THE 2018 belmont STAKES
(If you prefer to consume your race previews with your ears, click here for my Belmont podcast with Zach Trexler)
Here we are again.
For the 15th time in the past 40 years, there's a Triple Crown on the line at Belmont Park.
Of course, only once did a horse actually seal the deal -- that was, of course, just three years ago, when AMERICAN PHAROAH sealed the deal (with yours truly in attendance).
One thing is pretty consistent: When a Triple Crown is on the line, the public invariably gives a lot of support to the horse going for it -- and with good reason, because that horse has just won the two biggest races for 3-year-old in the year to date.
But there's also the fact that people like to buy $2 win tickets as souvenirs with no intention to ever cash them, so the reality is that the win pool at the Belmont Stakes is full of money on the favorite that isn't necessarily ... wait for it ... justified.
In short, it's difficult to recommend a win bet on a Triple Crown-eligible favorite in virtually any circumstance here. And, in theory, this means that the other horses in the field might actually offer generous enough odds to warrant trying to beat the favorite.
In theory, anyway.
Not ... gonna ... do it
10) #6 GRONKOWSKI, 12/1
If he wins ... We'll point to the fact that he earned a 121 class rating in his last start going a mile over the artificial track at Newcastle, and that he earned a 118 in his three prior starts -- also all wins -- as well. We'll note how being transferred to Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz surely helped him improve somewhat from that, and that obviously them running him here meant they didn't have concerns with his distance pedigree
If he loses ... We'll point to the pedigree looking somewhat short as a son of LONHRO, and that even if you discounted that, this was a turfy pedigree and a big ask off of a 2+ month layoff.
In short ... He can beat me at whatever odds he's at, particularly 12/1 -- I wouldn't bet him even at 30/1. I don't see any reason to bet him here.
9) #3 BRAVAZO, 8/1
If he wins ... We'll note how impressive his late kick in the Preakness was, as he fell back to fifth after tracking the quick early pace in third, but then re-rallied late to fall just a half-length short of JUSTIFY. And we'll go back to what we said heading into the Preakness: while he was soundly beaten in the Derby, he greatly outran his odds and even ran 44 feet further than JUSTIFY -- which in theory comes out to about 5.5 lengths, and he was only beaten by 8 lengths! Drawing a line through his Louisiana Derby no-show put him on par with some of the other horses contesting this race, and whatever the case was in the Derby, he seemed to live up to his pedigree and enjoy the off track (CEE'S TIZZY has an amazing 20% strike rate with mud runners) in the first two Triple Crown races.
If he loses ... The pedigree wasn't good enough -- his best wasn't good enough -- he's had a pattern of two good races with speed figs in the high 80s or 90s and then a clunker in the 70s, and by that math, he's due for the clunker.
In short ... I gave him 0 chance coming into the Derby for a reason, and I didn't play him in the Preakness for the same reason. Even though his late move in the Preakness seemed impressive coming out of the fog, he still couldn't seal the deal, and sitting third behind two dueling leaders would be the absolutely prime position to pull an upset. I still don't think he has the right kind of pedigree for this race despite the way it looked like he would have won the Preakness with more racetrack, and the pedigree never seemed right for the distance, and although he did finish sixth in the Derby, he actually lost two positions in the stretch. I know it seems a little bit absurd having him this low, but I just don't see how he can improve going longer on a fast track, and he already wasn't good enough.
Why Are They Here?
8) #9 NOBLE INDY, 30/1
If he wins … We’ll draw a line through the Derby, say he just hated the mud, and then laud his career to date, as he’s never run worse than a 95 speed figure in four lifetime starts prior, winning three of them. We’ll say that it’s even more impressive because he dealt with some bumping in both the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby, and the fact that he somehow held on to win the Louisiana Derby speaks volumes about his stamina -- he was able to sit just a length off of a pace that was rather blistering -- :46 3/5 to the half -- and still hold off closers like LONE SAILOR and MY BOY JACK. We’ll say that getting Javier Castellano aboard obviously was a big plus, and that Pletcher in the Belmont is always formidable. And we’ll say that having A.P. INDY as his paternal grandfather and STORM CAT as his maternal great-grandfather obviously shined through in his pedigree.
If he loses … We’ll say that the Louisiana Derby was a pretty sad race, and that LONE SAILOR and MY BOY JACK not going by him obviously said more negative things about them than good about NOBLE INDY considering that he came home his final three furlongs in an interminable :38 3/5. We’ll say that the damside pedigree is incredibly sprint-oriented and that it was absolutely dreaming to think he could get ten furlongs in the Derby -- which he didn't -- and definitely not 12 in the Belmont Stakes.
In short … It truly is remarkable that he won the Louisiana Derby going nine furlongs as his damside pedigree is so sprint-oriented. He did straight up get tired in the Derby, too, and it's just really tough to see how he can get 12 furlongs at the end of the day. The Pletcher angle is one thing I do like, and the other is that he could get brave on the lead and may well be the "target" for JUSTIFY to sit off of. But really the only reason I would maybe play him is the "why is he here?" angle. Does Pletcher know something that isn't apparent? To be clear, I'm not betting him, but it's interesting!
7) #5 RESTORING HOPE, 30/1
If he wins ... We'll curse Bob Baffert for hexing himself with the "other Baffert" angle, which indicates to always play the longer Baffert shot in races where he has more than one entry. And we'll say that if you draw a line through the Pat Day Mile, his Wood was plenty competitive sitting third off some fast fractions, and that his maiden breaker prior to that was a nice performance, as well. But, most of all, we'll say that pedigree with GIANT'S CAUSEWAY on top and a TAPIT dam on the bottom should have been too good to ignore, particularly with three bullet works since the Pat Day Mile.
If he loses ... He was only 1-for-5 lifetime coming into this race, and none of his speed figures entered the echelon that it would take to win this race.
In short ... The pedigree is the only reason that I could see this one winning ... well that and the other Baffert angle. Why is he running this horse?! It would seem that he's likely to act as a target for JUSTIFY or at least a horse to keep other possible pace types occupied, but it's not like JUSTIFY needs a rabbit; in fact, breaking from the No. 1 post, that's the opposite of what he needs. So maybe he will move way up going 12 furlongs? I still have to pass, but it's sort of intriguing.
Mixed Signals
6) #10 BLENDED CITIZEN, 15/1
If he wins ... We'll note that the Peter Pan has been a pretty good prep for the Belmont, and he's the only horse to have even run at this track previously. And his 98 speed figure in that race equaled JUSTIFY for the best last-out figure. And that although he was fifth early, he was within 2 lengths of a brisk pace that went three quarters in 1:11 2/5, and he still went by CORE BELIEFS with relative ease late. His pedigree was good enough and his conditioning was clearly not going to be an issue with four consecutive 9 furlong races under his belt since February, and Doug O'Neill was due to make some noise in a classic race again, and that his bullet work on May 26 was a sign of continuing good form.
If he loses ... We'll note that his pedigree is awfully turfy, and that while he did win the Belmont, that was on a track labeled "good" and in fact he is 0-for-4 lifetime on fast tracks with a best career speed figure of 93 and a best finish of fifth. And obviously we'll say he hasn't faced horses anywhere close to the type he'll see in the Belmont Stakes in his prior 10 career starts.
In short ... I just don't think he's really a dirt horse and he's in much deeper water here than he's ever been before. Particularly at a short-ish price (14/1 offshore), that's an easy pass for me, but obviously he could run back to the Peter Pan and be a major player.
Bombs Away Billy
5) #2 FREE DROP BILLY, 30/1 ML:
If he wins … We’ll say that if there was ever a classic pedigree, it’s that of a UNION RAGS - GIANT’S CAUSEWAY dam union. And that his grinding, keep coming style lended itself to the 12 furlong Belmont very well. And that the best pattern for Belmont winners lately has been a Derby run -- which in his case must have been a throwout since he just must not like the sloppy stuff -- and then five weeks off. Finally, his bullet work on May 21 and near-bullet on May 28 showed just how ready he was.
If he loses … We’ll say that pedigree by itself isn’t enough; he never ran well enough to win a race like this, and that wasn’t going to change off of an absolute clunker in the Kentucky Derby. And that while his pedigree says he should want to go long, he showed more punch in shorter races, and the (lack of) Derby effort was particularly glaring.
In short … I'm not totally sure on this one. Dale Romans delivered a nice horse for me in the Belmont in 2014 with MEDAL COUNT, but I was disappointed by BRODY'S CAUSE, a horse that reminded me a lot of FREE DROP BILLY a few years ago. But not being totally sure on a horse at 30/1 warrants a play of some sort. I think he'll keep coming and could spice things up in a very nice way.
Inseparable Underlays
4) #4 HOFBURG, 9/2
If he wins … We’ll note how the normally uber-conservative Bill Mott threw him right into the deep end of the Florida Derby after breaking his maiden in early-March, and how HOFBURG delivered with a big move forward in his three starts, going from a 96 speed figure in his maiden breaker to a 104 in running second to AUDIBLE. And that his Derby run was full of trouble, being steadied twice and shuffled back to 16th at the start, yet he still made up nearly nine lengths on JUSTIFY in the stretch and now came to this race a fresh horse with five weeks of rest. And we’ll note that we should have listened to all the wise guys that climbed aboard his bandwagon, and that as a son of TAPIT and a TOUCH GOLD (winner of the 1997 Belmont) dam, he had plenty of classic-winning bonafides in his pedigree.
If he loses … We’ll say that his 104 speed figure in the Florida Derby was clearly pace-aided, and that all he did late in the Kentucky Derby was pass tired horses. And even though TOUCH GOLD did win the Belmont, his offspring haven't been quite the distance progeny we woudl have guessed.
In short … As in the Derby, there’s a lot of wise guy buzz on HOFBURG, but also as in the Derby, the main angle that really speaks to me is the human one, i.e. that Mott wouldn’t be bringing him here if he didn’t think he had a real serious shot here. And I have to say, the normally reserved Mott is almost coming across as ... cocky! ... in some of his interviews. He seems very confident if nothing else and he gives every impression of a horse that will appreciate extra distance and the extra seasoning from the Derby surely helped him. But ... 9/2? For a horse that's still eligible for an N2L? He could win, but he's no more likely than TENFOLD or VINO ROSSO, at a fraction of the price.
3) #7 Tenfold, 12/1
If he wins ... We'll note his move on the turn and into the stretch of the Preakness was a thing of beauty and looked like a winning one until late, and perhaps he just got tired after more than a month off. His sire being the narrow loser to RAGS TO RICHES in the 2007 Belmont clearly showed through here, and TAPIT has sired a few Belmont winners in the past couple of years (CREATOR, TAPWRIT). And he did move forward speed figure-wise in the Preakness, continuing a string of 92-93-94-97, quite opposite of JUSTIFY who keeps dropping in figures.
If he loses ... The narrative is really that he just wasn't good enough to begin with, and that the Arkansas Derby was a bad race, and the Preakness set up perfectly for him and he still couldn't close the deal. Additionally, he was 26/1 in the Preakness, so we should have known being less than half of that was a sucker bet.
In short ... As the two loyal readers of this preview know, I was all-in on the TENFOLD bandwagon heading into the Preakness, and he got an ideal setup, and when he moved up on the turn and started closing that gap on JUSTIFY, I started losing my mind ... and then he not only couldn't quite get there, he got caught for the exacta by BRAVAZO. I'm torn here; I don't think we'll get the same value, and his workout on June 2 was *very* aggressive -- I'm surprised that he hasn't ended up on the lead in many of his races, and frankly I think he may in the Belmont itself if he's anything like he was on Saturday. It certainly wouldn't shock me if he won, but I don't see enough value.
2) #18 VINO ROSSO, 8/1 ML
If he wins … We'll note that he had a brutally wide Derby trip in which he ran 43 feet further than JUSTIFY (roughly five lengths), so his ninth-place finish easily could have been top-five with a better trip. And his pedigree has always been a thing of beauty, so Belmont's distance was well within his scope. And that his past four races had a pattern of 100-91-102-91 in terms of speed figures, and so he was clearly due for a return to the triple digits, particularly with the Pletcher Derby-Belmont angle in play. And despite the Derby and the Wood, previously he was never more than a couple lengths off the pace, and we should have expected a return to that form so that his grinding style could have a bigger payoff in the late stages.
If he loses … We'll say we took a price that was too short on a horse that has really only won when things set up perfectly for him or against much worse competition. If you ignore the Wood, he was fourth, beaten sixth lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby, and third, beaten more than a length, in the Sam Davis -- his only two stakes tries. We’ll say that the Wood was a fluke and only the perfect setup got him home, and ENTICED is far from the top tier of horses in this race.
In short … There are a lot of positives with this horse. He should be, in my estimation, the second or third choice here, and obviously he doesn’t mind trading paint with other horses, and obviously he has a few gears to go through in the course of a race. I do think he’ll take some money and get bet down a little bit -- so at the end of the day I likely won’t bet him to win -- but I do think he still offers enough value to include in exotics.
1) #1 Justify, 4/5
If he wins ... We'll drop to our knees and thank the skies for another Triple Crown winner. We'll point out that the fact he could go toe to toe with GOOD MAGIC in the Preakness through a relatively torrid early pace, put the 2-year-old champ away, and then still hold off the late runners was otherworldly. And we'll note in particular how that long stride of his fit the Belmont strip perfectly, and that since this race can be kind to speed, we should have expected him to go to the lead, get into a smooth rhythm, and draw off to enormous pleasure.
If he loses ... Apollo caught up to him. He was tired with so many races in a short period. His Derby win was slow and showed regression from his previous speed figures, and his Preakness win was slower, and he was clearly running out of gas. He bucked his rider last Saturday, he clearly wasn't a happy horse! The 1 hole was a nightmare post for him with some horses entered who were going to show more pace than they ever have.
In short ... He's the best horse in the race, and the only question is how much the best, and how much will he get bet? Based on any sensible form of handicapping, I think he deserves to be 2/5 or 3/5 -- the 4/5 morning line would be an overlay, and I'm hopeful that the perceived weaknesses out there give me a price worth betting.
THE PLAYS
In a year where I've really more or less nailed the Derby and the Preakness, I have to admit that I am having a somewhat hard time with this race.
I don't have much problem tossing some: BRAVAZO, BLENDED CITIZEN, GRONKOWSKI, NOBLE INDY, RESTORING HOPE.
Which leaves the other half of the field: JUSTIFY, HOFBURG, VINO ROSSO, TENFOLD, FREE DROP BILLY.
Knowing that JUSTIFY is unlikely to be worth a play in the win column, I'll keep an eye on his place pool in particular -- largely due to GOOD MAGIC running out of the money in the Preakness, he paid as much to place as he did to win, and that could very well happen again.
Beyond that, the only other horse I really am genuinely interested in at least a small play on across the board WPS is FREE DROP BILLY -- I think he's an overlay. I like TENFOLD and VINO ROSSO somewhat, but it's really hard to say exactly where they should be, and in both cases, 10/1 or so seems "about right."
All of that said, I think the money in this race is in the vertical exotics. Since I feel comfortable leaving half the field out, why not start with a five-horse super box of JUSTIFY-HOFBURG-VINO ROSSO-TENFOLD-FREE DROP BILLY? It's chalky, but leaving out BRAVAZO and BLENDED CITIZEN is at least somewhat bold, and obviously if FREE DROP BILLY shows up anywhere in the frame, that could pay reasonably well.
Finally, even though I obviously feel like HOFBURG could win, 9/2 in particular is a big underlay, and so for exactas and trifectas, I would actually go ahead and leave him out entirely -- tri boxing up JUSTIFY-FREE DROP BILLY-TENFOLD-VINO ROSSO and using the same combinations in the exacta are the way to go.
Good luck!
BONUS: MET MILE PREVIEW!
What makes Belmont Stakes Day so special isn't only the fact that it's the third jewel of the Triple Crown -- it's the absolutely stupendous card they put together for it every year. Frankly, it gives Derby Day and Breeders' Cup Saturday a run for their money as the absolute best racing card of the year (Travers Day also gets an honorable mention, and obviously Royal Ascot Tuesday for international players).
That said, I got a request to preview the Met Mile this year, so I'll give you some relatively quick hitting thoughts:
- This strikes me as one of the weaker Met Miles we've seen in some time. That's not to say that these horses aren't any good -- they're all very nice horses, no doubt -- but the "classiest" horses are sprinters stretching out that might not get a mile, and then we have some horses that couldn't hack it at longer distances against top-class competition ... in short, we don't appear to have any horses like HONOR CODE or FROSTED or SHACKLEFORD in this field.
- With that said, my initial thought on the race is that we might be able to identify seeming longshots that have just about the same chance to win as the favorites.
- The morning line favorite, MIND YOUR BISCUITS, ran an absolutely huge race against the track bias in Dubai, but a mile is not his best distance -- he was competitive in the Cigar Mile last year and I wouldn't leave him out of exotics, but I would actually be a little bit surprised if he won. At 5/2, that's a horse you pass on every time.
- I liked BOLT D'ORO in the Kentucky Derby, but the way he's been pointed for numerous different races since then and now is just showing up here at 4/1 rubs me all kinds of wrong. I'm also not sure what his gameplan would be in this race, as I don't think there's much doubt that he'll be slower than many of these, so he'll be further back in the pack than he ever has been in a successful run.
- ONE LINER has never run out of the money in six starts and manged to run second in the Pimlico Special despite that distance being much further than what I would guess his best distance is. It's his third off the layoff for Pletcher and Irad Ortiz hops aboard, so I'd leave him off your tickets at your own risk.
- The horses I like the most are the two outside horses -- BEE JERSEY and AWESOME SLEW. BEE JERSEY has won three straight at the flat mile distance, and he is blazingly fast -- he ran splits of :22 3/5, :45 2/5 and 1:10 3/5 before coming home in 1:35 4/5 in his OC win at Keeneland two back, and he topped his actual speed figure in that race last-out while beating Grade 1 winner GIRVIN. It also would appear he was a tactical advantage on the field as there's not a whole lot of other speed, and he's faster than anyone who might show it, anyway. AWESOME SLEW was third in the BC Dirt Mile last fall and won the Ack Ack prior to that, closing from off the pace into relatively slow fractions. I don't like him as much as BEE JERSEY, but he's not a bad book end if they go quicker than expected early.
- I haven't mentioned the other horses in this field mostly because they just really haven't accomplished anything other than when things set up perfectly for them. If a horse like MCCRAKEN or GOOD SAMARITAN get a cracking pace to run into, sure they can run right past in the stretch ... but based on past performances, that's the only way I see them getting there.
- So those are the plays: BEE JERSEY-AWESOME SLEW-ONE LINER. Do with them what you will!