The 2016 travers stakes card
Purists often lament the state of horse racing in 2016, and one of the more frequent complaints I see is that the New York Racing Association has gutted most of its weekend cards at the expense of a few.
They're not entirely wrong, to be fair. Rather than spreading the six Grade 1 races that will be run consecutively tomorrow across five or six other weekend cards, NYRA has put them together in one Pick 6 sequence.
So, sure -- the sport might have lost something along the way in terms of traditions for a day that was previously headlined by one of these races.
But, seriously. We're talking about six back-to-back Grade 1 races.
THE HORROR.
There's no doubt that this is one of the top four days of horse racing in 2016 along with Kentucky Derby Day, Belmont Stakes Day, and Breeders' Cup Saturday. I'm not even sure what order I would put all of those in, but as I handicapped the Travers card for tomorrow, I was starting to think it would be hard for even the Breeders' Cup slate to top these races. There are no 2-year-old races on this slate, for instance. Two-year-old races are certainly fun and it's exciting to watch the potential stars of tomorrow, but from a pure quality standpoint, Travers Day may have Breeders' Cup Saturday beat. It's going to be a great day.
The forecast calls for a high of 85 and a 10% chance of rain (sorry EXAGGERATOR). Here are my thoughts on all of the graded races on the Travers Day card, starting with the Travers itself:
Race 11 -- The Grade 1 Travers: A 13-horse field (MAJESTO is expected to scratch) for the Travers is just fantastic. Sure, we're missing NYQUIST, but my hat is off to the connections of all these horses for not being scared off my EXAGGERATOR. It's a $1.25 million race -- everyone with an able body that might relatively fit should take a shot!
With that said, it's an incredibly difficult race to handicap. I'll try to parse this horse by horse:
1) ARROGATE: May well be the best 3-year-old out there when all is said and done, but he'll have to win without the benefit of a slow pace before I bet on him. An additional point of interest is that Bejarano is sticking with AMERICAN FREEDOM instead of ARROGATE, who gets Mike Smith aboard. It's hard to know whose call that is (Baffert or Bejarano), but it's an additional point of pause.
2) AMERICAN FREEDOM: Ran pretty huge in the Haskell to only lose by 1.5 lengths to noted slop lover EXAGGERATOR. I think the amount of speed in this race, however, will make things more difficult on him than he's had to handle in the past, and I'll also note that AMERICAN FREEDOM also is bred to love the slop, too -- he figures to not quite be as good on a fast track.
3) MY MAN SAM: I was pretty high on this one earlier in the year, but the fact now is that he has only won one race in his lifetime and 10 furlongs is likely beyond his best distance. He's had trouble or been wide in his past three efforts, however, so if you like him enough you could reason that the trouble is mostly benefiting you with a better price. Irad Ortiz gets off to stick with CREATOR.
4) GOVERNOR MALIBU: He's been stuck inside in his last two races (Belmont and Jim Dandy), and there's a chance he'll get a clean trip and show that extra gear that he needs to win a race like this. I think he's good value at 12/1 and worth a small win bet, but my gut does tell me he doesn't have the necessary brilliance to win this kind of race. On the other hand, KEEN ICE won this race last year with a very grinding move down the stretch, so maybe GOVERNOR MALIBU can do the same.
5) FOREVER D'ORO: His run in the Curlin last-out wasn't bad in that he was behind a slow pace, but he also didn't make up any ground in the stretch. No thanks.
6) ANAXIMANDROS: I actually bet this one in the West Virginia Derby at 52-1. This is not the West Virginia Derby and he should be 120-1 here. Pass.
7) EXAGGERATOR: Until the Belmont, I truly did believe that he was as good on fast tracks as off tracks. After that debacle and then his stirring Haskell win, it's hard to operate under the same assumption anymore. There was also a lot of chatter pre-Santa Anita Derby that he might be best at a mile or thereabouts, and I do think 10 furlongs might be beyond his preferred distance. I'll take my chances against him at a short price on a fast track.
8) DESTIN: My initial reaction to DESTIN in this race is that he had no excuse in not going by LAOBAN in the Jim Dandy as he was just a length off his pace the whole way around the track, and if he was of any quality he would have done so. On the other hand, LAOBAN powered home in :59 2/5 after those slow early fractions, so it would have taken a truly super effort to close the gap there -- and DESTIN didn't *lose* any ground. He looks like great value at 10/1 and should sit a nice trip from his post.
9) GIFT BOX: My initial reaction to this one was the opposite of DESTIN -- I felt he would be my play here. He clearly needed the Curlin after a two-month layoff, which was itself preceded by a seven-month layoff. In the Curlin, he chased a slow pace set by stablemate CONNECT and looked like a winner early in the stretch, but CONNECT was able to spurt away. My biggest question is indeed the 10 furlongs. I think he can do fantastic things up to nine furlongs, but can he get that tenth. His sire, TWIRLING CANDY, never did seal the deal going ten furlongs, and frankly I'm not sure GIFT BOX can, either. He does come out of an UNBRIDLED'S SONG mare, however ... so it's tough. Castellano sticks with DESTIN over this one, which is probably the final straw for me against him.
10) CONNECT: I think this is a horrible morning line, for one thing. He has run ... OK. He should have won the Curlin after running :48 2/5 and 1:12 2/5 splits. In his last race, Castellano stuck with GIFT BOX over CONNECT, both of whom he had ridden previously. He might be an interesting horse at 15/1, but I wouldn't touch him anywhere near this morning line (did I mention it's a horrible morning line?).
12) CREATOR: He had no chance in the Jim Dandy with his style and that pace. None. We know he relishes more distance, and the pace should be much more to his liking. Definitely worth a play at something near his morning line.
13) LAOBAN: A faster pace and the near impossibility of getting away with that kind of murder on the front end again makes him a play against. The only thing that gives me some pause is the 2013 Travers (MORENO) and Guillot's track record of tough-as-nails frontrunners at the Spa, but he'll almost absolutely be an underlay here.
14) GUN RUNNER: A very tough one to figure. His only two off-the-board finishes in his lifetime were on off tracks, so you could draw a line through the Haskell and then ask yourself what to do with him. His speed figures have been right on the winning par and he's never run worse than third, and he gets to sit outside the speed of the speed if he so chooses. I view him similar to GOVERNOR MALIBU -- it's hard to see him coming up with the brilliant run to outright *win* this race, but he's one that I think can certainly be in the mix.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #4 GOVERNOR MALIBU, #8 DESTIN and #12 CREATOR. I don't have enough of a feel for too many of the horses in this race to actually recommend an exotic play, but if you do want to take a stab, I'd recommend tossing EXAGGERATOR and CONNECT and going from there.
Race 6 -- The Grade 1 Personal Ensign: I know many will bemoan a five-horse field here, but at least it's an extremely competitive five-horse field.
1) I'M A CHATTERBOX: It's interesting that they keep running her at 9+ furlongs, because her pedigree absolutely screams sprint to me. She's obviously doing quite well, however, banking $1.8 million and coming in to this race off of two straight wins. On the other hand, she's only 4 1-1-1 at this nine-furlong distance lifetime, and I think whereas she is almost unbeatable at 1 1/16 or even a flat mile, this might be further than she would prefer. And yet she reached the wire before favorite CURALINA in both of their meetings here at the Spa (so she's actually 4 2-0-1, and that off the board finish was in the BC Distaff when she really lost herself pre-race to my recollection).
2) CURALINA: Beaten by I'M A CHATTERBOX here in the CCA Oaks last summer but placed first through DQ, she was winless the rest of last year but is 2-for-3 this season. Her efforts in her second runs off of layoffs have always been dull, and while she's a consistent and hard tryer, I'm still frankly not convinced she's that good -- she has failed to beat a lot of small fields, and she's run only one truly impressive race in her career (the La Troienne on Derby day this year).
3) FOREVER UNBRIDLED: She really seems to have improved as a 4-year-old and should enjoy the stretch out here. And despite the fact that she doesn't run on the lead, she also doesn't seem to appreciate fast paces, so this race may suit her well regardless. She'll like the extra ground, but the big question will be if she's truly good enough no matter how much she has improved -- I'M A CHATTERBOX beat her four times last year, and CAVORTING beat her last-out.
4) PAID UP SUBSCRIBER: She ran pretty valiantly in defeat in the Delaware Handicap, but I don't think she was catching I'M A CHATTERBOX in a million years.
5) CAVORTING: I don't really know why they would run here here instead of in the Ballerina, but I guess they're trying to up her value as a mare with a Grade 1 route win? She was dominant in the sprint distances last year and the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint but only ran fourth after breaking from post 14 and being hung seven wide. She won the Ruffian at a mile and then made a dramatic move to win the Ogden Phipps at 1 1/16, which I guess is why they're trying to stretch her out even a little bit more here. I just think it's the wrong move, but she does get Castellano back aboard and is 3-for-3 at the Spa.
All in all, I'm partial to the 1-2 finishers in the Delaware Handicap. I do think I'M A CHATTERBOX is the most likely winner, so as the fourth choice, that's very appealing. And at 10/1 in a small field, PAID UP SUBSCRIBER is solid value.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #1 I'M A CHATTERBOX (big) and #4 PAID UP SUBSCRIBER (small).
Race 7 -- The Grade 1 Ballerina: A lot of times when fields are very tough to separate, people will call them "good betting races." I'm not sure I agree. When I look at a race full of horses where any one of them could seemingly win depending on trip and pace, I find it hard to have a throw down my ducats trying to guess what's going to happen. Note that I said I find it "hard" -- because you know I'm still going to try. WAVELL AVENUE makes the most sense here and even seems to have value at 3/1 on the morning line ... but I think the pace sets up very poorly for her. Ditto for HAVEYOUGONEAWAY. On the other hand, I could see No. 3 PAULASSILVERLINING grabbing the lead under Jose Ortiz and taking them gate to wire here. Really it's between her, No. 5 SARAH SIS and #9 CARINA MIA for the early lead. CARINA MIA could be very sharp on the turnback with a lot of fitness under her built off of that taxing second to SONGBIRD, and she looks ready based on her Aug. 20 bullet (which was proceeded by a near-bullet on Aug. 13 and another bullet on Aug. 5). I think based on post and running style, regardless of odds, CARINA MIA is the most likely winner if that's all you're looking for. The other I'll mention as a player is BY THE MOON -- she has more tactical speed than some of the probably "better" closers and should benefit from getting Castellano aboard and first run on the back markers. I did mention No. 5 SARAH SIS earlier and I suppose it's conceivable that she could sneak away on the front end and steal this one, but I'll more likely play her underneath in exotics on a speed and fade but hold angle.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #3 PAULASSILVERLINING and #9 CARINA MIA. Unless the track looks like it's favoring closers, pace trifecta of 2, 3, 9 wt 2, 3, 5, 9 wt 2, 3, 5, 9.
Race 8 -- The Grade 1 King's Bishop: Indulge me a quick hunch longshot play that isn't backed up by much logical handicapping information -- No. 4 TALE OF S'AVALL took a bunch of money here on Travers Day last summer and broke his maiden at 3/1. I was appalled at the amount of money he was taking at the time and of course as I bet against him, was cursing myself the whole time that someone knew something I didn't ... and of course, they did. He was immediately thrown into Grade 1 company in the Champagne in his next start, and after that he's run in another Grade 1, two Grade 2s, a Grade 3 and a $100k stake. The best he's managed since then was a second in that $100k stake in May and a third-place finish in the Dwyer last-out. They clearly think he's extremely talented, and he did fire a near-bullet workout here on Aug. 20. Based on pedigree, I would expect this or a mile to be his best distance, so ... there you go. But maybe just sticking to that hunch is the best way to play this race, because it's hard for me to separate MOHAYMEN, JAZZY TIMES and DREFONG. And even after that there's ECONOMIC MODEL and FISH TRAPPE ROAD and TOM'S READY and even MIND YOUR BISCUITS, who seems to have put all the piece together in his last two. And how about SUMMER REVOLUTION, who no doubt moves way up in class here but has trounced weaker at this distance in his first two starts? I'm not all that sold on JAZZY TIMES; he strikes me as a need the lead speedster, and although that's worked fairly well at 6.5 furlongs in every start so far in his career, he'll have to run faster than ever to get the lead this time out, and that extra half furlong could be a problem. I think DREFONG is quite probably the goods here, but MOHAYMEN has always been so aggressive in the mornings -- if he can really be unleashed at this shorter distance vs. needing to conserve his energy, how good can he be? I also don't really expect NOHOLDINGBACK BEAR to transfer his Woodbine form to the dirt here at Saratoga, but what if he does? It's wide open, as is evidenced by six horses on the morning line at less than 10/1.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #4 TALE OF S'AVALL, #6 MOHAYMEN and #13 DREFONG. Exacta box those three, as well.
Race 9 -- The Grade 1 Forego: Another absolutely sick race. I think you could make a reasonably compelling argument for just about any of these (the one I would be most willing to toss would be THE TRUTH OR ELSE, and yet if this thing breaks down with a speed duel and given that it's seven furlongs, I would be sick about doing that), but I will say that three stick out to me. No. 3 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL ran huge at the Spa last summer in just his third lifetime start, and he's back after consecutive second-place finishes in graded stakes at Churchill and Gulfstream. He gets Castellano aboard and could sit a nice trip outside what I think is the speed of the speed just to his inside (CHIEF LION). He looks good at 15/1. Next is No. 9 READY FOR RYE. Castellano gets off of this one, but Velazquez gets on and I wonder if this was almost mutual -- READY FOR RYE has been off at odds of less than 6/1 in his past five races against heady company, yet all he has to show for it are two seconds and three thirds. He's had bad starts, run wide, and been clear and caught. A rider change could do him well, and I think that seven furlongs is probably his best distance. A nice value at 10/1. Finally, No. 10 DANNIE'S DECEIVER is 30/1 on the morning line but is 2-for-3 lifetime at the seven furlong distance and seems like more of a threat than that. The pedigree is good and while his 100-99-101 last three speed figures don't match up all that favorably against race favorite A.P. INDIAN's string of 105-101-106, they're not *that* much worse and he could certainly come flying if there's a pace meltdown in front of him. With all of that said, a few thoughts on the more "logical" horses -- MARKING makes a lot of sense and I would absolutely play him over A.P. INDIAN, who I wouldn't expect to get the kind of sweet trips he's been getting breaking from post #11. Another bomb that makes some counterintuitive sense is TAMARKUZ. Even though his Met Mile this year was pathetic, and he hasn't really done a thing since tearing up Dubai in 2015 ... McLaughlin is throwing him back in with the wolves here, even against his own charge in MARKING. It may be a last-ditch effort for him, but it's an interesting angle with Mike Smith aboard. Finally, I'll make mention of CATALINA RED -- he's a perfect 3-for-3 at this distance and won the Churchill Downs on Derby day at 14/1, but I would imagine that Castellano had the opportunity to get back on this one since Saez only ran third last-out ... and he opted for READY FOR RYE instead. On the rail with all the speed to the outside could be a death sentence, too.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #3 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL, #9 READY FOR RYE and #10 DANNIE'S DECEIVER (small on this one).
Race 10: The Grade 1 Sword Dancer: This one is actually really easy. Bet FLINTSHIRE and take the money, stupid. He absolutely *towers* above this field, particularly at this distance. GRAND TITO did run a fairly nice race in the Bowling Green last-out, but that was never in doubt once FLINTSHIRE got clear. If you feel the need to complicate things, I would toss in MONEY MULTIPLIER and INORDINATE for the Chad Brown trifecta of interests. MONEY MULTIPLIER is the most logical, of course, at 8/1 on the morning line and coming off a win here in an optional claimer on August 5th and solid seconds in the United Nations and Man O'War races prior to that. On the other hand, if you're into value plays that are very likely to lose, INORDINATE is the only I would recommend. It's frankly just a weird spot for him coming off a fifth-place finish in an optional claimer ... why would Brown step him up here against FLINTSHIRE, his own horse? It could be that the owner simply wants to run him, but Brown doesn't win with 26 percent of his starters by listening to every owner that wants to run in a race. He might belong just enough to give him a shot? On the other hand, this may be a ridiculous concept and he may be entered purely as a rabbit, but he has been a late speed horse his whole career. That's not to say they won't just have Gryder pump him out of the gate and that will be that, but even then, if they leave him alone long enough? Didn't SHINING COPPER almost take a big graded race down while winging it on the front end for BIG BLUE KITTEN at some point in the past year or two?
THE PLAYS: FLINTSHIRE to win. If you must, FLINTSHIRE over MONEY MULTIPLIER and INORDINATE in an exacta.
Race 12 -- The Grade 2 Ballston Spa: After six Grade 1s in a row, most Grade 2 races would feel like a letdown ... but none this one. The superlative LADY ELI returns after nearly being claimed by colic last year, and all indications are that she's training just as well as she was before that episode. She's 6-for-6 lifetime and has won every which way so far in her career. However, she's coming off the year-plus layoff and also never had beaten older horses -- all of her six wins were in age-restricted races. Speed figures on turf are kind of a joke, but she's certainly not a standout based on them, so she'll likely need to move forward off of all of that to beat these.
Based on that and her likely very short price, I will try to beat her with No. 5 SENTIERO ITALIA. Despite stumbling at the start in her last, she sat just 1.5 lengths off a very fast pace (:46 3/5 for the half and 1:09 3/5 for three quarters) and still powered home strongly enough to win by more than two lengths in her first off the layoff. McLaughlin is even better second off the layoff and she figures to run big her. MISS TEMPLE CITY may indeed be the second-best horse in the race behind LADY ELI, but if you want to bet a favorite, just bet LADY ELI.
Two other horses warrant mentioning. SWEET ACCLAIM has raced mostly in non-graded stakes and even some optional claimer/allowance races this year (she won both with today's jockey, Florent Geroux, aboard), but in three graded tries lifetime, she's run second by a head, fourth by two lengths and second by 2.5 lengths). I don't know that she's worth a win bet at all, but she could be some exotics spice. The other is ONUS, who sat just off a reasonably strong pace, took the lead on the turn, and kicked on decently enough to lead until mid-stretch before being overtaken in the Grade 1 Diana here last month. Frankly nine furlongs may have been a sixteenth too many, and I do think based on pedigree and running style, the distance here suits her much better. She may also be the controlling speed here and is pretty intriguing at a 12/1 morning line.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #5 SENTIERO ITALIA and #7 ONUS. 3,5,7 wt 1,3,5,7,8 wt 1,3,5,7,8 trifecta.
They're not entirely wrong, to be fair. Rather than spreading the six Grade 1 races that will be run consecutively tomorrow across five or six other weekend cards, NYRA has put them together in one Pick 6 sequence.
So, sure -- the sport might have lost something along the way in terms of traditions for a day that was previously headlined by one of these races.
But, seriously. We're talking about six back-to-back Grade 1 races.
THE HORROR.
There's no doubt that this is one of the top four days of horse racing in 2016 along with Kentucky Derby Day, Belmont Stakes Day, and Breeders' Cup Saturday. I'm not even sure what order I would put all of those in, but as I handicapped the Travers card for tomorrow, I was starting to think it would be hard for even the Breeders' Cup slate to top these races. There are no 2-year-old races on this slate, for instance. Two-year-old races are certainly fun and it's exciting to watch the potential stars of tomorrow, but from a pure quality standpoint, Travers Day may have Breeders' Cup Saturday beat. It's going to be a great day.
The forecast calls for a high of 85 and a 10% chance of rain (sorry EXAGGERATOR). Here are my thoughts on all of the graded races on the Travers Day card, starting with the Travers itself:
Race 11 -- The Grade 1 Travers: A 13-horse field (MAJESTO is expected to scratch) for the Travers is just fantastic. Sure, we're missing NYQUIST, but my hat is off to the connections of all these horses for not being scared off my EXAGGERATOR. It's a $1.25 million race -- everyone with an able body that might relatively fit should take a shot!
With that said, it's an incredibly difficult race to handicap. I'll try to parse this horse by horse:
1) ARROGATE: May well be the best 3-year-old out there when all is said and done, but he'll have to win without the benefit of a slow pace before I bet on him. An additional point of interest is that Bejarano is sticking with AMERICAN FREEDOM instead of ARROGATE, who gets Mike Smith aboard. It's hard to know whose call that is (Baffert or Bejarano), but it's an additional point of pause.
2) AMERICAN FREEDOM: Ran pretty huge in the Haskell to only lose by 1.5 lengths to noted slop lover EXAGGERATOR. I think the amount of speed in this race, however, will make things more difficult on him than he's had to handle in the past, and I'll also note that AMERICAN FREEDOM also is bred to love the slop, too -- he figures to not quite be as good on a fast track.
3) MY MAN SAM: I was pretty high on this one earlier in the year, but the fact now is that he has only won one race in his lifetime and 10 furlongs is likely beyond his best distance. He's had trouble or been wide in his past three efforts, however, so if you like him enough you could reason that the trouble is mostly benefiting you with a better price. Irad Ortiz gets off to stick with CREATOR.
4) GOVERNOR MALIBU: He's been stuck inside in his last two races (Belmont and Jim Dandy), and there's a chance he'll get a clean trip and show that extra gear that he needs to win a race like this. I think he's good value at 12/1 and worth a small win bet, but my gut does tell me he doesn't have the necessary brilliance to win this kind of race. On the other hand, KEEN ICE won this race last year with a very grinding move down the stretch, so maybe GOVERNOR MALIBU can do the same.
5) FOREVER D'ORO: His run in the Curlin last-out wasn't bad in that he was behind a slow pace, but he also didn't make up any ground in the stretch. No thanks.
6) ANAXIMANDROS: I actually bet this one in the West Virginia Derby at 52-1. This is not the West Virginia Derby and he should be 120-1 here. Pass.
7) EXAGGERATOR: Until the Belmont, I truly did believe that he was as good on fast tracks as off tracks. After that debacle and then his stirring Haskell win, it's hard to operate under the same assumption anymore. There was also a lot of chatter pre-Santa Anita Derby that he might be best at a mile or thereabouts, and I do think 10 furlongs might be beyond his preferred distance. I'll take my chances against him at a short price on a fast track.
8) DESTIN: My initial reaction to DESTIN in this race is that he had no excuse in not going by LAOBAN in the Jim Dandy as he was just a length off his pace the whole way around the track, and if he was of any quality he would have done so. On the other hand, LAOBAN powered home in :59 2/5 after those slow early fractions, so it would have taken a truly super effort to close the gap there -- and DESTIN didn't *lose* any ground. He looks like great value at 10/1 and should sit a nice trip from his post.
9) GIFT BOX: My initial reaction to this one was the opposite of DESTIN -- I felt he would be my play here. He clearly needed the Curlin after a two-month layoff, which was itself preceded by a seven-month layoff. In the Curlin, he chased a slow pace set by stablemate CONNECT and looked like a winner early in the stretch, but CONNECT was able to spurt away. My biggest question is indeed the 10 furlongs. I think he can do fantastic things up to nine furlongs, but can he get that tenth. His sire, TWIRLING CANDY, never did seal the deal going ten furlongs, and frankly I'm not sure GIFT BOX can, either. He does come out of an UNBRIDLED'S SONG mare, however ... so it's tough. Castellano sticks with DESTIN over this one, which is probably the final straw for me against him.
10) CONNECT: I think this is a horrible morning line, for one thing. He has run ... OK. He should have won the Curlin after running :48 2/5 and 1:12 2/5 splits. In his last race, Castellano stuck with GIFT BOX over CONNECT, both of whom he had ridden previously. He might be an interesting horse at 15/1, but I wouldn't touch him anywhere near this morning line (did I mention it's a horrible morning line?).
12) CREATOR: He had no chance in the Jim Dandy with his style and that pace. None. We know he relishes more distance, and the pace should be much more to his liking. Definitely worth a play at something near his morning line.
13) LAOBAN: A faster pace and the near impossibility of getting away with that kind of murder on the front end again makes him a play against. The only thing that gives me some pause is the 2013 Travers (MORENO) and Guillot's track record of tough-as-nails frontrunners at the Spa, but he'll almost absolutely be an underlay here.
14) GUN RUNNER: A very tough one to figure. His only two off-the-board finishes in his lifetime were on off tracks, so you could draw a line through the Haskell and then ask yourself what to do with him. His speed figures have been right on the winning par and he's never run worse than third, and he gets to sit outside the speed of the speed if he so chooses. I view him similar to GOVERNOR MALIBU -- it's hard to see him coming up with the brilliant run to outright *win* this race, but he's one that I think can certainly be in the mix.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #4 GOVERNOR MALIBU, #8 DESTIN and #12 CREATOR. I don't have enough of a feel for too many of the horses in this race to actually recommend an exotic play, but if you do want to take a stab, I'd recommend tossing EXAGGERATOR and CONNECT and going from there.
Race 6 -- The Grade 1 Personal Ensign: I know many will bemoan a five-horse field here, but at least it's an extremely competitive five-horse field.
1) I'M A CHATTERBOX: It's interesting that they keep running her at 9+ furlongs, because her pedigree absolutely screams sprint to me. She's obviously doing quite well, however, banking $1.8 million and coming in to this race off of two straight wins. On the other hand, she's only 4 1-1-1 at this nine-furlong distance lifetime, and I think whereas she is almost unbeatable at 1 1/16 or even a flat mile, this might be further than she would prefer. And yet she reached the wire before favorite CURALINA in both of their meetings here at the Spa (so she's actually 4 2-0-1, and that off the board finish was in the BC Distaff when she really lost herself pre-race to my recollection).
2) CURALINA: Beaten by I'M A CHATTERBOX here in the CCA Oaks last summer but placed first through DQ, she was winless the rest of last year but is 2-for-3 this season. Her efforts in her second runs off of layoffs have always been dull, and while she's a consistent and hard tryer, I'm still frankly not convinced she's that good -- she has failed to beat a lot of small fields, and she's run only one truly impressive race in her career (the La Troienne on Derby day this year).
3) FOREVER UNBRIDLED: She really seems to have improved as a 4-year-old and should enjoy the stretch out here. And despite the fact that she doesn't run on the lead, she also doesn't seem to appreciate fast paces, so this race may suit her well regardless. She'll like the extra ground, but the big question will be if she's truly good enough no matter how much she has improved -- I'M A CHATTERBOX beat her four times last year, and CAVORTING beat her last-out.
4) PAID UP SUBSCRIBER: She ran pretty valiantly in defeat in the Delaware Handicap, but I don't think she was catching I'M A CHATTERBOX in a million years.
5) CAVORTING: I don't really know why they would run here here instead of in the Ballerina, but I guess they're trying to up her value as a mare with a Grade 1 route win? She was dominant in the sprint distances last year and the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint but only ran fourth after breaking from post 14 and being hung seven wide. She won the Ruffian at a mile and then made a dramatic move to win the Ogden Phipps at 1 1/16, which I guess is why they're trying to stretch her out even a little bit more here. I just think it's the wrong move, but she does get Castellano back aboard and is 3-for-3 at the Spa.
All in all, I'm partial to the 1-2 finishers in the Delaware Handicap. I do think I'M A CHATTERBOX is the most likely winner, so as the fourth choice, that's very appealing. And at 10/1 in a small field, PAID UP SUBSCRIBER is solid value.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #1 I'M A CHATTERBOX (big) and #4 PAID UP SUBSCRIBER (small).
Race 7 -- The Grade 1 Ballerina: A lot of times when fields are very tough to separate, people will call them "good betting races." I'm not sure I agree. When I look at a race full of horses where any one of them could seemingly win depending on trip and pace, I find it hard to have a throw down my ducats trying to guess what's going to happen. Note that I said I find it "hard" -- because you know I'm still going to try. WAVELL AVENUE makes the most sense here and even seems to have value at 3/1 on the morning line ... but I think the pace sets up very poorly for her. Ditto for HAVEYOUGONEAWAY. On the other hand, I could see No. 3 PAULASSILVERLINING grabbing the lead under Jose Ortiz and taking them gate to wire here. Really it's between her, No. 5 SARAH SIS and #9 CARINA MIA for the early lead. CARINA MIA could be very sharp on the turnback with a lot of fitness under her built off of that taxing second to SONGBIRD, and she looks ready based on her Aug. 20 bullet (which was proceeded by a near-bullet on Aug. 13 and another bullet on Aug. 5). I think based on post and running style, regardless of odds, CARINA MIA is the most likely winner if that's all you're looking for. The other I'll mention as a player is BY THE MOON -- she has more tactical speed than some of the probably "better" closers and should benefit from getting Castellano aboard and first run on the back markers. I did mention No. 5 SARAH SIS earlier and I suppose it's conceivable that she could sneak away on the front end and steal this one, but I'll more likely play her underneath in exotics on a speed and fade but hold angle.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #3 PAULASSILVERLINING and #9 CARINA MIA. Unless the track looks like it's favoring closers, pace trifecta of 2, 3, 9 wt 2, 3, 5, 9 wt 2, 3, 5, 9.
Race 8 -- The Grade 1 King's Bishop: Indulge me a quick hunch longshot play that isn't backed up by much logical handicapping information -- No. 4 TALE OF S'AVALL took a bunch of money here on Travers Day last summer and broke his maiden at 3/1. I was appalled at the amount of money he was taking at the time and of course as I bet against him, was cursing myself the whole time that someone knew something I didn't ... and of course, they did. He was immediately thrown into Grade 1 company in the Champagne in his next start, and after that he's run in another Grade 1, two Grade 2s, a Grade 3 and a $100k stake. The best he's managed since then was a second in that $100k stake in May and a third-place finish in the Dwyer last-out. They clearly think he's extremely talented, and he did fire a near-bullet workout here on Aug. 20. Based on pedigree, I would expect this or a mile to be his best distance, so ... there you go. But maybe just sticking to that hunch is the best way to play this race, because it's hard for me to separate MOHAYMEN, JAZZY TIMES and DREFONG. And even after that there's ECONOMIC MODEL and FISH TRAPPE ROAD and TOM'S READY and even MIND YOUR BISCUITS, who seems to have put all the piece together in his last two. And how about SUMMER REVOLUTION, who no doubt moves way up in class here but has trounced weaker at this distance in his first two starts? I'm not all that sold on JAZZY TIMES; he strikes me as a need the lead speedster, and although that's worked fairly well at 6.5 furlongs in every start so far in his career, he'll have to run faster than ever to get the lead this time out, and that extra half furlong could be a problem. I think DREFONG is quite probably the goods here, but MOHAYMEN has always been so aggressive in the mornings -- if he can really be unleashed at this shorter distance vs. needing to conserve his energy, how good can he be? I also don't really expect NOHOLDINGBACK BEAR to transfer his Woodbine form to the dirt here at Saratoga, but what if he does? It's wide open, as is evidenced by six horses on the morning line at less than 10/1.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #4 TALE OF S'AVALL, #6 MOHAYMEN and #13 DREFONG. Exacta box those three, as well.
Race 9 -- The Grade 1 Forego: Another absolutely sick race. I think you could make a reasonably compelling argument for just about any of these (the one I would be most willing to toss would be THE TRUTH OR ELSE, and yet if this thing breaks down with a speed duel and given that it's seven furlongs, I would be sick about doing that), but I will say that three stick out to me. No. 3 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL ran huge at the Spa last summer in just his third lifetime start, and he's back after consecutive second-place finishes in graded stakes at Churchill and Gulfstream. He gets Castellano aboard and could sit a nice trip outside what I think is the speed of the speed just to his inside (CHIEF LION). He looks good at 15/1. Next is No. 9 READY FOR RYE. Castellano gets off of this one, but Velazquez gets on and I wonder if this was almost mutual -- READY FOR RYE has been off at odds of less than 6/1 in his past five races against heady company, yet all he has to show for it are two seconds and three thirds. He's had bad starts, run wide, and been clear and caught. A rider change could do him well, and I think that seven furlongs is probably his best distance. A nice value at 10/1. Finally, No. 10 DANNIE'S DECEIVER is 30/1 on the morning line but is 2-for-3 lifetime at the seven furlong distance and seems like more of a threat than that. The pedigree is good and while his 100-99-101 last three speed figures don't match up all that favorably against race favorite A.P. INDIAN's string of 105-101-106, they're not *that* much worse and he could certainly come flying if there's a pace meltdown in front of him. With all of that said, a few thoughts on the more "logical" horses -- MARKING makes a lot of sense and I would absolutely play him over A.P. INDIAN, who I wouldn't expect to get the kind of sweet trips he's been getting breaking from post #11. Another bomb that makes some counterintuitive sense is TAMARKUZ. Even though his Met Mile this year was pathetic, and he hasn't really done a thing since tearing up Dubai in 2015 ... McLaughlin is throwing him back in with the wolves here, even against his own charge in MARKING. It may be a last-ditch effort for him, but it's an interesting angle with Mike Smith aboard. Finally, I'll make mention of CATALINA RED -- he's a perfect 3-for-3 at this distance and won the Churchill Downs on Derby day at 14/1, but I would imagine that Castellano had the opportunity to get back on this one since Saez only ran third last-out ... and he opted for READY FOR RYE instead. On the rail with all the speed to the outside could be a death sentence, too.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #3 LIMOUSINE LIBERAL, #9 READY FOR RYE and #10 DANNIE'S DECEIVER (small on this one).
Race 10: The Grade 1 Sword Dancer: This one is actually really easy. Bet FLINTSHIRE and take the money, stupid. He absolutely *towers* above this field, particularly at this distance. GRAND TITO did run a fairly nice race in the Bowling Green last-out, but that was never in doubt once FLINTSHIRE got clear. If you feel the need to complicate things, I would toss in MONEY MULTIPLIER and INORDINATE for the Chad Brown trifecta of interests. MONEY MULTIPLIER is the most logical, of course, at 8/1 on the morning line and coming off a win here in an optional claimer on August 5th and solid seconds in the United Nations and Man O'War races prior to that. On the other hand, if you're into value plays that are very likely to lose, INORDINATE is the only I would recommend. It's frankly just a weird spot for him coming off a fifth-place finish in an optional claimer ... why would Brown step him up here against FLINTSHIRE, his own horse? It could be that the owner simply wants to run him, but Brown doesn't win with 26 percent of his starters by listening to every owner that wants to run in a race. He might belong just enough to give him a shot? On the other hand, this may be a ridiculous concept and he may be entered purely as a rabbit, but he has been a late speed horse his whole career. That's not to say they won't just have Gryder pump him out of the gate and that will be that, but even then, if they leave him alone long enough? Didn't SHINING COPPER almost take a big graded race down while winging it on the front end for BIG BLUE KITTEN at some point in the past year or two?
THE PLAYS: FLINTSHIRE to win. If you must, FLINTSHIRE over MONEY MULTIPLIER and INORDINATE in an exacta.
Race 12 -- The Grade 2 Ballston Spa: After six Grade 1s in a row, most Grade 2 races would feel like a letdown ... but none this one. The superlative LADY ELI returns after nearly being claimed by colic last year, and all indications are that she's training just as well as she was before that episode. She's 6-for-6 lifetime and has won every which way so far in her career. However, she's coming off the year-plus layoff and also never had beaten older horses -- all of her six wins were in age-restricted races. Speed figures on turf are kind of a joke, but she's certainly not a standout based on them, so she'll likely need to move forward off of all of that to beat these.
Based on that and her likely very short price, I will try to beat her with No. 5 SENTIERO ITALIA. Despite stumbling at the start in her last, she sat just 1.5 lengths off a very fast pace (:46 3/5 for the half and 1:09 3/5 for three quarters) and still powered home strongly enough to win by more than two lengths in her first off the layoff. McLaughlin is even better second off the layoff and she figures to run big her. MISS TEMPLE CITY may indeed be the second-best horse in the race behind LADY ELI, but if you want to bet a favorite, just bet LADY ELI.
Two other horses warrant mentioning. SWEET ACCLAIM has raced mostly in non-graded stakes and even some optional claimer/allowance races this year (she won both with today's jockey, Florent Geroux, aboard), but in three graded tries lifetime, she's run second by a head, fourth by two lengths and second by 2.5 lengths). I don't know that she's worth a win bet at all, but she could be some exotics spice. The other is ONUS, who sat just off a reasonably strong pace, took the lead on the turn, and kicked on decently enough to lead until mid-stretch before being overtaken in the Grade 1 Diana here last month. Frankly nine furlongs may have been a sixteenth too many, and I do think based on pedigree and running style, the distance here suits her much better. She may also be the controlling speed here and is pretty intriguing at a 12/1 morning line.
THE PLAYS: Win bets on #5 SENTIERO ITALIA and #7 ONUS. 3,5,7 wt 1,3,5,7,8 wt 1,3,5,7,8 trifecta.