The 2016 Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby is not the best horse race that will be run in North America this year.
It is simply the most fun.
While this is likely common knowledge to some of the readers who happen upon this preview, it's important enough to bear repeating to even the most seasoned handicapper -- the Kentucky Derby is a race for 3-year-old horses only, which means that the majority of them have only been racing for about eight months at this point (some have been a bit longer, but at most a year).
This is important because picking the Kentucky Derby winner is generally less about what a horse has done already and more about what each horse might be capable of doing. In terms that a general sports fan might better understand, picking the Kentucky Derby winner is kind of like deciding which player to take in the NBA draft -- that 7-footer from Europe who just started playing basketball two years ago might just be better in the long-term than the 6-foot 7-inch center who just won the NCAA title.
Of course, that goes both ways: That 7-footer from Europe with all the upside may just not be any good in the end. And so it is with the 20 horses who will stand in the starting gate this Saturday -- on one hand, it is the ultimate test of handicapping skill, and on the other it is the ultimate crapshoot. But if you like handicapping and crapshoots (as I most certainly do!), then there's absolutely nothing better than trying to decode the Kentucky Derby.
This year's Kentucky Derby is particularly difficult. Last year, there was AMERICAN PHAROAH at 5/2 and then DORTMUND at 4-1; CARPE DIEM was 7-1 and FIRING LINE was 9-1, and three of those horses ran in the top three. It was a very "true to form" race, and, frankly, a pretty boring race -- the top three finishers were the top three in some order the entire way around the track.
The 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby looks somewhat similar in that there may not be a great deal of perceived pace -- which typically favors frontrunners -- but on the other hand is entirely different because the predicted frontrunner (DANZING CANDY) is 25-1 and the second choice at around 7-1 in offshore markets (EXAGGERATOR) has recently shown his best form as a deep closer.
All of which is to say is that I don't believe we can draw too many conclusions from recent runnings of the Kentucky Derby -- the level of parity in this field is unmeasured in my decade-long history as a true racing fan, and so I think frankly there's more "gut" and "upside prediction" going on in this year's edition than ever before. This is the eighth time that I've put together a formal preview, and in looking back over the years, it just doesn't compare at all. There were very clear tosses in the past ... like the eventual 50-1 winner in 2009, MINE THAT BIRD. Here's what I wrote about him in my first official Kentucky Derby preview:
So, you know, when MINE THAT BIRD stormed up the rail to win in jaw-dropping fashion, it proved that absolutely anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby. And the other positive was that there was nowhere to go but up for this preview. To keep myself somewhat honest, I compiled the record of my top two picks in the Kentucky Derby over the past seven years:
In other words, the year that I did the best overall was the year that I knew the least about horse racing (2009). Overall, I am a lifetime loser on the Kentucky Derby -- while the charitable version of the above would be that you would be $70 ahead if you bet $10 on each of my top two picks over the past seven years thanks to the 20-1 win from ANIMAL KINGDOM, the reality is that I've bet too much on both my top pick and other exotics wagers to be profitable.
If I'm losing you at this point, let me just point out that my track record in the major prep races this year has been kind of fantastic (did I mention that I'm kind of a big deal?). Here's how the 50 and 100 point races played out, with the races I actually bet correctly in bold (if you're not familiar with the concept of points, check this out: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/how-does-it-work):
I share that for a few reasons. For one, even the best horseplayers lose more than they win (unless they're bridge jumping and rebate whoring, which is a topic for another time), so there's a need to celebrate successes when you can. And secondly, it's to prove to the few people that are still reading this after this significant preamble that I would like to think I have a reasonably good grasp on this crop of horses.
With all of that said, what I've done below is separate the horses into a variety of tiers according to how likely I feel they are to win the race. What this means is that -- spoiler alert -- even though I absolutely won't bet NYQUIST to win at the low odds he's expected to leave the starting gate at, he is still much more likely to win the race than many of the other horses in the race. This also means that I might consider some of the horses on the lower end of the scale in exotics, but I'll point that out as I go along and circle back at the end to wrap things up.
Here goes ... if by chance I wasn't kind to your previously chosen horse, don't let me talk you off of them:
The "SHOOT ME DEAD IF THIS HORSE WINS" tier:
20. TOM'S READY (post position #12, 30-1 morning line): He was second in the Louisiana Derby at odds of 30-1, and a well-beaten four lengths to boot. While that alone leaves me inclined to believe he is kind of a default inclusion, he did run a speed figure of 99 there, and Dallas Stewart has a history of running well with longshots (see GOLDEN SOUL and COMMANDING CURVE). He has run reasonably well at Churchill Downs, with a win and a second from three starts. I don't think that much of him to recommend a play, but who knows with these connections. Could he run on late for another in-the-money finish? Sure. But could he win? Well, unless his April 29th workmate was a Derby contender himself (note: he's not), TOM'S READY is in trouble -- he couldn't separate from that one at all coming through the lane. I just can't imagine a scenario in which he wins.
The "MINE THAT BIRD-STYLE SHOCKER" Tier:
19. TROJAN NATION (post position #1, 50-1 morning line): Based on pedigree alone, the fact that this one went off at 81-1 in the Wood was crazy. The pedigree itself is darn good, and he's been working well out of the Wood Memorial. On the other hand, he is still winless in six starts, and while he did run pretty big in the Wood, he got the dream rail trip and still couldn't run down OUTWORK, who had put in a pace at the second call that BRIS called +29, or 14.5 lengths faster than would be expected given the time and the way the track was playing (I question this particular pace assessment quite a bit, but alas, it can't be discounted entirely). There's enough here for me to be halfway intrigued, but there are so many horses that have shown better form already. And winning out of the one hole would be absolutely insane. I would probably pass out.
18. DANZING CANDY (post position #20, 15-1 morning line): This is a horrible morning line, by the way. It pains me to put him down here because I love his sire (TWIRLING CANDY -- if I had $15,000 and a mare to send to any sire, I would plop down the money immediately and ship her off to Lane's End in Versailles). But his damside sire is SONGANDAPRAYER, who was just a crack sprinter and set the fastest fractions in the history of the Kentucky Derby. That kind of pedigree can stretch you to 1 1/16 miles as it did in the San Felipe, but once you get to nine and ten furlongs, it becomes a problem. His Santa Anita Derby half-mile fraction was insane at :45 1/5, but frankly he got a fairly nice break getting to six furlongs in 1:10 flat, and he should have loved the mud based on the pedigree. But he folded up shop on the turn and ended up 13 lengths back of EXAGGERATOR, and I just see no way he gets 10 furlongs on the lead. Even if he somehow gets away with dawdling fractions due to no other truly crazy pace horse, I still can't see him seeing out 10 furlongs. Post position #20 more or less confirms he has to go all-out to the lead; otherwise he could be hung wide, so to me that is kind of that -- his dash to the lead could cause some issues for the horses behind him on the inside. No matter what happens early, someone will run him down late.
17. OSCAR NOMINATED (post position #7, 50-1 morning line): On the plus side, he would seem able to run forever, and turf pedigrees do typically perform better than you'd think on the dirt at Churchill. On the other hand, there's everything else -- that he's run slow figures, that he's never run on dirt, period, and so on. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him running on toward the end by any means -- ANIMAL KINGDOM won the Derby coming out of the Spiral, mind you -- but he might be a less likely winner than MINE THAT BIRD was. His April 29th work really illustrated his turfy stride, too; he kind of skips along and doesn't stride out as much as I would like to see on the dirt, especially since he's never run on it before, and he's never particularly fast on turf or artificial surfaces, either.
16. WHITMORE (post position #10, 20-1 morning line): This horse has had some seemingly bad and wide trips, but these came in races with fast paces, so was being wide necessarily that bad to avoid any traffic in these races? His pedigree looks good so there are no issues there, and he gets Victor Espinoza aboard. Can that menacing mid-race move be strong enough to get him home in the Derby? I thought he was a winner in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby at the quarter pole, but in both cases he could not get the job done down the lane and ended up second and third, respectively. Both CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS ran by him in the Arkansas Derby, and there was really no excuse to my eye -- so I can't really figure out how he could turn the tables on them in Louisville. I wouldn't discount him for exotics, but I just really don't see him winning.
The "Sorta-possibly-maybe-intriguing" Tier:
15. LANI (post position #8, 30-1 morning line): To be honest, this horse probably belongs in the "shocker" tier, but the pedigree is really cool with TAPIT as the sire and a SUNDAY SILENCE mare. He should love the distance and it would seem that based on his training consisting of running around the track four or five times every other day that he'll be in great shape, perhaps better than any other horse. And if every other horse is suspect in terms of distance breeding, maybe he'll see out the 10 furlongs better than any of them? His UAE Derby win was pretty uninspiring visually as he looked dead in the water on numerous occasions, once after making a big mid-race move from last to second, but then getting passed by a few others coming out of the turn and seemingly spinning his wheels ... but then finding a sort of extra gear (almost like MOR SPIRIT moves late in races), or maybe the other horses just stopped, but finding enough to get up for the win. And the time of the UAE Derby was just as uninspiring as the visual, but you can never really know what to make of the times from that track. My overall feeling is that when you watch enough horse racing, you get a pretty good idea of how horses move during a race that will tell you whether they're really moving well or whether others are simply not, and I think the UAE Derby that stamped his ticket to America was more of the latter than the former. But hey, if, as his connections say, he wants to run on Saturday (the running joke is that some days he simply doesn't want to run), then maybe he'll show us something he hasn't before.
14. MAJESTO (post position #18, 30-1 morning line): The lights went on for this one prior to his start in the Florida Derby, when he finally broke his maiden in his fifth start. He's bred for distance and I liked him as a potential value play in the Florida Derby, but I was actually disappointed in his run there -- yes, he finished second, beaten only three lengths, but he actually lost ground in the stretch despite getting the quintessential dream trip from Castellano. Javier now gets off to ride DESTIN here, so that's a decent-sized loss. There has been some talk of his "huge" gallop out in the Florida Derby when he ran past NYQUIST past the wire, but given that he made up no ground through the stretch whatsoever, that's irrelevant to me. He also hasn't had a break since Dec. 12, and when you consider that MOHAYMEN just didn't show up at all, who did he really beat in the Florida Derby? The positive for this horse, however, would be that he's never really gotten that truly *hot* pace to close into, so what might he be capable of when he gets it? His April 29th work just looked slow and green. He sure doesn't make moving look easy. I like the pedigree and the "what if?" notion of a hotter pace for him enough to place him here, but realistically I have a hard time envisioning it.
The "Absolute Question Marks That Make Me Uncomfortable" Tier:
13. OUTWORK (post position #15, 15-1 morning line): And we have now reached the point of the preview where I really don't feel all that comfortable placing certain horses. He has only run four times so there may be more than meets the eye here, but he won the slowest Wood Memorial in a long, long time, barely staggering home over a 41-1 shot. With that said, he threw down early there within a head of the lead, laying down a :46 4/5 half, so he may have proverbially ran most of the field off of its feet. Another positive sign I'm seeing is that there doesn't seem to be a lot of pace in this race, so it seems within the realm of possibility that he could get an uncontested lead and take them all on a merry chase around the track. On the other hand, NYQUIST is one of the few that figures to be up there with him, so it's not as if there's some "cheap" speed he has to contend with -- he'll have to fight off the Derby favorite and then go on with it. And of course the extremely speedy DANZING CANDY is to his outside, and he's wide enough himself in post 15, so while there are not a *lot* of pace horses, the pace horses that are here are tough. Pedigree wise we have UNCLE MO popping up again as the sire, out of an EMPIRE MAKER dam. If UNCLE MO is going to get the job done as a Derby sire, based on pedigree alone this is the one. He is eligible to move forward in his fifth lifetime start after pairing speed figures in his past two, but those were figures of 96 -- he'll have to move up a solid amount to be a true win threat here. I had mixed feelings on his April 29 work. He had sort of an awkward head carriage for much of the stretch, but then when he leveled out late he was really striding out nicely. At the end of the day, the negatives of UNCLE MO and beating poor competition with poor speed figures are enough for me to take a stand against him.
12. MO TOM (post position #4, 20-1 morning line): I was initially very excited that he made the gate with the defection of CUPID. Check the comment lines in his last three races: "Checked badly." "Checked sharply." "Hit gate;bmped early." He actually won the last race listed there, the Grade 3 LeComte, back in January. He was second in the Risen Star, and then most recently when he was "checked badly," he was fourth in the Louisiana Derby. In the Risen Star, I think he likely would have won, and in the Louisiana Derby, I think he would have at least run second. Some horses find trouble on their own because they lack the spurt to go through holes, but with MO TOM, this looked like pure jockey error, particularly in the Louisiana Derby. A message board comment -- which I don't feel great about stealing, but alas -- said it looked like he was going 55 in a 30 MPH zone; there was just nowhere to go. If he gets a clear run, who knows what he could do. He also worked a near bullet in :47 flat on April 20, so you know he has plenty of pure speed to sit a bit closer if they ask him to. The pedigree is once again UNCLE MO, so that's most of the reason he's down here -- at some point with these horses, you have to start taking a stand on something, and I just don't think UNCLE MO's offspring are classic-bred horses. I'm sure they'll get a classic at some point because they're so talented and will find the right pace scenario, but in this race, I'm playing against the UNCLE MO line. I also didn't think much of MO TOM's April 29th work; he didn't look very comfortable and his action just looked somewhat stilted. And despite my belief that it wasn't really "his fault" but rather the jockey's, some horses just seem to find trouble -- was it of his own doing?
11. DESTIN (post position #9, 15-1 morning line): I initially felt kind of horrible about this one in particular. He appears to have the tactical speed to lay where it makes sense and then enough kick to distance his competition. He had to dig fairly deep to hold off OUTWORK in the Tampa Bay Derby, and what's most concerning is that he's entering the Derby off of that race, which makes it an eight-week layoff. Steve Haskin at Bloodhorse has reported that Pletcher and his team are doing this due to a huge jump in his Thoro-Graph number, which often results in a "bounce" (regression) in the next race. The BRIS figure was a fairly pedestrian 97 and the TimeForm was only slightly better than his Sam Davis win, so I sort of feel like Thoro-Graph may just be out to lunch on this one. The pedigree is ho hum -- looks great on one side, not so much on the other. On the other hand, is running style appears to be preferred in this Derby, and he's got the best jockey in the game, Javier Castellano, on his back. What finally got me off of this horse was that his last work on 4/29 was not impressive -- his workmate had to be restrained pretty heavily to let DESTIN go by, and he was fighting back on him all the way down the stretch.
10. SHAGAF (post position #16, 20-1 morning line): While I'm placing him here in terms of likelihood to win, in terms of value betting, I think he might be at or near the top come Derby Day. He was undefeated before having one bad race. This horse was the 9/5 favorite in the Wood Memorial and moved up like a monster around the turn ... only to simply not go on. It was a head scratcher. If he had won that race, what would he be in the Derby? An undefeated Wood Memorial winner trained by Chad Brown? 5-1? Instead he might be 30-1, and if so, yes please! The pedigree is fantastic, so you have to wonder if he just really didn't like the mud and got sick of it flying into his face when the real running started. Maybe he's just not that good, but do we really know that? Again, much like MOHAYMEN, he was further back than he had ever been previously, so that also probably had an impact. The most negative move in my mind is that Irad Ortiz, who has ridden SHAGAF in all four of his races to date, is actually getting off to ride fellow contender MY MAN SAM. That to me says that Irad and/or trainer Chad Brown believe MY MAN SAM is more likely to win the Derby, because Irad has previously sat on both of these horse's backs. But on the other hand, this kind of move in a race like this for the same trainer could mean a lot of things -- they both may feel that he gets along with MY MAN SAM better, who knows. And boy, SHAGAF just looks extremely good moving over the Churchill strip. His April 29th work was absolutely powerful -- he looks more mature than a lot of these other horses.
The "Right Trip, Right Pace" Tier:
9. BRODY'S CAUSE (post position #19, 12-1 morning line): The whole lot of these horses are fairly interchangeable, because it truly does seem to come down to who gets the right trip, and if any of them will get enough pace in front of them to flatter their late kicks. In the case of BRODY'S CAUSE, His Tampa Bay Derby non-effort notwithstanding, he checks the pedigree and visual boxes. But is he fast enough? That's the real question here. I think he'll run for days and his closing kick has looked impressive, but let's temper the enthusiasm by pointing out that the top three finishers in the Blue Grass were 11th-13th after a half mile in 46.75. BRODY'S CAUSE had the tactical speed and trip to split horses without going more than four wide exiting the turn, while CHERRY WINE had to wait to swing out even wider, and MY MAN SAM was something like eight- or nine-wide for half of the turn. So, the question is whether to call that sort of trip luck vs. his having the tactical ability to hit the right holes, which is absolutely crucial in a 20-horse field. I think it's some of both, and you also have to consider that he broke his maiden at Churchill, closing into a slow pace while going a mile. And there's also the fact that he may be best on turf despite only running on it once to date (in his debut) ... and Churchill is notoriously favorable for turf horses. There's a lot to like here, but can he move up enough in his third off the layoff? And can he work out a ground-saving trip from post No. 19 without essentially falling back to last?
8. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (post position #2, 20-1 morning line): Here's another one of the closers who could win if they get the pace and the trip. Out of MINESHAFT and an AFLEET ALEX mare, the pedigree fits. And it's hard to blame him for not winning some of his recent tries given the ridiculous five- and six-wide runs he was forced to make. He might just wait until a little bit too late in the game to get rolling; the Derby is rarely won "from the clouds," but he's a definite exotics player. I was ready to rank him lower at one point, but the more I thought about it, given his wide run in the Arkansas Derby, if I like CREATOR -- and I most certainly do -- I have to give this one some more credit. His April 29 work also looked great to move him up in my mind. He showed some very smooth action and galloped out very nicely. Post position No. 2 is not really a positive thing by any means, but he could save ground without having to use too much energy early if he decides to drop back enough, and that could be exactly the right play if the pace is hot enough up front.
7. MY MAN SAM (post position #6, 20-1 morning line): I feel pretty confident in saying he was *much* the best in the Blue Grass, and I blame his jockey Julien Leparoux for a classic terrible Leparoux ride. Figure-wise, he may have bounced off of a relatively huge effort in an optional claimer on March 6, nearly running down a loose MATT KING COAL on a speed-favoring track ... or maybe it was purely that eight-wide run and all of his ground loss. He gets Irad Ortiz back aboard for the Derby, so that's great and meaningful if it was a situation where Irad truly chose MY MAN SAM as better than SHAGAF. TRAPPE SHOT doesn't have a great average winning distance from his progeny at this point, but it's early enough in his sire career, and of course he's out of TAPIT, so there's enough in the family tree. ARCH as the maternal grandsire is very nice. On the negative side, one thing I always like to look for is a horse doing something he's "not supposed to do." So, for instance, a horse that ran a :46 flat half-mile and still held on to win a race going 1 1/8 miles would be something out of the ordinary and a sign that the horse might truly be special. Or a horse rallying to win from 12 lengths back into a pace that went a half in :49 flat. In the case of MY MAN SAM, he has seen faster than normal paces in his past three starts, yet has won only one of them. That's a cause for concern, but since he's only made four starts to date, there could be plenty more in the tank.
The "Maybe Great, But ..." Tier:
6. GUN RUNNER (post position #5, 10-1 morning line): This horse reminds me of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER a little bit, which of course is high praise given that he was just one race away from winning the Triple Crown before being retired with an injury. His times haven't been great, and he hasn't been particularly flashy with any big moves ... but he has great positional speed and has been good enough to just keep winning, as he is now (somewhat quietly) 4-for-4 on fast tracks. You'll see plenty of talk about how this crop has slower speed figures than previous years, but the BRIS speed figure for GUN RUNNER in his Louisiana Derby win was 104, whereas AMERICAN PHAROAH's best speed figure pre-Derby last year was 103 in the Del Mar Futurity in September of his 2-year-old season. On the other hand, he came home in 13 seconds -- which is nothing to write home about, but not terrible -- after running the 3/4 to 1 mile mark in about 25 seconds ... so how slow will that final extra furlong in the Derby be when the closers are coming from behind? Yet, visually speaking, he looks like he quickens really nicely and drives away from the field. By CANDY RIDE out of a GIANT'S CAUSEWAY mare, he should have no problem stretching out to 10 furlongs, but I can't get past the idea that MO TOM would have blown by him in at least one of those races if he hadn't encountered traffic trouble, and that GUN RUNNER hasn't truly beaten any other quality horses. If he beats me on Saturday I'll be kind of happy because I do like him as a good, honest horse ... but it doesn't seem like he'll be good enough here.
5. NYQUIST (post position #13, 3-1 morning line): Yes, I truly believe that this undefeated horse belongs here. He has run seven times and won them all, and in many ways, his actual body of work is more impressive than AMERICAN PHAROAH's at this time last year. While his speed figures have not been great -- and this is probably the major source of negativity surrounding him -- he has run against and summarily dispatched the other best horses we've seen so far multiple times. The other worry is 10 furlongs, and I subscribe to that more than the speed figures (because just having slow figures doesn't mean the other horses who have been running slower than him are more likely to jump up and get to him than if they were running fast figures). My read of the pedigree is that there are some distance concerns, and the way he bore out in the stretch of the Florida Derby is usually a sign of a tired horse. Granted, he was pushed pretty hard early and wasn't losing ground to anyone behind him, but that can have any number of factors, and bearing out is bearing out -- it may not be that bad of a thing in the grand scheme, but it's never a good sign. UNCLE MO is still somewhat of a question mark in terms of his offspring truly stretching out to a classic distance, but the grandsires of NYQUIST tell me all I need to know: INDIAN CHARLIE and FORESTRY simply are not distance-type horses. They can win at 1 1/16 without any issues, and INDIAN CHARLIE ran well in his Derby try but gave out in that last furlong. When you think about running against essentially nobody in the Florida Derby (MOHAYMEN just didn't show up for whatever reason, and who else did he beat?), 1 1/8 even seems in scope. Against 19 other individuals, almost all of them better bred for this distance, I think he's a definite underlay as the favorite. Last year, people had plenty of doubts about AMERICAN PHAROAH even though he was out of PIONEEROFTHENILE, who of course in turn was a son of Belmont winner EMPIRE MAKER. That's because his dam's sire was YANKEE GENTLEMAN, whose offspring had an average winning distance of just 6.3 furlongs. But that pedigree looked pretty good distance-wise compared to NYQUIST. NYQUIST's win going 7 furlongs in the San Vicente was monstrous, but that was 7 furlongs. This is 10. This is the Kentucky Derby. His April 29 workout was impressive in the way he put away Grade 1 winner RALIS, but they were both very keen early, and NYQUIST gawked at the stands through the stretch and switched leads late. Did he get tired working out going a mile or is he just a goofball as O'Neill claims? Your call, but at 3-1 or thereabouts, there are better places for your money. Having MOHAYMEN immediately to his outside and OUTWORK just outside of that is bad news, too; either way, he could end up swallowed up and between and behind horses early, which is something he has not done successfully yet (he was wide in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which is the only race he was really off the pace).
4. MOR SPIRIT (post position #17, 12-1 morning line): This is one boring horse, man. I've generally hated the way he's looked in the mornings -- his workouts have been fast early and slow late, and Baffert has been putting larger blinkers on him. That could be a good thing, of course, if he can sit just off the pace and it's not too hot with no real pressure on DANZING CANDY. In general, MOR SPIRIT just lopes around the track even to mid-stretch before finally hitting some sort of weird extra gear in the last 100 yards of the race. EXAGGERATOR ran by him like he was standing still in the Santa Anita Derby, and while he got the better of that one in the San Felipe, he was never a threat to the winner. The Robert B. Lewis was definitely his most impressive race, but even there the leaders got away from him a bit at the top of the stretch before he gradually (and I want to put the word "gradually" in something indicating how almost ... lazy ... it looked) reeled in the leaders and only put some distance between himself and them in the final 100 yards. The way he runs, you would indeed expect him to just lope along for days, but some will say the pedigree is suspect with DIXIE UNION on the dam side. But UNION RAGS won the Belmont four years ago and put that to rest a bit for me. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't like the way he runs and I'm not sure I like the way he's looked, but I can't totally knock his results or his pedigree and potential, either. He has been favored in each and every start to date. So, I don't really like him, but I don't really not like him, either, and the feeling is that Baffert will have him as ready as he can be. 12-1 would be nice.
3. EXAGGERATOR (post position #11, 8-1 morning line): Based on most objective measures, I would say that EXAGGERATOR should probably be the favorite. If his Santa Anita Derby win was run in that time and fashion on a fast track, I would imagine that he would be a real challenger to NYQUIST for Derby favoritism. But given that he has now claimed his most two impressive wins on off tracks, is he just a mudder? That's the real question to be answered at this point. From a speed figure perspective, though, he has run four straight triple-digit BRIS figures without any big jumps or drops at one time (despite two on slop and two on fast tracks), so in theory he's eligible to run an even bigger one here with such a strong base to build on. The damside pedigree is perhaps not as strong as it could be in terms of 10 furlongs, but I don't see it as an impediment -- just not a strength -- and CURLIN of course has already sired plenty of stakes winners going long (PALICE MALICE comes to mind as a Belmont winner a few years back). The worry is both the mud and the fact that NYQUIST has beaten him three times already, and none of those necessarily gave the impression that more distance would matter; remember, prior to the Santa Anita Derby, there were a lot of questions about whether he would be better suited as a one-run closer at a mile. There's something that doesn't feel totally right about playing him here.
The "Gut Play" Tier:
2. CREATOR (post position #3, 10-1 morning line): I always watch Derby workouts with great interest, but I would be lying if I said I felt I have a great eye for them. With that said, I have been watching them for years, and I don't recall being as taken by a horse as I have with the way CREATOR has looked in the mornings. The way he was striding out at the end of his April 25 workout was glorious. They didn't let him stretch quite as much at the end of his May 2 workout, but he still looked great and made a :50 workout look like it was a gallop. He just looks outstanding -- and I can't say that enough -- he has that long and lean look that surely comes from his mother, a Peruvian mare out of PRIVATELY HELD. It took CREATOR six starts -- four of them second-place finishes -- to break his maiden, but once he did, he stamped himself as a contender with a strong third-place run in the Rebel, and then took another step forward by winning the Arkansas Derby. There are some out there who question sons of TAPIT at 10 furlongs, and I do understand that to some extent, but the damside is chock full of stamina, and I would expect him to have no problem with the extra ground. Like many of the others in this field, he has proven himself when he has a good pace to close into; but will he get enough? He also did get the perfect trip in the Arkansas Derby, much like BRODY'S CAUSE in the Blue Grass. But what I really liked about CREATOR's Arkansas Derby run is that he somewhat *made* his own perfect trip. He bulled his way out coming into the stretch, bumping with WHITMORE and eagerly going past that one and on to the win. With 19 other horses to work through in the Derby, there will be some bumping, and knowing a horse has the constitution to take that and thrive after it is important. I have no attitude questions and no distance questions, and he looks fantastic, so this is definitely where the "gut" comes in to play -- CREATOR will be one of my main plays.
The "Forgotten Favorite" Tier:
1. MOHAYMEN (post position #14, 10-1 morning line): It's interesting what one bad race can do to the way people see a horse. MOHAYMEN was a fairly clear 7/2 choice in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby future pool on March 13. But after his complete no-show fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby at odds of 4/5, he's now available at 7-1. The distance is a bit more of a question, maybe -- he's by TAPIT, just like CREATOR, but without the Peruvian mare (actually a DIXIE UNION mare again here) -- but much less so than with NYQUIST. Beyond that, what if all the Florida Derby really showed that he simply doesn't like off tracks? The way he won the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull was so impressive that it's hard to forget. Let's also remember that the Florida Derby was a true prep race for MOHAYMEN whereas NYQUIST was running for a $1 million bonus if he won (since he was a Fasig-Tipton sale graduate). So NYQUIST was running in the Florida Derby for $1.6 million whereas MOHAYMEN was running for $600,000. With $1.24 million going to the winner of the Kentucky Derby and 19 other horses to compete against, which race would you point to as the connections of NYQUIST, and which race would you point to as the connections of MOHAYMEN? I think it is very likely that MOHAYMEN was at 80 percent in that race by design, and he'll be primed to give his best effort this Saturday. He worked a half-mile in a bullet :46 4/5 on April 20, and his April 29 work was equally full of energy. That's probably the biggest negative at this point -- is he looking *too* keyed up? Will he be sent to the lead or near it to avoid a wide trip and any traffic like he's seen in his previous races? The other question to answer is if he, too, has really beaten any horse of note: FELLOWSHIP was the only potential Derby horse, and he didn't make the gate after all. But here again, I'm going on gut and what I see -- if you go back and watch his races again, you get an appreciation for how handy he is -- he hasn't had necessarily pretty trips and he's been a bit back in the pack early on, but then he just shoots through gaps and goes on with it without being bothered. I think the energy he's showing is just a sign that he's ready to go and he will be one half of the TAPIT exacta on Derby day.
The Race Shape
So with each individual horse now discussed, we come to the part of the preview where I'll outline how I see the race playing out:
I expect DANZING CANDY to be winging it on the lead, especially from post 20, with OUTWORK prompting the pace and MOHAYMEN and NYQUIST not far behind. In fact, OUTWORK may need to just go rather than let DANZING CANDY cross in front of him, and NYQUIST may be sent, as well.
DESTIN, GUN RUNNER and SHAGAF figure to sit pretty nice trips in behind the early leaders.
OSCAR NOMINATED, MAJESTO, WHITMORE, LANI and MOR SPIRIT are likely the very much mid-pack tier, probably ahead of the *eight* closers that appear to be entirely devoid of early speed: CREATOR, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, TOM'S READY, MO TOM, BRODY'S CAUSE, MY MAN SAM, EXAGGERATOR and TROJAN NATION.
In past years, I've generally structured by approach to this race very much upon pace -- if I thought it would be fast, I would take the closers. If I thought it would be slow, I would try to take horses closer to it. But I've come to the conclusion that predicting pace is as hard as predicting the winner! So, in a race like this where there's an actually reasonable balance of speed and late-runners, I don't think you can put too much credence into any predicted pace. Gun to my head, I do think being closer to the pace is preferable, but there are closers that I think are good enough to get the job done unless they REALLY crawl, and I don't see that happening as there's enough pace signed on.
With that said, I'll call for splits of :23 2/5 and :47 1/5, and for DANZING CANDY and OUTWORK to start packing it in as they hit the far turn. NYQUIST will go on with it and we'll briefly think he might be a super horse, and then MOHAYMEN will be gearing up on his outside and we'll see those two hook up as they come into the stretch.
GUN RUNNER, SHAGAF and DESTIN will be in behind them, and will all be in a position to strike, but I'm not sure I really see any of them kicking on. MOR SPIRIT will continue to grind and start picking up pieces as the horses in front of him start to slip, but as he's passing horses, all of the closers will be winding up and it's just a question of who can get through.
As mentioned above, I think CREATOR will make his own trip and be closer than some of the other closers, so ideally he won't have quite as much traffic to sift through. He'll swing three-wide coming into the stretch to get a clear run down the lane and be striding out like a freight train as MOHAYMEN and NYQUIST continue their battle.
MOHAYMEN will start edging clear mid-stretch as NYQUIST starts to bear out. CREATOR will dive to the inside and it will be MOHAYMEN and CREATOR coming to the wire together. In behind them MOR SPIRIT will finally find his best stride with a furlong to go and start moving forward, and in a flash on the far outside, MY MAN SAM will be absolutely flying late.
As they hit the wire, it's MOHAYMEN digging deep and holding off CREATOR by a head. MOR SPIRIT will hold off MY MAN SAM by a similar margin as both cross the wire three lengths back of the winners. NYQUIST will stagger home in fifth, and from there, who knows.
Wagering Strategy
Knowing how I feel about the way the race plays out, it's obvious that CREATOR and MOHAYMEN will be my main win bets. At current offshore odds, they are 14-1 and 8-1, respectively, and that's good enough for me to go with my gut on both of them.
In terms of value plays, SHAGAF is listed at 33-1 or even 40-1 in some places, so I would throw down some dollars on that at post time. The other two that intrigue me at current prices are SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS and MY MAN SAM -- both are in the 20-1 to 25-1 neighborhood, and if that lasts (kind of guessing it won't, particularly with MY MAN SAM seeming to be a sort of "wise guy" horse), they would be worth a few ducats, as well.
I've made some more detailed exotics suggestions in past iterations of this preview, but I'm not sure I can here. With all the solid closers and so much depending on trip, finding the horses to round out the bottom of trifectas and superfectas feels like even more of a stab than usual.
As a super/tri/even exacta box, however, I would probably have to go with the four I outlined above in addition to EXAGGERATOR -- I just wouldn't feel very good leaving him out knowing what he might be capable of based on the figures he's run. So let's go with MOHAYMEN-CREATOR-MOR SPIRIT-MY MAN SAM-EXAGGERATOR for my exotics boxes.
Parting thoughts
If you're still with me after all of that, two things: 1. Thank you. 2. What's wrong with you?
I wanted to touch one final time on NYQUIST. Last year, I played against AMERICAN PHAROAH, but I allowed for the fact that he may just be an otherworldy talent. Of course, he was, and I cheered vigorously for minutes when he won the Triple Crown. In the case of NYQUIST, I wouldn't even bet him in the Kentucky Derby at double his off odds. That is not hyperbole. I simply do not think he will get the distance unless they absolutely crawl early.
With so many horses of seemingly equal talent, I do think the true longshots will take more action than they really should -- TOM'S READY, TROJAN NATION and OSCAR NOMINATED will take money, so I feel like those are the only "bad" bets in this year's running (of course they are all bad bets when takeout is 17 percent, but alas ... ).
After all of the above, it feels silly to say, but this is the year to ask your daughter or grandson to pick their favorite saddle cloth colors, or to ask your friend who knows about horse racing to pick four numbers between one and 20. Have some fun with it.
At the end of the day, the Kentucky Derby is not the best race that will be run in North America this year ... but if it's not the most fun, you're doing it wrong.
GOOD LUCK!
It is simply the most fun.
While this is likely common knowledge to some of the readers who happen upon this preview, it's important enough to bear repeating to even the most seasoned handicapper -- the Kentucky Derby is a race for 3-year-old horses only, which means that the majority of them have only been racing for about eight months at this point (some have been a bit longer, but at most a year).
This is important because picking the Kentucky Derby winner is generally less about what a horse has done already and more about what each horse might be capable of doing. In terms that a general sports fan might better understand, picking the Kentucky Derby winner is kind of like deciding which player to take in the NBA draft -- that 7-footer from Europe who just started playing basketball two years ago might just be better in the long-term than the 6-foot 7-inch center who just won the NCAA title.
Of course, that goes both ways: That 7-footer from Europe with all the upside may just not be any good in the end. And so it is with the 20 horses who will stand in the starting gate this Saturday -- on one hand, it is the ultimate test of handicapping skill, and on the other it is the ultimate crapshoot. But if you like handicapping and crapshoots (as I most certainly do!), then there's absolutely nothing better than trying to decode the Kentucky Derby.
This year's Kentucky Derby is particularly difficult. Last year, there was AMERICAN PHAROAH at 5/2 and then DORTMUND at 4-1; CARPE DIEM was 7-1 and FIRING LINE was 9-1, and three of those horses ran in the top three. It was a very "true to form" race, and, frankly, a pretty boring race -- the top three finishers were the top three in some order the entire way around the track.
The 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby looks somewhat similar in that there may not be a great deal of perceived pace -- which typically favors frontrunners -- but on the other hand is entirely different because the predicted frontrunner (DANZING CANDY) is 25-1 and the second choice at around 7-1 in offshore markets (EXAGGERATOR) has recently shown his best form as a deep closer.
All of which is to say is that I don't believe we can draw too many conclusions from recent runnings of the Kentucky Derby -- the level of parity in this field is unmeasured in my decade-long history as a true racing fan, and so I think frankly there's more "gut" and "upside prediction" going on in this year's edition than ever before. This is the eighth time that I've put together a formal preview, and in looking back over the years, it just doesn't compare at all. There were very clear tosses in the past ... like the eventual 50-1 winner in 2009, MINE THAT BIRD. Here's what I wrote about him in my first official Kentucky Derby preview:
- Mine That Bird (+8550): 4th in Sunland, 2nd in Borderland, 12th in Breeders' Cup Juvenile, 1st in Grey S.: Very lightly raced as of late and the body of work that is there does nothing to prove that he's capable of competing with the top horses in this race. The Sunland's winner had a Beyer of 87 ... and MTB was fourth. Not good.
So, you know, when MINE THAT BIRD stormed up the rail to win in jaw-dropping fashion, it proved that absolutely anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby. And the other positive was that there was nowhere to go but up for this preview. To keep myself somewhat honest, I compiled the record of my top two picks in the Kentucky Derby over the past seven years:
- 2009: PAPA CLEM -- 4th at odds of 12-1; CHOCOLATE CANDY -- 5th at 10-1
- 2010: NOBLE'S PROMISE -- 5th at odds of 24-1; JACKSON BEND -- 12th at 23-1
- 2011: SOLDAT -- 11th at odds of 11-1; ANIMAL KINGDOM -- 1st! at 20-1
- 2012: HANSEN -- 9th at odds of 13-1; CREATIVE CAUSE -- 5th at 11-1
- 2013: PALACE MALICE -- 12th at odds of 23-1; VERRAZANO: 15th at 8-1
- 2014: INTENSE HOLIDAY -- 12th at odds of 14-1; MEDAL COUNT: 8th at 26-1
- 2015: FROSTED -- 4th at odds of 10-1; UPSTART: 18th at 15-1
In other words, the year that I did the best overall was the year that I knew the least about horse racing (2009). Overall, I am a lifetime loser on the Kentucky Derby -- while the charitable version of the above would be that you would be $70 ahead if you bet $10 on each of my top two picks over the past seven years thanks to the 20-1 win from ANIMAL KINGDOM, the reality is that I've bet too much on both my top pick and other exotics wagers to be profitable.
If I'm losing you at this point, let me just point out that my track record in the major prep races this year has been kind of fantastic (did I mention that I'm kind of a big deal?). Here's how the 50 and 100 point races played out, with the races I actually bet correctly in bold (if you're not familiar with the concept of points, check this out: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/how-does-it-work):
- Risen Star: GUN RUNNER
- Fountain of Youth: MOHAYMEN (2-5)
- Gotham: SHAGAF
- Tampa Bay: DESTIN
- San Felipe: DANZING CANDY
- Rebel: CUPID (5-2)
- UAE Derby: LANI (6-1)
- Louisiana Derby: GUN RUNNER
- Spiral: OSCAR NOMINATED (23-1)
- Florida Derby: NYQUIST
- Wood Memorial: OUTWORK
- Blue Grass: BRODY'S CAUSE (4-1)
- Santa Anita Derby: EXAGGERATOR (3-1)
- Arkansas Derby: CREATOR (11-1)
I share that for a few reasons. For one, even the best horseplayers lose more than they win (unless they're bridge jumping and rebate whoring, which is a topic for another time), so there's a need to celebrate successes when you can. And secondly, it's to prove to the few people that are still reading this after this significant preamble that I would like to think I have a reasonably good grasp on this crop of horses.
With all of that said, what I've done below is separate the horses into a variety of tiers according to how likely I feel they are to win the race. What this means is that -- spoiler alert -- even though I absolutely won't bet NYQUIST to win at the low odds he's expected to leave the starting gate at, he is still much more likely to win the race than many of the other horses in the race. This also means that I might consider some of the horses on the lower end of the scale in exotics, but I'll point that out as I go along and circle back at the end to wrap things up.
Here goes ... if by chance I wasn't kind to your previously chosen horse, don't let me talk you off of them:
The "SHOOT ME DEAD IF THIS HORSE WINS" tier:
20. TOM'S READY (post position #12, 30-1 morning line): He was second in the Louisiana Derby at odds of 30-1, and a well-beaten four lengths to boot. While that alone leaves me inclined to believe he is kind of a default inclusion, he did run a speed figure of 99 there, and Dallas Stewart has a history of running well with longshots (see GOLDEN SOUL and COMMANDING CURVE). He has run reasonably well at Churchill Downs, with a win and a second from three starts. I don't think that much of him to recommend a play, but who knows with these connections. Could he run on late for another in-the-money finish? Sure. But could he win? Well, unless his April 29th workmate was a Derby contender himself (note: he's not), TOM'S READY is in trouble -- he couldn't separate from that one at all coming through the lane. I just can't imagine a scenario in which he wins.
The "MINE THAT BIRD-STYLE SHOCKER" Tier:
19. TROJAN NATION (post position #1, 50-1 morning line): Based on pedigree alone, the fact that this one went off at 81-1 in the Wood was crazy. The pedigree itself is darn good, and he's been working well out of the Wood Memorial. On the other hand, he is still winless in six starts, and while he did run pretty big in the Wood, he got the dream rail trip and still couldn't run down OUTWORK, who had put in a pace at the second call that BRIS called +29, or 14.5 lengths faster than would be expected given the time and the way the track was playing (I question this particular pace assessment quite a bit, but alas, it can't be discounted entirely). There's enough here for me to be halfway intrigued, but there are so many horses that have shown better form already. And winning out of the one hole would be absolutely insane. I would probably pass out.
18. DANZING CANDY (post position #20, 15-1 morning line): This is a horrible morning line, by the way. It pains me to put him down here because I love his sire (TWIRLING CANDY -- if I had $15,000 and a mare to send to any sire, I would plop down the money immediately and ship her off to Lane's End in Versailles). But his damside sire is SONGANDAPRAYER, who was just a crack sprinter and set the fastest fractions in the history of the Kentucky Derby. That kind of pedigree can stretch you to 1 1/16 miles as it did in the San Felipe, but once you get to nine and ten furlongs, it becomes a problem. His Santa Anita Derby half-mile fraction was insane at :45 1/5, but frankly he got a fairly nice break getting to six furlongs in 1:10 flat, and he should have loved the mud based on the pedigree. But he folded up shop on the turn and ended up 13 lengths back of EXAGGERATOR, and I just see no way he gets 10 furlongs on the lead. Even if he somehow gets away with dawdling fractions due to no other truly crazy pace horse, I still can't see him seeing out 10 furlongs. Post position #20 more or less confirms he has to go all-out to the lead; otherwise he could be hung wide, so to me that is kind of that -- his dash to the lead could cause some issues for the horses behind him on the inside. No matter what happens early, someone will run him down late.
17. OSCAR NOMINATED (post position #7, 50-1 morning line): On the plus side, he would seem able to run forever, and turf pedigrees do typically perform better than you'd think on the dirt at Churchill. On the other hand, there's everything else -- that he's run slow figures, that he's never run on dirt, period, and so on. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of him running on toward the end by any means -- ANIMAL KINGDOM won the Derby coming out of the Spiral, mind you -- but he might be a less likely winner than MINE THAT BIRD was. His April 29th work really illustrated his turfy stride, too; he kind of skips along and doesn't stride out as much as I would like to see on the dirt, especially since he's never run on it before, and he's never particularly fast on turf or artificial surfaces, either.
16. WHITMORE (post position #10, 20-1 morning line): This horse has had some seemingly bad and wide trips, but these came in races with fast paces, so was being wide necessarily that bad to avoid any traffic in these races? His pedigree looks good so there are no issues there, and he gets Victor Espinoza aboard. Can that menacing mid-race move be strong enough to get him home in the Derby? I thought he was a winner in both the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby at the quarter pole, but in both cases he could not get the job done down the lane and ended up second and third, respectively. Both CREATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS ran by him in the Arkansas Derby, and there was really no excuse to my eye -- so I can't really figure out how he could turn the tables on them in Louisville. I wouldn't discount him for exotics, but I just really don't see him winning.
The "Sorta-possibly-maybe-intriguing" Tier:
15. LANI (post position #8, 30-1 morning line): To be honest, this horse probably belongs in the "shocker" tier, but the pedigree is really cool with TAPIT as the sire and a SUNDAY SILENCE mare. He should love the distance and it would seem that based on his training consisting of running around the track four or five times every other day that he'll be in great shape, perhaps better than any other horse. And if every other horse is suspect in terms of distance breeding, maybe he'll see out the 10 furlongs better than any of them? His UAE Derby win was pretty uninspiring visually as he looked dead in the water on numerous occasions, once after making a big mid-race move from last to second, but then getting passed by a few others coming out of the turn and seemingly spinning his wheels ... but then finding a sort of extra gear (almost like MOR SPIRIT moves late in races), or maybe the other horses just stopped, but finding enough to get up for the win. And the time of the UAE Derby was just as uninspiring as the visual, but you can never really know what to make of the times from that track. My overall feeling is that when you watch enough horse racing, you get a pretty good idea of how horses move during a race that will tell you whether they're really moving well or whether others are simply not, and I think the UAE Derby that stamped his ticket to America was more of the latter than the former. But hey, if, as his connections say, he wants to run on Saturday (the running joke is that some days he simply doesn't want to run), then maybe he'll show us something he hasn't before.
14. MAJESTO (post position #18, 30-1 morning line): The lights went on for this one prior to his start in the Florida Derby, when he finally broke his maiden in his fifth start. He's bred for distance and I liked him as a potential value play in the Florida Derby, but I was actually disappointed in his run there -- yes, he finished second, beaten only three lengths, but he actually lost ground in the stretch despite getting the quintessential dream trip from Castellano. Javier now gets off to ride DESTIN here, so that's a decent-sized loss. There has been some talk of his "huge" gallop out in the Florida Derby when he ran past NYQUIST past the wire, but given that he made up no ground through the stretch whatsoever, that's irrelevant to me. He also hasn't had a break since Dec. 12, and when you consider that MOHAYMEN just didn't show up at all, who did he really beat in the Florida Derby? The positive for this horse, however, would be that he's never really gotten that truly *hot* pace to close into, so what might he be capable of when he gets it? His April 29th work just looked slow and green. He sure doesn't make moving look easy. I like the pedigree and the "what if?" notion of a hotter pace for him enough to place him here, but realistically I have a hard time envisioning it.
The "Absolute Question Marks That Make Me Uncomfortable" Tier:
13. OUTWORK (post position #15, 15-1 morning line): And we have now reached the point of the preview where I really don't feel all that comfortable placing certain horses. He has only run four times so there may be more than meets the eye here, but he won the slowest Wood Memorial in a long, long time, barely staggering home over a 41-1 shot. With that said, he threw down early there within a head of the lead, laying down a :46 4/5 half, so he may have proverbially ran most of the field off of its feet. Another positive sign I'm seeing is that there doesn't seem to be a lot of pace in this race, so it seems within the realm of possibility that he could get an uncontested lead and take them all on a merry chase around the track. On the other hand, NYQUIST is one of the few that figures to be up there with him, so it's not as if there's some "cheap" speed he has to contend with -- he'll have to fight off the Derby favorite and then go on with it. And of course the extremely speedy DANZING CANDY is to his outside, and he's wide enough himself in post 15, so while there are not a *lot* of pace horses, the pace horses that are here are tough. Pedigree wise we have UNCLE MO popping up again as the sire, out of an EMPIRE MAKER dam. If UNCLE MO is going to get the job done as a Derby sire, based on pedigree alone this is the one. He is eligible to move forward in his fifth lifetime start after pairing speed figures in his past two, but those were figures of 96 -- he'll have to move up a solid amount to be a true win threat here. I had mixed feelings on his April 29 work. He had sort of an awkward head carriage for much of the stretch, but then when he leveled out late he was really striding out nicely. At the end of the day, the negatives of UNCLE MO and beating poor competition with poor speed figures are enough for me to take a stand against him.
12. MO TOM (post position #4, 20-1 morning line): I was initially very excited that he made the gate with the defection of CUPID. Check the comment lines in his last three races: "Checked badly." "Checked sharply." "Hit gate;bmped early." He actually won the last race listed there, the Grade 3 LeComte, back in January. He was second in the Risen Star, and then most recently when he was "checked badly," he was fourth in the Louisiana Derby. In the Risen Star, I think he likely would have won, and in the Louisiana Derby, I think he would have at least run second. Some horses find trouble on their own because they lack the spurt to go through holes, but with MO TOM, this looked like pure jockey error, particularly in the Louisiana Derby. A message board comment -- which I don't feel great about stealing, but alas -- said it looked like he was going 55 in a 30 MPH zone; there was just nowhere to go. If he gets a clear run, who knows what he could do. He also worked a near bullet in :47 flat on April 20, so you know he has plenty of pure speed to sit a bit closer if they ask him to. The pedigree is once again UNCLE MO, so that's most of the reason he's down here -- at some point with these horses, you have to start taking a stand on something, and I just don't think UNCLE MO's offspring are classic-bred horses. I'm sure they'll get a classic at some point because they're so talented and will find the right pace scenario, but in this race, I'm playing against the UNCLE MO line. I also didn't think much of MO TOM's April 29th work; he didn't look very comfortable and his action just looked somewhat stilted. And despite my belief that it wasn't really "his fault" but rather the jockey's, some horses just seem to find trouble -- was it of his own doing?
11. DESTIN (post position #9, 15-1 morning line): I initially felt kind of horrible about this one in particular. He appears to have the tactical speed to lay where it makes sense and then enough kick to distance his competition. He had to dig fairly deep to hold off OUTWORK in the Tampa Bay Derby, and what's most concerning is that he's entering the Derby off of that race, which makes it an eight-week layoff. Steve Haskin at Bloodhorse has reported that Pletcher and his team are doing this due to a huge jump in his Thoro-Graph number, which often results in a "bounce" (regression) in the next race. The BRIS figure was a fairly pedestrian 97 and the TimeForm was only slightly better than his Sam Davis win, so I sort of feel like Thoro-Graph may just be out to lunch on this one. The pedigree is ho hum -- looks great on one side, not so much on the other. On the other hand, is running style appears to be preferred in this Derby, and he's got the best jockey in the game, Javier Castellano, on his back. What finally got me off of this horse was that his last work on 4/29 was not impressive -- his workmate had to be restrained pretty heavily to let DESTIN go by, and he was fighting back on him all the way down the stretch.
10. SHAGAF (post position #16, 20-1 morning line): While I'm placing him here in terms of likelihood to win, in terms of value betting, I think he might be at or near the top come Derby Day. He was undefeated before having one bad race. This horse was the 9/5 favorite in the Wood Memorial and moved up like a monster around the turn ... only to simply not go on. It was a head scratcher. If he had won that race, what would he be in the Derby? An undefeated Wood Memorial winner trained by Chad Brown? 5-1? Instead he might be 30-1, and if so, yes please! The pedigree is fantastic, so you have to wonder if he just really didn't like the mud and got sick of it flying into his face when the real running started. Maybe he's just not that good, but do we really know that? Again, much like MOHAYMEN, he was further back than he had ever been previously, so that also probably had an impact. The most negative move in my mind is that Irad Ortiz, who has ridden SHAGAF in all four of his races to date, is actually getting off to ride fellow contender MY MAN SAM. That to me says that Irad and/or trainer Chad Brown believe MY MAN SAM is more likely to win the Derby, because Irad has previously sat on both of these horse's backs. But on the other hand, this kind of move in a race like this for the same trainer could mean a lot of things -- they both may feel that he gets along with MY MAN SAM better, who knows. And boy, SHAGAF just looks extremely good moving over the Churchill strip. His April 29th work was absolutely powerful -- he looks more mature than a lot of these other horses.
The "Right Trip, Right Pace" Tier:
9. BRODY'S CAUSE (post position #19, 12-1 morning line): The whole lot of these horses are fairly interchangeable, because it truly does seem to come down to who gets the right trip, and if any of them will get enough pace in front of them to flatter their late kicks. In the case of BRODY'S CAUSE, His Tampa Bay Derby non-effort notwithstanding, he checks the pedigree and visual boxes. But is he fast enough? That's the real question here. I think he'll run for days and his closing kick has looked impressive, but let's temper the enthusiasm by pointing out that the top three finishers in the Blue Grass were 11th-13th after a half mile in 46.75. BRODY'S CAUSE had the tactical speed and trip to split horses without going more than four wide exiting the turn, while CHERRY WINE had to wait to swing out even wider, and MY MAN SAM was something like eight- or nine-wide for half of the turn. So, the question is whether to call that sort of trip luck vs. his having the tactical ability to hit the right holes, which is absolutely crucial in a 20-horse field. I think it's some of both, and you also have to consider that he broke his maiden at Churchill, closing into a slow pace while going a mile. And there's also the fact that he may be best on turf despite only running on it once to date (in his debut) ... and Churchill is notoriously favorable for turf horses. There's a lot to like here, but can he move up enough in his third off the layoff? And can he work out a ground-saving trip from post No. 19 without essentially falling back to last?
8. SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (post position #2, 20-1 morning line): Here's another one of the closers who could win if they get the pace and the trip. Out of MINESHAFT and an AFLEET ALEX mare, the pedigree fits. And it's hard to blame him for not winning some of his recent tries given the ridiculous five- and six-wide runs he was forced to make. He might just wait until a little bit too late in the game to get rolling; the Derby is rarely won "from the clouds," but he's a definite exotics player. I was ready to rank him lower at one point, but the more I thought about it, given his wide run in the Arkansas Derby, if I like CREATOR -- and I most certainly do -- I have to give this one some more credit. His April 29 work also looked great to move him up in my mind. He showed some very smooth action and galloped out very nicely. Post position No. 2 is not really a positive thing by any means, but he could save ground without having to use too much energy early if he decides to drop back enough, and that could be exactly the right play if the pace is hot enough up front.
7. MY MAN SAM (post position #6, 20-1 morning line): I feel pretty confident in saying he was *much* the best in the Blue Grass, and I blame his jockey Julien Leparoux for a classic terrible Leparoux ride. Figure-wise, he may have bounced off of a relatively huge effort in an optional claimer on March 6, nearly running down a loose MATT KING COAL on a speed-favoring track ... or maybe it was purely that eight-wide run and all of his ground loss. He gets Irad Ortiz back aboard for the Derby, so that's great and meaningful if it was a situation where Irad truly chose MY MAN SAM as better than SHAGAF. TRAPPE SHOT doesn't have a great average winning distance from his progeny at this point, but it's early enough in his sire career, and of course he's out of TAPIT, so there's enough in the family tree. ARCH as the maternal grandsire is very nice. On the negative side, one thing I always like to look for is a horse doing something he's "not supposed to do." So, for instance, a horse that ran a :46 flat half-mile and still held on to win a race going 1 1/8 miles would be something out of the ordinary and a sign that the horse might truly be special. Or a horse rallying to win from 12 lengths back into a pace that went a half in :49 flat. In the case of MY MAN SAM, he has seen faster than normal paces in his past three starts, yet has won only one of them. That's a cause for concern, but since he's only made four starts to date, there could be plenty more in the tank.
The "Maybe Great, But ..." Tier:
6. GUN RUNNER (post position #5, 10-1 morning line): This horse reminds me of I'LL HAVE ANOTHER a little bit, which of course is high praise given that he was just one race away from winning the Triple Crown before being retired with an injury. His times haven't been great, and he hasn't been particularly flashy with any big moves ... but he has great positional speed and has been good enough to just keep winning, as he is now (somewhat quietly) 4-for-4 on fast tracks. You'll see plenty of talk about how this crop has slower speed figures than previous years, but the BRIS speed figure for GUN RUNNER in his Louisiana Derby win was 104, whereas AMERICAN PHAROAH's best speed figure pre-Derby last year was 103 in the Del Mar Futurity in September of his 2-year-old season. On the other hand, he came home in 13 seconds -- which is nothing to write home about, but not terrible -- after running the 3/4 to 1 mile mark in about 25 seconds ... so how slow will that final extra furlong in the Derby be when the closers are coming from behind? Yet, visually speaking, he looks like he quickens really nicely and drives away from the field. By CANDY RIDE out of a GIANT'S CAUSEWAY mare, he should have no problem stretching out to 10 furlongs, but I can't get past the idea that MO TOM would have blown by him in at least one of those races if he hadn't encountered traffic trouble, and that GUN RUNNER hasn't truly beaten any other quality horses. If he beats me on Saturday I'll be kind of happy because I do like him as a good, honest horse ... but it doesn't seem like he'll be good enough here.
5. NYQUIST (post position #13, 3-1 morning line): Yes, I truly believe that this undefeated horse belongs here. He has run seven times and won them all, and in many ways, his actual body of work is more impressive than AMERICAN PHAROAH's at this time last year. While his speed figures have not been great -- and this is probably the major source of negativity surrounding him -- he has run against and summarily dispatched the other best horses we've seen so far multiple times. The other worry is 10 furlongs, and I subscribe to that more than the speed figures (because just having slow figures doesn't mean the other horses who have been running slower than him are more likely to jump up and get to him than if they were running fast figures). My read of the pedigree is that there are some distance concerns, and the way he bore out in the stretch of the Florida Derby is usually a sign of a tired horse. Granted, he was pushed pretty hard early and wasn't losing ground to anyone behind him, but that can have any number of factors, and bearing out is bearing out -- it may not be that bad of a thing in the grand scheme, but it's never a good sign. UNCLE MO is still somewhat of a question mark in terms of his offspring truly stretching out to a classic distance, but the grandsires of NYQUIST tell me all I need to know: INDIAN CHARLIE and FORESTRY simply are not distance-type horses. They can win at 1 1/16 without any issues, and INDIAN CHARLIE ran well in his Derby try but gave out in that last furlong. When you think about running against essentially nobody in the Florida Derby (MOHAYMEN just didn't show up for whatever reason, and who else did he beat?), 1 1/8 even seems in scope. Against 19 other individuals, almost all of them better bred for this distance, I think he's a definite underlay as the favorite. Last year, people had plenty of doubts about AMERICAN PHAROAH even though he was out of PIONEEROFTHENILE, who of course in turn was a son of Belmont winner EMPIRE MAKER. That's because his dam's sire was YANKEE GENTLEMAN, whose offspring had an average winning distance of just 6.3 furlongs. But that pedigree looked pretty good distance-wise compared to NYQUIST. NYQUIST's win going 7 furlongs in the San Vicente was monstrous, but that was 7 furlongs. This is 10. This is the Kentucky Derby. His April 29 workout was impressive in the way he put away Grade 1 winner RALIS, but they were both very keen early, and NYQUIST gawked at the stands through the stretch and switched leads late. Did he get tired working out going a mile or is he just a goofball as O'Neill claims? Your call, but at 3-1 or thereabouts, there are better places for your money. Having MOHAYMEN immediately to his outside and OUTWORK just outside of that is bad news, too; either way, he could end up swallowed up and between and behind horses early, which is something he has not done successfully yet (he was wide in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, which is the only race he was really off the pace).
4. MOR SPIRIT (post position #17, 12-1 morning line): This is one boring horse, man. I've generally hated the way he's looked in the mornings -- his workouts have been fast early and slow late, and Baffert has been putting larger blinkers on him. That could be a good thing, of course, if he can sit just off the pace and it's not too hot with no real pressure on DANZING CANDY. In general, MOR SPIRIT just lopes around the track even to mid-stretch before finally hitting some sort of weird extra gear in the last 100 yards of the race. EXAGGERATOR ran by him like he was standing still in the Santa Anita Derby, and while he got the better of that one in the San Felipe, he was never a threat to the winner. The Robert B. Lewis was definitely his most impressive race, but even there the leaders got away from him a bit at the top of the stretch before he gradually (and I want to put the word "gradually" in something indicating how almost ... lazy ... it looked) reeled in the leaders and only put some distance between himself and them in the final 100 yards. The way he runs, you would indeed expect him to just lope along for days, but some will say the pedigree is suspect with DIXIE UNION on the dam side. But UNION RAGS won the Belmont four years ago and put that to rest a bit for me. I guess what I'm saying is that I don't like the way he runs and I'm not sure I like the way he's looked, but I can't totally knock his results or his pedigree and potential, either. He has been favored in each and every start to date. So, I don't really like him, but I don't really not like him, either, and the feeling is that Baffert will have him as ready as he can be. 12-1 would be nice.
3. EXAGGERATOR (post position #11, 8-1 morning line): Based on most objective measures, I would say that EXAGGERATOR should probably be the favorite. If his Santa Anita Derby win was run in that time and fashion on a fast track, I would imagine that he would be a real challenger to NYQUIST for Derby favoritism. But given that he has now claimed his most two impressive wins on off tracks, is he just a mudder? That's the real question to be answered at this point. From a speed figure perspective, though, he has run four straight triple-digit BRIS figures without any big jumps or drops at one time (despite two on slop and two on fast tracks), so in theory he's eligible to run an even bigger one here with such a strong base to build on. The damside pedigree is perhaps not as strong as it could be in terms of 10 furlongs, but I don't see it as an impediment -- just not a strength -- and CURLIN of course has already sired plenty of stakes winners going long (PALICE MALICE comes to mind as a Belmont winner a few years back). The worry is both the mud and the fact that NYQUIST has beaten him three times already, and none of those necessarily gave the impression that more distance would matter; remember, prior to the Santa Anita Derby, there were a lot of questions about whether he would be better suited as a one-run closer at a mile. There's something that doesn't feel totally right about playing him here.
The "Gut Play" Tier:
2. CREATOR (post position #3, 10-1 morning line): I always watch Derby workouts with great interest, but I would be lying if I said I felt I have a great eye for them. With that said, I have been watching them for years, and I don't recall being as taken by a horse as I have with the way CREATOR has looked in the mornings. The way he was striding out at the end of his April 25 workout was glorious. They didn't let him stretch quite as much at the end of his May 2 workout, but he still looked great and made a :50 workout look like it was a gallop. He just looks outstanding -- and I can't say that enough -- he has that long and lean look that surely comes from his mother, a Peruvian mare out of PRIVATELY HELD. It took CREATOR six starts -- four of them second-place finishes -- to break his maiden, but once he did, he stamped himself as a contender with a strong third-place run in the Rebel, and then took another step forward by winning the Arkansas Derby. There are some out there who question sons of TAPIT at 10 furlongs, and I do understand that to some extent, but the damside is chock full of stamina, and I would expect him to have no problem with the extra ground. Like many of the others in this field, he has proven himself when he has a good pace to close into; but will he get enough? He also did get the perfect trip in the Arkansas Derby, much like BRODY'S CAUSE in the Blue Grass. But what I really liked about CREATOR's Arkansas Derby run is that he somewhat *made* his own perfect trip. He bulled his way out coming into the stretch, bumping with WHITMORE and eagerly going past that one and on to the win. With 19 other horses to work through in the Derby, there will be some bumping, and knowing a horse has the constitution to take that and thrive after it is important. I have no attitude questions and no distance questions, and he looks fantastic, so this is definitely where the "gut" comes in to play -- CREATOR will be one of my main plays.
The "Forgotten Favorite" Tier:
1. MOHAYMEN (post position #14, 10-1 morning line): It's interesting what one bad race can do to the way people see a horse. MOHAYMEN was a fairly clear 7/2 choice in pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby future pool on March 13. But after his complete no-show fourth-place finish in the Florida Derby at odds of 4/5, he's now available at 7-1. The distance is a bit more of a question, maybe -- he's by TAPIT, just like CREATOR, but without the Peruvian mare (actually a DIXIE UNION mare again here) -- but much less so than with NYQUIST. Beyond that, what if all the Florida Derby really showed that he simply doesn't like off tracks? The way he won the Fountain of Youth and Holy Bull was so impressive that it's hard to forget. Let's also remember that the Florida Derby was a true prep race for MOHAYMEN whereas NYQUIST was running for a $1 million bonus if he won (since he was a Fasig-Tipton sale graduate). So NYQUIST was running in the Florida Derby for $1.6 million whereas MOHAYMEN was running for $600,000. With $1.24 million going to the winner of the Kentucky Derby and 19 other horses to compete against, which race would you point to as the connections of NYQUIST, and which race would you point to as the connections of MOHAYMEN? I think it is very likely that MOHAYMEN was at 80 percent in that race by design, and he'll be primed to give his best effort this Saturday. He worked a half-mile in a bullet :46 4/5 on April 20, and his April 29 work was equally full of energy. That's probably the biggest negative at this point -- is he looking *too* keyed up? Will he be sent to the lead or near it to avoid a wide trip and any traffic like he's seen in his previous races? The other question to answer is if he, too, has really beaten any horse of note: FELLOWSHIP was the only potential Derby horse, and he didn't make the gate after all. But here again, I'm going on gut and what I see -- if you go back and watch his races again, you get an appreciation for how handy he is -- he hasn't had necessarily pretty trips and he's been a bit back in the pack early on, but then he just shoots through gaps and goes on with it without being bothered. I think the energy he's showing is just a sign that he's ready to go and he will be one half of the TAPIT exacta on Derby day.
The Race Shape
So with each individual horse now discussed, we come to the part of the preview where I'll outline how I see the race playing out:
I expect DANZING CANDY to be winging it on the lead, especially from post 20, with OUTWORK prompting the pace and MOHAYMEN and NYQUIST not far behind. In fact, OUTWORK may need to just go rather than let DANZING CANDY cross in front of him, and NYQUIST may be sent, as well.
DESTIN, GUN RUNNER and SHAGAF figure to sit pretty nice trips in behind the early leaders.
OSCAR NOMINATED, MAJESTO, WHITMORE, LANI and MOR SPIRIT are likely the very much mid-pack tier, probably ahead of the *eight* closers that appear to be entirely devoid of early speed: CREATOR, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, TOM'S READY, MO TOM, BRODY'S CAUSE, MY MAN SAM, EXAGGERATOR and TROJAN NATION.
In past years, I've generally structured by approach to this race very much upon pace -- if I thought it would be fast, I would take the closers. If I thought it would be slow, I would try to take horses closer to it. But I've come to the conclusion that predicting pace is as hard as predicting the winner! So, in a race like this where there's an actually reasonable balance of speed and late-runners, I don't think you can put too much credence into any predicted pace. Gun to my head, I do think being closer to the pace is preferable, but there are closers that I think are good enough to get the job done unless they REALLY crawl, and I don't see that happening as there's enough pace signed on.
With that said, I'll call for splits of :23 2/5 and :47 1/5, and for DANZING CANDY and OUTWORK to start packing it in as they hit the far turn. NYQUIST will go on with it and we'll briefly think he might be a super horse, and then MOHAYMEN will be gearing up on his outside and we'll see those two hook up as they come into the stretch.
GUN RUNNER, SHAGAF and DESTIN will be in behind them, and will all be in a position to strike, but I'm not sure I really see any of them kicking on. MOR SPIRIT will continue to grind and start picking up pieces as the horses in front of him start to slip, but as he's passing horses, all of the closers will be winding up and it's just a question of who can get through.
As mentioned above, I think CREATOR will make his own trip and be closer than some of the other closers, so ideally he won't have quite as much traffic to sift through. He'll swing three-wide coming into the stretch to get a clear run down the lane and be striding out like a freight train as MOHAYMEN and NYQUIST continue their battle.
MOHAYMEN will start edging clear mid-stretch as NYQUIST starts to bear out. CREATOR will dive to the inside and it will be MOHAYMEN and CREATOR coming to the wire together. In behind them MOR SPIRIT will finally find his best stride with a furlong to go and start moving forward, and in a flash on the far outside, MY MAN SAM will be absolutely flying late.
As they hit the wire, it's MOHAYMEN digging deep and holding off CREATOR by a head. MOR SPIRIT will hold off MY MAN SAM by a similar margin as both cross the wire three lengths back of the winners. NYQUIST will stagger home in fifth, and from there, who knows.
Wagering Strategy
Knowing how I feel about the way the race plays out, it's obvious that CREATOR and MOHAYMEN will be my main win bets. At current offshore odds, they are 14-1 and 8-1, respectively, and that's good enough for me to go with my gut on both of them.
In terms of value plays, SHAGAF is listed at 33-1 or even 40-1 in some places, so I would throw down some dollars on that at post time. The other two that intrigue me at current prices are SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS and MY MAN SAM -- both are in the 20-1 to 25-1 neighborhood, and if that lasts (kind of guessing it won't, particularly with MY MAN SAM seeming to be a sort of "wise guy" horse), they would be worth a few ducats, as well.
I've made some more detailed exotics suggestions in past iterations of this preview, but I'm not sure I can here. With all the solid closers and so much depending on trip, finding the horses to round out the bottom of trifectas and superfectas feels like even more of a stab than usual.
As a super/tri/even exacta box, however, I would probably have to go with the four I outlined above in addition to EXAGGERATOR -- I just wouldn't feel very good leaving him out knowing what he might be capable of based on the figures he's run. So let's go with MOHAYMEN-CREATOR-MOR SPIRIT-MY MAN SAM-EXAGGERATOR for my exotics boxes.
Parting thoughts
If you're still with me after all of that, two things: 1. Thank you. 2. What's wrong with you?
I wanted to touch one final time on NYQUIST. Last year, I played against AMERICAN PHAROAH, but I allowed for the fact that he may just be an otherworldy talent. Of course, he was, and I cheered vigorously for minutes when he won the Triple Crown. In the case of NYQUIST, I wouldn't even bet him in the Kentucky Derby at double his off odds. That is not hyperbole. I simply do not think he will get the distance unless they absolutely crawl early.
With so many horses of seemingly equal talent, I do think the true longshots will take more action than they really should -- TOM'S READY, TROJAN NATION and OSCAR NOMINATED will take money, so I feel like those are the only "bad" bets in this year's running (of course they are all bad bets when takeout is 17 percent, but alas ... ).
After all of the above, it feels silly to say, but this is the year to ask your daughter or grandson to pick their favorite saddle cloth colors, or to ask your friend who knows about horse racing to pick four numbers between one and 20. Have some fun with it.
At the end of the day, the Kentucky Derby is not the best race that will be run in North America this year ... but if it's not the most fun, you're doing it wrong.
GOOD LUCK!