contingent. The others are intriguing as all are forwardly-placed types, but GLORIOUS EMPIRE has really only gotten the job done when he was really able to walk the dog; I don’t think that will work here. CHANNEL MAKER has really come into his own late in the season here, and he’s shown the ability win both on the lead and off it, so he’s worth the upset shot. HI HAPPY is more speculative but if you draw a line through his Saratoga starts this year, he hasn’t finished worse than third and never beaten more than a length since moving to Pletcher’s barn.
The plays: $20 win CHANNEL MAKER, $10 win HI HAPPY
FRIDAY'S RACES:
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
I’ll start by saying I don’t understand how STRIKE SILVER is 4/1 on the morning line here; he looks like a decent colt, but he won his only turf start with almost a perfect setup against vastly inferior competition. In fact, I don’t see how any of the American colts can win here, unless you count SHANG SHANG SHANG, last-out winner of the G2 Norfolk at Ascot back in June. Coming off that kind of layoff against this kind of field at the fresh young age of 2 doesn’t appeal to me. QUEEN OF BERMUDA at 20/1 is relatively intriguing getting Flavien Prat aboard -- if the going is on the softer side, she might be worth a stab. SOLDIER’S CALL has every right to win but has made seven straight starts dating back to May and seems to do his best running near the lead in a race full of speed; in a race so hard to separate the top Euros, that’s enough for me to avoid. SERGEI PROKOFIEV had a relatively miserable trip in his last race, yet he ran by the rest of the field -- including WELL DONE FOX, who was also second to SOLDIER’S CALL in his prior race -- like they were standing still with a brilliant turn of foot. On the other hand, that was a Group 3 field -- weaker than he’ll face Friday -- and this $1.1 million horse was unsuccessful in previous Group 1 tries. Which brings us to SO PERFECT, the “other” O’Brien horse, a mere $400,000 purchase. She ran second, finishing ahead of SERGEI PROKOFIEV a few months ago in a race where both horses raced awfully rank in the early stages, but SO PERFECT gave a much better account of herself after settling. She was third beaten less than a length in her last race, a saucy group 1 at Newmarket, and at 12/1 seems to me to offer a lot of value -- and any time I can avoid betting on Ryan Moore, I absolutely will. SO PERFECT is the main play with SERGEI PROKOFIEV the backup.
The plays: $20 win SO PERFECT, $10 win SERGEI PROKOFIEV
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
The popular opinion here is that NEWSPAPEROFRECORD is a monster, and that may well be true. But the Grillo field and the maiden race she won prior to that were awfully weak, and while the track was yielding and on the slow side, I don’t think there was much to write home about even though he came home his final 5/16 in :29 ⅖ and posted a speed figure of 99. The rest of the Americans, including CONCRETE ROSE, have just been running against *such* inferior competition in comparison to the Euros -- obviously you can only beat that which you face, but I’m making the blanket move to toss all of the Americans here. The one that intrigues me the most is SUMMERING, as she comes in off three career starts in which she was favored in all; but she failed in her last start and the waters are deeper here. AS for the Euros, THE MACKEM BULLET stretches out for the first time and is already a fairy tale story to be here at all with her pedigree as an $11,000 purchase; after two narrow defeats in Group 2 and Group 1 races across the pond, the fairy tale can’t get any better, though. LILY’S CANDLE is similarly rags to riches ($17k purchase) and is fresh off a Group 1 win in France. JUST WONDERFUL comes in off a Group 2 win and should appreciate stretching back out to a mile here. I don’t understand why LA PELOSA is 15/1 on the morning line; she seems every bit the contender of any of the other Euro shippers, and she at least proved she can win while turning left at Woodbine with hot early fractions that you don’t necessarily see in Europe! EAST is like LA PELOSA in that I’m not sure why she’s 20/1 on the morning line; this daughter of FRANKEL sold for *only* $369k, but she’s undefeated in two starts, including a highly-rated Group 3 triumph in France last-out.
The plays: $20 win LA PELOSA, $10 win EAST
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES
The main question in this race is probably whether BELLAFINA will have any problems with the other speed signed on here, or if the race will fall apart up top and the back markers will be the ones to reckon with. A few horses that would be labeled as contenders but that I will toss right away due to that general premise are SERENGETI EMPRESS, VIBRANCE and JAYWALK -- BELLAFINA disposed of VIBRANCE with ease after dueling in their last race, and the other two simply haven’t seen that kind of West Coast speed to date, and I just don’t think they can compete on the front end. That said, there are three horses coming from the rear that intrigue -- the top three finishers in the Spinaway. The first is a probably hopeless longshot, but CASSIES DREAMER was beaten only two lengths by SIPPICAN HARBOR (and a neck by RESTLESS RIDER) in the Spinaway and then had a hopeless task of chasing down loose-on-the-lead JAYWALK in the Frizette but still finished a respectable third there. She would seemingly benefit from a pace meltdown and could be a huge price. RESTLESS RIDER was much closer to the pace in the Spinaway than either SIPPICAN HARBOR or CASSIES DREAMER but still held on that day -- and then she won the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland last-out. Finally, we come to SIPPICAN HARBOR, who for some reason is 12/1 on the morning line but in my view will likely go off closer to 5/1. Her turn of foot late was spectacular in the Spinaway and I believe she will get stronger as the race goes longer. But is that good enough to catch BELLAFINA? Post 10 could be a problem going 1 1/16 at Churchill, but more likely it just sets her up for a nice stalking trip while she keeps her nose clean. Plus, I’m not sure I need to know the answer to make money playing this race.
The plays: $20 win BELLAFINA, $10 win SIPPICAN HARBOR, $5 win CASSIES DREAMER
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF
Once again, the Euros are on a completely different level. The one American horse that seems intriguing is MUCH BETTER as he looks clearly fastest, and he could set sail and refuse to stop while running the bottom out of the hard-closing Euros. ARTHUR KITT drew the 1 hole and has no business being 20/1 here; his last race was a step back, though, and certainly gives some pause. LINE OF DUTY is a bit under the radar as well having only run in and won a Group 3 to date, but this $550k son of GALILEO is certainly capable of taking this down even if I would expect him to get better going longer. But those are window dressing to ANTHONY VAN DYCK, who is the current second choice for next year’s Investec Derby. His last race, though, gave me some pause -- even though he was running against better than he’ll see at the Breeders’ Cup, it wasn’t a move in the right direction and he appeared on the tired side -- and this will be his seventh race since July 1. The short price and the outside post and Ryan Moore all have me looking elsewhere, and I kind of like ARTHUR KITT, but he, too, wasn’t as good last-out (note: both ANTHONY VAN DYCK and ARTHUR KITT were beaten by TOO DARN HOT by four lengths in their previous (separate) races). All that said, I’ll try LINE OF DUTY of the Euro group. He’s clearly moving in the right direction and he’s 10/1. I will also indeed try MUCH BETTER as I do think he’s got a chance here -- Baffert on turf!
The plays: $20 win LINE OF DUTY, $10 win MUCH BETTER
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE
Juvenile races are always speed-laden; this one is kind of ridiculous. Only two horses have won a race PERIOD when being more than a length back at the second call: STANDARD DEVIATION and GAME WINNER. And since GAME WINNER has shown himself tactical enough to also win while right on the pace, that seems like a problem for the competition in this race. STANDARD DEVIATION, on the other hand, won a race from off the pace in an off-the-turf maiden at Saratoga, so while that doesn’t seem particularly impressive, I really think he’s going to benefit from being well off this likely sizzling pace, and the fact that Brown is running him at all against COMPLEXITY (although Brown is rarely shy about running his horses against each other) seems like a good sign to me that he believes this race will set up in a way to give STANDARD DEVIATION a puncher’s chance.
The plays: $20 win GAME WINNER, $10 win STANDARD DEVIATION
BREEDERS' CUP MARATHON
I'm still calling it a Breeders' Cup race because it should still be a Breeders’ Cup race in my opinion, and frankly maybe it still would be if it had drawn fields like this when it was! This is a fun race! ROCKETRY broke a track record going *almost* this long at Belmont last-out. BIG DOLLAR BILL was impressive going 12 furlongs back in early August at Saratoga. But I like DABSTER in this spot. I’ve liked him forever and so it may be a blind spot for me, but with his pedigree and his tactical speed, I think he’ll be forwardly placed and just keep on ticking off solid furlongs to victory.
The plays: $20 win DABSTER, $2 exacta box DABSTER wt ROCKETRY wt BIG DOLLAR BILL
I've added previews and plays for all of Saturday's BC races under the Classic preview below. Good luck!
It's finally here.
The Breeders' Cup is back at Churchill Downs in 2018, and apparently the weather is even going to cooperate for us -- it looks like we'll be fast and good (maybe firm eventually) both today and tomorrow, which is a minor upset (although the turf will have some give in it early on today).
Since I know most people that bothered to click through are here for a Breeders' Cup Classic preview, I'll start with that, and then go into capsules for all the other races over the next two days below that.
Without further ado ...
BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC
I was fairly sour on this field a month ago, but I’ve come around to really appreciate it. It certainly doesn’t live up to the star power we’ve had in past years, but there is literally only one horse that would *really* surprise me: sorry, LONE SAILOR. The problem I do have with this race is that the morning line seems … pretty spot on, unfortunately. While I’m inclined to play against the chalk in most cases, the morning line order of ACCELERATE-WEST COAST-MCKINZIE-MIND YOUR BISCUITS-CATHOLIC BOY is almost exactly how I would have pegged it, so I don't think it offers a great deal of wagering value.
That said, this is a big race deserving of a post-by-post breakdown -- and of course I'm going to bet it, anyway. If you haven't seen this before, the way I operate here is that I look at each horse as if the race was already run, and what we would say after the fact if he won and if he lost, and then deliver my overall summary of what to do with the horse. Official plays are at the bottom, so here goes!
True Shockers
14) #5 LONE SAILOR, 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll say that the race must have completely fallen apart.
If he loses … We’ll say, well, duh. The Oklahoma Derby was a weak race and it set up *perfectly* for him, and he could only barely win it in a photo. Oh, and despite hitting the board in 9-of-14 lifetime starts, he only has one placing in three lifetime starts at Churchill.
In short … My jaw would drop if he won.
13) #12 AXELROD, 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll say we should have put more credence into that 110 BRIS figure he put up in a two-length defeat to MCKINZIE in the Pa. Derby, and that obviously he’s the very definition of a 3-year-old steadily improving. Between wins in the Indiana Derby and Smarty Jones and that second-place finish, he was clearly amping up for bigger and better things.
If he loses … The Pa. Derby figure was a fluke and prior to that he hadn’t been nearly quick enough to run with these. The pedigree looked pretty iffy for the stretch out to 10 furlongs, and he only sold for $25,000 for a reason.
In short … I say this one wouldn’t shock me because he did run tough against MCKINZIE, but the reality is that he would still shock me.
On Their Best Days
12) #8 PAVEL, 20/1:
If he wins … We’ll point to him as a Churchill specialist and say his Stephen Foster win was obviously a sign that he’d be primed to run big in the Classic.
If he loses … He’s run against ACCELERATE three times this year and has been defeated by steadily growing margins -- 4.5 lengths in February, 9.5 lengths in May, and 12 lengths in August. He only has three wins and five top-three finishes in 11 lifetime starts, and other than the Stephen Foster (in which he defeated non-factors HONORABLE DUTY and MATROOH), he hasn’t ever been particularly competitive against grade 1 competition. And this field, weak as it may be, is no Stephen Foster.
In short … the only way I see him winning is if he really does just love Churchill … but even then, his speed figure in that race may not be good enough to beat these.
11) #13 DISCREET LOVER, 20/1:
If he wins … Another wow story. In his 37th lifetime start back in April, this 5-year-old won a Grade 3 at Aqueduct. At odds ranging from 12-1 to 79-1 in his seven starts since, he added a few third-place finishes in graded races before finally popping off in the Gold Cup at 45-1. And that was a legitimate win, too -- while they did fly through fractions of :45 ⅗ and 1:09, DISCREET LOVER actually made up 8.5 lengths in that “middle” fraction -- so while the leaders ran that segment of the race in :23 ⅖, he ran it, ostensibly, in closer to :22! (Not sure I buy this, but this is the “if he wins” piece.) Either way, he was 15 lengths back (ostensibly) through a first call run in :45 ⅗, which means he ran that half mile in about 48 seconds and came home faster than 1:12 for a final clocking of 1:59 ⅘. That kind of run could absolutely win the Classic.
If he loses … It’s incredibly unclear where *that* came from in his 44th lifetime start, and the BC will be his 10th start since March 17 -- that’s a lot of racing in this day and age, and a particularly tough ask to run back-to-back lifetime bests. Finally, time aside, the Gold Cup may have not been that strong once DIVERSIFY bowed out, as THUNDER SNOW and MENDELSSOHN have yet to win a race of importance in America; DISCREET LOVER just picked up the pieces.
In short … If he runs that Gold Cup race again, he could well win, but if you missed that wedding at 45-1, don’t come for the funeral.
10) #1 THUNDER SNOW, 12/1:
If he wins … we’ll point out that the Jockey Club Gold Cup showed that his run in Dubai wasn’t a total fluke, and that he trounced WEST COAST by 5.5 lengths in that prior meeting. Money don’t lie, and his lifetime winnings of ~$8.5 million said it all.
If he loses … we’ll point out that he had the quinnessential perfect trip in the Gold Cup and still got run down by a 46-1 shot. That his Dubai World Cup win (and the associated winnings) were a fluke due to the speed-favoring nature of the track. And that, oh yeah, he completely freaked out the last time he tried to run a race here in the 2017 Kentucky Derby, and that expecting him to move on from that was too much to ask.
In short … that Dubai race was over once he got a clear lead, and I have no idea how he didn’t seal the deal in the Gold Cup. He belongs here, no doubt, but he’s quite a ways down my list.
9) #4 GUNNEVERA, 20/1:
If he wins … We’ll say that his long break after the Dubai trip clearly served him well, as he had a couple nice tune-ups with an OC win in August and a second-place run as the favorite in the Travers. That his back class shone through against this generally second-tier field, and that he was due for a big win -- and that getting Irad Ortiz aboard rather than Edgar Zayas clearly moved him forward.
If he loses … We’ll say that despite decent efforts in big races, his two wins in his last 10 starts came at much lower levels than this lofty one, and he’s never really been all that close in the bigger races he’s tried. And, really, he had absolutely no excuse for not beating YOSHIDA in the Woodward -- they were essentially next to each other the entire race and got the perfect pace setup.
In short … I backed this guy in last year’s Classic, but ultimately I just don’t think he belongs at this level. He’s a G2/G3 sort if you want to get him in the winner’s circle.
8) #9 MENDELSSOHN, 12/1:
If he wins … We’ll note he showed real improvement in his speed figures in the Travers and Gold Cup, and that the Gold Cup was particularly impressive as he pressed a fast pace and still hung around late while DIVERSIFY, the possible Classic favorite if he hadn’t struggled so badly in that race, wilted. He paired speed figures in those two races, too, giving him the potential for further improvement.
If he loses … the Travers almost doesn’t count with the way the track was playing, and he got beat by a 46-1 longshot and THUNDER SNOW in the Gold Cup. He’s 0-for-3 lifetime going 10 furlongs, and his sole race at Churchill was a disaster.
In short … I’ve warmed on him some from earlier this year, but between the pace and the fact that I really don’t think he’s beaten much of anyone yet, he won’t get any of my money Saturday.
Overrated Reasonable Contenders
7) #10 YOSHIDA, 10/1:
If he wins … I should have stuck with him! He gave me one of my best wins of the year on Derby day in the Turf Classic, and as a grandson of SUNDAY SILENCE, I should have known he would take to the dirt and that the Woodward was no fluke. Jose Ortiz getting aboard for Rosario was a net positive, and Bill Mott can bring them to big days with the best of them. Plus, his late kick on a turf-friendly dirt course should have played well.
If he loses … He’s never run at 10 furlongs, and the damside pedigree isn’t great for distance. The Woodward was a nightmare cavalry charge turning for home, and while his late kick was clearly strong to get him home, it wasn’t the kind of race to write home about. If the track isn’t fast, his mud pedigree appears awful.
In short … I’m not confident the horse is good enough to win against this group; and maybe good enough isn’t the right word, but fast enough. Yes, the race could fall apart and his late kick is certainly plenty strong to get it done, but I generally feel like he’s a lesser horse than ROARING LION at half the price.
6) #11 MIND YOUR BISCUITS, 6/1:
If he wins … What a transformation he’ll have made. To win the Dubai Golden Shaheen going six furlongs in March to winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic going 10 furlongs in November would be absolutely incredible. And he had a very impressive tune-up in the Grade 3 Lukas Classic at Churchill on Sept. 29, winning by nearly five lengths and posting a lifetime best speed figure of 109. And he did it while running honest fractions all the way, sitting just off the lead and essentially posting :12 furlongs the whole race, giving him a strong 109 late pace figure -- which typically would tell you he can go longer.
If he loses … Nine furlongs is one thing, 10 is another. That pedigree is just not that of a classic winner, and if he wins to run his lifetime earnings past $7 million, his owner’s $47,000 investment will go down as one of the all-time great investments. Despite his impressive reputation, he’s just 2-for-8 in his previous American starts, and his closest competition in the Lukas was TOAST OF NEW YORK making his third start since coming off of a three-year layoff, and his first start in eight months after that.
In short … It would be a cool story if he wins, but 6/1 seems like a bad bet to me.
5) #3 CATHOLIC BOY, 8/1:
If he wins … We’ll note he had very reasonable excuses for his only two losses of the year -- one being a close loss after a layoff in his first three-year-old start and the other being when he bled in the Florida Derby. We’ll applaud his Travers win after two extremely gritty wins on dirt over well-regarded ANALYZE IT. And we’ll say he had the best in the game on his back, Javier Castellano, to guide him to a third straight win going 10 furlongs.
If he loses … we’ll say that the Travers day track was extremely speed-biased, and ANALYZE IT is the worst kind of hanger. Beyond that, the Travers field was middling at best, with Derby also-ran MENDELSSOHN running second after also on the lead. Finally, that his preferred on-pace running style wasn’t going to be preferred in a race with this much apparent pace.
In short … his wins over ANALYZE IT were some of the coolest things I’ve seen all year, but that Travers race was very much aided by a speed-biased track, and he still hasn’t faced older horses. I liked him at first blush, but upon further review, I do believe he’ll be an underlay, and I’ll try to beat him.
The Big Question Mark
4) #2 ROARING LION, 20/1:
If he wins … we’ll say four straight grade one wins at the highest level in Europe figured to translate pretty nicely to a turf-friendly dirt course in America, and that his 2-for-2 mark in starts at 10 furlongs also should have told us something. That the recent success of turf-to-dirt horses like YOSHIDA was an indictment of the state of our older classic horses here in America, and that if YOSHIDA could do it, so could ROARING LION with STREET SENSE as his damside sire.
If he loses … We’ll say that KITTEN’S JOY is known as a turf sire for a reason, and we should have known that the kickback at Churchill was too much.
In short … As stated earlier, I think you can make a reasonable case for almost the entire field to win this race; on the other hand, you cannot make a reasonable case that most of these horses are truly the best horses in the race. With ROARING LION, you can, and we might get a good price because we just don’t know what he might be capable of on dirt. His stride doesn’t look OVERLY turfy -- he’s not chopping the ground with his front legs -- so I’m willing to take a small shot here.
Deserving Favorites
3) #14 ACCELERATE, 5/2:
If he wins … He’s won 5-of-6 and is the morning line favorite in this race for a reason. He had a rough start in the Awesome Again, but he overcame that without much problem and moved into a brisk early pace, then put away WEST COAST with ease at the top of the stretch. His previous five speed figures have been good enough to win this race, and it’s the year of Sadler.
If he loses … We took a short price on a horse who hasn’t beaten anyone better than WEST COAST off a long layoff and … PAVEL, I guess? Rosario is a great finisher but he’s a cut below the best of the best. Finally, he hasn’t been successful outside of California, and this isn’t California.
In short … I don’t have a very solid reason to go against ACCELERATE other than that he hasn’t faced a field the likes of this before, and the previous strongest field he tried was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, when he finished ninth. All that said, he does strike me as one of the most likely winners, but I don’t know that I want to take a short price on his likelihood to beat the kind of horses he hasn’t beaten before.
2) #7 WEST COAST, 5/1:
If he wins … We should have known that his back class would shine through when given the chance to put two races together without a layoff. Johnny V. was a basically even replacement for Mike Smith, and Baffert had him expertly prepped for a peak effort after he ran at 75% in the Awesome Again.
If he loses … We’ll note that he was only 1-for-3 at the 10 furlong distance, and that he not only hadn’t won in 2018 -- he actually hasn’t beaten older horses since running against them in his second lifetime start, an optional claimer in May 2017. And the whole Mike Smith off thing … how did we ignore that?
In short … Yeah, I can’t ignore Mike Smith off. I do believe the pace could set up well for him, and Johnny V. is no slouch, but assuming the price is relatively the same as the morning line is, I couldn’t bet WEST COAST instead of MCKINZIE. Could I bet both, though? MAYBE.
1) #6 MCKINZIE, 6/1:
If he wins … We’ll remember how Baffert has won this race four of the last five years and thought this was the best horse in his stable earlier in the year, and how very close to undefeated MCKINZIE is. We’ll note how Mike Smith getting off of WEST COAST, no matter how they spun it as wanting to stick with a horse that will still run next year, had to say something in a $6 million race. And his last-out speed figure of 112 was the best in this field -- and in only his fifth lifetime race, off a six-month layoff, that spoke volumes about just how good he could be.
If he loses … We’ll say we should have known he would bounce off that huge speed figure, and that this was awfully deep water for his first try against older horses. Additionally, his forwardly-placed running style made things more difficult, and his pedigree was just a bit suspect in terms of getting 10 furlongs, so a short price was hard to take.
In short … I am worried about the pedigree going 10 furlongs and the bounce, but I cannot get past Smith getting off WEST COAST to stay on MCKINZIE -- there is no way he got off a better horse for the purposes of a future that’s not guaranteed.
The Plays
The Baffert horses seem to be the most likely winners, and if I have to make a choice, I’m going with the 3-year-old MCKINZIE. I do believe he’ll end up as the second choice, though, and I’m not sure there’s much value. I do see the value in ROARING LION, however, as I feel confident that he’s the best horse in the race if he takes to the surface.
$20 win on ROARING LION
$10 win on MCKINZIE
$2 exacta box ROARING LION wt MCKINZIE wt WEST COAST
BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE SPRINT
As you would expect in any Breeders’ Cup sprint race, there are some quick early horses here. SELCOURT won three straight races to start the season, but she has been on the shelf since March 24 and 7 furlongs is a tough distance to come back from for any horse. Taking that along with Sadler traveling out of California and not being a top trainer on the comeback from a layoff makes her a pass. SHAMROCK ROSE is a longshot that I considered as she’s now won three straight and very well may be just an improving 3-year-old who is peaking at the right time -- and she has the preferred off-the-pace style here, but she still hasn’t run fast enough to win this race after nine career starts. MARLEY’S FREEDOM has now won four straight and is a deserving favorite for the duo of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith, but I think she’s had relatively cushy trips in all of those starts and hasn’t really had to do anything impressive like press a fast pace or close into a slow pace. Some of that probably is due to her just being that good, but at likely odds-on I think it’s worth trying to beat her. FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM is 6-for-7 lifetime at Churchill, and her only loss was on a wet-fast track earlier this year. Unfortunately she had no real excuse in the Ballerina on Aug. 25, but that performance may ultimately give us the gift of 10/1 on her -- if you can stomach her going 7 furlongs (three of her four lifetime off-the-board finishes came going 7 furlongs). She’s one that likes it the faster they go, so she seems worth a shot. GOLDEN MISCHIEF is another that has won three straight and comes in off of a Grade 2 win in the TCA on Oct. 6. This is her first try at the top level, and what worries me about her is that she might simply not be able to keep up if they go too fast up front. I prefer HIGHWAY STAR, a horse that’s 3-2-0 in six lifetime starts at this distance and has consistently made a good account of herself. She had made good runs from everywhere against every kind of pace and gets Jose Ortiz aboard, so I’ll take a big swing here.
The plays: $20 win HIGHWAY STAR, $10 WIN FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM
BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT
There’s a surprising lack of speed in this 5.5-furlong race, and my gut tells me the 3-year-old WORLD OF TROUBLE may be the quickest one here, and he’s already won on good and yielding turf, which according to reports from Friday are about the true conditions at Churchill. He moves up in class quite a bit here, but this isn’t the strongest field that’s ever been assembled, and at 6/1 he looks the part. DISCO PARTNER is the best horse in the race and frankly I think he deserves to win this, but I don’t like the idea of him trying to chase down the leaders going just 5.5 furlongs (a distance DISCO PARTNER is only 1-0-4 at in five lifetime starts). The other two I considered are VISION PERFECT, an interesting horse that has only run 5 furlongs this year but had previously run a mile, and BUCCHERO, an honest type who just missed by a length in this race last year. VISION PERFECT gets Javier aboard for Servis and is my preference -- he appears to possess a little bit more natural early speed than DISCO PARTNER or BUCCHERO, and he’s 15-1 to boot. I’ll mention STORMY LIBERAL here in terms of why I’m playing against the defending champ -- I’m not convinced he’ll take to the somewhat soft going, and at 4/1, that’s not a chance I want to take.
The plays: $20 win WORLD OF TROUBLE, $10 win VISION PERFECT
BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE
What’s kind of sad about this race is that CATALINA CRUISER might actually be favored in the Classic if he was running there, but being a Sadler horse, he’s not going to pit him against ACCELERATE, unfortunately. Anyway, CATALINA CRUISER has looked like a monster to date, but horses like ISOTHERM, CITY OF LIGHT and TRIGGER WARNING have flashed very legitimate speed in the past, and the best horses CATALINA CRUISER has beaten to date are a long layoff BATTLE OF MIDWAY and DR. DORR. In short, I think you have to try to beat him. SEEKING THE SOUL has won his last two starts at Churchill and figures to benefit from a likely brisk early pace. ISOTHERM does intrigue me a bit as he ran a huge race in the Awesome Again and shortens back up to a mile, but that was a huge step forward for him and I have to wonder if a bounce is in play. Instead, GIANT EXPECTATIONS seems to be worth a shot here -- he didn’t have a good start in the Ack Ack yet still looked like a winner before hanging in the stretch; with a better start and in his second race off the layoff, he figures to sit a good midpack trip and potentially get first run on the leaders that I hope will start to fade. I just pray someone takes it to CATALINA CRUISER early and doesn’t let him walk the dog -- c’mon jocks!
The plays: $20 win GIANT EXPECTATIONS, $10 win SEEKING THE SOUL
BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF
Kind of a disappointing race; there's some decent star power at the top, but half of the field would appear to have virtually no chance. Five Chad Brown horses face off against a few Aiden O'Brien horses, and in that regard THAIS nearly held on in the Beverly D while administering a slow pace, and she could get away with a similar trip in this race, too. But stablemate SISTERCHARLIE won that one despite the slow pace, and I think stablemate FOURSTAR CROOK ran the best race overall there. Meanwhile, Johnny V. sticks with SISTERCHARLIE, making way for Javier Castellano on A RAVING BEAUTY, who has won both of her starts on good ground here in the U.S. and should be forwardly placed. WILD ILLUSION will likely be favored off of a Group 1 win at Longchamp last month, in which she beat MAGIC WAND by a length. Still, I liked MAGIC WAND prior to the reports about the turf today -- the amount of give in the course doesn’t seem to be good thing for her, as her best runs have come on firmer ground. Instead, I’m looking at longshot MOM’S ON STRIKE, who has run well on softer ground and comes in off a hard-fought second at Kentucky Downs in September, which should have built her stamina up for this run nicely while she adds blinkers.
The plays: $20 win A RAVING BEAUTY, $10 win MOM’S ON STRIKE
BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT
The scratch of X Y JET was huge as I believe it gives a big edge to the brilliantly fast PROMISES FULFILLED. Even before the scratch, I felt like PROMISES FULFILLED could outspring X Y JET to the lead, and now it looks to me like he could get loose early. That said, the rest of these are salty, too. LIMOUSINE LIBERAL is 6-for-8 lifetime and won the Churchill Downs sprint here going 7 furlongs earlier this year. WHITMORE is always dangerous and has been showing more speed recently, so he may not be too far back. Oh, and we have the defending champ ROY H and IMPERIAL HINT, the two actual favorites. I’m against IMPERIAL HINT because he’s 0-for-2 lifetime at Churchill and (through no fault of his own) hasn’t proven much with his wins against inferior competition, and I’m against ROY H for generally the same reason -- he hasn’t faced the likes of these. And, to be fair, I would expect DISTINCTIVE B to also impact the pace of the race ... but I really am not convinced anyone can run with PROMISES FULFILLED early, yet he could be the fifth-choice (I doubt it, but based on morning lines it could be close). In an otherwise seemingly inseparable field, the possibility of a clear early lead is too much to ignore. For my second horse, I’m going with WHITMORE -- if I’m wrong on PROMISES FULFILLED and he can’t clear, then the pace figures to be crazy … and WHITMORE is easily the best closer in the race.
The plays: $20 win PROMISES FULFILLED, $10 win WHITMORE
BREEDERS' CUP TURF MILE
It remains ridiculous to me that we give the DIRT Mile that label but the Mile is just known to be on turf. Yes, I get the traditionalist take, but I’m sticking with calling it the TURF Mile. The scratch of POLYDREAM, the already wide-open morning line favorite at 5/1, makes this race even more of a crapshoot. The Euros don’t look all that overwhelming in this one, surprisingly -- I CAN FLY, EXPERT EYE and LIGHTNING SPEAR are the three that look the best to me, but they don’t have to win. ANALYZE IT and NEXT SHARES are the two Americans I’m considering most heavily, and they come out of the same race -- NEXT SHARES won the Grade 1 Shadwell at 23/1 while ANALYZE IT faded to fourth under Johnny V. as the 2/1 favorite. I like ANALYZE IT to turn the tables -- he’s absolutely a hanger/lazy/whatever, but he figures to either be on the lead or just off of OSCAR PERFORMANCE, and by all accounts he’s horribly underachieved this year as Chad Brown had talked him up as the next coming earlier in the season. As for the Euros, I CAN FLY is the now horse as she comes in off a narrowly-beaten second to ROARING LION in the Queen Elizabeth, while LIGHTNING SPEAR had a streak of second-third-first in three straight Group 1 races this summer before tailing off some this fall. The former is 10/1, the latter is 20/1. And then there’s EXPERT EYE, who is 8/1 under Frankie Dettori. I think that’s an unfortunately adept morning line, as I do prefer EXPERT EYE out of the group.
The plays: $20 win ANALYZE IT, $10 win EXPERT EYE
BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF
I am against MONOMOY GIRL here. Even though she's 2-for-2 at the 9 furlong distance, I've always felt the mile or 1 1/16 mile distance was better for her, and I didn't like how she drifted in the stretch of the Cotillion last-out. Even though I can't take much away from her as MIDNIGHT BISOU just ran huge to run her down that day, she really had no excuse to not win after setting splits of :48 3/5 and 1:13. There are other pace players here, and while that could just mean she gets her preferred stalking trip, I prefer others. VERVE'S TALE is intriguing from that pace perspective, and while she was beaten rather soundly by WOW CAT in the Beldame, I wouldn't mind long odds for her to turn the tables here. I do also like WOW CAT in that regard as she is now 9-for-11 lifetime with her only "bad" race coming in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign back when she finished third, beaten ten lengths by the horse I originally believed was the most likely winner, ABEL TASMAN. Her Zenyatta was jaw droppingly bad, but she's done that before -- like this year in the La Troienne on Derby Day at Churchill. She bounced back from that to win the Ogden Phipps at odds on, though. It’s just hard to trust older females -- ROYAL DELTA is etched in mind that was so brilliant for a while and then just totally gave it up, and at a short price against a tough field, I’ll try to beat ABEL TASMAN. CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS is an outsider who stepped into graded competition for the first time in her 18th career start, and since then she's won a Grade 3, finished second by a nose in a Grade 3, and finished 3/4 lengths back after a tough trip in the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland. She is another that could benefit from a pace that might get a bit wild as she's performed well *despite* not getting much pace in most of her races -- the only two races that she's had a faster-than-average pace for the level she's run at, she's won.
The plays: $20 win WOW CAT, $10 CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS, $5 VERVE’S TALE
BREEDERS' CUP TURF
ENABLE is pretty ridiculous. 9-for-10 lifetime with $8.5 million in earnings, it’s easy to make the case for her standing head and shoulders above this field. But she was all-out and barely held off SEA OF CLASS in the Arc last month, and I think by any measure her two races so far this year haven’t been quite up to her standard of last season. Now, that can be explained away by the long layoff, etc., but between that and the new style of racing, I have no problem trying to beat her at short odds. The most obvious option is WALDGEIST, beaten just two lengths by ENABLE in the Arc, but his best runs have been on truly soft ground -- I don’t think there’s that kind of cut in the turf at Churchill. MAGICAL has the same problem in my mind, so I’m actually going to look to the American group to pull an upset. CHANNEL MAKER, GLORIOUS EMPIRE, HI HAPPY and SADLER’S JOY are all worthy of consideration. SADLER’S JOY has had a frustrating year and while I like him, he’s probably not going to out-close the Euro contingent. The others are intriguing as all are forwardly-placed types, but GLORIOUS EMPIRE has really only gotten the job done when he was really able to walk the dog; I don’t think that will work here. CHANNEL MAKER has really come into his own late in the season here, and he’s shown the ability win both on the lead and off it, so he’s worth the upset shot. HI HAPPY is more speculative but if you draw a line through his Saratoga starts this year, he hasn’t finished worse than third and never beaten more than a length since moving to Pletcher’s barn.
The plays: $20 win CHANNEL MAKER, $10 win HI HAPPY
FRIDAY'S RACES:
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF SPRINT
I’ll start by saying I don’t understand how STRIKE SILVER is 4/1 on the morning line here; he looks like a decent colt, but he won his only turf start with almost a perfect setup against vastly inferior competition. In fact, I don’t see how any of the American colts can win here, unless you count SHANG SHANG SHANG, last-out winner of the G2 Norfolk at Ascot back in June. Coming off that kind of layoff against this kind of field at the fresh young age of 2 doesn’t appeal to me. QUEEN OF BERMUDA at 20/1 is relatively intriguing getting Flavien Prat aboard -- if the going is on the softer side, she might be worth a stab. SOLDIER’S CALL has every right to win but has made seven straight starts dating back to May and seems to do his best running near the lead in a race full of speed; in a race so hard to separate the top Euros, that’s enough for me to avoid. SERGEI PROKOFIEV had a relatively miserable trip in his last race, yet he ran by the rest of the field -- including WELL DONE FOX, who was also second to SOLDIER’S CALL in his prior race -- like they were standing still with a brilliant turn of foot. On the other hand, that was a Group 3 field -- weaker than he’ll face Friday -- and this $1.1 million horse was unsuccessful in previous Group 1 tries. Which brings us to SO PERFECT, the “other” O’Brien horse, a mere $400,000 purchase. She ran second, finishing ahead of SERGEI PROKOFIEV a few months ago in a race where both horses raced awfully rank in the early stages, but SO PERFECT gave a much better account of herself after settling. She was third beaten less than a length in her last race, a saucy group 1 at Newmarket, and at 12/1 seems to me to offer a lot of value -- and any time I can avoid betting on Ryan Moore, I absolutely will. SO PERFECT is the main play with SERGEI PROKOFIEV the backup.
The plays: $20 win SO PERFECT, $10 win SERGEI PROKOFIEV
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
The popular opinion here is that NEWSPAPEROFRECORD is a monster, and that may well be true. But the Grillo field and the maiden race she won prior to that were awfully weak, and while the track was yielding and on the slow side, I don’t think there was much to write home about even though he came home his final 5/16 in :29 ⅖ and posted a speed figure of 99. The rest of the Americans, including CONCRETE ROSE, have just been running against *such* inferior competition in comparison to the Euros -- obviously you can only beat that which you face, but I’m making the blanket move to toss all of the Americans here. The one that intrigues me the most is SUMMERING, as she comes in off three career starts in which she was favored in all; but she failed in her last start and the waters are deeper here. AS for the Euros, THE MACKEM BULLET stretches out for the first time and is already a fairy tale story to be here at all with her pedigree as an $11,000 purchase; after two narrow defeats in Group 2 and Group 1 races across the pond, the fairy tale can’t get any better, though. LILY’S CANDLE is similarly rags to riches ($17k purchase) and is fresh off a Group 1 win in France. JUST WONDERFUL comes in off a Group 2 win and should appreciate stretching back out to a mile here. I don’t understand why LA PELOSA is 15/1 on the morning line; she seems every bit the contender of any of the other Euro shippers, and she at least proved she can win while turning left at Woodbine with hot early fractions that you don’t necessarily see in Europe! EAST is like LA PELOSA in that I’m not sure why she’s 20/1 on the morning line; this daughter of FRANKEL sold for *only* $369k, but she’s undefeated in two starts, including a highly-rated Group 3 triumph in France last-out.
The plays: $20 win LA PELOSA, $10 win EAST
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES
The main question in this race is probably whether BELLAFINA will have any problems with the other speed signed on here, or if the race will fall apart up top and the back markers will be the ones to reckon with. A few horses that would be labeled as contenders but that I will toss right away due to that general premise are SERENGETI EMPRESS, VIBRANCE and JAYWALK -- BELLAFINA disposed of VIBRANCE with ease after dueling in their last race, and the other two simply haven’t seen that kind of West Coast speed to date, and I just don’t think they can compete on the front end. That said, there are three horses coming from the rear that intrigue -- the top three finishers in the Spinaway. The first is a probably hopeless longshot, but CASSIES DREAMER was beaten only two lengths by SIPPICAN HARBOR (and a neck by RESTLESS RIDER) in the Spinaway and then had a hopeless task of chasing down loose-on-the-lead JAYWALK in the Frizette but still finished a respectable third there. She would seemingly benefit from a pace meltdown and could be a huge price. RESTLESS RIDER was much closer to the pace in the Spinaway than either SIPPICAN HARBOR or CASSIES DREAMER but still held on that day -- and then she won the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland last-out. Finally, we come to SIPPICAN HARBOR, who for some reason is 12/1 on the morning line but in my view will likely go off closer to 5/1. Her turn of foot late was spectacular in the Spinaway and I believe she will get stronger as the race goes longer. But is that good enough to catch BELLAFINA? Post 10 could be a problem going 1 1/16 at Churchill, but more likely it just sets her up for a nice stalking trip while she keeps her nose clean. Plus, I’m not sure I need to know the answer to make money playing this race.
The plays: $20 win BELLAFINA, $10 win SIPPICAN HARBOR, $5 win CASSIES DREAMER
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF
Once again, the Euros are on a completely different level. The one American horse that seems intriguing is MUCH BETTER as he looks clearly fastest, and he could set sail and refuse to stop while running the bottom out of the hard-closing Euros. ARTHUR KITT drew the 1 hole and has no business being 20/1 here; his last race was a step back, though, and certainly gives some pause. LINE OF DUTY is a bit under the radar as well having only run in and won a Group 3 to date, but this $550k son of GALILEO is certainly capable of taking this down even if I would expect him to get better going longer. But those are window dressing to ANTHONY VAN DYCK, who is the current second choice for next year’s Investec Derby. His last race, though, gave me some pause -- even though he was running against better than he’ll see at the Breeders’ Cup, it wasn’t a move in the right direction and he appeared on the tired side -- and this will be his seventh race since July 1. The short price and the outside post and Ryan Moore all have me looking elsewhere, and I kind of like ARTHUR KITT, but he, too, wasn’t as good last-out (note: both ANTHONY VAN DYCK and ARTHUR KITT were beaten by TOO DARN HOT by four lengths in their previous (separate) races). All that said, I’ll try LINE OF DUTY of the Euro group. He’s clearly moving in the right direction and he’s 10/1. I will also indeed try MUCH BETTER as I do think he’s got a chance here -- Baffert on turf!
The plays: $20 win LINE OF DUTY, $10 win MUCH BETTER
BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE
Juvenile races are always speed-laden; this one is kind of ridiculous. Only two horses have won a race PERIOD when being more than a length back at the second call: STANDARD DEVIATION and GAME WINNER. And since GAME WINNER has shown himself tactical enough to also win while right on the pace, that seems like a problem for the competition in this race. STANDARD DEVIATION, on the other hand, won a race from off the pace in an off-the-turf maiden at Saratoga, so while that doesn’t seem particularly impressive, I really think he’s going to benefit from being well off this likely sizzling pace, and the fact that Brown is running him at all against COMPLEXITY (although Brown is rarely shy about running his horses against each other) seems like a good sign to me that he believes this race will set up in a way to give STANDARD DEVIATION a puncher’s chance.
The plays: $20 win GAME WINNER, $10 win STANDARD DEVIATION
BREEDERS' CUP MARATHON
I'm still calling it a Breeders' Cup race because it should still be a Breeders’ Cup race in my opinion, and frankly maybe it still would be if it had drawn fields like this when it was! This is a fun race! ROCKETRY broke a track record going *almost* this long at Belmont last-out. BIG DOLLAR BILL was impressive going 12 furlongs back in early August at Saratoga. But I like DABSTER in this spot. I’ve liked him forever and so it may be a blind spot for me, but with his pedigree and his tactical speed, I think he’ll be forwardly placed and just keep on ticking off solid furlongs to victory.
The plays: $20 win DABSTER, $2 exacta box DABSTER wt ROCKETRY wt BIG DOLLAR BILL