THE 2018 KENTUCKY DERBY
Welcome to my TENTH ANNUAL Kentucky Derby Preview!
That’s right … 10 years. It started small -- both in distribution (five people on an email list) and length (no more than a few sentences on each horse). Now ... well, the distribution probably isn’t much higher, but we’re pushing 20 pages again this year.
I can't say that my track record in this race has been all that great, but that’s OK -- the journey is the destination. The process is the purpose. And so on. I enjoy following these horses and agonizing over all of their races for months, and then bringing it all together into a (not so) little package for your reading pleasure.
I’ve changed up the format a little bit basically every year, and this year I am trying something new yet again. In past years, I’ve basically had predetermined opinions on each horse, and I’ve then written a narrative to support that opinion. That’s maybe useful to everyone who bothers to read, but I didn’t necessarily get much out of the massive brain dump.
Now, those who know me well know that I am never satisfied with the result of a race because of two main reasons: 1) I should have bet more (when I had the winner), and 2) I KNEW the winner going to win because X, Y and Z, I'm an idiot (because I didn't have the winner). The fact that I never mentioned X, Y and Z before the race doesn’t matter at that point … I just KNEW it.
(Yes, obviously this is a running joke with my friends.)
So, this year, I wanted to try not only making myself be a little bit more objective, but also to address all of the positive and negative factors for each horse BEFORE the race rather than concocting all of these reasons after the fact.
With that said, the format of this year's preview is simple: 1) What I would say about the horse if he wins, 2) What I would say about the horse if he doesn't win, and 3) Each horse is wrapped up with my opinion that you can take or leave.
But first, a bit of background that will hopefully help you understand the rest of this preview. The ultimate question we’re trying to answer is pretty simple: Which horse is going to run 10 furlongs in the least amount of time on May 5? And the main ways we’ll try to determine that by answering a number of sub questions:
How fast has the horse actually run in previous races? (“Speed figure”, “fig”, “BRIS”)
Is there reason to believe that the horse COULD have fun faster? (“Pace”, “Pace figure”, “EP”, “LP”, “fraction”, “trouble”, “bumped”, “steadied”, “wide”)
OK, you made it. That’s the preamble! Only 3.5 pages this year! Now it’s time for the race analysis itself.
There’s a narrative out there right now that this is the most wide-open and talented Derby in memory. Steve Haskin, he of the fantastic DERBY DOZEN series at Bloodhorse, has taken to calling the top contenders the “magnificent seven” (in this order): VINO ROSSO, GOOD MAGIC, JUSTIFY, BOLT D’ORO, AUDIBLE, MAGNUM MOON, MENDELSSOHN.
Steve has been doing this a long time and I never want to discount his opinion entirely, but while I can agree that there are seven horses who do truly look potentially magnificent, there are only two that have proven it to date.
The next five are question marks to various degrees -- there are two that are very solid that I don’t have many questions about but I’m also not sure can go fast enough, and then there are two that may well be superstars in the making, but that I have serious enough questions about that I can’t see backing them. Then there’s one in that group that I just don’t like at all.
From there, I have a few longshots that obviously I think are less likely to win than those I have ranked above them, but that I do think will offer value and are intriguing enough. After that, it’s a grab bag of horses with little to no chance in my mind. Sorry if your favorite horse shows up there -- it doesn’t necessarily mean I don’t think he can finish in the top four, but it does mean I don’t think they have much of a chance of winning.
Here's the field in reverse order of win probability:
Nope, nope, nope
20) #13 BRAVAZO (http://www.pedigreequery.com/bravazo), 50/1:
If he wins … We’ll laud D. Wayne Lukas for putting Luis Contreras on the horse for the first time and note that other than the Lousiana Derby when his goose was cooked through a :46.6 half in which he sat third early, he had shown a nice improvement as a three-year-old with speed figures of 98-96. And that in the Risen Star, he came home his final 2.5 furlongs in 30 seconds flat to give himself a 100 late pace figure.
If he loses … We’ll say he got a garden trip in the Risen Star and that obviously there wasn’t much quality in the race since he won at odds of 21/1 and SNAPPER SINCLAIR ran second at even bigger odds of 41/1. We’ll say that while the Louisiana Derby pace was hot, that didn’t seem to hurt NOBLE INDY (the eventual winner who was even closer to the pace). And that pedigree? AWESOME AGAIN is a fine distance influence as a sire, but the damside looks quite sprint-oriented.
In short … It’s just really hard to see how this horse a) has the ability to improve going longer and b) has run anywhere near well enough to win a race like this. A complete toss.
19) #1 FIRENZE FIRE (http://www.pedigreequery.com/firenze+fire), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that the nine career starts he’s had gave him a lot of experience heading into this horse racing version of bumper cars, and his general moxie and attitude helped bring out the deep influence of SECRETARIAT four generations back on his paternal side. And we’ll say that Paco Lopez getting on for the first time must have brought out a different side of him. And we’ll say, jeez, how stringent is the drug testing at the Derby?
If he loses … We’ll say, yeah, there was no way this horse that ran fourth in his last two starts (beaten by 9 and 11 lengths) and never ran better than a 96 speed figure (which happened last October) was going to jump up and run the race of his life with a new jockey on his back for the first time after a string of slow workouts.
In short … I would LOVE it if this horse wins the Derby because one of the best things I’ve seen this year from a horse was his second-place finish in the Withers -- while he actually ran fairly slow late after pressing some brisk early fractions, you frankly don’t see a horse TRY like that all that often. He is, as they say in the business, as game as they come. But … a son of POSEIDON’S WARRIOR getting 10 furlongs is kind of laughable, unfortunately. One interesting thing I read questioned if Paco -- who is relatively known for his success with front-running horses -- would try to send him to the lead given that he’s breaking from the inside post and he could get buried there if he doesn’t get away well. I don’t think this really makes a difference in his likelihood of winning, but such tactics could change the complexion of the race.
The valley of MEH
18) #8 LONE SAILOR (http://www.pedigreequery.com/lone+sailor3), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that his Louisiana Derby, when he popped off a 100 speed figure and ran second out of nowhere, was a sign that something changed and he figured this racing thing out after seven prior starts. And that his brisk :57.3 workout at Churchill on April 19 was a sign that he was ready for an even bigger step forward. And that with A.P. INDY a generation back on his paternal side and STORM CAT two back on his maternal side, that there was reason to believe he could get better going even longer.
If he loses … We’ll say that his 100 speed figure in the Louisiana Derby was aided by a very fast early pace (:46.3) and that the fact he’s 1-for-8 lifetime and hadn’t run better than a 90 figure in seven prior lifetime starts showed that the Louisiana Derby was a fluke. And that his Louisiana Derby wasn’t even that good -- he flattened out late and couldn’t go by NOBLE INDY, who had to run hard while closer to the pace the whole way. And that despite the classic influences, this pedigree might still lean sprint. Finally, we’ll say that even if the Louisiana Derby was that good, it made him an obvious bounce candidate in the Kentucky Derby.
In short … We would have to see a real pace meltdown for him to get involved late. The workout is the only thing that’s keeping him out of of the “nope, nope, nope” category.
17) #3 PROMISES FULFILLED (http://www.pedigreequery.com/promises+fulfilled), 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll point to his sire, SHACKLEFORD, as a horse that won the Preakness and led the Derby field into the stretch at big odds, as the reason his son, another plucky frontrunner, had the stamina and fight to get the job done as a horse that everyone just dismissed and allowed to get an easy lead. And we’ll credit Dale Romans and Corey Lanerie, two Churchill veterans, for their experience at the track. We’ll say that the Florida Derby was a complete throwout due to Robby Albarado’s boneheaded ride (:46.2 first half mile), and that Fountain of Youth was actually pretty impressive because, despite the easy early lead, he ran a :24.2 third quarter but still came home with a 102 late pace figure while pulling away to win by more than two lengths.
If he loses … We’ll say that as good as SHACKLEFORD was, he choked things up late in the Derby stretch because he simply was not a classic distance horse -- which was proven later in his career when he became a crack mile horse. We’ll say that he’s obviously a need-the-lead horse and he’s never won when the pace was faster than par for that class. And that other than his Fountain of Youth speed fig of 104 -- which came on a Gulfstream strip that can be speed-favoring -- he’s never run better than a 92 speed figure.
In short … I like any horse by SHACKLEFORD, but I would be pretty surprised if he was anywhere in the area code of the winner later. To be fair, he seems more likely than FIRENZE FIRE (for example) because there is the chance that he gets away solo and they let him click off a :48 3/5 and three quarters in 1:13 or so, but with all of the other speed and quality here, it seems highly unlikely.
16) #10 MY BOY JACK (http://www.pedigreequery.com/my+boy+jack3), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … Hail the iron horse! A Derby horse with double-digit lifetime starts is pretty darn rare, and MY BOY JACK comes in with ten. We’ll say that all of those starts really helped him build up the bottom and seasoning that you need to win going ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May. We’ll note how good that Desormeaux brother combination can be, and we’ll note how his big middle move is more often the winning Derby move than a true late closer coming from the clouds down the lane. And we’ll note that while the pedigree leans turf, turf horses have had plenty of Derby success (ANIMAL KINGDOM comes to mind).
If he loses … We’ll say that his ten starts have pretty well proven out his ceiling, and that he’s yet to run a triple-digit speed figure in any of them. We’ll note that despite fast early paces in *most* of his races, he’s only been able to seal the deal in three starts, and he had absolutely no excuse to not go by NOBLE INDY in the Louisiana Derby. He proved himself a mud monster in the Southwest with an EXXAGERATOR-like move on the rail, but otherwise he only beat a turf field and a lower-level Lexington field (barely holding off lightly-raced TELEKINESIS). We’ll say we should have known he simply had the look of a solid horse that wasn’t going to improve going ten furlongs.
In short … I like this horse well enough, but you’d really have to have faith in the Desormeaux clan to want to bet him. How great is that middle move going to be when he’ll probably have to go eight wide to do it? The only way I could see him winning is if Kent delivers a virtuouso rail trip a la STREET SENSE or MINE THAT BIRD, and even then I’m not sure he can sustain such a bid down the lane as he’s idled so badly late in most of his races.
15) #20 COMBATANT (http://www.pedigreequery.com/combatant7), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say his strong finishing fractions showed that he really gets going late, and that since he’s never faced a truly “fast” pace in his life, all he needed was more speed up front to turn those strong finishes into an electrifying late kick as the other horses slowed down and he just kept going strong. And with NORTHERN DANCER twice on his damside and once on his sire’s side, the quality of the pedigree was finally able to shine for this $320,000 purchase. Finally, we’ll say that Steve Asmussen knows how to bring a horse to the big race, and that his relatively paired last two speed figures of 96-94 gave him the necessary base to move up in the Kentucky Derby.
If he loses … We’ll say that this horse had seven lifetime starts and just one win, and hasn’t made any obvious improvement in any of his past five races (if anything you could argue he regressed, finishing third and fourth in his last two). And that with five races in a row without a break between any, the Derby marks his sixth race in a row -- a lifetime of racing in this day and age.
In short … If you want to throw him into the bottom of your exotics, fine. I’m not saying there’s absolutely no chance for him to win at the longer distance and if things go differently up front, but I just feel like we know what we have here, and he hasn’t shown anything remotely close to what a Derby winner needs.
14) #12 ENTICED (http://www.pedigreequery.com/enticed5), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that he was fouled badly in the Wood, and the fact that he still ran a 99 speed figure and finished second showed plenty of moxie that he would need in the Derby. We’ll note that his 104 speed figure in the Gotham was one of the better from this class, and the fact that he was able to do that at a mile when you could argue this son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO and MINESHAFT will get better going longer. We’ll say he never ran worse than third with Junior Alvarado on his back, and that Kiaran McLaughlin knows how to bring a horse into a big race. And we’ll note how he sat relatively close to the pace in most of his races -- most of which were rather fast-paced -- and still stayed on well. He also won at Churchill in the Jockey Club last Nov. 25, showing that he had at least some affinity for the strip. Finally, we’ll note that whether the Wood was a bounce or he just ran slower due to the foul, he was clearly ready for another move forward in the Derby.
If he loses … We’ll note that his best performance came going a flat mile, and that it was obvious that he was not going to beat VINO ROSSO regardless of the foul. TIZ MISCHIEF, a failed Triple Crown horse, beat him in the Holy Bull and was only a head away in the Jockey Club, and since then -- and really in his whole career -- the best horse he beat was probably FREE DROP BILLY. He’s been bested by VINO ROSSO, AUDIBLE, FREE DROP BILLY (the race before), FIRENZE FIRE and GOOD MAGIC. We’ll say that McLaughlin hasn’t been particularly good on the Triple Crown trail lately, with FROSTED failing to do much to challenge AMERICAN PHAROAH a few years ago and the spectacular burnout of MOHAYMEN.
In short … I do think he should have been made the winner of the Wood, even though I also think he wasn’t going to beat VINO ROSSO regardless. If his Gotham effort had come at a longer distance against better horses, I might be a believer. But ultimately he seems to me to be a good, not great, horse. I can’t really envision a scenario in which he wins the race, because he doesn’t seem to be the “best” horse when it comes to really anything. He’s a middle mover, but he doesn’t have a particularly strong middle move. His only real hope would be that he improves with the extra distance, but his late pace figures don’t indicate that, either.
Bombs Away (Bottom-feeding exotic contenders):
13) #15 INSTILLED REGARD (http://www.pedigreequery.com/instilled+regard), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that he had no chance in the Santa Anita Derby, a paceless race in which he was dead last at the first call, and he actually only lost two lengths the rest of the race -- meaning he finished strongly enough to indicate that had they gone a bit faster up front, he might have been able to close the gap. And we’ll also note that it was his first race off a layoff, so of course we could have expected him to run better in his second race back off the bench. Finally, his speed figure of 102 in the Santa Anita Derby was not half bad, and in fact better than many other contenders. We’ll note that despite being a son of a FORESTRY mare (a noted sprint sire), his dosage was a surprisingly low 1.59 with a CD of .32 -- one of the better marks in the field for running a route. We’ll note that he was the forgotten horse involved in the blanket SOLOMINI/MCKINZIE finish in the Los Al Futurity last December, and he turned in a very professional victory in the Lecomte back in January. Finally, regardless of any pedigree analysis, it’s obvious he was well-regarded as a youngster -- his owners paid $1.05 million for him in March 2017.
If he loses … We’ll question what his excuse was in the Risen Star, when he had two longshot winners in dead aim at the top of the stretch and simply didn’t respond and ended up fourth. And regardless of the excuses at Santa Anita, he lacked enough punch to stay close early in a paceless race, and made zero impression at any point. His Lecomte win was of the garden trip variety over a laughable group of horses, and with just $294,000 in earnings, he’s second-last only to the thrice-raced HOFBURG despite having seven career starts.
In short … When it comes to absurd longshots, I have to admit that I like this one better than most. Now, when I say absurd, I mean I’d have to get more than 50/1 to consider betting him -- highly unlikely in the Derby, of course -- but there are enough reasons to believe he could improve more than most other horses. Whether that’s anywhere near good enough to win this race is the main question, and I readily admit it’s probably not. But I would bet on anything at the right price, so I’m not saying NEVER with this one.
12) #2 FREE DROP BILLY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that if there was ever a classic pedigree, it’s that of a UNION RAGS - GIANT’S CAUSEWAY dam union. And that his grinding, keep coming style lended itself to the added distance of the Derby very well. And we’ll say that his prep season was ideal for getting ready -- a couple of third-place finishes and a second-place finish off the bench in the Holy Bull. He ran well but never all-out, and it set him up perfectly for moving forward in the Derby from the No. 2 post.
If he loses … We’ll say that pedigree by itself isn’t enough; he never ran well enough to win a race like this, and that wasn’t going to change against 19 other horses. That he had no real excuse in the Gotham, and even though it was at a mile, he was actually losing, not gaining, ground late. And that while his pedigree says he should want to go long, he showed more punch in shorter races.
In short … He just never has run well enough to win this race. The pedigree makes me think he could certainly just keep coming late, but there’s not much else to give me hope here. I’m more interested in him if he comes back for the Belmont, but I could see him limping up for a third- or fourth-place finish late.
Overrated (clap, clap … clap, clap):
11) #9 HOFBURG (http://www.pedigreequery.com/hofburg2), 20/1
If he wins … We’ll note how the normally uber-conservative Bill Mott threw him right into the deep end of the Florida Derby after breaking his maiden in early-March, and how HOFBURG delivered with a big move forward in his three start, going from a 96 speed figure in his maiden breaker to a 104 in running second to AUDIBLE. We’ll say that after progression like that in his first two starts of the year, of course he was going to move up after the layoff. We’ll note that we should have listened to all the wise guys that climbed aboard his bandwagon, and that as a son of TAPIT and a TOUCH GOLD (winner of the 1997 Belmont) dam, he had plenty of classic-winning bonafides in his pedigree.
If he loses … We’ll say that his 104 speed figure was clearly pace-aided, and that while obviously he and AUDIBLE ran away from the rest of the field, the rest of the field wasn’t much to look at it after the early pace cooked so many of them. And while Irad Ortiz is certainly no slouch, he’s the lesser half of the Ortiz brothers, so Jose jumping ship to stick with GOOD MAGIC said at least a little something. We’ll question whether Mott was just asking for too much and starting to feel a little pressure about never having won a Kentucky Derby in the late stages of his career. Finally, we’ll say that he barely held on in his maiden breaking win while drifting late, and that was just two months ago. One pace-aided second-place finish almost by default does not a Derby winner make.
In short … There’s a lot of wise guy buzz on HOFBURG, but the only angle that really speaks to me is the human one, i.e. that Mott wouldn’t be bringing him here if he didn’t think he had a real serious shot here. I just don’t think anything he’s done on the track is that impressive, and that Florida Derby race was just a case where all of the other contenders got absolutely cooked through a :46 1/5 half -- in other words, he finished second basically by default. I’d be happy to be wrong and see Mott get one, but they’re asking a lot from a horse that I don’t think has shown that much. And wise guy horses in the Derby are currently 0 for 1,327.
10) #19 NOBLE INDY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/noble+indy), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll laud his career to date, as he’s never run worse than a 95 speed figure in four lifetime starts, winning three of them. We’ll say that it’s even more impressive because he dealt with some bumping in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, and the fact that he somehow held on to win the Louisiana Derby speaks volumes about his stamina -- he was able to sit just a length off of a pace that was rather blistering -- :46 ⅗ to the half -- and still hold off closers like LONE SAILOR and MY BOY JACK. We’ll say that Florent Geroux was a great pickup for Todd Pletcher after Velazquez got off, and that obviously Todd knows how to win the Derby now. We’ll point out that he beat the well-regarded MISSISSIPPI in his second career start, which was a jump up to an optional claimer in early-January. And we’ll say that having A.P. INDY as his paternal grandfather and STORM CAT as his maternal great-grandfather obviously shined through in his pedigree.
If he loses … We’ll say that the Louisiana Derby was a pretty sad race, and that LONE SAILOR and MY BOY JACK not going by him obviously said more negative things about them than good about NOBLE INDY considering that he came home his final three furlongs in an interminable :38 ⅘. We’ll say that the damside pedigree is incredibly sprint-oriented and that it was absolutely dreaming to think he could get ten furlongs. We’ll note that Johnny V. obviously thought more of VINO ROSSO than NOBLE INDY, and that he didn’t have much of an excuse for not winning the Risen Star. And that while Geroux is no stranger to big races, he was sort of plucked off the scrap heap here by Pletcher after his go-to riders all ended up on his other (better) mounts.
In short … If his Louisiana Derby victory was over horses that I perceived to be of real quality, then I would make him a real contender for the Roses as it sure looked like he was digging in late. It truly is remarkable that he won the Louisiana Derby going nine furlongs as his damside pedigree is so sprint-oriented. And he did it in truly impressive fashion, too, sitting right on a hot pace and then keeping on, while others near the pace wilted. But the reality seems to be that he was just up against some sub-standard horses, and I think at least half of the Kentucky Derby field is better than any horse he’s ever even run against at all. He could be a shooting star that’s ready for even more improvement, but with four straight starts sans a rest, I would be pretty surprised to see him pull this off going ten furlongs.
9) #16 MAGNUM MOON (http://www.pedigreequery.com/magnum+moon), 6/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll ask ourselves how we could ignore an undefeated horse with a beautiful pedigree that was able to win both with and without the lead by at least two lengths, and that was trained by the defending Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Not only that, he had been working bullets in his final three workouts.
If he loses … We’ll point out that he never ran faster than a 100 speed figure, and he was the beneficiary of being on/near slow paces in each one of his races. We’ll point out that Saez just doesn’t compare to some of the other riders in this race, and that the best horse he beat prior to the Derby was the talented but as-yet unable to put it all together SOLOMINI.
In short … I just don’t have a lot to say about this horse, I guess. To me, the most impressive race he ran may have been the OC he ran in at Tampa on Feb. 15, and that’s only because he was a few lengths off of a slow early pace … but it was a five-horse field and he was 1/9. What I like the most is his pedigree, but I will even poke a hole in that -- MALIBU MOON doesn’t have quite the classic distance oomph that A.P. INDY did. And, one final hole … he only sold for $380,000. “Only” feels a little funny to say there, but I would expect a horse with his kind of pedigree to go for closer a million if he was perceived as that truly special as a youngster.
Longshot delights
8) #4 FLAMEAWAY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/flameaway), 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll note that he only ran worse than second in six career dirt starts, and that trip was troubled early in his first career start on a fast track. We’ll note his turf prowess -- he won the Kitten’s Joy turf stake at Gulfstream in January -- can be a good thing at Churchill, and in his three main track starts this year, he ran speed figures of 101-97-97 -- which would indicate he not only can run fast enough to be in contention, but that he should be primed for a move forward after back-to-back 97 figs. We’ll note that he beat two quality horses in CATHOLIC BOY and VINO ROSSO in the Sam Davis, then ran second after a tough start in a slow-paced race (Tampa Bay Derby), and then was second again -- and a gritty, never-giving-up second at that -- in the Blue Grass, in which he lost the lead at the top of the stretch but then kept going and didn’t lose any ground throughout the lane. We’ll say we should have known he was very good to stick with GOOD MAGIC like that while visually looking like he was still striding out and wanted more, a notion which would be supported by both his late pace figures and his pedigree -- which is impressive as a son of SCAT DADDY and a FUSAICHI PEGASUS (2000 Derby winner) mare, and that obviously the connections liked what they saw to go to $400,000 for him in August 2016.
If he loses … We’ll note that he hasn’t won a race on a fast dirt track in which he didn’t have the lead at the first and second calls, and that frankly he was fortunate that the races he ran in this year had relatively slow paces -- so of course he SHOULD have stuck around late, and he SHOULD have come home relatively strongly. And we’ll say the fact that he hasn’t been favored in a race since starting his career at Woodbine last May should have told us a little something about his real quality. Finally, after the CLASSIC EMPIRE debacle last year, we’ll say we should have known better than to trust Mark Casse to bring a horse to the Derby in good shape, and that with four starts and no break in 2018, FLAMEAWAY had left his best on the track already.
In short … There’s no doubt that FLAMEAWAY has been relatively lucky in his races this year to get to the lead and have relatively slow paces, and the reality is certainly that he’s just not as fast as some of the other horses here. However, that’s no different from MAGNUM MOON, who will likely go off as the second or third choice. The tough thing for FLAMEAWAY is figuring out how he can win. Is he likely to be on the lead with PROMISES FULFILLED entered? No. Has he run as fast as many of the other ostensible early speed horses? No. That’s not to say he can’t -- but we don’t know if he hasn’t because he can’t or simply because he hasn’t needed to. If he gets to the lead or can sit just off of it (which I do believe is the most likely scenario), I love his potential to pull a SHACKLEFORD (perhaps my favorite horse ever) and just forget that he’s supposed to stop. I’m not sure he’s good enough at the end of the day, but at 30/1 or so? I’ll take my chances.
7) #17 SOLOMINI (http://www.pedigreequery.com/solomini), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll note that he’s never run worse than third in six career starts and, although he was placed third after being DQ’d, did cross the wire ahead of the well-regarded MCKINZIE and INSTILLED REGARD back in the Los Al Futurity last December. We’ll say that as a son of CURLIN and a STORM CAT dam, he was built for classic success, and that obviously Baffert knows how to bring a horse to the big dance. We’ll say Prat is one of the best young riders in the game and that his adept ability in tightly-packed turf races transferred well to the 20-horse Derby. We’ll note that he had zero chance to catch easy leaders MAGNUM MOON and QUIP in the Arkansas Derby, and was bumped and had to be steadied as the favorite in the Rebel. Finally, while he’s always worked relatively fast, we’ll point to his last two bullet works on April 8 and April 23, as well as the way he finished up a six-furlong work in :12 flat on April 29 as signs of his readiness.
If he loses … We’ll say that we were trying too hard to see something that just wasn’t there -- that speed figures of 95-96 this year were just too far below the top echelon of horses to think he could compete. We’ll say that good horses make their own good luck, and he just wasn’t good enough to do that. We’ll say we were stupid for betting a horse that surely took some money just because of the AMERICAN PHAROAH tie-ins.
In short … To win the Kentucky Derby or any horse race for that matter -- or at least to be worth a bet -- a horse either needs to be what you believe is the best horse, close enough to the best that you believe he can win if things go just the right way, or -- and this is where you make it or lose it as a handicapper -- have the potential to improve enough to win despite showing no such evidence on paper. To me, SOLOMINI is the best example of that kind of horse in the Derby field. Bob Baffert has obviously been frustrated with him -- he described him recently as “trying to ride a bicycle with the brake on,” but he hasn’t been so frustrated that he’s not running him here. Remember: Baffert has the morning line favorite in JUSTIFY. If he thought JUSTIFY was unbeatable, would he bother running SOLOMINI at all? Maybe he would because the owners wanted to, but it’s a legitimate question. He very well may run the race of his life and still not be good enough to win, but we haven’t seen him run well at all this year, and he still made it here, so he could be sitting on a huge effort at a huge price.
Bright Lights
6) #14 MENDELSSOHN (http://www.pedigreequery.com/mendelssohn11), 5/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that his Dubai performance was supernatural and that of course a half brother to BEHOLDER was going to be head and shoulders above a typical three-year-old class. We’ll point out that he sold for an unholy $3 million at the 2016 Keeneland September sale, and of course they didn’t pay all that money for just another horse. We’ll say that Ryan Moore is the best jockey in the world and wasn’t skipping the 2000 Guineas in his homeland for nothing, and that the possibly best trainer in the world, Aiden O’Brien, was overdue to get a Kentucky Derby win. And we’ll note that he’s already shipped to America and won, and he’s already shipped to Dubai and won, so why would one more overseas trip bother him?
If he loses … We’ll say that the track in Dubai was incredibly speed/inside-favoring, and that most races on the card were a merry go-round, with horses not changing positions much all the way around the track, and many winners on the lead drawing off to win with aplomb. And his closest pursuer was a filly. We’ll say that Ryan Moore might be the best jockey in a European grass race, but not against 19 other horses on dirt. We’ll say that despite the $3 million purchase price, his damside pedigree looks iffy at distance, and BEHOLDER always had distance questions at a classic distance. We’ll say that they spent so much on him and sent him to O’Brien because, despite his Dubai win, he is probably best on turf and has a future there as soon as this summer. And we’ll say that horses from Dubai have always struggled with the turnaround time and the ship, and he’s now shipped from Ireland to Dubai to Louisville within a span of two months -- very hard for any horse to handle.
In short … Because I am insane, I woke up at 6:30 on Dubai World Cup day and watched every race that day … after handicapping many of them late the night before. And there is 0 doubt that the track was a conveyor belt -- other than the Sprint (which MIND THAT BISCUITS somehow won wide and off the pace, which remains mind blowing how good he must have been that day), every horse that got to the lead and got to the rail either won or held on for a placing. This was the case the entire meet, and in fact I bet RAYYA (the aforementioned filly) solely because I expected her to get to the rail and the lead. Well, she didn’t, but she did have the rail, and she wound up second. So with the disclaimer that he may very well be the biggest freak of them all (his Thoro Graph number for the race is reportedly far and away the best in the field), I’ll play against that track bias-aided performance and against the tough ship and against Ryan Moore (I will always hate him after his ride on HUNTER’S LIGHT in the 2013 Arlington Million).
5) #5 AUDIBLE (http://www.pedigreequery.com/audible8), 8/1 ML:
If he wins … we’ll say that his late pace figures stood head and shoulders above most of the field, despite very different paces in both of his prep wins at Gulfstream. And we’ll say that they were the obvious indicator that we should have ignored his pedigree and its apparent distance limitations because CALIFORNIA CHROME and AMERICAN PHAROAH had similar pedigree questions, and they were obviously not so hampered by them. We’ll say that Castellano got off of BOLT D’ORO for the chance to ride this one again, and of course that meant more than just loyalty because this is the Kentucky Derby, after all. Finally, we’ll say that his speed figures of 105-107 were close enough to being paired to make him ready for yet another leap forward.
If he loses … we’ll say, yeah, there was no way that horse was EVER getting 10 furlongs! The pedigree is just that sprint-oriented, how could we ever ignore that? We’ll say he got absolutely perfect trips given how the pace of his two preps played out, and that Velazquez sticking with VINO ROSSO over AUDIBLE was an obvious sign of who he thought the better horse was.
In short … Every year lately, it seems, there is a top horse that I really just don't like without a whole lot of reason. And, every year, it seems, that horse ends up winning the Kentucky Derby. This year, AUDIBLE is that horse (you’ve been warned). My thing is this: Beyond just the huge pedigree question, Pletcher was ready to run him in an 80k optional turf claimer when he freaked and won by the race off the turf by nearly 10 lengths with a 94 BRIS figure. Then he made a big middle move into a rapidly slowing pace and held off FREE DROP BILLY for a 105 figure in the Holy Bull, and then dropped far back off a blistering early pace in the Florida Derby before looping the field and winning that race by three lengths, as well. But who has he beaten?! FREE DROP BILLY in his first start off a long layoff is about it! HOFBURG seems plenty promising but had just broken his maiden the race before, and the rest of his competition in the race toasted itself with the early pace. I’ll close my eyes and trust my gut and pass yet again.
The Proven Commodities
4) #18 VINO ROSSO (http://www.pedigreequery.com/vino+rosso5), 12/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say he finally put it together in the Wood (a race in which ENTICED was never going to beat him despite the bumping) after some rather odd efforts at Tampa, and that the way he re-broke late in the Sam F. Davis showed he had some extra gears that showcased real talent. And we’ll say we should have known that with two 100+ speed figures under his belt in the last three starts, a bounce wasn’t likely and he had reason to move forward. We’ll note that John Velazquez got off of AUDIBLE, a horse who had put in some seemingly superior efforts (winning races with better speed figures), to ride this guy, and obviously that meant something. And we’ll laud the pedigree as a son of CURLIN and a STREET CRY mare, a pedigree that obviously jumped off the page as he was a $400,000 purchase at Keeneland in 2016.
If he loses … We’ll say that being nine lengths -- further than he’s ever been off the pace in any prior race -- was the perfect spot to be with a :46 ⅗ first half in the Wood, and that while it may be true that ENTICED very likely wasn’t going to beat him, he clearly impeded him down the stretch and did anything but keep a straight course. We’ll note that his April 20 workout was rather slow for a Pletcher horse, and that he may not have jumped off AUDIBLE for just Pletcher as much as he did it for the vaunted Repole-Pletcher-Velazquez combination that has so much history. And we’ll say that if you ignore the Wood, he was fourth, beaten sixth lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby, and third, beaten more than a length, in the Sam Davis -- his only two stakes tries. We’ll say that the Wood was a fluke and only the perfect setup got him home, and ENTICED is far from the top tier of horses in this race.
In short … There are a lot of positives with this horse if you believe that not just any horse with the setup he had in the Wood could have gotten the job done. My take? I rewatched the race and Johnny really asks him for run from the get-go, and really doesn’t let up on him the whole way around. He idled a bit on the backstretch -- not unlike the Sam Davis -- and you start to think that he’s not going anywhere. But then he creeps up just a bit on the turn and Johnny starts showing him the whip at the midway point, and at that point he starts to actually make a visual move. By the time they hit the top of the stretch, he’s in the lead, at which Johnny V. basically points him at the rail and they herd ENTICED over at least five paths. The good news from all of that is that obviously he doesn’t mind trading paint with other horses, and obviously he has a few gears to go through in the course of a race. I do think he’ll take some money and get bet down a little bit -- so at the end of the day I likely won’t bet him to win -- but I do think he still offers enough value to include in exotics.
3) #6 GOOD MAGIC (http://www.pedigreequery.com/good+magic2), 12/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say Chad Brown is a genius and prepared the champ wonderfully for this race, never having him fully cranked and knowing full well that he had enough of a base with his BC Juvenile win to take things slowly in this calendar year. He was so much the best in the Blue Grass that he ran 8-10 lengths further than his closest pursuers, and we should have known he’d only get better going ten furlongs as a son of CURLIN and a HARD SPUN dam. And the combination of Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown is as good as it gets in the game right now. We’ll say we knew he’s not a bounce candidate as he paired 98 speed figures in his last two, and he should enjoy some extra pace to run at.
If he loses … We’ll say it was obvious that he didn’t improve at age 3, running only a pair of 98 speed figures, and we would have liked to see at least a little improvement. He looked very one-paced in both of his races in 2018, and we were at least a little worried about his feet posing problems. We’ll say the fact that he was only able to beat FLAMEAWAY by 1.5 lengths rather than drawing off in the lane of the Blue Grass spoke volumes about his lack of brilliance.
In short … There’s actually not a whole lot to not like about GOOD MAGIC, other than the fact that he hasn’t run as fast as many of the other horses have this year. On the other hand, there’s not a lot he’s done this year to get excited about -- sure, he won the Blue Grass, but visually it didn’t look great and numbers-wise it didn’t look great. But he has run fast enough in the past (JUSTIFY and BOLT D’ORO notwithstanding), and the fact that he hasn’t had to shoot his big gun yet this year is just as promising as having actually done it. He is Chekhov’s Gun personified (horse-ified?).
The Two to Beat
2) #11 BOLT D'ORO (http://www.pedigreequery.com/bolt+doro), 8/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll note how rare such a great distance pedigree is these days (MEDAGLIA D’ORO by an A.P. INDY dam) and that we should have known he would only improve going longer. We’ll say of course he lost to JUSTIFY in his prep -- he didn’t NEED to win that race, so why would he have been fully cranked? The fact that he still ran second by just three lengths while chasing a loose leader on a slow pace showed just he good he is. And how could we ignore Victor Espinoza, rider of the only Triple Crown winner in my lifetime, as well as Derby winner CALIFORNIA CHROME, getting aboard the most impressive two-year-old of last year (sorry, GOOD MAGIC).
If he loses … We’ll say that Castellano getting off to ride AUDIBLE spoke volumes. We’ll say that he hadn’t crossed the line first in either of his races this year (and not at all since Sept. 30, 2017), and that he had dead aim on JUSTIFY but couldn’t even touch a horse that had only two prior lifetime starts. We’ll say that trainer Mick Ruis has no idea what he’s doing compared to the Pletchers and Bafferts of the world, and that despite his Triple Crown success, Espinoza can’t hold a candle to guys like Castellano and Smith. And we’ll say his April 22 work where he went fast early and slow late was a harbinger of problems.
In short … If Castellano was still aboard, I would be as close to all-in on this horse as I can get. He’s got the baseline of two-year-old success and his three-year-old races have set him up to get back there or beyond. He lost the BC Juvenile after a rough start and wide trip, so it’s not as if he can’t possibly lose -- but if he gets a fair pace and a fair trip, I don’t think you can say with any confidence that he’s not just as good as JUSTIFY. He’s a bet.
1) #7 JUSTIFY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/justify10), 3/1 ML:
If he wins ... We’ll ask ourselves how we could ignore the horse with the highest last-out speed figure … a horse that had never won a race by less than three lengths. A horse that was trained by the only trainer to win a Triple Crown in the past 40 years … a guy who has won four Kentucky Derbies. Not only that, this horse was ridden by the best “big money” rider in the game, Mike Smith. And this horse’s pedigree (SCAT DADDY and a GHOSTZAPPER mare) makes extra distance seem like no problem at all. His worst speed figure of his career came in his first start, and even that was 100. His past two figures were 114 and 104, with the 104 coming in his second start in the mud, and the 114 being a victory over BOLT D’ORO. He put up triple-digit pace figures at every call, with each one faster than the last: 100-105-117, coming home his final three furlongs in 37 seconds flat. That is scary good, and the way he turned away the experienced BOLT D’ORO was impressive.
If he loses … We’ll ask ourselves how we could bet against the curse of Apollo, particularly when his first start didn’t come until Feb. 18! How could we bet on a horse with only one stakes race in his life ... in which he beat a grand total of six other horses. He beat a grand total of 14 horses in his first three races, and we expected him to beat 19 others in the Kentucky Derby?! We should have known that virtually any front running horse in the field that got away with splits of :47 4/5 and 1:12 3/5 all by themselves would have drawn off to win the Santa Anita Derby with ease. Finally, we’ll ask how we could have bet a horse that reminded us so much of BODEMEISTER -- the front-running Baffert freak from 2012 that laid down fractions of :22.32, :45.39, 1:09.8 and 1:35.19 in that Derby and barely got run down by I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. We’ll say that he’s squeezed three races into the last 2.5 months already, and the prospect of a bounce was also in play.
In short … He’s head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of what he’s done so far. He’s not a need the lead type, and he’s in a nice post where even if he does have a really bad start (which he’s not at all known for), he should be able to recover and still work out a reasonable trip. I’m not tremendously worried about the curse of Apollo in general, but I am a little bit worried that his last race was his “big shot” and that he’ll regress a bit in the Derby -- he *needed* to win or at least place second in the Santa Anita Derby to make it to Churchill at all, so unless he’s an enormous, enormous freak (which he may well be), he was likely at least a little bit closer to 100% than BOLT D’ORO. And despite the lofty full-race triple-digit BRIS pace figures, I do think that the lone lead he had made things pretty darn easy for him. At the same time … he straight up put BOLT D’ORO away in the stretch; it’s not like he just barely held on. I’m as close to betting a Derby favorite as I’ve ever been. And yet …
My Wagers
It should be pretty obvious that I have at least some interest in six horses in the race, probably in this order (in terms of value): BOLT D’ORO, SOLOMINI, GOOD MAGIC, FLAMEAWAY, JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO
The goal here is to profit, of course, and ultimately while I’ll include VINO ROSSO in exotics, I don’t think he’s worthy of a win bet. As for JUSTIFY, I don’t know if he’s necessarily value, but I also think he's a plenty likely winner and don’t want to lose money if he wins.
So, at morning line odds, my wagers might look something like this.
$60 on BOLT D’ORO at 8/1 (profit $480 if he wins)
$16 on SOLOMINI at 30/1 (profit $480 if he wins)
$32 on GOOD MAGIC at 12/1 (profit $384 if he wins)
$12 on FLAMEAWAY at 30/1 (profit $360 if he wins)
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$120 risked on those four
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$40 on JUSTIFY at 3/1 (profit $120 if he wins)
Finally, it's the Derby, so you have to throw in a little bit of exotics action. I'll key both BOLT D'ORO and SOLOMINI in all spots of the trifecta along with the four mentioned above: GOOD MAGIC, FLAMEAWAY, JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO.
Good luck everyone!
That’s right … 10 years. It started small -- both in distribution (five people on an email list) and length (no more than a few sentences on each horse). Now ... well, the distribution probably isn’t much higher, but we’re pushing 20 pages again this year.
I can't say that my track record in this race has been all that great, but that’s OK -- the journey is the destination. The process is the purpose. And so on. I enjoy following these horses and agonizing over all of their races for months, and then bringing it all together into a (not so) little package for your reading pleasure.
I’ve changed up the format a little bit basically every year, and this year I am trying something new yet again. In past years, I’ve basically had predetermined opinions on each horse, and I’ve then written a narrative to support that opinion. That’s maybe useful to everyone who bothers to read, but I didn’t necessarily get much out of the massive brain dump.
Now, those who know me well know that I am never satisfied with the result of a race because of two main reasons: 1) I should have bet more (when I had the winner), and 2) I KNEW the winner going to win because X, Y and Z, I'm an idiot (because I didn't have the winner). The fact that I never mentioned X, Y and Z before the race doesn’t matter at that point … I just KNEW it.
(Yes, obviously this is a running joke with my friends.)
So, this year, I wanted to try not only making myself be a little bit more objective, but also to address all of the positive and negative factors for each horse BEFORE the race rather than concocting all of these reasons after the fact.
With that said, the format of this year's preview is simple: 1) What I would say about the horse if he wins, 2) What I would say about the horse if he doesn't win, and 3) Each horse is wrapped up with my opinion that you can take or leave.
But first, a bit of background that will hopefully help you understand the rest of this preview. The ultimate question we’re trying to answer is pretty simple: Which horse is going to run 10 furlongs in the least amount of time on May 5? And the main ways we’ll try to determine that by answering a number of sub questions:
How fast has the horse actually run in previous races? (“Speed figure”, “fig”, “BRIS”)
- The old adage that time only matters in jail is generally true, but if you adjust for things like the overall speed of the track, then you start to get a more accurate picture of how fast the horse can actually run. This is what BRIS speed figures (and other speed figures like them) attempt to do.
- Usain Bolt is the fastest man ever, but if I could run on a pristine track against him running through two feet of water, I might have a chance of beating him. (OK, still probably not, but you get the idea.)
- This is an absurd example, of course, but the point is that you absolutely cannot compare raw times from track to track, and you generally can’t even compare raw times from the same track on different days (or even in the same day). Tracks are just too different in the actual composition of the dirt, the way they hold moisture (or not), the way they’re banked, how wide the turns are, the way the wind blows, and even down to the way races are timed. In short, a horse covering 9 furlongs in 1:49 in New York might have actually run a fair amount faster than a horse covering the same distance in the same time in California.
- Fortunately, “speed figures” can give you a pretty good idea of how fast a horse actually ran by making certain adjustments for “how fast” the track was playing -- in other words, to harken back to my absurd example, if Usain Bolt ran the 100 meter dash in two feet of water, let’s say his time was 13 seconds. I, on the other hand, ran my 100 meter dash in 12 seconds. In terms of raw time, you would expect me to win, right? But if you adjusted for the track surface, Usain Bolt’s speed figure might be 120, and mine might be 70, which is to say there is no chance I have of beating Usain Bolt in a race on the same surface unless he suffers an unspeakable injury.
- The same is true in horse racing. At some level of speed difference, there is virtually no chance for a horse to beat any other horse.
- While no speed figure (BRIS is just one of many) is perfect and they are often overplayed by the public (because what’s easier than looking at two numbers and betting the horse that has the highest one?), they give you a reasonable idea of how a horse performs on a race-to-race basis.
- The average winning speed figure in the Kentucky Derby according to the BRIS par is 102, which is in “great” territory -- to really over generalize, anything above 100 is great. 90-99 is good. 80-89 is OK. 70-79 is below average, and below 70 is generally garbage.
Is there reason to believe that the horse COULD have fun faster? (“Pace”, “Pace figure”, “EP”, “LP”, “fraction”, “trouble”, “bumped”, “steadied”, “wide”)
- Now that we’ve established that it is possible to deduct a horse’s general ability to run fast, it’s time to consider what factors in those past races might have either helped the horse to put in his absolute best effort, or if there were extenuating factors that resulted in that horse maybe not running as fast as he could have.
- I’ll use another human reference here because it’s more relatable to most. If you want to run a marathon of 26.2 miles in under four hours, you have to run each mile at an average pace of 9 minutes and 9 seconds.
- Since that’s an “average” pace, there are, of course, many ways to complete the race in that time. You could run every mile in exactly 9 minutes and 9 seconds and meet your goal. You could run the first half of the race (13.1 miles) with a pace of 8 minutes per mile, which would leave you 2 hours and 15 minutes to complete the final 13.1 miles to complete at a pace of close to 10 minutes and 20 seconds per mile. Or you could do the opposite, starting off more slowly and finishing up strongly.
- Horses are no different, and some of them like to run as fast as they can, as far as they can, while others run at virtually the same steady pace and just keep going at that same, steady pace, further than the rest.
- With very few exceptions, you don’t see fast times in races that are run slowly early. To go back to the marathon example, the winners of these races start running fast and they just keep clicking. The Boston Marathon record holder had a pace of 4:42 per mile. If you were behind the 6:00 pacer for half the race, it would be simply impossible to win the race in the second half even if you had all the energy in the world left -- you spent half the race going too slow. And no matter how good you are at conserving your energy, nobody can sprint as quickly after running any stretch as they could if they just stepped into the blocks.
- Again, horses are no different. Even when running just a quarter mile, the absolute max speed a horse could hit is about 20 seconds (you rarely see faster than 21 seconds in a real race, and less so the longer they run). If the first half mile of a one-mile race is run in :50, there is virtually no chance that the final time of the race would be less than 1:35. On the other hand, if the first half mile of that mile-long race is run in :44, the odds are good the final time will be less than 1:35.
- In short, the pace of a race matters quite a bit when it comes to the final time. If a horse comes from behind to win a slow-paced race, that’s much more impressive than a horse in the lead that wins a slow-paced race, and in both cases you would expect the final times to be relatively slow. In both cases, when horses do something you wouldn’t necessarily expect (i.e. come from behind to win a slow-paced race or turn in a fast final time while leading a slow pace), you can reasonably project them to improve their speed figure if the pace were faster (perhaps less so for a frontrunner than a closer, but that can cut both ways).
- Additionally, none of these races are run in vacuums and they are not time trials, so there are also extenuating circumstances relating to where on a given track they were (if they had to run much further than other opponents) or how the track was “playing” (due to things like “kickback” -- basically how much dust flies in the face of horses -- or how firm the ground is on the side by the rail vs. further out on the track, etc.).
- Pedigree analysis is a very important part of horse racing -- in fact, one of the big problems facing the racing industry is because the real money of the game is in breeding and selling horses based on their pedigrees (which means the best horses get retired early so they can make as many babies as possible).
- Much of the analysis of horses looks at the sires -- in the case of the paternal side, that’s their direct father. On the maternal side, it’s their grandfather.
- If you have a horse that is the son of a classic winner by a dam that is the daughter of a classic winner, the odds are that 1) the horse was probably pretty expensive and 2) the horse will probably do well at a classic distance.
- On the other hand, horses that have more sprint-oriented family members are deemed less likely to excel running 10 furlongs. To go back to the Usain Bolt example (I’m in deep enough now that I’m just sticking with it), you wouldn’t expect his sons and daughters to be marathon runners someday.
- But pedigrees are as much an art as science, and they can be misleading, and sometimes, you would never expect a horse to be able to run as far as he can, as fast as he can. Some of the most recent winners (including ALWAYS DREAMING and CALIFORNIA CHROME) had major questions marks when it came to running 10 furlongs due to their pedigrees.
- So we also look at the way horses finish up in races (not only how fast but how they stride out in the stretch), how they gallop out even after the wire (do they stop abruptly or keep going?) and even their workouts for some clues as to whether they’re going to improve at a longer distance than they’ve ever run before.
- We can’t talk to horses or understand their motivations, but we can understand the people involved. The decisions they make and the things they say all tell us at least a little something about the horses involved.
- In the case of this year’s Kentucky Derby, there are a number of jockey changes that are pretty interesting -- the jockeys can reasonably be assumed to make the choice of the horse they think is most likely to win.
- Or can they? In some cases, the jockey might stay with a horse for a trainer who he rides for frequently throughout the year instead of a relative no-name.
- It’s not obvious, of course, but you can try to make some inferences to sort out the motivations of the people involved … which might lead you to the most likely horse to win.
OK, you made it. That’s the preamble! Only 3.5 pages this year! Now it’s time for the race analysis itself.
There’s a narrative out there right now that this is the most wide-open and talented Derby in memory. Steve Haskin, he of the fantastic DERBY DOZEN series at Bloodhorse, has taken to calling the top contenders the “magnificent seven” (in this order): VINO ROSSO, GOOD MAGIC, JUSTIFY, BOLT D’ORO, AUDIBLE, MAGNUM MOON, MENDELSSOHN.
Steve has been doing this a long time and I never want to discount his opinion entirely, but while I can agree that there are seven horses who do truly look potentially magnificent, there are only two that have proven it to date.
The next five are question marks to various degrees -- there are two that are very solid that I don’t have many questions about but I’m also not sure can go fast enough, and then there are two that may well be superstars in the making, but that I have serious enough questions about that I can’t see backing them. Then there’s one in that group that I just don’t like at all.
From there, I have a few longshots that obviously I think are less likely to win than those I have ranked above them, but that I do think will offer value and are intriguing enough. After that, it’s a grab bag of horses with little to no chance in my mind. Sorry if your favorite horse shows up there -- it doesn’t necessarily mean I don’t think he can finish in the top four, but it does mean I don’t think they have much of a chance of winning.
Here's the field in reverse order of win probability:
Nope, nope, nope
20) #13 BRAVAZO (http://www.pedigreequery.com/bravazo), 50/1:
If he wins … We’ll laud D. Wayne Lukas for putting Luis Contreras on the horse for the first time and note that other than the Lousiana Derby when his goose was cooked through a :46.6 half in which he sat third early, he had shown a nice improvement as a three-year-old with speed figures of 98-96. And that in the Risen Star, he came home his final 2.5 furlongs in 30 seconds flat to give himself a 100 late pace figure.
If he loses … We’ll say he got a garden trip in the Risen Star and that obviously there wasn’t much quality in the race since he won at odds of 21/1 and SNAPPER SINCLAIR ran second at even bigger odds of 41/1. We’ll say that while the Louisiana Derby pace was hot, that didn’t seem to hurt NOBLE INDY (the eventual winner who was even closer to the pace). And that pedigree? AWESOME AGAIN is a fine distance influence as a sire, but the damside looks quite sprint-oriented.
In short … It’s just really hard to see how this horse a) has the ability to improve going longer and b) has run anywhere near well enough to win a race like this. A complete toss.
19) #1 FIRENZE FIRE (http://www.pedigreequery.com/firenze+fire), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that the nine career starts he’s had gave him a lot of experience heading into this horse racing version of bumper cars, and his general moxie and attitude helped bring out the deep influence of SECRETARIAT four generations back on his paternal side. And we’ll say that Paco Lopez getting on for the first time must have brought out a different side of him. And we’ll say, jeez, how stringent is the drug testing at the Derby?
If he loses … We’ll say, yeah, there was no way this horse that ran fourth in his last two starts (beaten by 9 and 11 lengths) and never ran better than a 96 speed figure (which happened last October) was going to jump up and run the race of his life with a new jockey on his back for the first time after a string of slow workouts.
In short … I would LOVE it if this horse wins the Derby because one of the best things I’ve seen this year from a horse was his second-place finish in the Withers -- while he actually ran fairly slow late after pressing some brisk early fractions, you frankly don’t see a horse TRY like that all that often. He is, as they say in the business, as game as they come. But … a son of POSEIDON’S WARRIOR getting 10 furlongs is kind of laughable, unfortunately. One interesting thing I read questioned if Paco -- who is relatively known for his success with front-running horses -- would try to send him to the lead given that he’s breaking from the inside post and he could get buried there if he doesn’t get away well. I don’t think this really makes a difference in his likelihood of winning, but such tactics could change the complexion of the race.
The valley of MEH
18) #8 LONE SAILOR (http://www.pedigreequery.com/lone+sailor3), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that his Louisiana Derby, when he popped off a 100 speed figure and ran second out of nowhere, was a sign that something changed and he figured this racing thing out after seven prior starts. And that his brisk :57.3 workout at Churchill on April 19 was a sign that he was ready for an even bigger step forward. And that with A.P. INDY a generation back on his paternal side and STORM CAT two back on his maternal side, that there was reason to believe he could get better going even longer.
If he loses … We’ll say that his 100 speed figure in the Louisiana Derby was aided by a very fast early pace (:46.3) and that the fact he’s 1-for-8 lifetime and hadn’t run better than a 90 figure in seven prior lifetime starts showed that the Louisiana Derby was a fluke. And that his Louisiana Derby wasn’t even that good -- he flattened out late and couldn’t go by NOBLE INDY, who had to run hard while closer to the pace the whole way. And that despite the classic influences, this pedigree might still lean sprint. Finally, we’ll say that even if the Louisiana Derby was that good, it made him an obvious bounce candidate in the Kentucky Derby.
In short … We would have to see a real pace meltdown for him to get involved late. The workout is the only thing that’s keeping him out of of the “nope, nope, nope” category.
17) #3 PROMISES FULFILLED (http://www.pedigreequery.com/promises+fulfilled), 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll point to his sire, SHACKLEFORD, as a horse that won the Preakness and led the Derby field into the stretch at big odds, as the reason his son, another plucky frontrunner, had the stamina and fight to get the job done as a horse that everyone just dismissed and allowed to get an easy lead. And we’ll credit Dale Romans and Corey Lanerie, two Churchill veterans, for their experience at the track. We’ll say that the Florida Derby was a complete throwout due to Robby Albarado’s boneheaded ride (:46.2 first half mile), and that Fountain of Youth was actually pretty impressive because, despite the easy early lead, he ran a :24.2 third quarter but still came home with a 102 late pace figure while pulling away to win by more than two lengths.
If he loses … We’ll say that as good as SHACKLEFORD was, he choked things up late in the Derby stretch because he simply was not a classic distance horse -- which was proven later in his career when he became a crack mile horse. We’ll say that he’s obviously a need-the-lead horse and he’s never won when the pace was faster than par for that class. And that other than his Fountain of Youth speed fig of 104 -- which came on a Gulfstream strip that can be speed-favoring -- he’s never run better than a 92 speed figure.
In short … I like any horse by SHACKLEFORD, but I would be pretty surprised if he was anywhere in the area code of the winner later. To be fair, he seems more likely than FIRENZE FIRE (for example) because there is the chance that he gets away solo and they let him click off a :48 3/5 and three quarters in 1:13 or so, but with all of the other speed and quality here, it seems highly unlikely.
16) #10 MY BOY JACK (http://www.pedigreequery.com/my+boy+jack3), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … Hail the iron horse! A Derby horse with double-digit lifetime starts is pretty darn rare, and MY BOY JACK comes in with ten. We’ll say that all of those starts really helped him build up the bottom and seasoning that you need to win going ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May. We’ll note how good that Desormeaux brother combination can be, and we’ll note how his big middle move is more often the winning Derby move than a true late closer coming from the clouds down the lane. And we’ll note that while the pedigree leans turf, turf horses have had plenty of Derby success (ANIMAL KINGDOM comes to mind).
If he loses … We’ll say that his ten starts have pretty well proven out his ceiling, and that he’s yet to run a triple-digit speed figure in any of them. We’ll note that despite fast early paces in *most* of his races, he’s only been able to seal the deal in three starts, and he had absolutely no excuse to not go by NOBLE INDY in the Louisiana Derby. He proved himself a mud monster in the Southwest with an EXXAGERATOR-like move on the rail, but otherwise he only beat a turf field and a lower-level Lexington field (barely holding off lightly-raced TELEKINESIS). We’ll say we should have known he simply had the look of a solid horse that wasn’t going to improve going ten furlongs.
In short … I like this horse well enough, but you’d really have to have faith in the Desormeaux clan to want to bet him. How great is that middle move going to be when he’ll probably have to go eight wide to do it? The only way I could see him winning is if Kent delivers a virtuouso rail trip a la STREET SENSE or MINE THAT BIRD, and even then I’m not sure he can sustain such a bid down the lane as he’s idled so badly late in most of his races.
15) #20 COMBATANT (http://www.pedigreequery.com/combatant7), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say his strong finishing fractions showed that he really gets going late, and that since he’s never faced a truly “fast” pace in his life, all he needed was more speed up front to turn those strong finishes into an electrifying late kick as the other horses slowed down and he just kept going strong. And with NORTHERN DANCER twice on his damside and once on his sire’s side, the quality of the pedigree was finally able to shine for this $320,000 purchase. Finally, we’ll say that Steve Asmussen knows how to bring a horse to the big race, and that his relatively paired last two speed figures of 96-94 gave him the necessary base to move up in the Kentucky Derby.
If he loses … We’ll say that this horse had seven lifetime starts and just one win, and hasn’t made any obvious improvement in any of his past five races (if anything you could argue he regressed, finishing third and fourth in his last two). And that with five races in a row without a break between any, the Derby marks his sixth race in a row -- a lifetime of racing in this day and age.
In short … If you want to throw him into the bottom of your exotics, fine. I’m not saying there’s absolutely no chance for him to win at the longer distance and if things go differently up front, but I just feel like we know what we have here, and he hasn’t shown anything remotely close to what a Derby winner needs.
14) #12 ENTICED (http://www.pedigreequery.com/enticed5), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that he was fouled badly in the Wood, and the fact that he still ran a 99 speed figure and finished second showed plenty of moxie that he would need in the Derby. We’ll note that his 104 speed figure in the Gotham was one of the better from this class, and the fact that he was able to do that at a mile when you could argue this son of MEDAGLIA D’ORO and MINESHAFT will get better going longer. We’ll say he never ran worse than third with Junior Alvarado on his back, and that Kiaran McLaughlin knows how to bring a horse into a big race. And we’ll note how he sat relatively close to the pace in most of his races -- most of which were rather fast-paced -- and still stayed on well. He also won at Churchill in the Jockey Club last Nov. 25, showing that he had at least some affinity for the strip. Finally, we’ll note that whether the Wood was a bounce or he just ran slower due to the foul, he was clearly ready for another move forward in the Derby.
If he loses … We’ll note that his best performance came going a flat mile, and that it was obvious that he was not going to beat VINO ROSSO regardless of the foul. TIZ MISCHIEF, a failed Triple Crown horse, beat him in the Holy Bull and was only a head away in the Jockey Club, and since then -- and really in his whole career -- the best horse he beat was probably FREE DROP BILLY. He’s been bested by VINO ROSSO, AUDIBLE, FREE DROP BILLY (the race before), FIRENZE FIRE and GOOD MAGIC. We’ll say that McLaughlin hasn’t been particularly good on the Triple Crown trail lately, with FROSTED failing to do much to challenge AMERICAN PHAROAH a few years ago and the spectacular burnout of MOHAYMEN.
In short … I do think he should have been made the winner of the Wood, even though I also think he wasn’t going to beat VINO ROSSO regardless. If his Gotham effort had come at a longer distance against better horses, I might be a believer. But ultimately he seems to me to be a good, not great, horse. I can’t really envision a scenario in which he wins the race, because he doesn’t seem to be the “best” horse when it comes to really anything. He’s a middle mover, but he doesn’t have a particularly strong middle move. His only real hope would be that he improves with the extra distance, but his late pace figures don’t indicate that, either.
Bombs Away (Bottom-feeding exotic contenders):
13) #15 INSTILLED REGARD (http://www.pedigreequery.com/instilled+regard), 50/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that he had no chance in the Santa Anita Derby, a paceless race in which he was dead last at the first call, and he actually only lost two lengths the rest of the race -- meaning he finished strongly enough to indicate that had they gone a bit faster up front, he might have been able to close the gap. And we’ll also note that it was his first race off a layoff, so of course we could have expected him to run better in his second race back off the bench. Finally, his speed figure of 102 in the Santa Anita Derby was not half bad, and in fact better than many other contenders. We’ll note that despite being a son of a FORESTRY mare (a noted sprint sire), his dosage was a surprisingly low 1.59 with a CD of .32 -- one of the better marks in the field for running a route. We’ll note that he was the forgotten horse involved in the blanket SOLOMINI/MCKINZIE finish in the Los Al Futurity last December, and he turned in a very professional victory in the Lecomte back in January. Finally, regardless of any pedigree analysis, it’s obvious he was well-regarded as a youngster -- his owners paid $1.05 million for him in March 2017.
If he loses … We’ll question what his excuse was in the Risen Star, when he had two longshot winners in dead aim at the top of the stretch and simply didn’t respond and ended up fourth. And regardless of the excuses at Santa Anita, he lacked enough punch to stay close early in a paceless race, and made zero impression at any point. His Lecomte win was of the garden trip variety over a laughable group of horses, and with just $294,000 in earnings, he’s second-last only to the thrice-raced HOFBURG despite having seven career starts.
In short … When it comes to absurd longshots, I have to admit that I like this one better than most. Now, when I say absurd, I mean I’d have to get more than 50/1 to consider betting him -- highly unlikely in the Derby, of course -- but there are enough reasons to believe he could improve more than most other horses. Whether that’s anywhere near good enough to win this race is the main question, and I readily admit it’s probably not. But I would bet on anything at the right price, so I’m not saying NEVER with this one.
12) #2 FREE DROP BILLY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/free+drop+billy), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that if there was ever a classic pedigree, it’s that of a UNION RAGS - GIANT’S CAUSEWAY dam union. And that his grinding, keep coming style lended itself to the added distance of the Derby very well. And we’ll say that his prep season was ideal for getting ready -- a couple of third-place finishes and a second-place finish off the bench in the Holy Bull. He ran well but never all-out, and it set him up perfectly for moving forward in the Derby from the No. 2 post.
If he loses … We’ll say that pedigree by itself isn’t enough; he never ran well enough to win a race like this, and that wasn’t going to change against 19 other horses. That he had no real excuse in the Gotham, and even though it was at a mile, he was actually losing, not gaining, ground late. And that while his pedigree says he should want to go long, he showed more punch in shorter races.
In short … He just never has run well enough to win this race. The pedigree makes me think he could certainly just keep coming late, but there’s not much else to give me hope here. I’m more interested in him if he comes back for the Belmont, but I could see him limping up for a third- or fourth-place finish late.
Overrated (clap, clap … clap, clap):
11) #9 HOFBURG (http://www.pedigreequery.com/hofburg2), 20/1
If he wins … We’ll note how the normally uber-conservative Bill Mott threw him right into the deep end of the Florida Derby after breaking his maiden in early-March, and how HOFBURG delivered with a big move forward in his three start, going from a 96 speed figure in his maiden breaker to a 104 in running second to AUDIBLE. We’ll say that after progression like that in his first two starts of the year, of course he was going to move up after the layoff. We’ll note that we should have listened to all the wise guys that climbed aboard his bandwagon, and that as a son of TAPIT and a TOUCH GOLD (winner of the 1997 Belmont) dam, he had plenty of classic-winning bonafides in his pedigree.
If he loses … We’ll say that his 104 speed figure was clearly pace-aided, and that while obviously he and AUDIBLE ran away from the rest of the field, the rest of the field wasn’t much to look at it after the early pace cooked so many of them. And while Irad Ortiz is certainly no slouch, he’s the lesser half of the Ortiz brothers, so Jose jumping ship to stick with GOOD MAGIC said at least a little something. We’ll question whether Mott was just asking for too much and starting to feel a little pressure about never having won a Kentucky Derby in the late stages of his career. Finally, we’ll say that he barely held on in his maiden breaking win while drifting late, and that was just two months ago. One pace-aided second-place finish almost by default does not a Derby winner make.
In short … There’s a lot of wise guy buzz on HOFBURG, but the only angle that really speaks to me is the human one, i.e. that Mott wouldn’t be bringing him here if he didn’t think he had a real serious shot here. I just don’t think anything he’s done on the track is that impressive, and that Florida Derby race was just a case where all of the other contenders got absolutely cooked through a :46 1/5 half -- in other words, he finished second basically by default. I’d be happy to be wrong and see Mott get one, but they’re asking a lot from a horse that I don’t think has shown that much. And wise guy horses in the Derby are currently 0 for 1,327.
10) #19 NOBLE INDY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/noble+indy), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll laud his career to date, as he’s never run worse than a 95 speed figure in four lifetime starts, winning three of them. We’ll say that it’s even more impressive because he dealt with some bumping in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, and the fact that he somehow held on to win the Louisiana Derby speaks volumes about his stamina -- he was able to sit just a length off of a pace that was rather blistering -- :46 ⅗ to the half -- and still hold off closers like LONE SAILOR and MY BOY JACK. We’ll say that Florent Geroux was a great pickup for Todd Pletcher after Velazquez got off, and that obviously Todd knows how to win the Derby now. We’ll point out that he beat the well-regarded MISSISSIPPI in his second career start, which was a jump up to an optional claimer in early-January. And we’ll say that having A.P. INDY as his paternal grandfather and STORM CAT as his maternal great-grandfather obviously shined through in his pedigree.
If he loses … We’ll say that the Louisiana Derby was a pretty sad race, and that LONE SAILOR and MY BOY JACK not going by him obviously said more negative things about them than good about NOBLE INDY considering that he came home his final three furlongs in an interminable :38 ⅘. We’ll say that the damside pedigree is incredibly sprint-oriented and that it was absolutely dreaming to think he could get ten furlongs. We’ll note that Johnny V. obviously thought more of VINO ROSSO than NOBLE INDY, and that he didn’t have much of an excuse for not winning the Risen Star. And that while Geroux is no stranger to big races, he was sort of plucked off the scrap heap here by Pletcher after his go-to riders all ended up on his other (better) mounts.
In short … If his Louisiana Derby victory was over horses that I perceived to be of real quality, then I would make him a real contender for the Roses as it sure looked like he was digging in late. It truly is remarkable that he won the Louisiana Derby going nine furlongs as his damside pedigree is so sprint-oriented. And he did it in truly impressive fashion, too, sitting right on a hot pace and then keeping on, while others near the pace wilted. But the reality seems to be that he was just up against some sub-standard horses, and I think at least half of the Kentucky Derby field is better than any horse he’s ever even run against at all. He could be a shooting star that’s ready for even more improvement, but with four straight starts sans a rest, I would be pretty surprised to see him pull this off going ten furlongs.
9) #16 MAGNUM MOON (http://www.pedigreequery.com/magnum+moon), 6/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll ask ourselves how we could ignore an undefeated horse with a beautiful pedigree that was able to win both with and without the lead by at least two lengths, and that was trained by the defending Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher. Not only that, he had been working bullets in his final three workouts.
If he loses … We’ll point out that he never ran faster than a 100 speed figure, and he was the beneficiary of being on/near slow paces in each one of his races. We’ll point out that Saez just doesn’t compare to some of the other riders in this race, and that the best horse he beat prior to the Derby was the talented but as-yet unable to put it all together SOLOMINI.
In short … I just don’t have a lot to say about this horse, I guess. To me, the most impressive race he ran may have been the OC he ran in at Tampa on Feb. 15, and that’s only because he was a few lengths off of a slow early pace … but it was a five-horse field and he was 1/9. What I like the most is his pedigree, but I will even poke a hole in that -- MALIBU MOON doesn’t have quite the classic distance oomph that A.P. INDY did. And, one final hole … he only sold for $380,000. “Only” feels a little funny to say there, but I would expect a horse with his kind of pedigree to go for closer a million if he was perceived as that truly special as a youngster.
Longshot delights
8) #4 FLAMEAWAY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/flameaway), 30/1:
If he wins … We’ll note that he only ran worse than second in six career dirt starts, and that trip was troubled early in his first career start on a fast track. We’ll note his turf prowess -- he won the Kitten’s Joy turf stake at Gulfstream in January -- can be a good thing at Churchill, and in his three main track starts this year, he ran speed figures of 101-97-97 -- which would indicate he not only can run fast enough to be in contention, but that he should be primed for a move forward after back-to-back 97 figs. We’ll note that he beat two quality horses in CATHOLIC BOY and VINO ROSSO in the Sam Davis, then ran second after a tough start in a slow-paced race (Tampa Bay Derby), and then was second again -- and a gritty, never-giving-up second at that -- in the Blue Grass, in which he lost the lead at the top of the stretch but then kept going and didn’t lose any ground throughout the lane. We’ll say we should have known he was very good to stick with GOOD MAGIC like that while visually looking like he was still striding out and wanted more, a notion which would be supported by both his late pace figures and his pedigree -- which is impressive as a son of SCAT DADDY and a FUSAICHI PEGASUS (2000 Derby winner) mare, and that obviously the connections liked what they saw to go to $400,000 for him in August 2016.
If he loses … We’ll note that he hasn’t won a race on a fast dirt track in which he didn’t have the lead at the first and second calls, and that frankly he was fortunate that the races he ran in this year had relatively slow paces -- so of course he SHOULD have stuck around late, and he SHOULD have come home relatively strongly. And we’ll say the fact that he hasn’t been favored in a race since starting his career at Woodbine last May should have told us a little something about his real quality. Finally, after the CLASSIC EMPIRE debacle last year, we’ll say we should have known better than to trust Mark Casse to bring a horse to the Derby in good shape, and that with four starts and no break in 2018, FLAMEAWAY had left his best on the track already.
In short … There’s no doubt that FLAMEAWAY has been relatively lucky in his races this year to get to the lead and have relatively slow paces, and the reality is certainly that he’s just not as fast as some of the other horses here. However, that’s no different from MAGNUM MOON, who will likely go off as the second or third choice. The tough thing for FLAMEAWAY is figuring out how he can win. Is he likely to be on the lead with PROMISES FULFILLED entered? No. Has he run as fast as many of the other ostensible early speed horses? No. That’s not to say he can’t -- but we don’t know if he hasn’t because he can’t or simply because he hasn’t needed to. If he gets to the lead or can sit just off of it (which I do believe is the most likely scenario), I love his potential to pull a SHACKLEFORD (perhaps my favorite horse ever) and just forget that he’s supposed to stop. I’m not sure he’s good enough at the end of the day, but at 30/1 or so? I’ll take my chances.
7) #17 SOLOMINI (http://www.pedigreequery.com/solomini), 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll note that he’s never run worse than third in six career starts and, although he was placed third after being DQ’d, did cross the wire ahead of the well-regarded MCKINZIE and INSTILLED REGARD back in the Los Al Futurity last December. We’ll say that as a son of CURLIN and a STORM CAT dam, he was built for classic success, and that obviously Baffert knows how to bring a horse to the big dance. We’ll say Prat is one of the best young riders in the game and that his adept ability in tightly-packed turf races transferred well to the 20-horse Derby. We’ll note that he had zero chance to catch easy leaders MAGNUM MOON and QUIP in the Arkansas Derby, and was bumped and had to be steadied as the favorite in the Rebel. Finally, while he’s always worked relatively fast, we’ll point to his last two bullet works on April 8 and April 23, as well as the way he finished up a six-furlong work in :12 flat on April 29 as signs of his readiness.
If he loses … We’ll say that we were trying too hard to see something that just wasn’t there -- that speed figures of 95-96 this year were just too far below the top echelon of horses to think he could compete. We’ll say that good horses make their own good luck, and he just wasn’t good enough to do that. We’ll say we were stupid for betting a horse that surely took some money just because of the AMERICAN PHAROAH tie-ins.
In short … To win the Kentucky Derby or any horse race for that matter -- or at least to be worth a bet -- a horse either needs to be what you believe is the best horse, close enough to the best that you believe he can win if things go just the right way, or -- and this is where you make it or lose it as a handicapper -- have the potential to improve enough to win despite showing no such evidence on paper. To me, SOLOMINI is the best example of that kind of horse in the Derby field. Bob Baffert has obviously been frustrated with him -- he described him recently as “trying to ride a bicycle with the brake on,” but he hasn’t been so frustrated that he’s not running him here. Remember: Baffert has the morning line favorite in JUSTIFY. If he thought JUSTIFY was unbeatable, would he bother running SOLOMINI at all? Maybe he would because the owners wanted to, but it’s a legitimate question. He very well may run the race of his life and still not be good enough to win, but we haven’t seen him run well at all this year, and he still made it here, so he could be sitting on a huge effort at a huge price.
Bright Lights
6) #14 MENDELSSOHN (http://www.pedigreequery.com/mendelssohn11), 5/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that his Dubai performance was supernatural and that of course a half brother to BEHOLDER was going to be head and shoulders above a typical three-year-old class. We’ll point out that he sold for an unholy $3 million at the 2016 Keeneland September sale, and of course they didn’t pay all that money for just another horse. We’ll say that Ryan Moore is the best jockey in the world and wasn’t skipping the 2000 Guineas in his homeland for nothing, and that the possibly best trainer in the world, Aiden O’Brien, was overdue to get a Kentucky Derby win. And we’ll note that he’s already shipped to America and won, and he’s already shipped to Dubai and won, so why would one more overseas trip bother him?
If he loses … We’ll say that the track in Dubai was incredibly speed/inside-favoring, and that most races on the card were a merry go-round, with horses not changing positions much all the way around the track, and many winners on the lead drawing off to win with aplomb. And his closest pursuer was a filly. We’ll say that Ryan Moore might be the best jockey in a European grass race, but not against 19 other horses on dirt. We’ll say that despite the $3 million purchase price, his damside pedigree looks iffy at distance, and BEHOLDER always had distance questions at a classic distance. We’ll say that they spent so much on him and sent him to O’Brien because, despite his Dubai win, he is probably best on turf and has a future there as soon as this summer. And we’ll say that horses from Dubai have always struggled with the turnaround time and the ship, and he’s now shipped from Ireland to Dubai to Louisville within a span of two months -- very hard for any horse to handle.
In short … Because I am insane, I woke up at 6:30 on Dubai World Cup day and watched every race that day … after handicapping many of them late the night before. And there is 0 doubt that the track was a conveyor belt -- other than the Sprint (which MIND THAT BISCUITS somehow won wide and off the pace, which remains mind blowing how good he must have been that day), every horse that got to the lead and got to the rail either won or held on for a placing. This was the case the entire meet, and in fact I bet RAYYA (the aforementioned filly) solely because I expected her to get to the rail and the lead. Well, she didn’t, but she did have the rail, and she wound up second. So with the disclaimer that he may very well be the biggest freak of them all (his Thoro Graph number for the race is reportedly far and away the best in the field), I’ll play against that track bias-aided performance and against the tough ship and against Ryan Moore (I will always hate him after his ride on HUNTER’S LIGHT in the 2013 Arlington Million).
5) #5 AUDIBLE (http://www.pedigreequery.com/audible8), 8/1 ML:
If he wins … we’ll say that his late pace figures stood head and shoulders above most of the field, despite very different paces in both of his prep wins at Gulfstream. And we’ll say that they were the obvious indicator that we should have ignored his pedigree and its apparent distance limitations because CALIFORNIA CHROME and AMERICAN PHAROAH had similar pedigree questions, and they were obviously not so hampered by them. We’ll say that Castellano got off of BOLT D’ORO for the chance to ride this one again, and of course that meant more than just loyalty because this is the Kentucky Derby, after all. Finally, we’ll say that his speed figures of 105-107 were close enough to being paired to make him ready for yet another leap forward.
If he loses … we’ll say, yeah, there was no way that horse was EVER getting 10 furlongs! The pedigree is just that sprint-oriented, how could we ever ignore that? We’ll say he got absolutely perfect trips given how the pace of his two preps played out, and that Velazquez sticking with VINO ROSSO over AUDIBLE was an obvious sign of who he thought the better horse was.
In short … Every year lately, it seems, there is a top horse that I really just don't like without a whole lot of reason. And, every year, it seems, that horse ends up winning the Kentucky Derby. This year, AUDIBLE is that horse (you’ve been warned). My thing is this: Beyond just the huge pedigree question, Pletcher was ready to run him in an 80k optional turf claimer when he freaked and won by the race off the turf by nearly 10 lengths with a 94 BRIS figure. Then he made a big middle move into a rapidly slowing pace and held off FREE DROP BILLY for a 105 figure in the Holy Bull, and then dropped far back off a blistering early pace in the Florida Derby before looping the field and winning that race by three lengths, as well. But who has he beaten?! FREE DROP BILLY in his first start off a long layoff is about it! HOFBURG seems plenty promising but had just broken his maiden the race before, and the rest of his competition in the race toasted itself with the early pace. I’ll close my eyes and trust my gut and pass yet again.
The Proven Commodities
4) #18 VINO ROSSO (http://www.pedigreequery.com/vino+rosso5), 12/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say he finally put it together in the Wood (a race in which ENTICED was never going to beat him despite the bumping) after some rather odd efforts at Tampa, and that the way he re-broke late in the Sam F. Davis showed he had some extra gears that showcased real talent. And we’ll say we should have known that with two 100+ speed figures under his belt in the last three starts, a bounce wasn’t likely and he had reason to move forward. We’ll note that John Velazquez got off of AUDIBLE, a horse who had put in some seemingly superior efforts (winning races with better speed figures), to ride this guy, and obviously that meant something. And we’ll laud the pedigree as a son of CURLIN and a STREET CRY mare, a pedigree that obviously jumped off the page as he was a $400,000 purchase at Keeneland in 2016.
If he loses … We’ll say that being nine lengths -- further than he’s ever been off the pace in any prior race -- was the perfect spot to be with a :46 ⅗ first half in the Wood, and that while it may be true that ENTICED very likely wasn’t going to beat him, he clearly impeded him down the stretch and did anything but keep a straight course. We’ll note that his April 20 workout was rather slow for a Pletcher horse, and that he may not have jumped off AUDIBLE for just Pletcher as much as he did it for the vaunted Repole-Pletcher-Velazquez combination that has so much history. And we’ll say that if you ignore the Wood, he was fourth, beaten sixth lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby, and third, beaten more than a length, in the Sam Davis -- his only two stakes tries. We’ll say that the Wood was a fluke and only the perfect setup got him home, and ENTICED is far from the top tier of horses in this race.
In short … There are a lot of positives with this horse if you believe that not just any horse with the setup he had in the Wood could have gotten the job done. My take? I rewatched the race and Johnny really asks him for run from the get-go, and really doesn’t let up on him the whole way around. He idled a bit on the backstretch -- not unlike the Sam Davis -- and you start to think that he’s not going anywhere. But then he creeps up just a bit on the turn and Johnny starts showing him the whip at the midway point, and at that point he starts to actually make a visual move. By the time they hit the top of the stretch, he’s in the lead, at which Johnny V. basically points him at the rail and they herd ENTICED over at least five paths. The good news from all of that is that obviously he doesn’t mind trading paint with other horses, and obviously he has a few gears to go through in the course of a race. I do think he’ll take some money and get bet down a little bit -- so at the end of the day I likely won’t bet him to win -- but I do think he still offers enough value to include in exotics.
3) #6 GOOD MAGIC (http://www.pedigreequery.com/good+magic2), 12/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say Chad Brown is a genius and prepared the champ wonderfully for this race, never having him fully cranked and knowing full well that he had enough of a base with his BC Juvenile win to take things slowly in this calendar year. He was so much the best in the Blue Grass that he ran 8-10 lengths further than his closest pursuers, and we should have known he’d only get better going ten furlongs as a son of CURLIN and a HARD SPUN dam. And the combination of Jose Ortiz and Chad Brown is as good as it gets in the game right now. We’ll say we knew he’s not a bounce candidate as he paired 98 speed figures in his last two, and he should enjoy some extra pace to run at.
If he loses … We’ll say it was obvious that he didn’t improve at age 3, running only a pair of 98 speed figures, and we would have liked to see at least a little improvement. He looked very one-paced in both of his races in 2018, and we were at least a little worried about his feet posing problems. We’ll say the fact that he was only able to beat FLAMEAWAY by 1.5 lengths rather than drawing off in the lane of the Blue Grass spoke volumes about his lack of brilliance.
In short … There’s actually not a whole lot to not like about GOOD MAGIC, other than the fact that he hasn’t run as fast as many of the other horses have this year. On the other hand, there’s not a lot he’s done this year to get excited about -- sure, he won the Blue Grass, but visually it didn’t look great and numbers-wise it didn’t look great. But he has run fast enough in the past (JUSTIFY and BOLT D’ORO notwithstanding), and the fact that he hasn’t had to shoot his big gun yet this year is just as promising as having actually done it. He is Chekhov’s Gun personified (horse-ified?).
The Two to Beat
2) #11 BOLT D'ORO (http://www.pedigreequery.com/bolt+doro), 8/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll note how rare such a great distance pedigree is these days (MEDAGLIA D’ORO by an A.P. INDY dam) and that we should have known he would only improve going longer. We’ll say of course he lost to JUSTIFY in his prep -- he didn’t NEED to win that race, so why would he have been fully cranked? The fact that he still ran second by just three lengths while chasing a loose leader on a slow pace showed just he good he is. And how could we ignore Victor Espinoza, rider of the only Triple Crown winner in my lifetime, as well as Derby winner CALIFORNIA CHROME, getting aboard the most impressive two-year-old of last year (sorry, GOOD MAGIC).
If he loses … We’ll say that Castellano getting off to ride AUDIBLE spoke volumes. We’ll say that he hadn’t crossed the line first in either of his races this year (and not at all since Sept. 30, 2017), and that he had dead aim on JUSTIFY but couldn’t even touch a horse that had only two prior lifetime starts. We’ll say that trainer Mick Ruis has no idea what he’s doing compared to the Pletchers and Bafferts of the world, and that despite his Triple Crown success, Espinoza can’t hold a candle to guys like Castellano and Smith. And we’ll say his April 22 work where he went fast early and slow late was a harbinger of problems.
In short … If Castellano was still aboard, I would be as close to all-in on this horse as I can get. He’s got the baseline of two-year-old success and his three-year-old races have set him up to get back there or beyond. He lost the BC Juvenile after a rough start and wide trip, so it’s not as if he can’t possibly lose -- but if he gets a fair pace and a fair trip, I don’t think you can say with any confidence that he’s not just as good as JUSTIFY. He’s a bet.
1) #7 JUSTIFY (http://www.pedigreequery.com/justify10), 3/1 ML:
If he wins ... We’ll ask ourselves how we could ignore the horse with the highest last-out speed figure … a horse that had never won a race by less than three lengths. A horse that was trained by the only trainer to win a Triple Crown in the past 40 years … a guy who has won four Kentucky Derbies. Not only that, this horse was ridden by the best “big money” rider in the game, Mike Smith. And this horse’s pedigree (SCAT DADDY and a GHOSTZAPPER mare) makes extra distance seem like no problem at all. His worst speed figure of his career came in his first start, and even that was 100. His past two figures were 114 and 104, with the 104 coming in his second start in the mud, and the 114 being a victory over BOLT D’ORO. He put up triple-digit pace figures at every call, with each one faster than the last: 100-105-117, coming home his final three furlongs in 37 seconds flat. That is scary good, and the way he turned away the experienced BOLT D’ORO was impressive.
If he loses … We’ll ask ourselves how we could bet against the curse of Apollo, particularly when his first start didn’t come until Feb. 18! How could we bet on a horse with only one stakes race in his life ... in which he beat a grand total of six other horses. He beat a grand total of 14 horses in his first three races, and we expected him to beat 19 others in the Kentucky Derby?! We should have known that virtually any front running horse in the field that got away with splits of :47 4/5 and 1:12 3/5 all by themselves would have drawn off to win the Santa Anita Derby with ease. Finally, we’ll ask how we could have bet a horse that reminded us so much of BODEMEISTER -- the front-running Baffert freak from 2012 that laid down fractions of :22.32, :45.39, 1:09.8 and 1:35.19 in that Derby and barely got run down by I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. We’ll say that he’s squeezed three races into the last 2.5 months already, and the prospect of a bounce was also in play.
In short … He’s head and shoulders above the rest of the field in terms of what he’s done so far. He’s not a need the lead type, and he’s in a nice post where even if he does have a really bad start (which he’s not at all known for), he should be able to recover and still work out a reasonable trip. I’m not tremendously worried about the curse of Apollo in general, but I am a little bit worried that his last race was his “big shot” and that he’ll regress a bit in the Derby -- he *needed* to win or at least place second in the Santa Anita Derby to make it to Churchill at all, so unless he’s an enormous, enormous freak (which he may well be), he was likely at least a little bit closer to 100% than BOLT D’ORO. And despite the lofty full-race triple-digit BRIS pace figures, I do think that the lone lead he had made things pretty darn easy for him. At the same time … he straight up put BOLT D’ORO away in the stretch; it’s not like he just barely held on. I’m as close to betting a Derby favorite as I’ve ever been. And yet …
My Wagers
It should be pretty obvious that I have at least some interest in six horses in the race, probably in this order (in terms of value): BOLT D’ORO, SOLOMINI, GOOD MAGIC, FLAMEAWAY, JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO
The goal here is to profit, of course, and ultimately while I’ll include VINO ROSSO in exotics, I don’t think he’s worthy of a win bet. As for JUSTIFY, I don’t know if he’s necessarily value, but I also think he's a plenty likely winner and don’t want to lose money if he wins.
So, at morning line odds, my wagers might look something like this.
$60 on BOLT D’ORO at 8/1 (profit $480 if he wins)
$16 on SOLOMINI at 30/1 (profit $480 if he wins)
$32 on GOOD MAGIC at 12/1 (profit $384 if he wins)
$12 on FLAMEAWAY at 30/1 (profit $360 if he wins)
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$120 risked on those four
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$40 on JUSTIFY at 3/1 (profit $120 if he wins)
Finally, it's the Derby, so you have to throw in a little bit of exotics action. I'll key both BOLT D'ORO and SOLOMINI in all spots of the trifecta along with the four mentioned above: GOOD MAGIC, FLAMEAWAY, JUSTIFY, VINO ROSSO.
Good luck everyone!