THE 2018 PREAKNESS STAKES
(If you prefer to consume your race previews with your ears, click here for my Preakness podcast with Zach Trexler)
The best horse usually wins the Preakness.
Whereas the Derby is more of a crapshoot of 20 horses and you can lose all chance in the calvary charge out of the gate, the Preakness typically amounts to essentially a two- or three-horse race -- there's at least one obviously very good horse in top form (the Derby winner), and the shorter field and distance drown out traffic and pedigree concerns.
With that said, it would be *very* hard to play against JUSTIFY with any semblance of confidence. While I do think his Derby win is being overrated by some (while they did run very fast early in that :45 and change half, they slowed it down to 1:11 and change for 3/4, which is a pretty big break -- the BRIS pace figures show a +8 for the first call (which is the half in :45 and change, meaning they ran four lengths faster than typical), but the second call is a solid 0 (which means the pace for 3/4 was more of the "average" variety). The horse that comes to mind as a comparison is BODEMEISTER in 2012, as he was hounded by TRINNIBERG through a similar :45 and change half ... the difference is that 3/4 in that race went in 1:09 and change, and of course I'LL HAVE ANOTHER ran him down deep in the stretch.
So while I don't think the Derby win was all that impressive, JUSTIFY did have a very good horse in GOOD MAGIC come to him at the top of the stretch ... and like he did with another very good horse in BOLT D'ORO in the Santa Anita Derby, he put him away. And what did BOLT D'ORO do the next time he came close to JUSTIFY? He absolutely wilted. And so I think that's in play for GOOD MAGIC, too -- the next time he gets close to JUSTIFY, I could see him wilting just like BOLT D'ORO in the Kentucky Derby. GOOD MAGIC tried hard in the stretch and was worked hard by Jose Ortiz, but no matter what the connections say, I have a hard time believe that a) he's not spent physically and b) perhaps more importantly, he's spent mentally.
QUIP would be more interesting if he wasn't owned by the same connections of JUSTIFY. I know they're saying the right things (i.e. "If JUSTIFY is meant to win the Triple Crown, he'll beat QUIP"), but when push comes to shove, they're not going to use tactics on QUIP that could hurt JUSTIFY's chances to win. If anything, they would use an abundance of caution with QUIP. So, while I don't think it's not like they won't want QUIP to win, it's more likely that they want him to run second to JUSTIFY.
The rest of these horses ... are just not very good. Baffert made a comment that JUSTIFY breathes different air, and when it comes to the Preakness field in particular ... it's 100% true. If you're betting against JUSTIFY, you're not betting that these other horses are better than him ... you're betting that JUSTIFY has a very bad day or that he's hurt/tired in ways we don't know, essentially. That's it. Even if he ran worse than he's ever run in his career, the odds would still be more likely than not that he would win, and that's even allowing for improvement from some of these other horses. That's how lopsided this race looks to me.
So, there are really two ways I look at this race, with bias to this one: JUSTIFY is far, far too good for these, and he'll win easily. Obviously the scratches/bruised heel narrative gives some pause, but they're not going to run a lame horse, and I think he's good enough to win even if he isn't at his best. The other would be buying into some combination of the following: JUSTIFY isn't 100%, he's running for the fifth time in three months, and there's enough pace in this race to make him work -- so this thing could get blown up entirely.
As in the Derby, I don't want to lose money betting against JUSTIFY, and overall my opinion on him is a little stronger this time than in the Derby, so I'll aim to actually make money purely on him if he wins. As for the other seven horses, I'll break this down the same way I did the Derby:
Pace Players Only
8) #1 Quip, 12/1
If he wins ... We'll laud his connections for skipping the Derby and bringing a fresh horse to Pimlico even though he was good enough to make the Derby (a la last year's Preakness winner, CLOUD COMPUTING). We'll note what a fighter he has been, setting the pace and then battling gamely in the lane to hold on for as much as he could. And if we're really feeling conspiracy theory-ish, we'll say that the connections must have won a boatload of money betting on QUIP while knowing that JUSTIFY wasn't 100%.
If he loses ... Oh, I don't even know where to begin. For one, the fact that the owners aren't afraid to run him against JUSTIFY says that even though they might not necessarily be using him for "nefarious" purposes, they don't think he's in the same league and are just trying to pick up a check (i.e. "If JUSTIFY is going to win the Triple Crown, he'll beat QUIP). He was the beneficiary of being involved in very slow paces in his Tampa Bay Derby win and the Arkansas Derby second, and his pedigree would indicate he really didn't want to do much more than a mile, anyway.
In short ... I think he may well be a better horse than BRAVAZO or SPORTING CHANCE, but in this spot, with this likely pace scenario (faster than he's ever done before), I think the only way he wins is if there's some, ahem, "funny" business going on.
7) #4 Diamond King, 30/1
If he wins ... We'll note that he was 4-of-6 lifetime coming into the race (4-of-5 in races in which he didn't lose his rider), and that he didn't really get away with anything in any of those races -- he either set or sat close to quick paces, but still found enough to win the race in the end. We'll note that his 95 speed fig in his last race was his second 95 in his career, which we could have easily seen as a harbinger of another move forward. And we'll note that getting the best jockey around, Javier Castellano, aboard, was a winning move last year for new shooter CLOUD COMPUTING, and that DIAMOND KING fit a similar theme. Finally, we'll point to the pedigree as being solid with QUALITY ROAD as his sire and a MALIBU MOON dam, which obviously gave him enough to ace the 9 furlong Tesio on April 21.
If he loses ... We'll ask ourselves why he was pointed for the Swale and then not even given a shot in one of the last rounds of Derby preps. We'll note that while the Tesio was 9 furlongs, clearly that was against the second or third or fourth tier of 3-year-olds, and that sitting off of fractions like :48 1/5 and 1:13 1/5 would have put him roughly 15 lengths back in the Kentucky Derby.
In short ... Clearly he has blazing speed, as he posted a :21 4/5 opening quarter in a race at Parx last October yet still won, finishing up in 1:17 3/5. And clearly he could run 9 furlongs as he won his last race. The problem is that he's moving way up in class and will have to face some other real speed with real proven distance aptitude here. He's a play against.
Just Not Good Enough
6) #8 Bravazo, 20/1
If he wins ... We'll note that while he was soundly beaten in the Derby, he greatly outran his odds and even ran 44 feet further than JUSTIFY -- which in theory comes out to about 5.5 lengths, and he was only beaten by 8 lengths! Drawing a line through his Louisiana Derby no-show put him on par with some of the other horses contesting this race, and whatever the case was in the Derby, he seemed to live up to his pedigree and enjoy the off track (CEE'S TIZZY has an amazing 20% strike rate with mud runners).
If he loses ... I gave him 0 chance coming into the Derby for a reason. Even the mud could only move him up to sixth, and he was still beaten by eight lengths, and he never once threatened in any meaningful way. The pedigree never seemed right for the distance, and although he did finish sixth in the Derby, he actually lost two positions in the stretch.
In short ... I wouldn't fault anyone for tossing him into the bottom part of an exotic play, but I just cannot imagine a scenario in which he wins this race.
5) #3 Sporting Chance, 30/1
If he wins ... We'll say that once you crossed a line through the Pat Day Mile (in which he was checked and further back than he ever had been), his past performances didn't look all that different from that of GOOD MAGIC. Sure, obviously he wasn't quite the same quality this year, but he had a 98 figure last year that, if he could improve on just a bit, could put him in the conversation. And he had two sharp bullet works prior to the Pat Day that showed he was sitting on a big effort that he didn't get to show on Derby Day.
If he loses ... We'll say this was another big reach from Lukas and that this horse knew how to find himself trouble, whether it was by running into tight areas or ducking out late from the whip, and so on. And that his pedigree is more of a miler slant, so 9.5 furlongs was definitely a pretty big question mark to begin with.
In short ... SPORTING CHANCE's win in the Hopeful last year was the best thing I saw on track in 2017, but he just hasn't shown improvement this year despite four chances to do it. He's just not good enough, although with the way he's hung around late, I wouldn't fault you for tossing him into the bottom of a trifecta.
Maybe not entirely hopeless?
4) #2 Lone Sailor, 15/1
If he wins ... We'll note just how troubled his Kentucky Derby trip was -- sure, he got a rail run, but not until after he was "stymied" as the chart says -- yet he still ran eighth.
If he loses ... LONE SAILOR on the other hand actually ran 41 lengths less but was stopped while making his run, so while he ended up eighth, beaten 9.25 lengths, you can certainly argue he would have been closer, and he appears to relish the mud, as well.
In short ... I had him ranked very low entering the Derby for a reason (#18), but between how he handled the mud and the trip and the distance, I respect him more now than I did. And I think the way this race might set up -- with potentially QUIP, DIAMOND KING and SPORTING CHANCE pushing to be on/near the lead in addition to JUSTIFY (and GOOD MAGIC of course was never more than a few lengths off the lead in the Derby, either ... and TENFOLD also has never been more than two lengths off the pace in any of his races), things could get a little crazy. And if they do, well, he's the only real closer in the race, so he has a chance.
Untapped Potential
3) #6 Tenfold, 20/1
If he wins ... We'll say that the fact he showed up here at all said it all. Coming in off a fifth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, this horse -- who only started racing nine days before JUSTIFY -- didn't seem to be a particularly logical Preakness contender on paper, but obviously the connections felt he belonged. And about those connections -- Steve Asmussen is one of the game's best, and he conditioned CURLIN, who won the Preakness in 2007 ... and who is the sire of TENFOLD. And who relished the mud, much like TENFOLD'S damsire, TAPIT. And what a pedigree that is! And, finally, Victor Espinoza rode in that Arkansas Derby no-show -- getting Ricardo Santana back aboard, who was on for both career wins, was a clear improvement.
If he loses ... The narrative is really that he just wasn't good enough to begin with, and that Arkansas Derby was a bad race, so the fact that he couldn't do any better than fifth after sitting close to the pace early didn't bode well. His speed figures of 92-93-94 were well below JUSTIFY's and clearly below GOOD MAGIC's, so betting on him to win was basically betting that he took a huge step forward out of essentially nowhere and the others took a huge step backward out of the Derby.
In short ... I know it seems relatively absurd to have the co-longest shot in the field as my third choice, but I'll take a shot on this one. Again, new shooters mostly = overrated, but I love this one particularly because he's NOT coming in with any hype and doesn't really seem to deserve to be here at all. Santana is much better than Espinoza, and while JUSTIFY certainly has no problems with an off track himself, TENFOLD could move way up on it based on pedigree. He certainly needs to improve from a speed figure perspective, but unlike some of the more seasoned competitors here who would seem to have more established ranges of ability, this is a horse who no doubt hasn't shown his best yet -- it's just a question of how good his best might be. Obviously it's probably not good enough, but at what I assume will be a pretty good price, he's worth a stab.
He probably can't win
2) #5 Good Magic, 3/1
If he wins ... It's pretty much the same story as in the Kentucky Derby. Even though there's maybe not that much to be excited about, he had to go wider than he might have liked around BOLT D'ORO and while he wouldn't have gotten to JUSTIFY, he probably deserved to finish a more clear second than just barely holding on over AUDIBLE. And basically we'll say he's been so consistently very good (if not quite great), we still knew he COULD be great if he ran back to his BC Juvenile, and that knowing that JUSTIFY was quite possibly not 100%, 7/2 was a good value bet, particularly given that Brown decided to run him again after saying right after the race that he wasn't going to -- obviously GOOD MAGIC must have been knocking down the doors to run.
If he loses ... We'll say there was just no way he was going to beat JUSTIFY, plain and simple. Like with BOLT D'ORO before him, once they got close to such a classy animal, there was no going back. And we'll say that he had three starts this year and ran speed figures of 98-98-99 ... and it would be hard to expect him to move forward off of two weeks rest if he couldn't in the three prior perfectly planned starts.
In short ... GOOD MAGIC is obviously worth including in exotics and pretty obviously the second-best horse in the race. But I don't really see him beating JUSTIFY more than *maybe* 15% of the time, so he'd have to be 6/1 or higher to warrant a win bet, which seems highly unlikely.
You probably can't beat him
1) #7 Justify, 1/2
If he wins ... We'll say it was obvious that he is head and shoulders, and even torso, above the rest of this 3-year-old group. He may be an all-time great in the making, and anything above 1/5 was a bargain.
If he loses ... Apollo caught up to him. He was tired with so many races in a short period. His heel was sore. His Derby win was slow and showed regression from his previous speed figures. He was aided by the slop at Churchill and the lack of any other pace pressers -- he wasn't quite so lucky at Pimlico.
In short ... He's the best horse in the race, and based on any sensible form of handicapping, he deserves to be 2/5 or 3/5.
THE PLAYS
JUSTIFY to win = $100
TENFOLD to win = $10
JUSTIFY-TENFOLD-GOOD MAGIC exacta box = $12
JUSTIFY/TENFOLD with JUSTIFY/TENFOLD/GOOD MAGIC with TENFOLD/GOOD MAGIC/LONE SAILOR trifecta (no typo here in leaving JUSTIFY out of third -- the thinking is that if JUSTIFY doesn't fire, there's no way they're perservering with him to finish third, though he could get nipped at the wire to lose by a head) = $8
In short, if JUSTIFY wins at 2/5 and none of the other bets hit, I'll still make $10. Obviously TENFOLD is my key to making actual money, so I'll certainly be watching him all the way around the track on Saturday!
The best horse usually wins the Preakness.
Whereas the Derby is more of a crapshoot of 20 horses and you can lose all chance in the calvary charge out of the gate, the Preakness typically amounts to essentially a two- or three-horse race -- there's at least one obviously very good horse in top form (the Derby winner), and the shorter field and distance drown out traffic and pedigree concerns.
With that said, it would be *very* hard to play against JUSTIFY with any semblance of confidence. While I do think his Derby win is being overrated by some (while they did run very fast early in that :45 and change half, they slowed it down to 1:11 and change for 3/4, which is a pretty big break -- the BRIS pace figures show a +8 for the first call (which is the half in :45 and change, meaning they ran four lengths faster than typical), but the second call is a solid 0 (which means the pace for 3/4 was more of the "average" variety). The horse that comes to mind as a comparison is BODEMEISTER in 2012, as he was hounded by TRINNIBERG through a similar :45 and change half ... the difference is that 3/4 in that race went in 1:09 and change, and of course I'LL HAVE ANOTHER ran him down deep in the stretch.
So while I don't think the Derby win was all that impressive, JUSTIFY did have a very good horse in GOOD MAGIC come to him at the top of the stretch ... and like he did with another very good horse in BOLT D'ORO in the Santa Anita Derby, he put him away. And what did BOLT D'ORO do the next time he came close to JUSTIFY? He absolutely wilted. And so I think that's in play for GOOD MAGIC, too -- the next time he gets close to JUSTIFY, I could see him wilting just like BOLT D'ORO in the Kentucky Derby. GOOD MAGIC tried hard in the stretch and was worked hard by Jose Ortiz, but no matter what the connections say, I have a hard time believe that a) he's not spent physically and b) perhaps more importantly, he's spent mentally.
QUIP would be more interesting if he wasn't owned by the same connections of JUSTIFY. I know they're saying the right things (i.e. "If JUSTIFY is meant to win the Triple Crown, he'll beat QUIP"), but when push comes to shove, they're not going to use tactics on QUIP that could hurt JUSTIFY's chances to win. If anything, they would use an abundance of caution with QUIP. So, while I don't think it's not like they won't want QUIP to win, it's more likely that they want him to run second to JUSTIFY.
The rest of these horses ... are just not very good. Baffert made a comment that JUSTIFY breathes different air, and when it comes to the Preakness field in particular ... it's 100% true. If you're betting against JUSTIFY, you're not betting that these other horses are better than him ... you're betting that JUSTIFY has a very bad day or that he's hurt/tired in ways we don't know, essentially. That's it. Even if he ran worse than he's ever run in his career, the odds would still be more likely than not that he would win, and that's even allowing for improvement from some of these other horses. That's how lopsided this race looks to me.
So, there are really two ways I look at this race, with bias to this one: JUSTIFY is far, far too good for these, and he'll win easily. Obviously the scratches/bruised heel narrative gives some pause, but they're not going to run a lame horse, and I think he's good enough to win even if he isn't at his best. The other would be buying into some combination of the following: JUSTIFY isn't 100%, he's running for the fifth time in three months, and there's enough pace in this race to make him work -- so this thing could get blown up entirely.
As in the Derby, I don't want to lose money betting against JUSTIFY, and overall my opinion on him is a little stronger this time than in the Derby, so I'll aim to actually make money purely on him if he wins. As for the other seven horses, I'll break this down the same way I did the Derby:
Pace Players Only
8) #1 Quip, 12/1
If he wins ... We'll laud his connections for skipping the Derby and bringing a fresh horse to Pimlico even though he was good enough to make the Derby (a la last year's Preakness winner, CLOUD COMPUTING). We'll note what a fighter he has been, setting the pace and then battling gamely in the lane to hold on for as much as he could. And if we're really feeling conspiracy theory-ish, we'll say that the connections must have won a boatload of money betting on QUIP while knowing that JUSTIFY wasn't 100%.
If he loses ... Oh, I don't even know where to begin. For one, the fact that the owners aren't afraid to run him against JUSTIFY says that even though they might not necessarily be using him for "nefarious" purposes, they don't think he's in the same league and are just trying to pick up a check (i.e. "If JUSTIFY is going to win the Triple Crown, he'll beat QUIP). He was the beneficiary of being involved in very slow paces in his Tampa Bay Derby win and the Arkansas Derby second, and his pedigree would indicate he really didn't want to do much more than a mile, anyway.
In short ... I think he may well be a better horse than BRAVAZO or SPORTING CHANCE, but in this spot, with this likely pace scenario (faster than he's ever done before), I think the only way he wins is if there's some, ahem, "funny" business going on.
7) #4 Diamond King, 30/1
If he wins ... We'll note that he was 4-of-6 lifetime coming into the race (4-of-5 in races in which he didn't lose his rider), and that he didn't really get away with anything in any of those races -- he either set or sat close to quick paces, but still found enough to win the race in the end. We'll note that his 95 speed fig in his last race was his second 95 in his career, which we could have easily seen as a harbinger of another move forward. And we'll note that getting the best jockey around, Javier Castellano, aboard, was a winning move last year for new shooter CLOUD COMPUTING, and that DIAMOND KING fit a similar theme. Finally, we'll point to the pedigree as being solid with QUALITY ROAD as his sire and a MALIBU MOON dam, which obviously gave him enough to ace the 9 furlong Tesio on April 21.
If he loses ... We'll ask ourselves why he was pointed for the Swale and then not even given a shot in one of the last rounds of Derby preps. We'll note that while the Tesio was 9 furlongs, clearly that was against the second or third or fourth tier of 3-year-olds, and that sitting off of fractions like :48 1/5 and 1:13 1/5 would have put him roughly 15 lengths back in the Kentucky Derby.
In short ... Clearly he has blazing speed, as he posted a :21 4/5 opening quarter in a race at Parx last October yet still won, finishing up in 1:17 3/5. And clearly he could run 9 furlongs as he won his last race. The problem is that he's moving way up in class and will have to face some other real speed with real proven distance aptitude here. He's a play against.
Just Not Good Enough
6) #8 Bravazo, 20/1
If he wins ... We'll note that while he was soundly beaten in the Derby, he greatly outran his odds and even ran 44 feet further than JUSTIFY -- which in theory comes out to about 5.5 lengths, and he was only beaten by 8 lengths! Drawing a line through his Louisiana Derby no-show put him on par with some of the other horses contesting this race, and whatever the case was in the Derby, he seemed to live up to his pedigree and enjoy the off track (CEE'S TIZZY has an amazing 20% strike rate with mud runners).
If he loses ... I gave him 0 chance coming into the Derby for a reason. Even the mud could only move him up to sixth, and he was still beaten by eight lengths, and he never once threatened in any meaningful way. The pedigree never seemed right for the distance, and although he did finish sixth in the Derby, he actually lost two positions in the stretch.
In short ... I wouldn't fault anyone for tossing him into the bottom part of an exotic play, but I just cannot imagine a scenario in which he wins this race.
5) #3 Sporting Chance, 30/1
If he wins ... We'll say that once you crossed a line through the Pat Day Mile (in which he was checked and further back than he ever had been), his past performances didn't look all that different from that of GOOD MAGIC. Sure, obviously he wasn't quite the same quality this year, but he had a 98 figure last year that, if he could improve on just a bit, could put him in the conversation. And he had two sharp bullet works prior to the Pat Day that showed he was sitting on a big effort that he didn't get to show on Derby Day.
If he loses ... We'll say this was another big reach from Lukas and that this horse knew how to find himself trouble, whether it was by running into tight areas or ducking out late from the whip, and so on. And that his pedigree is more of a miler slant, so 9.5 furlongs was definitely a pretty big question mark to begin with.
In short ... SPORTING CHANCE's win in the Hopeful last year was the best thing I saw on track in 2017, but he just hasn't shown improvement this year despite four chances to do it. He's just not good enough, although with the way he's hung around late, I wouldn't fault you for tossing him into the bottom of a trifecta.
Maybe not entirely hopeless?
4) #2 Lone Sailor, 15/1
If he wins ... We'll note just how troubled his Kentucky Derby trip was -- sure, he got a rail run, but not until after he was "stymied" as the chart says -- yet he still ran eighth.
If he loses ... LONE SAILOR on the other hand actually ran 41 lengths less but was stopped while making his run, so while he ended up eighth, beaten 9.25 lengths, you can certainly argue he would have been closer, and he appears to relish the mud, as well.
In short ... I had him ranked very low entering the Derby for a reason (#18), but between how he handled the mud and the trip and the distance, I respect him more now than I did. And I think the way this race might set up -- with potentially QUIP, DIAMOND KING and SPORTING CHANCE pushing to be on/near the lead in addition to JUSTIFY (and GOOD MAGIC of course was never more than a few lengths off the lead in the Derby, either ... and TENFOLD also has never been more than two lengths off the pace in any of his races), things could get a little crazy. And if they do, well, he's the only real closer in the race, so he has a chance.
Untapped Potential
3) #6 Tenfold, 20/1
If he wins ... We'll say that the fact he showed up here at all said it all. Coming in off a fifth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, this horse -- who only started racing nine days before JUSTIFY -- didn't seem to be a particularly logical Preakness contender on paper, but obviously the connections felt he belonged. And about those connections -- Steve Asmussen is one of the game's best, and he conditioned CURLIN, who won the Preakness in 2007 ... and who is the sire of TENFOLD. And who relished the mud, much like TENFOLD'S damsire, TAPIT. And what a pedigree that is! And, finally, Victor Espinoza rode in that Arkansas Derby no-show -- getting Ricardo Santana back aboard, who was on for both career wins, was a clear improvement.
If he loses ... The narrative is really that he just wasn't good enough to begin with, and that Arkansas Derby was a bad race, so the fact that he couldn't do any better than fifth after sitting close to the pace early didn't bode well. His speed figures of 92-93-94 were well below JUSTIFY's and clearly below GOOD MAGIC's, so betting on him to win was basically betting that he took a huge step forward out of essentially nowhere and the others took a huge step backward out of the Derby.
In short ... I know it seems relatively absurd to have the co-longest shot in the field as my third choice, but I'll take a shot on this one. Again, new shooters mostly = overrated, but I love this one particularly because he's NOT coming in with any hype and doesn't really seem to deserve to be here at all. Santana is much better than Espinoza, and while JUSTIFY certainly has no problems with an off track himself, TENFOLD could move way up on it based on pedigree. He certainly needs to improve from a speed figure perspective, but unlike some of the more seasoned competitors here who would seem to have more established ranges of ability, this is a horse who no doubt hasn't shown his best yet -- it's just a question of how good his best might be. Obviously it's probably not good enough, but at what I assume will be a pretty good price, he's worth a stab.
He probably can't win
2) #5 Good Magic, 3/1
If he wins ... It's pretty much the same story as in the Kentucky Derby. Even though there's maybe not that much to be excited about, he had to go wider than he might have liked around BOLT D'ORO and while he wouldn't have gotten to JUSTIFY, he probably deserved to finish a more clear second than just barely holding on over AUDIBLE. And basically we'll say he's been so consistently very good (if not quite great), we still knew he COULD be great if he ran back to his BC Juvenile, and that knowing that JUSTIFY was quite possibly not 100%, 7/2 was a good value bet, particularly given that Brown decided to run him again after saying right after the race that he wasn't going to -- obviously GOOD MAGIC must have been knocking down the doors to run.
If he loses ... We'll say there was just no way he was going to beat JUSTIFY, plain and simple. Like with BOLT D'ORO before him, once they got close to such a classy animal, there was no going back. And we'll say that he had three starts this year and ran speed figures of 98-98-99 ... and it would be hard to expect him to move forward off of two weeks rest if he couldn't in the three prior perfectly planned starts.
In short ... GOOD MAGIC is obviously worth including in exotics and pretty obviously the second-best horse in the race. But I don't really see him beating JUSTIFY more than *maybe* 15% of the time, so he'd have to be 6/1 or higher to warrant a win bet, which seems highly unlikely.
You probably can't beat him
1) #7 Justify, 1/2
If he wins ... We'll say it was obvious that he is head and shoulders, and even torso, above the rest of this 3-year-old group. He may be an all-time great in the making, and anything above 1/5 was a bargain.
If he loses ... Apollo caught up to him. He was tired with so many races in a short period. His heel was sore. His Derby win was slow and showed regression from his previous speed figures. He was aided by the slop at Churchill and the lack of any other pace pressers -- he wasn't quite so lucky at Pimlico.
In short ... He's the best horse in the race, and based on any sensible form of handicapping, he deserves to be 2/5 or 3/5.
THE PLAYS
JUSTIFY to win = $100
TENFOLD to win = $10
JUSTIFY-TENFOLD-GOOD MAGIC exacta box = $12
JUSTIFY/TENFOLD with JUSTIFY/TENFOLD/GOOD MAGIC with TENFOLD/GOOD MAGIC/LONE SAILOR trifecta (no typo here in leaving JUSTIFY out of third -- the thinking is that if JUSTIFY doesn't fire, there's no way they're perservering with him to finish third, though he could get nipped at the wire to lose by a head) = $8
In short, if JUSTIFY wins at 2/5 and none of the other bets hit, I'll still make $10. Obviously TENFOLD is my key to making actual money, so I'll certainly be watching him all the way around the track on Saturday!