Breeders' Cup Saturday
My Friday picks were ... decent.
I had one A horse win, one B horse win, and two C horses. On the plus side, I had a small-ish bet on one of the C horses (TAMARKUZ). On the down side, my two favorite bets of the day -- B horses COASTED and FOREVER UNBRIDLED -- looked like winners and couldn't get the job done. In fact, I believe COASTED in particular was the best horse in the race and was unlucky in the stretch with traffic troubles. As for FOREVER UNBRIDLED, well, I'm not going to complain much about running third to two champions like BEHOLDER and SONGBIRD.
To review once again, what I'll be doing here is listing A-B-C-X horses. One thing I've found is a problem for myself is that I'll write a 15-page preview that has a lot of great info ... but when it's five minutes to post, I still haven't figured out how I'm going to bet the race. So this step is more for me than it is for the reader, although I do think it will also serve as a more "at-a-glance" preview on how I think the race will play out.
(If you're not familiar with this method, A horses are primary contenders, likely winners or horses that are going to offer spectacular betting value. Sometimes an A horse may be a "play against" horse at even money, for instance, but that doesn't change the fact that he's still the most likely winner of the race. B horses are reasonable contenders or the most likely to win if the A horses do not win. C horses are unlikely winners but that I don't feel entirely uncomfortable dismissing entirely. Of course, that means X horses are horses that I think simply can't win for a variety of reasons (but if you're thinking about trifectas or superfectas, they could be reasonable inclusions.))
Depending on when you read this, I may not have all races complete ... I'm starting with the races I know you'll want to read about (i.e. the Classic) and working backward from there, so here goes:
Breeders' Cup Classic: Race 12, 7:35 p.m. Central
On one level, this is one of the deepest and most accomplished fields we've had in a Breeders' Cup Classic. On the other hand, it almost seems like a match race between ARROGATE and CALIFORNIA CHROME. FROSTED, the third choice on the morning line, has never been at this best past nine furlongs, and most of the others have only won big races when things went their way. Generally speaking, even if you don't like my picks below, I do feel like trying to pick between ARROGATE and CALIFORNIA CHROME is a fool's errand -- I say pick a longshot that you have some conviction on and go with it. If either of the "big two" win, you can applaud their greatness happily like I did today with BEHOLDER and SONGBIRD, so just take a price.
A: 4
No. 4 CALIFORNIA CHROME has been virtually untouchable this year. DORTMUND came within a half-length going 1 1/16 in July, but Chrome's three starts at ten furlongs have all been at least two-length wins. We know he'll be forwardly placed and we pretty much know at this point he'll run a speed figure of about 110, give or take. Only ARROGATE has scratched that level, and since I have my doubts there (more on him in a moment), it seems fairly clear that the best horse in the world very much deserves to be about even money. Anything more would be a gift.
B: 10
No. 10 ARROGATE set a track record at Saratoga in his first Grade 1 start. If I've ever seen a speed rating of 124 with pace figures of anything near 115-131-111, I don't remember it. It was an absolutely stupendous performance. Even the old maxim that loose on the lead horses run their best possible speed figures doesn't remotely explain this one. ARROGATE is some kind of freak, and it just remains to be seen what kind. What happens when CALIFORNIA CHROME looks him in the eyeball and unleashes his patented spurt at the top of the stretch? Tactically, he and CHROME have roughly the same running styles and desires for how the race should play out, so I'm hopeful that we'll see the two horses hook up and engage in a duel for the ages. But I'm just not so sure about that -- he passed his test against 3-year-olds, but this is yet another ballgame.
C: 3, 9
A big part of me says No. 3 KEEN ICE has no shot and that Castellano getting off of SHAMAN GHOST to ride him is just due to the Pletcher relationship, but there's just enough pause in making that statement that I can't get leave him out entirely.
No. 9 HOPPERTUNITY is one where I'm *pretty* sure we know what he is at this point -- a horse that will run on late and collect a check but never win the big one -- but he showed enough in the Jockey Club Gold Cup beating probably the best field he ever has to again just give me a little bit of pause.
X: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
No. 6 MELATONIN could probably be a B or C horse based on the same logic as SHAMAN GHOST -- we don't know just how good he could be at this very top level -- but I don't think he'll get away with a clear early lead as he has in his recent successful races, the layoff is a concern, and EFFINEX beat him two races ago and WIN THE SPACE came within 1.5 lengths in his last race. As for No. 1 EFFINEX, we know what he is at this point: If he's able to sit on top of a slow early pace, he can be a bear to beat in the stretch, but he otherwise hasn't shown the ability to get it done at this level. And while I've lightly backed No. 5 WIN THE SPACE against CALIFORNIA CHROME in his past races, it seems clear now that he is just in a completely different echelon -- and not in a good way.
If you bet No. 7 WAR STORY, um ... you have issues.
No. 8 SHAMAN GHOST was going to be my main play in the Classic, but he has scratched after spiking a fever. Here's what I had to say prior to that news: I will readily admit that No. 8 SHAMAN GHOST is pretty much the essence of a hunch play, but here's my case: The vast majority of these horses have run enough that I think there's plenty of evidence to more or less say they're hopeless against CALIFORNIA CHROME or ARROGATE. They have either been soundly beaten by them repeatedly, or at least have made enough starts against top-class competition to more or less know where they belong (more on the exact specifics of this below, of course). With SHAMAN GHOST, he has only run 12 times in his career, and only four times for his current trainer -- with one of those being his first start off of a 10-month layoff to kick off his 4-year-old campaign. So, my theory here is that he's 2-for-3 for Jerkens as a 4-year-old, and in the race he lost, he had virtually no chance due to EFFINEX walking on a slow pace -- although, to his credit, he won similarly slow-paced races in the Grade 2 Brooklyn and the Grade 1 Woodward. If he gets some pace to run into from even a minor battle for the lead between CALIFORNIA CHROME and ARROGATE, he might be the most talented horse left. Castellano getting off here to ride the seemingly hopeless KEEN ICE is kind of weird, but Castellano is going to opt for Pletcher over Jerkens almost every time, and SHAMAN GHOST picks up Irad, anyway, so it's not a big loss at all.
Breeders' Cup *Turf* Mile: Race 11, 6:40 p.m. Central
(Brief note to the purists: I will always call this the TURF mile as long as there's also a DIRT mile.)
As always, this is a fantastic race with a lot of reasonable choices. As we saw today, particularly in these two-turn one-mile races, trips can make all the difference -- both of the juvenile turf races saw the best horses lose to horses that got better trips (GOOD SAMARITAN was shoved roughly 10-wide in the first turn of the Juvenile Turf yet ran on like a shot at the end, and COASTED got steadied a few times in the stretch but still only lost by a half length). Additionally, the turf course is playing fast and seems to at least somewhat favor speed, so the ability to secure good position and make your own trip is key.
A: 2-8-10-13
No. 2 ALICE SPRINGS, No. 8 TEPIN and No. 10 LIMATO are the obvious contenders and will of course be bet that way. ALICE SPRINGS has won consecutive group 1 races and ran second at Keeneland in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf last year. I would mildly prefer her over LIMATO as it appears she's been facing very mildly tougher competition, but LIMATO has been running for -- and winning -- more money. I can't advocate betting either of these at low odds given the trip considerations, but they are of course going to be tough.
TEPIN had won eight straight races prior to getting beat by a loose-on-the-lead PHOTO CALL in her last race. I'm willing to forgive her that transgression because a) there's more speed in this race and b) she very likely wasn't fully cranked for that race. Also, she figures to work out a nice trip from post 8 and her tactical speed.
No. 13 MIDNIGHT STORM is the surprise of this group. He's got the early speed that seems to be playing well on this turf course and should be able to work out a good trip from the outside post due to that. He has also won three straight out here in California since getting Bejarano on (Espinoza off a turf horse has to be a huge plus angle) and, while I expect him to take some money, he should still be reasonably generously priced.
B: 3-7-9
I really like No. 9 IRONICUS in general, but I have serious concerns about his closing style on this strip against this field. A two-turn mile is tricky business for a horse like this, and while he could very well win with aplomb, he'll do it without my backing.
I would be pretty surprised if No. 7 DUTCH CONNECTION goes off anywhere near 20/1, but if he does he very well may be the bet of the entire Breeders' Cup. He was favored in the Shadwell Turf Mile when coming to America last year (he ran fifth), and picked up a Group 2 win back in July at Goodwood. The knock on him would be that he ran sixth in his last race and was fifth before that, and while that's not meaningless, he's been right there historically against very good competition.
And if I like DUTCH CONNECTION, how about the French-based horse that beat him and ran second in that very tough race last-out? No. 3 SPECTRE is an improving 3-year-old who could be dangerous at a huge price.
C: 4-5
No. 4 MISS TEMPLE CITY ran big when she upset the Shadwell last-out, and proponents of her in this spot might point to the fact that while she has only won 2-of-9 since June 2015, both were on the two-turn mile at Keeneland (similar to Santa Anita's configuration). That's compelling enough for me to not toss her entirely, but that's about it.
No. 5 TOURIST hasn't run better than eighth in two tries at this race to date. On the plus side, I do think he'll be able to work out a nice trip, and his Four Star Dave win was big enough to get the job done here if he can somehow replicate that.
X: 1-6-11-12-14
I don't have much trouble tossing any of these other than RING WEEKEND -- he won the Kilroe at Santa Anita in 2015 going the flat mile, and he has looked visually impressive at times. But he had dead aim in the Shadwell and flattened out, and I actually think he'd be better going longer than at the flat mile.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint: Race 10, 6:01 p.m. Central
I don't really understand why this race garnered this primetime spot -- it might be a race of decent quality to some extent, but it lacks real star power and the morning line favorite is a horse that was in state-bred company as recently as three races ago. It's also wide open and ostensibly lacking in early speed, so it's almost a certainty that four or five horses go early and throw all of the pace handicappers off.
A: 8
While it was mighty disappointing that she couldn't close the deal as the even money favorite in the Grade 1 Ballerina, No. 8 CARINA MIA cuts back to seven furlongs off of a five-length loss to SONGBIRD in the Cotillion last-out. She has generally been right on the pace so may actually be *the* controlling speed in this one, and I frankly just don't think any of these other horses are that good. It's either single her or go eight deep with a bunch of horses I don't really like, so a single it is.
B: 2-9-10-11
It's hard to knock what No. 2 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY has done in her past three races, winning three straight, including the Grade 2 Honorable Miss and the Grade 1 Ballerina. And hey, she's only run out of the top two one time in her last 10 races. I guess I'm just skeptical that a horse like this has suddenly made the leap from local $100,000 stake races to being a graded stake winner and now could be a Breeders' Cup champion in her 23rd start. She faces her best field yet here, and I'll play against.
I would much rather try No. 9 PAULASSILVERLINING if I had to, as she comes in off a solid win in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, beating the likes of No. 10 WAVELL AVENUE, who may have been compromised by both the pace and the mud. Or there's No. 11 IRISH JASPER, the winner of the TCA last-out (with a slow speed figure) and an $80,000 optional claimer at Saratoga (with a fast speed figure). I do like No. 9 PAULASSILVERLINING the best as she appears to have more tactical speed, so it's just a matter of price as to whether I'll play her.
C: 3-5-7
No. 3 TARA'S TANGO won a Grade 3 at Del Mar going 6.5 furlongs this summer, but prior to that had run much better going a route. Her class does appear better than most of these, and she did run third by a neck in the Santa Monica here back in January.
No. 5 WONDER GAL warrants a few bucks at anything near 30/1. While she has been disappointing in graded stakes tries this year and I would say she'd prefer to be going a flat mile, she was 2/1 against a number of these in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom last-out before running fifth. 30/1 is a laugh.
No. 7 GLORYZAPPER is moving solidly up in class on paper, but since I'm not convinced that the paper is right in this instance, I can't throw her out entirely.
X: 1-4-12-13
No. 12 FINEST CITY gets back to dirt and sprinting after a few route tries on turf in her last two. She just doesn't look fast enough, however. No. 13 SPELLING AGAIN has managed to win two Grade 2 races in the past year while running no better than third in any other race. She scares me a little, but you can't bet them all.
Breeders' Cup Turf: Race 9, 5:22 p.m. Central
The nice thing about this race is that so many horses are obvious tosses -- it's very much a three-horse race. The rough thing is that those three are tough to distinguish! It will be interesting to see what the pace is like here -- ECTOT walked the dog in his last race, a win over FLINTSHIRE on yielding turf, but otherwise who's going?
A: 4
On their best days, I'm not sure much separates any of the big three here. The question, then, becomes who is most likely to have their best day. I've come to the conclusion that it's FLINTSHIRE despite his shocking loss at odds of .2/1 in his last race -- between the yielding turf and a loose-on-the-lead ECTOT, I'm willing to draw a line through it and look at the rest of his form. He's trained and ridden by perhaps the best combo in America (Chad and Javier win 31 percent of their races), and he should almost absolutely get more pace to work his way into this time. With that said, he's also not a *deep* closer, so he shouldn't encounter some of the traffic troubles that you would normally worry about. He maybe has a bit of seconditis in him -- he has eight wins and 11 seconds from 23 lifetime starts -- but when you're facing the absolute best in the world, that's not at all something to be ashamed of.
B: 10-12
I do think No. 10 FOUND is potentially better than FLINTSHIRE, but this will be her fourth race since Sept. 10, and she's traveled from Ireland to France to England and now all the way to California. She did win the world's biggest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe, two races ago, and of course won the Breeders' Cup Turf back in 2015 with the assistance of a very fast pace. But this will be her 10th race in 2016 and with all of that travel, and actually only two wins in the calendar year (six second-place finishes), I think she's vulnerable in this spot. And Ryan Moore rides her, so screw him.
No. 12 HIGHLAND REEL was a game second in the Arc and won the Group 1 King George & Queen Elizabeth at Ascot back in July going 10 furlongs. And, it should be added, he beat FLINTSHIRE last December going 10 furlongs in Hong Kong. But he, too, has had a busy schedule and hasn't had a month off since May. I'd rather bet HIGHLAND FEEL than FOUND in this spot, but there's reason to worry.
C: 3-7
The biggest part of me says that No. 3 ECTOT beat FLINTSHIRE last time due to a clear easy lead and FLINTSHIRE's distaste for yielding turf. But while I know yielding turf won't be a problem this time, could ECTOT get away with an easy lead again? It's scary enough to include him.
No. 7 ULYSSES is a 3-year-old son of GALILEO and while there are other GALILEO sons in this race, this one is still a question mark with plenty of upside. After a disappointment in the Investec Derby, he's dropped to Group 3 competition, winning and one and running second in the other. Off since August, I don't think Sir Michael Stoute would bother with the trip if he didn't think the colt had real ability and the potential to upset these.
X: The rest
No. 2 DA BIG HOSS has won four straight and is 20/1 on the morning line ... that's how good this field is. He's as close to a C as you can get and absolutely should be in exotics, but I just don't think he can beat *all* of these.
No. 6 MONDIALISTE is an impressive horse that should be running in the Mile -- yes, he won the Arlington Million going 10 furlongs, but that was a weak race this year and hasn't tried 12 furlongs. The pedigree suggests it's within scope, but it's hard to imagine.
No. 13 METABOSS has scratched.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Race 8, 4:43 p.m. Central
It's your typical wide-open Juvenile, with seven horses between 7/2 and 8/1 on the morning line. Let's take a stab at it!
A: 1
No. 1 KLIMT suffered his first loss since his first race to a loose GORMLEY last time out, and he may have bounced off of his prior race, a romp in the Del Mar Futurity. In a race with plenty of speed, he appears to have the ability to sit off of the pace and come on. As with the F&M Sprint, you could either take a stand or go eight deep, so I'm riding with KLIMT and Bob Baffert.
B: 2-4-5-6-10
No. 2 SNYDERGAARD ran his eyeballs out in the Grade 1 Champagne, setting a torrid pace and still only losing by a nose. Now he tries a two-turn race for the first time and while that's not necessarily a deal-breaker at a place like Santa Anita, I don't think he'll be able to go much slower to save the needed energy.
No. 4 THEORY is moving way up in class after capturing the Grade 3 Futurity in his last race, but so are a lot of these horses. Of probably greater concern is that he's running again just three weeks later, but given the way Pletcher usually spaces races out, I don't think he's coming out with him for the heck of it. That he's running him against SYNDERGAARD may also speak volumes.
No. 5 CLASSIC EMPIRE is undefeated except for that fun time when he dumped Irad Ortiz at the start of the Grade 1 Hopeful, and he's shown the ability to rally from mid-pack.
No. 6 THREE RULES is the great mystery of this race. He's been running in restricted races down in Florida and putting up some gaudy speed figures while stomping his competition, but now he's not in Florida anymore and his pedigree by itself wouldn't indicate he has the class to hang here. He also figures to get caught up in a pace battle.
To be clear, I think No. 10 NOT THIS TIME would be a terrible bet as the favorite. But I think what he did in the Iroquois was impressive enough to stamp him as a major contender -- he sat three lengths off a slow half in :49 2/5 and then exploded to an eight-length win. He faces much tougher here, but he may just be a freak.
C: 9
No. 9 PRACTICAL JOKE got a dream trip sitting off of the speed duel in the Champagne. While that could happen again, of course, this is Santa Anita, and closers don't just come from the clouds.
X: 3-7-8-11
No. 7 GORMLEY got away to an easy lead in the Front Runner and was never challenged seriously. I am not a believer in John Shirrefs or Victor Espinoza at this point, period.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint: Race 7, 4:05 p.m. Central
This race is super tough as always, but honestly it has more appeal to me than it has in previous years. There are some darn good horses cutting back in distance to go along with the true sprint specialists -- making this a theoretically much tougher field than any of the sprint specialists have faced to date -- and ultimately I don't think any of these horses win this race more than once in six times.
A: 2-4
No. 2 OBVIOUSLY seems absolutely tailor made for this race -- he's always been able to fly early, and whenever he's lost a race, it has been in the last furlong of a mile, a distance he's run 20 or so times. He ran a :21 2/5 first quarter in his last race at a flat mile, so what's he going to post going down the hill? If he handles the hill, he's going to be very tough here.
No. 4 HOME OF THE BRAVE has been facing tougher than most of these at the seven furlong distance over in Europe. He has run second in two straight Group 2 races, but he won an equally tough Group 3 over there two back and is probably the classiest horse in the field.
B: 1-3-9-11-12
No. 1 PURE SENSATION has won three straight on the East Coast and is in the best "form" coming in, but post position No. 1 is nigh impossible to win from coming down the hill, and he's facing tougher than he has.
What can you say about No. 3 MONGOLIAN SATURDAY? He was pretty horrible in his travels abroad, but he ran huge in winning the Woodford and, of course, he's the defending champ here.
No. 9 A LOT is moving down from a flat mile against generally tougher, but I do have concerns about him having enough time to make his closing move. With that said, you can certainly close -- don't forget BOBBY'S KITTEN making that incredible last-to-first drive in the stretch in this race two years ago -- and he's classy enough that I think he warrants consideration.
No. 11 UNDRAFTED has been largely disappointing since winning the Shakertown in April, but he was favored in this race last year and should benefit from getting John Velazquez back aboard.
It's hard to believe, but No. 12 OM hasn't won a race this year. Still, he's been very close going a mile in his last two tries, and it would seem that he'll be able to carve out a clean trip from the 12 post. He might be the true "class" of the field.
C: 8-14-16
I don't really know what to do with No. 8 WASHINGTON DC because I don't know really what kind of field he was facing in his last race in Chantilly, where he ran second. I would view him as primarily an exotics player, but he is a seemingly improving 3-year-old with a solid sprint pedigree.
You can probably say the same thing about No. 14 CELESTINE that I said about OM -- he's plenty classy, but I think he's just a cut below. No. 16 GREEN MASK draws into the field and warrants a flyer.
X: 5-6-10-13
No. 5 KARAR hasn't been able to get the job done against anything close to this level abroad. Ditto for No. 7 SUEDOIS, who has run better generally, but still hasn't won since August 2015 against lesser foes. I've seen a number of people liking No. 10 AMBITIOUS BREW because he's your prototypical horse for the course, but that's such a widely known angle that the value won't be there and he also hasn't beat these kinds of horses over the course.
Breeders' Cup Sprint: Race 6, 3:21 p.m. Central
The scratches of JOKING and especially LORD NELSON have taken some of the appeal away here. At this point, there's only one truly late runner left, and he appears to be outclassed at first glance.
A: 5-7
I have bet against No. 5 A.P. INDIAN in five consecutive races ... and he has won every time. There's a saying in horse raBcing that if you don't go to the wedding, don't come to the funeral -- but how many weddings am I going to miss here?! I suppose I'll try to beat him again here.
No. 7 MASOCHISTIC is wickedly fast and is almost undoubtedly the speed of the speed here. He laid down a :43 3/5 half mile two back and went on to win by six lengths. His best efforts would beat this field most of the time, so he's probably my play and it's just a question of if that horse shows up or not. On the downside, this is a better field than he's ever faced other than his no-show last in last year's BC Sprint.
B: None
C: 2-3-9
No. 2 DREFONG is definitely a play against as he absolutely walked on the lead of the King's Bishop, but he did anything but in his prior race, a five-length destruction against a lesser field of older horses after a half in :43 4/5. This is certainly a big step up, however, and he'll have a lot of company on the front end.
No. 3 DELTA BLUESMAN looks like a toss to my naked eye, but he did win his last race impressively and is the last horse to beat A.P. INDIAN (back in mid-May). At his morning line, my metrics say he has the most pure "value" in the race.
No. 9 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL is the opposite of DELTA BLUESMAN to me -- based on my metrics alone, he would be a toss, but he ran so good in his last effort (a nose loss to A.P. INDIAN) and he's been knocking on the door at this level for a long time. He could finally break through at a big price.
X: 1-8
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf: Race 5, 2:43 p.m. Central
I don't see any truly good bets right off the bat in this race -- the favorites seem deserving, and if the morning lines are the post time odds, then I might advocating passing. But this is the Breeders' Cup, and what fun would that be?!
A: 3-8
It's Europe's best vs. America's best with No. 3 SEVENTH HEAVEN carrying the European banner and NO. 8 LADY ELI waving the American flag. Gun to my head, I actually do prefer SEVENTH HEAVEN -- she didn't get a great trip in her last race, and prior to that had won two straight Group 1 races against Europe's best. LADY ELI, of course, has only lost once in her entire career and is now in her third race off the year-plus layoff, so she would in theory be ready to fire her best. But she still truly hasn't beaten much in her career, and these last two races have been much more questionable visually than what she was firing last year. If SEVENTH HEAVEN drifts up at all, she could be a play.
B: 13
It's difficult to know the exact quality of the fields in Japan and Hong Kong, but given that No. 13 NUOVO RECORD was just a length back of A SHIN HAKARI (the best horse in the world for a while) in the Hong Kong Cup at this distance last December, there is clearly plenty of quality with this one. She has disappointed in three starts this year, but she hasn't run since August and is *by far* the leading money winner in this field. If she still has anything resembling her fastball, she looks very interesting at 12/1.
C: 1-11-12
No. 1 SEA CALISI has not run worse than third in four starts since coming to Chad Brown's barn as a Euro shipper, but I actually think she wants more ground -- not that she necessarily should have run against the males in the 12 furlong Turf, but she hasn't beaten a field anywhere of near this quality, and her best career efforts were at 12 furlongs. That said, she's plenty classy to pull a minor upset.
No. 11 QUEEN'S TRUST hasn't been good enough to seal the deal since her first race (now 7 1-1-2 lifetime), but she's been facing very tough competition and has certainly not embarrassed herself. As a 3-year-old, she likely has room to improve and was third behind SEVENTH HEAVEN and FOUND two starts back -- nothing to be ashamed of.
No. 12 PRETTY PERFECT is a similar story: This 3-year-old daughter of GALILEO is probably only improving and may be better cutting back to 10 furlongs after running fourth behind QUEEN'S TRUST in their last race on Oct. 15.
X: 2-4-5-6-7-9-10
There's just too much early speed for No. 2 CATCH A GLIMPSE to carve out any kind of trip here -- she could be interesting if she drifts way up, but there are so many early speed types it could be a very fast pace early to set things up for the big guns late. Ditto No. 6 ZIPESSA and No. 4 AVENGE. The others appear simply outclassed.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Race 4, 2:05 p.m. Central
As usual, this might be the most difficult race of the day to decode, as many of these fillies only have two starts to go off of. I do at least have a clear first choice from a value perspective, but gosh -- a lot of these would be very logical winners.
A: 4-12
I'm not sure what exactly No. 4 YELLOW AGATE has done wrong in her first two starts, other than maybe shying out from the whip in winning the Grade 1 FRIZETTE last-out. But is that so bad as to be 8/1 here? Not only do I think she's the best wagering value, I think she's the most probable winner as she can come from off the pace against a field full of to-date one-dimensional frontrunners.
I didn't originally have No. 12 AMERICAN GAL as an A horse due to her post, but I frankly had a bad feeling about leaving her as a B. Of all these horses who have won races in varying fashion, only she gives me the impression that there's a lot more in the tank than what we've seen to date. That said, there are plenty of questions: Can she go two turns without issue? (Probably.) Can she relax? (Based on previous workouts and racing form, probably not.) Does she want to relax? (Probably not from post 12.) I guess the bottom line is that you do have to go off of your gut a little bit more in these races, and my gut was screaming at me to move her up.
B: 5
No. 5 SWEET LORETTA won the Grade 1 Spinaway by five lengths but hasn't run since Sept. 3 and didn't put up a particularly fast speed figure in that race, either. I wouldn't think two turns would be a problem for her, but since she hasn't done it yet, there's some doubt in my mind. To be fair, you could say the same thing about YELLOW AGATE, so at this point I'm just picking things out of the air.
C: 3-9-10
No. 3 VALADORNA is moving a mile up in class off of a maiden win here, but she has the look of a filly who will improve with a faster pace if the track is playing fairly.
No. 9 UNION STRIKE is hard to figure on the two races -- seems like she could be a contender, but now she's been off two months and she's breaking from the outside -- but I like the pedigree enough to include her as a daughter of UNION RAGS and a SMART STRIKE mare.
No. 10 NOTED AND QUOTED was a bit of a surprise winning going longer in the CHANDELIER after losing around one turn in the Del Mar Debutante given her parents, but again, if she can work out a trip from an outside post, could be interesting.
X: 1-2-6-7-8-11
I had one A horse win, one B horse win, and two C horses. On the plus side, I had a small-ish bet on one of the C horses (TAMARKUZ). On the down side, my two favorite bets of the day -- B horses COASTED and FOREVER UNBRIDLED -- looked like winners and couldn't get the job done. In fact, I believe COASTED in particular was the best horse in the race and was unlucky in the stretch with traffic troubles. As for FOREVER UNBRIDLED, well, I'm not going to complain much about running third to two champions like BEHOLDER and SONGBIRD.
To review once again, what I'll be doing here is listing A-B-C-X horses. One thing I've found is a problem for myself is that I'll write a 15-page preview that has a lot of great info ... but when it's five minutes to post, I still haven't figured out how I'm going to bet the race. So this step is more for me than it is for the reader, although I do think it will also serve as a more "at-a-glance" preview on how I think the race will play out.
(If you're not familiar with this method, A horses are primary contenders, likely winners or horses that are going to offer spectacular betting value. Sometimes an A horse may be a "play against" horse at even money, for instance, but that doesn't change the fact that he's still the most likely winner of the race. B horses are reasonable contenders or the most likely to win if the A horses do not win. C horses are unlikely winners but that I don't feel entirely uncomfortable dismissing entirely. Of course, that means X horses are horses that I think simply can't win for a variety of reasons (but if you're thinking about trifectas or superfectas, they could be reasonable inclusions.))
Depending on when you read this, I may not have all races complete ... I'm starting with the races I know you'll want to read about (i.e. the Classic) and working backward from there, so here goes:
Breeders' Cup Classic: Race 12, 7:35 p.m. Central
On one level, this is one of the deepest and most accomplished fields we've had in a Breeders' Cup Classic. On the other hand, it almost seems like a match race between ARROGATE and CALIFORNIA CHROME. FROSTED, the third choice on the morning line, has never been at this best past nine furlongs, and most of the others have only won big races when things went their way. Generally speaking, even if you don't like my picks below, I do feel like trying to pick between ARROGATE and CALIFORNIA CHROME is a fool's errand -- I say pick a longshot that you have some conviction on and go with it. If either of the "big two" win, you can applaud their greatness happily like I did today with BEHOLDER and SONGBIRD, so just take a price.
A: 4
No. 4 CALIFORNIA CHROME has been virtually untouchable this year. DORTMUND came within a half-length going 1 1/16 in July, but Chrome's three starts at ten furlongs have all been at least two-length wins. We know he'll be forwardly placed and we pretty much know at this point he'll run a speed figure of about 110, give or take. Only ARROGATE has scratched that level, and since I have my doubts there (more on him in a moment), it seems fairly clear that the best horse in the world very much deserves to be about even money. Anything more would be a gift.
B: 10
No. 10 ARROGATE set a track record at Saratoga in his first Grade 1 start. If I've ever seen a speed rating of 124 with pace figures of anything near 115-131-111, I don't remember it. It was an absolutely stupendous performance. Even the old maxim that loose on the lead horses run their best possible speed figures doesn't remotely explain this one. ARROGATE is some kind of freak, and it just remains to be seen what kind. What happens when CALIFORNIA CHROME looks him in the eyeball and unleashes his patented spurt at the top of the stretch? Tactically, he and CHROME have roughly the same running styles and desires for how the race should play out, so I'm hopeful that we'll see the two horses hook up and engage in a duel for the ages. But I'm just not so sure about that -- he passed his test against 3-year-olds, but this is yet another ballgame.
C: 3, 9
A big part of me says No. 3 KEEN ICE has no shot and that Castellano getting off of SHAMAN GHOST to ride him is just due to the Pletcher relationship, but there's just enough pause in making that statement that I can't get leave him out entirely.
No. 9 HOPPERTUNITY is one where I'm *pretty* sure we know what he is at this point -- a horse that will run on late and collect a check but never win the big one -- but he showed enough in the Jockey Club Gold Cup beating probably the best field he ever has to again just give me a little bit of pause.
X: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8
No. 6 MELATONIN could probably be a B or C horse based on the same logic as SHAMAN GHOST -- we don't know just how good he could be at this very top level -- but I don't think he'll get away with a clear early lead as he has in his recent successful races, the layoff is a concern, and EFFINEX beat him two races ago and WIN THE SPACE came within 1.5 lengths in his last race. As for No. 1 EFFINEX, we know what he is at this point: If he's able to sit on top of a slow early pace, he can be a bear to beat in the stretch, but he otherwise hasn't shown the ability to get it done at this level. And while I've lightly backed No. 5 WIN THE SPACE against CALIFORNIA CHROME in his past races, it seems clear now that he is just in a completely different echelon -- and not in a good way.
If you bet No. 7 WAR STORY, um ... you have issues.
No. 8 SHAMAN GHOST was going to be my main play in the Classic, but he has scratched after spiking a fever. Here's what I had to say prior to that news: I will readily admit that No. 8 SHAMAN GHOST is pretty much the essence of a hunch play, but here's my case: The vast majority of these horses have run enough that I think there's plenty of evidence to more or less say they're hopeless against CALIFORNIA CHROME or ARROGATE. They have either been soundly beaten by them repeatedly, or at least have made enough starts against top-class competition to more or less know where they belong (more on the exact specifics of this below, of course). With SHAMAN GHOST, he has only run 12 times in his career, and only four times for his current trainer -- with one of those being his first start off of a 10-month layoff to kick off his 4-year-old campaign. So, my theory here is that he's 2-for-3 for Jerkens as a 4-year-old, and in the race he lost, he had virtually no chance due to EFFINEX walking on a slow pace -- although, to his credit, he won similarly slow-paced races in the Grade 2 Brooklyn and the Grade 1 Woodward. If he gets some pace to run into from even a minor battle for the lead between CALIFORNIA CHROME and ARROGATE, he might be the most talented horse left. Castellano getting off here to ride the seemingly hopeless KEEN ICE is kind of weird, but Castellano is going to opt for Pletcher over Jerkens almost every time, and SHAMAN GHOST picks up Irad, anyway, so it's not a big loss at all.
Breeders' Cup *Turf* Mile: Race 11, 6:40 p.m. Central
(Brief note to the purists: I will always call this the TURF mile as long as there's also a DIRT mile.)
As always, this is a fantastic race with a lot of reasonable choices. As we saw today, particularly in these two-turn one-mile races, trips can make all the difference -- both of the juvenile turf races saw the best horses lose to horses that got better trips (GOOD SAMARITAN was shoved roughly 10-wide in the first turn of the Juvenile Turf yet ran on like a shot at the end, and COASTED got steadied a few times in the stretch but still only lost by a half length). Additionally, the turf course is playing fast and seems to at least somewhat favor speed, so the ability to secure good position and make your own trip is key.
A: 2-8-10-13
No. 2 ALICE SPRINGS, No. 8 TEPIN and No. 10 LIMATO are the obvious contenders and will of course be bet that way. ALICE SPRINGS has won consecutive group 1 races and ran second at Keeneland in the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf last year. I would mildly prefer her over LIMATO as it appears she's been facing very mildly tougher competition, but LIMATO has been running for -- and winning -- more money. I can't advocate betting either of these at low odds given the trip considerations, but they are of course going to be tough.
TEPIN had won eight straight races prior to getting beat by a loose-on-the-lead PHOTO CALL in her last race. I'm willing to forgive her that transgression because a) there's more speed in this race and b) she very likely wasn't fully cranked for that race. Also, she figures to work out a nice trip from post 8 and her tactical speed.
No. 13 MIDNIGHT STORM is the surprise of this group. He's got the early speed that seems to be playing well on this turf course and should be able to work out a good trip from the outside post due to that. He has also won three straight out here in California since getting Bejarano on (Espinoza off a turf horse has to be a huge plus angle) and, while I expect him to take some money, he should still be reasonably generously priced.
B: 3-7-9
I really like No. 9 IRONICUS in general, but I have serious concerns about his closing style on this strip against this field. A two-turn mile is tricky business for a horse like this, and while he could very well win with aplomb, he'll do it without my backing.
I would be pretty surprised if No. 7 DUTCH CONNECTION goes off anywhere near 20/1, but if he does he very well may be the bet of the entire Breeders' Cup. He was favored in the Shadwell Turf Mile when coming to America last year (he ran fifth), and picked up a Group 2 win back in July at Goodwood. The knock on him would be that he ran sixth in his last race and was fifth before that, and while that's not meaningless, he's been right there historically against very good competition.
And if I like DUTCH CONNECTION, how about the French-based horse that beat him and ran second in that very tough race last-out? No. 3 SPECTRE is an improving 3-year-old who could be dangerous at a huge price.
C: 4-5
No. 4 MISS TEMPLE CITY ran big when she upset the Shadwell last-out, and proponents of her in this spot might point to the fact that while she has only won 2-of-9 since June 2015, both were on the two-turn mile at Keeneland (similar to Santa Anita's configuration). That's compelling enough for me to not toss her entirely, but that's about it.
No. 5 TOURIST hasn't run better than eighth in two tries at this race to date. On the plus side, I do think he'll be able to work out a nice trip, and his Four Star Dave win was big enough to get the job done here if he can somehow replicate that.
X: 1-6-11-12-14
I don't have much trouble tossing any of these other than RING WEEKEND -- he won the Kilroe at Santa Anita in 2015 going the flat mile, and he has looked visually impressive at times. But he had dead aim in the Shadwell and flattened out, and I actually think he'd be better going longer than at the flat mile.
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint: Race 10, 6:01 p.m. Central
I don't really understand why this race garnered this primetime spot -- it might be a race of decent quality to some extent, but it lacks real star power and the morning line favorite is a horse that was in state-bred company as recently as three races ago. It's also wide open and ostensibly lacking in early speed, so it's almost a certainty that four or five horses go early and throw all of the pace handicappers off.
A: 8
While it was mighty disappointing that she couldn't close the deal as the even money favorite in the Grade 1 Ballerina, No. 8 CARINA MIA cuts back to seven furlongs off of a five-length loss to SONGBIRD in the Cotillion last-out. She has generally been right on the pace so may actually be *the* controlling speed in this one, and I frankly just don't think any of these other horses are that good. It's either single her or go eight deep with a bunch of horses I don't really like, so a single it is.
B: 2-9-10-11
It's hard to knock what No. 2 HAVEYOUGONEAWAY has done in her past three races, winning three straight, including the Grade 2 Honorable Miss and the Grade 1 Ballerina. And hey, she's only run out of the top two one time in her last 10 races. I guess I'm just skeptical that a horse like this has suddenly made the leap from local $100,000 stake races to being a graded stake winner and now could be a Breeders' Cup champion in her 23rd start. She faces her best field yet here, and I'll play against.
I would much rather try No. 9 PAULASSILVERLINING if I had to, as she comes in off a solid win in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, beating the likes of No. 10 WAVELL AVENUE, who may have been compromised by both the pace and the mud. Or there's No. 11 IRISH JASPER, the winner of the TCA last-out (with a slow speed figure) and an $80,000 optional claimer at Saratoga (with a fast speed figure). I do like No. 9 PAULASSILVERLINING the best as she appears to have more tactical speed, so it's just a matter of price as to whether I'll play her.
C: 3-5-7
No. 3 TARA'S TANGO won a Grade 3 at Del Mar going 6.5 furlongs this summer, but prior to that had run much better going a route. Her class does appear better than most of these, and she did run third by a neck in the Santa Monica here back in January.
No. 5 WONDER GAL warrants a few bucks at anything near 30/1. While she has been disappointing in graded stakes tries this year and I would say she'd prefer to be going a flat mile, she was 2/1 against a number of these in the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom last-out before running fifth. 30/1 is a laugh.
No. 7 GLORYZAPPER is moving solidly up in class on paper, but since I'm not convinced that the paper is right in this instance, I can't throw her out entirely.
X: 1-4-12-13
No. 12 FINEST CITY gets back to dirt and sprinting after a few route tries on turf in her last two. She just doesn't look fast enough, however. No. 13 SPELLING AGAIN has managed to win two Grade 2 races in the past year while running no better than third in any other race. She scares me a little, but you can't bet them all.
Breeders' Cup Turf: Race 9, 5:22 p.m. Central
The nice thing about this race is that so many horses are obvious tosses -- it's very much a three-horse race. The rough thing is that those three are tough to distinguish! It will be interesting to see what the pace is like here -- ECTOT walked the dog in his last race, a win over FLINTSHIRE on yielding turf, but otherwise who's going?
A: 4
On their best days, I'm not sure much separates any of the big three here. The question, then, becomes who is most likely to have their best day. I've come to the conclusion that it's FLINTSHIRE despite his shocking loss at odds of .2/1 in his last race -- between the yielding turf and a loose-on-the-lead ECTOT, I'm willing to draw a line through it and look at the rest of his form. He's trained and ridden by perhaps the best combo in America (Chad and Javier win 31 percent of their races), and he should almost absolutely get more pace to work his way into this time. With that said, he's also not a *deep* closer, so he shouldn't encounter some of the traffic troubles that you would normally worry about. He maybe has a bit of seconditis in him -- he has eight wins and 11 seconds from 23 lifetime starts -- but when you're facing the absolute best in the world, that's not at all something to be ashamed of.
B: 10-12
I do think No. 10 FOUND is potentially better than FLINTSHIRE, but this will be her fourth race since Sept. 10, and she's traveled from Ireland to France to England and now all the way to California. She did win the world's biggest turf race, the Arc de Triomphe, two races ago, and of course won the Breeders' Cup Turf back in 2015 with the assistance of a very fast pace. But this will be her 10th race in 2016 and with all of that travel, and actually only two wins in the calendar year (six second-place finishes), I think she's vulnerable in this spot. And Ryan Moore rides her, so screw him.
No. 12 HIGHLAND REEL was a game second in the Arc and won the Group 1 King George & Queen Elizabeth at Ascot back in July going 10 furlongs. And, it should be added, he beat FLINTSHIRE last December going 10 furlongs in Hong Kong. But he, too, has had a busy schedule and hasn't had a month off since May. I'd rather bet HIGHLAND FEEL than FOUND in this spot, but there's reason to worry.
C: 3-7
The biggest part of me says that No. 3 ECTOT beat FLINTSHIRE last time due to a clear easy lead and FLINTSHIRE's distaste for yielding turf. But while I know yielding turf won't be a problem this time, could ECTOT get away with an easy lead again? It's scary enough to include him.
No. 7 ULYSSES is a 3-year-old son of GALILEO and while there are other GALILEO sons in this race, this one is still a question mark with plenty of upside. After a disappointment in the Investec Derby, he's dropped to Group 3 competition, winning and one and running second in the other. Off since August, I don't think Sir Michael Stoute would bother with the trip if he didn't think the colt had real ability and the potential to upset these.
X: The rest
No. 2 DA BIG HOSS has won four straight and is 20/1 on the morning line ... that's how good this field is. He's as close to a C as you can get and absolutely should be in exotics, but I just don't think he can beat *all* of these.
No. 6 MONDIALISTE is an impressive horse that should be running in the Mile -- yes, he won the Arlington Million going 10 furlongs, but that was a weak race this year and hasn't tried 12 furlongs. The pedigree suggests it's within scope, but it's hard to imagine.
No. 13 METABOSS has scratched.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile: Race 8, 4:43 p.m. Central
It's your typical wide-open Juvenile, with seven horses between 7/2 and 8/1 on the morning line. Let's take a stab at it!
A: 1
No. 1 KLIMT suffered his first loss since his first race to a loose GORMLEY last time out, and he may have bounced off of his prior race, a romp in the Del Mar Futurity. In a race with plenty of speed, he appears to have the ability to sit off of the pace and come on. As with the F&M Sprint, you could either take a stand or go eight deep, so I'm riding with KLIMT and Bob Baffert.
B: 2-4-5-6-10
No. 2 SNYDERGAARD ran his eyeballs out in the Grade 1 Champagne, setting a torrid pace and still only losing by a nose. Now he tries a two-turn race for the first time and while that's not necessarily a deal-breaker at a place like Santa Anita, I don't think he'll be able to go much slower to save the needed energy.
No. 4 THEORY is moving way up in class after capturing the Grade 3 Futurity in his last race, but so are a lot of these horses. Of probably greater concern is that he's running again just three weeks later, but given the way Pletcher usually spaces races out, I don't think he's coming out with him for the heck of it. That he's running him against SYNDERGAARD may also speak volumes.
No. 5 CLASSIC EMPIRE is undefeated except for that fun time when he dumped Irad Ortiz at the start of the Grade 1 Hopeful, and he's shown the ability to rally from mid-pack.
No. 6 THREE RULES is the great mystery of this race. He's been running in restricted races down in Florida and putting up some gaudy speed figures while stomping his competition, but now he's not in Florida anymore and his pedigree by itself wouldn't indicate he has the class to hang here. He also figures to get caught up in a pace battle.
To be clear, I think No. 10 NOT THIS TIME would be a terrible bet as the favorite. But I think what he did in the Iroquois was impressive enough to stamp him as a major contender -- he sat three lengths off a slow half in :49 2/5 and then exploded to an eight-length win. He faces much tougher here, but he may just be a freak.
C: 9
No. 9 PRACTICAL JOKE got a dream trip sitting off of the speed duel in the Champagne. While that could happen again, of course, this is Santa Anita, and closers don't just come from the clouds.
X: 3-7-8-11
No. 7 GORMLEY got away to an easy lead in the Front Runner and was never challenged seriously. I am not a believer in John Shirrefs or Victor Espinoza at this point, period.
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint: Race 7, 4:05 p.m. Central
This race is super tough as always, but honestly it has more appeal to me than it has in previous years. There are some darn good horses cutting back in distance to go along with the true sprint specialists -- making this a theoretically much tougher field than any of the sprint specialists have faced to date -- and ultimately I don't think any of these horses win this race more than once in six times.
A: 2-4
No. 2 OBVIOUSLY seems absolutely tailor made for this race -- he's always been able to fly early, and whenever he's lost a race, it has been in the last furlong of a mile, a distance he's run 20 or so times. He ran a :21 2/5 first quarter in his last race at a flat mile, so what's he going to post going down the hill? If he handles the hill, he's going to be very tough here.
No. 4 HOME OF THE BRAVE has been facing tougher than most of these at the seven furlong distance over in Europe. He has run second in two straight Group 2 races, but he won an equally tough Group 3 over there two back and is probably the classiest horse in the field.
B: 1-3-9-11-12
No. 1 PURE SENSATION has won three straight on the East Coast and is in the best "form" coming in, but post position No. 1 is nigh impossible to win from coming down the hill, and he's facing tougher than he has.
What can you say about No. 3 MONGOLIAN SATURDAY? He was pretty horrible in his travels abroad, but he ran huge in winning the Woodford and, of course, he's the defending champ here.
No. 9 A LOT is moving down from a flat mile against generally tougher, but I do have concerns about him having enough time to make his closing move. With that said, you can certainly close -- don't forget BOBBY'S KITTEN making that incredible last-to-first drive in the stretch in this race two years ago -- and he's classy enough that I think he warrants consideration.
No. 11 UNDRAFTED has been largely disappointing since winning the Shakertown in April, but he was favored in this race last year and should benefit from getting John Velazquez back aboard.
It's hard to believe, but No. 12 OM hasn't won a race this year. Still, he's been very close going a mile in his last two tries, and it would seem that he'll be able to carve out a clean trip from the 12 post. He might be the true "class" of the field.
C: 8-14-16
I don't really know what to do with No. 8 WASHINGTON DC because I don't know really what kind of field he was facing in his last race in Chantilly, where he ran second. I would view him as primarily an exotics player, but he is a seemingly improving 3-year-old with a solid sprint pedigree.
You can probably say the same thing about No. 14 CELESTINE that I said about OM -- he's plenty classy, but I think he's just a cut below. No. 16 GREEN MASK draws into the field and warrants a flyer.
X: 5-6-10-13
No. 5 KARAR hasn't been able to get the job done against anything close to this level abroad. Ditto for No. 7 SUEDOIS, who has run better generally, but still hasn't won since August 2015 against lesser foes. I've seen a number of people liking No. 10 AMBITIOUS BREW because he's your prototypical horse for the course, but that's such a widely known angle that the value won't be there and he also hasn't beat these kinds of horses over the course.
Breeders' Cup Sprint: Race 6, 3:21 p.m. Central
The scratches of JOKING and especially LORD NELSON have taken some of the appeal away here. At this point, there's only one truly late runner left, and he appears to be outclassed at first glance.
A: 5-7
I have bet against No. 5 A.P. INDIAN in five consecutive races ... and he has won every time. There's a saying in horse raBcing that if you don't go to the wedding, don't come to the funeral -- but how many weddings am I going to miss here?! I suppose I'll try to beat him again here.
No. 7 MASOCHISTIC is wickedly fast and is almost undoubtedly the speed of the speed here. He laid down a :43 3/5 half mile two back and went on to win by six lengths. His best efforts would beat this field most of the time, so he's probably my play and it's just a question of if that horse shows up or not. On the downside, this is a better field than he's ever faced other than his no-show last in last year's BC Sprint.
B: None
C: 2-3-9
No. 2 DREFONG is definitely a play against as he absolutely walked on the lead of the King's Bishop, but he did anything but in his prior race, a five-length destruction against a lesser field of older horses after a half in :43 4/5. This is certainly a big step up, however, and he'll have a lot of company on the front end.
No. 3 DELTA BLUESMAN looks like a toss to my naked eye, but he did win his last race impressively and is the last horse to beat A.P. INDIAN (back in mid-May). At his morning line, my metrics say he has the most pure "value" in the race.
No. 9 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL is the opposite of DELTA BLUESMAN to me -- based on my metrics alone, he would be a toss, but he ran so good in his last effort (a nose loss to A.P. INDIAN) and he's been knocking on the door at this level for a long time. He could finally break through at a big price.
X: 1-8
Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf: Race 5, 2:43 p.m. Central
I don't see any truly good bets right off the bat in this race -- the favorites seem deserving, and if the morning lines are the post time odds, then I might advocating passing. But this is the Breeders' Cup, and what fun would that be?!
A: 3-8
It's Europe's best vs. America's best with No. 3 SEVENTH HEAVEN carrying the European banner and NO. 8 LADY ELI waving the American flag. Gun to my head, I actually do prefer SEVENTH HEAVEN -- she didn't get a great trip in her last race, and prior to that had won two straight Group 1 races against Europe's best. LADY ELI, of course, has only lost once in her entire career and is now in her third race off the year-plus layoff, so she would in theory be ready to fire her best. But she still truly hasn't beaten much in her career, and these last two races have been much more questionable visually than what she was firing last year. If SEVENTH HEAVEN drifts up at all, she could be a play.
B: 13
It's difficult to know the exact quality of the fields in Japan and Hong Kong, but given that No. 13 NUOVO RECORD was just a length back of A SHIN HAKARI (the best horse in the world for a while) in the Hong Kong Cup at this distance last December, there is clearly plenty of quality with this one. She has disappointed in three starts this year, but she hasn't run since August and is *by far* the leading money winner in this field. If she still has anything resembling her fastball, she looks very interesting at 12/1.
C: 1-11-12
No. 1 SEA CALISI has not run worse than third in four starts since coming to Chad Brown's barn as a Euro shipper, but I actually think she wants more ground -- not that she necessarily should have run against the males in the 12 furlong Turf, but she hasn't beaten a field anywhere of near this quality, and her best career efforts were at 12 furlongs. That said, she's plenty classy to pull a minor upset.
No. 11 QUEEN'S TRUST hasn't been good enough to seal the deal since her first race (now 7 1-1-2 lifetime), but she's been facing very tough competition and has certainly not embarrassed herself. As a 3-year-old, she likely has room to improve and was third behind SEVENTH HEAVEN and FOUND two starts back -- nothing to be ashamed of.
No. 12 PRETTY PERFECT is a similar story: This 3-year-old daughter of GALILEO is probably only improving and may be better cutting back to 10 furlongs after running fourth behind QUEEN'S TRUST in their last race on Oct. 15.
X: 2-4-5-6-7-9-10
There's just too much early speed for No. 2 CATCH A GLIMPSE to carve out any kind of trip here -- she could be interesting if she drifts way up, but there are so many early speed types it could be a very fast pace early to set things up for the big guns late. Ditto No. 6 ZIPESSA and No. 4 AVENGE. The others appear simply outclassed.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies: Race 4, 2:05 p.m. Central
As usual, this might be the most difficult race of the day to decode, as many of these fillies only have two starts to go off of. I do at least have a clear first choice from a value perspective, but gosh -- a lot of these would be very logical winners.
A: 4-12
I'm not sure what exactly No. 4 YELLOW AGATE has done wrong in her first two starts, other than maybe shying out from the whip in winning the Grade 1 FRIZETTE last-out. But is that so bad as to be 8/1 here? Not only do I think she's the best wagering value, I think she's the most probable winner as she can come from off the pace against a field full of to-date one-dimensional frontrunners.
I didn't originally have No. 12 AMERICAN GAL as an A horse due to her post, but I frankly had a bad feeling about leaving her as a B. Of all these horses who have won races in varying fashion, only she gives me the impression that there's a lot more in the tank than what we've seen to date. That said, there are plenty of questions: Can she go two turns without issue? (Probably.) Can she relax? (Based on previous workouts and racing form, probably not.) Does she want to relax? (Probably not from post 12.) I guess the bottom line is that you do have to go off of your gut a little bit more in these races, and my gut was screaming at me to move her up.
B: 5
No. 5 SWEET LORETTA won the Grade 1 Spinaway by five lengths but hasn't run since Sept. 3 and didn't put up a particularly fast speed figure in that race, either. I wouldn't think two turns would be a problem for her, but since she hasn't done it yet, there's some doubt in my mind. To be fair, you could say the same thing about YELLOW AGATE, so at this point I'm just picking things out of the air.
C: 3-9-10
No. 3 VALADORNA is moving a mile up in class off of a maiden win here, but she has the look of a filly who will improve with a faster pace if the track is playing fairly.
No. 9 UNION STRIKE is hard to figure on the two races -- seems like she could be a contender, but now she's been off two months and she's breaking from the outside -- but I like the pedigree enough to include her as a daughter of UNION RAGS and a SMART STRIKE mare.
No. 10 NOTED AND QUOTED was a bit of a surprise winning going longer in the CHANDELIER after losing around one turn in the Del Mar Debutante given her parents, but again, if she can work out a trip from an outside post, could be interesting.
X: 1-2-6-7-8-11