the 2017 belmont stakes
I don't always peg the Preakness winner, but please allow me to point out that I did this year.
CLOUD COMPUTING probably wasn't the best horse in that race (that was likely CLASSIC EMPIRE in my estimation), but he got the perfect setup and perfect ride from Javier Castellano, and he was surely cranked to the gills by Chad Brown, who was targeting that race above all others.
Of course, I didn't bet enough (I never do when I have a winner). So I'm back here trying to call the Belmont for the second year in a row, although I will admit that CREATOR wasn't truly my top pick last year -- I had money on him and profited on the race, so I won't apologize for patting myself on the back some more here (although now my arm hurts).
With that said, it's time to look at this year's race. Without the Derby or Preakness winner in the race, the 2017 Belmont Stakes certainly lacks some of the interest we've been blessed with the past five years -- we have to go back to 2012 when I'LL HAVE ANOTHER scratched out of the race the morning before to find a year where neither the Derby or Preakness winner ran. Prior to that, it was 2010 (SUPER SAVER and LOOKIN AT LUCKY) and 2006 (BARBARO (RIP) and BERNARDINI).
I wrote up a fairly long-winded breakdown of why I wanted to play against CLASSIC EMPIRE earlier in the week, but of course with his injury, that's all irrelevant.
The two most logical candidates to win are horses that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness -- they got the 10 furlongs into their lungs, then took a break and are showing back up here. IRISH WAR CRY and TAPWRIT figure to be the second and third choices, respectively, and both had excuses in the Derby depending on how charitable you want to be. IRISH WAR CRY was wide the whole way on a track that I think was definitely favoring inside paths, and despite his terrible early trip, TAPWRIT appeared to benefit from diving inside late as he looked to find another gear once he got down there to follow ALWAYS DREAMING and LOOKIN AT LEE home on the rail.
TAPWRIT was my play in the Derby and I would make that bet over and over again; with a better trip I feel pretty strongly he would have at least turned in a top-three finish. Additionally, playing the Wothe Derby pick in the Belmont has been a winning play in two of the last four years (PALACE MALICE and CREATOR). His pedigree doesn't scream 12 furlongs, however, and there's no doubt he's gaining attention as the "wise guy" horse due to the quality of his Derby run -- which is frustrating given that I had him in the Derby and won nothing, and now I can't get a good price on him because he ran well. He's listed at 5/1 right now and I think that's just a little too low for me.
I still can't really make heads or tails of IRISH WAR CRY's Derby run -- as mentioned previously here, it seemed like he was loaded for bear and might draw off to win by multiple lengths ... and then he just stopped. At least publicly, they've never said he bled or flipped a palate or anything, so it's hard for me to reconcile betting him without an actual excuse other than being wide most of the race. I would probably need 8/1 on him to make a bet, and I think that's pretty much impossible. What I do like about him in Belmont is that he figures to be fairly forwardly placed, and it doesn't look like there's much other speed here, so I would expect a good trip for this one.
The horse I liked the most at the morning line odds was actually J BOYS ECHO. Out of MINESHAFT and a MENIFEE mare, he should really enjoy the extra stretch out, and if he gets away cleanly (which he hasn't done in his past two races now), he's not truly a *deep* closer, so he shouldn't leave himself with too much left to do late. He's probably only the fifth or sixth most likely winner, but at 16/1, there's at least a modicum of value there. Look at him in comparison with a very similar horse, LOOKIN AT LEE -- LEE is 5/1, and I certainly can't say with any even minor sense of conviction that either horse is better than the other. If you still need me to tell you which horse to bet, we've got some problems here, OK? However, he's now only 10/1, so I'm not quite as sure.
J BOYS ECHO won the Gotham *dominantly*, and although that was certainly basically the perfect setup and CLOUD COMPUTING was making just his second career start, he ran by him like he was standing still. And if you forgive the past two starts for trip troubles and trust in Dale Romans and Robby Albarado coming back off of his broken leg, 16/1 starts looking very good on the second-most expensive horse in the field ($485,000 vs. TAPWRIT's $1.2 million).
TWISTED TOM does figure to really enjoy the extra ground with THUNDER GULCH and GIANT'S CAUSEWAY as his grandpa's, and by now you should realize that Chad Brown knows where to run his horses. His Tesio win was pretty impressive given the fast early pace and the fact that he was pressing it in the slop, and he's now won three straight. He'll have to move forward, of course, but he's got every opportunity to and is intriguing if he drifts up from his current 16/1 offshore odds. Except he's now 7/1, which is just silly.
GORMLEY is a little interesting if only because of how the Belmont typically plays out to the advantage of a pace presser, and his pedigree suggests he'll see out 12 furlongs plenty well.
Finally, PATCH has been outworked by TAPWRIT in the mornings and was disappointing without much excuse in the Derby, yet Pletcher is running him back here in his fifth lifetime start. He obviously thinks very highly of him and, to be fair, he was basically bred to win this race out of two Belmont winning sires, UNION RAGS and A.P. INDY. He was wildly overbet in the Derby (and got the biggest cheer of any horse pre-race at Caesars Palace sportsbook), but if that doesn't happen here, he could be worth a shot.
SENIOR INVESTMENT was closing nicely enough in the Preakness and with A.P. INDY two sires back and out of a DEPUTY COMMANDER dam, he should enjoy the stretch out. But he is one of those that is devoid of early speed and they almost never come from the clouds to win the Belmont, and he was 31/1 in the Preakness for a reason. Amazingly enough he is 8/1 offshore right now; I wouldn't even bet 20/1. MULTIPLIER is very much the same -- they'll both be well back early, and maybe they'll plod on to run third or fourth, but I don't see either of these seriously impacting the race.
MEANTIME is a son of perhaps my favorite-ever horse, SHACKLEFORD, but the Shack was always fairly suspect beyond nine furlongs (even a mile, to be honest) and only won the Preakness due to his enormous heart. He doesn't necessarily get a huge dose of distance from his damside, either, so the pedigree looks pretty poor for 12 furlongs. That said, he stayed on quite well (like his sire would have) in the Peter Pan to finish second after setting a pretty swift pace in the slop and ran a big speed figure there, and there's the possibility that they let him go as the lone speed. Ultimately though, SHACKELFORD spit the bit in the stretch of the 2011 Belmont, and even if MEANTIME gets away with that lead, I don't think he'll see it all the way through.
In short:
Given how the odds are shaping up in this race, I don't have anything resembling a strong opinion.
J BOYS ECHO, TAPWRIT, PATCH and GORMLEY are the four that interest me most -- in that order. I would kick myself if any of these won without my support, so I'll likely spread to all of them a little bit and tee up exotics using them along with IRISH WAR CRY.
CLOUD COMPUTING probably wasn't the best horse in that race (that was likely CLASSIC EMPIRE in my estimation), but he got the perfect setup and perfect ride from Javier Castellano, and he was surely cranked to the gills by Chad Brown, who was targeting that race above all others.
Of course, I didn't bet enough (I never do when I have a winner). So I'm back here trying to call the Belmont for the second year in a row, although I will admit that CREATOR wasn't truly my top pick last year -- I had money on him and profited on the race, so I won't apologize for patting myself on the back some more here (although now my arm hurts).
With that said, it's time to look at this year's race. Without the Derby or Preakness winner in the race, the 2017 Belmont Stakes certainly lacks some of the interest we've been blessed with the past five years -- we have to go back to 2012 when I'LL HAVE ANOTHER scratched out of the race the morning before to find a year where neither the Derby or Preakness winner ran. Prior to that, it was 2010 (SUPER SAVER and LOOKIN AT LUCKY) and 2006 (BARBARO (RIP) and BERNARDINI).
I wrote up a fairly long-winded breakdown of why I wanted to play against CLASSIC EMPIRE earlier in the week, but of course with his injury, that's all irrelevant.
The two most logical candidates to win are horses that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness -- they got the 10 furlongs into their lungs, then took a break and are showing back up here. IRISH WAR CRY and TAPWRIT figure to be the second and third choices, respectively, and both had excuses in the Derby depending on how charitable you want to be. IRISH WAR CRY was wide the whole way on a track that I think was definitely favoring inside paths, and despite his terrible early trip, TAPWRIT appeared to benefit from diving inside late as he looked to find another gear once he got down there to follow ALWAYS DREAMING and LOOKIN AT LEE home on the rail.
TAPWRIT was my play in the Derby and I would make that bet over and over again; with a better trip I feel pretty strongly he would have at least turned in a top-three finish. Additionally, playing the Wothe Derby pick in the Belmont has been a winning play in two of the last four years (PALACE MALICE and CREATOR). His pedigree doesn't scream 12 furlongs, however, and there's no doubt he's gaining attention as the "wise guy" horse due to the quality of his Derby run -- which is frustrating given that I had him in the Derby and won nothing, and now I can't get a good price on him because he ran well. He's listed at 5/1 right now and I think that's just a little too low for me.
I still can't really make heads or tails of IRISH WAR CRY's Derby run -- as mentioned previously here, it seemed like he was loaded for bear and might draw off to win by multiple lengths ... and then he just stopped. At least publicly, they've never said he bled or flipped a palate or anything, so it's hard for me to reconcile betting him without an actual excuse other than being wide most of the race. I would probably need 8/1 on him to make a bet, and I think that's pretty much impossible. What I do like about him in Belmont is that he figures to be fairly forwardly placed, and it doesn't look like there's much other speed here, so I would expect a good trip for this one.
The horse I liked the most at the morning line odds was actually J BOYS ECHO. Out of MINESHAFT and a MENIFEE mare, he should really enjoy the extra stretch out, and if he gets away cleanly (which he hasn't done in his past two races now), he's not truly a *deep* closer, so he shouldn't leave himself with too much left to do late. He's probably only the fifth or sixth most likely winner, but at 16/1, there's at least a modicum of value there. Look at him in comparison with a very similar horse, LOOKIN AT LEE -- LEE is 5/1, and I certainly can't say with any even minor sense of conviction that either horse is better than the other. If you still need me to tell you which horse to bet, we've got some problems here, OK? However, he's now only 10/1, so I'm not quite as sure.
J BOYS ECHO won the Gotham *dominantly*, and although that was certainly basically the perfect setup and CLOUD COMPUTING was making just his second career start, he ran by him like he was standing still. And if you forgive the past two starts for trip troubles and trust in Dale Romans and Robby Albarado coming back off of his broken leg, 16/1 starts looking very good on the second-most expensive horse in the field ($485,000 vs. TAPWRIT's $1.2 million).
TWISTED TOM does figure to really enjoy the extra ground with THUNDER GULCH and GIANT'S CAUSEWAY as his grandpa's, and by now you should realize that Chad Brown knows where to run his horses. His Tesio win was pretty impressive given the fast early pace and the fact that he was pressing it in the slop, and he's now won three straight. He'll have to move forward, of course, but he's got every opportunity to and is intriguing if he drifts up from his current 16/1 offshore odds. Except he's now 7/1, which is just silly.
GORMLEY is a little interesting if only because of how the Belmont typically plays out to the advantage of a pace presser, and his pedigree suggests he'll see out 12 furlongs plenty well.
Finally, PATCH has been outworked by TAPWRIT in the mornings and was disappointing without much excuse in the Derby, yet Pletcher is running him back here in his fifth lifetime start. He obviously thinks very highly of him and, to be fair, he was basically bred to win this race out of two Belmont winning sires, UNION RAGS and A.P. INDY. He was wildly overbet in the Derby (and got the biggest cheer of any horse pre-race at Caesars Palace sportsbook), but if that doesn't happen here, he could be worth a shot.
SENIOR INVESTMENT was closing nicely enough in the Preakness and with A.P. INDY two sires back and out of a DEPUTY COMMANDER dam, he should enjoy the stretch out. But he is one of those that is devoid of early speed and they almost never come from the clouds to win the Belmont, and he was 31/1 in the Preakness for a reason. Amazingly enough he is 8/1 offshore right now; I wouldn't even bet 20/1. MULTIPLIER is very much the same -- they'll both be well back early, and maybe they'll plod on to run third or fourth, but I don't see either of these seriously impacting the race.
MEANTIME is a son of perhaps my favorite-ever horse, SHACKLEFORD, but the Shack was always fairly suspect beyond nine furlongs (even a mile, to be honest) and only won the Preakness due to his enormous heart. He doesn't necessarily get a huge dose of distance from his damside, either, so the pedigree looks pretty poor for 12 furlongs. That said, he stayed on quite well (like his sire would have) in the Peter Pan to finish second after setting a pretty swift pace in the slop and ran a big speed figure there, and there's the possibility that they let him go as the lone speed. Ultimately though, SHACKELFORD spit the bit in the stretch of the 2011 Belmont, and even if MEANTIME gets away with that lead, I don't think he'll see it all the way through.
In short:
Given how the odds are shaping up in this race, I don't have anything resembling a strong opinion.
J BOYS ECHO, TAPWRIT, PATCH and GORMLEY are the four that interest me most -- in that order. I would kick myself if any of these won without my support, so I'll likely spread to all of them a little bit and tee up exotics using them along with IRISH WAR CRY.