the 2015 CLEMENT L. HIRSCH STAKES (GRADE 1)
So, this BEHOLDER ... she's pretty good, eh?
A winner of 12-of-17 lifetime and 8 of her last 10 -- and those two losses were both by a length or less, and both to fantastic fillies in CLOSE HATCHES and PRINCESS OF SYLMAR -- BEHOLDER is peerless in this race. Based on both speed figures and class, and really any other metric you can possibly come up with, she is head and shoulders above this field.
But if that's really all I had to say about this race, I wouldn't have bothered even writing a preview.
As Craig Milkowski pointed out in the July edition of The Horesplayer Monthly (available here), Del Mar is *dead last* in terms of being speed friendly. It's hard to win on the pace at Del Mar.
Now, BEHOLDER has shown plenty of tractability -- she's certainly not a *need the lead* type -- but by the second call of every race that she has won in her past 10 starts dating back to April 2013, she hasn't been more than half a length off the lead. And on this surface -- where the average lengths back at the second call for these races has been 1.8 -- and against this competition -- of which six of eight horses other than BEHOLDER have at least five Quirin speed points -- there's plenty of reason to look elsewhere at a likely very short price.
WARREN'S VENEDA is the obvious alternative and rallied from nearly three lengths off the pace to capture the Santa Maria back in February at Santa Anita. With more pace in the Adoration two starts back against BEHOLDER, she might have been able to more seriously threaten her there. She will be a short price, of course, but nothing close to BEHOLDER.
THEGIRLINTHATSONG is another potential alternative at a somewhat longer price. She has been soundly beaten by WARREN'S VENEDA in her last two tries, but Hollendorfer off the layoff has been strong, and she looks like a true candidate to close. And don't look past the fact that she was favored over WARREN'S VENEDA in the Santa Maria.
With that said, I think THEGIRLINTHATSONG is the value play here -- I would be suprised if BEHOLDER is only 6/5 at post time, but if she is, that's just a confirmation that the crowd really does believe the track is not kind to speed.
Finally, YAHILWA strikes me as the one horse that could just freak out of nowhere and jump up to win this. She's shortening up off of a layoff, and while her pedigree doesn't necessarily indicate a distance limitation, her running style indicates she could be more of a threat to carry that speed going 1/16 shorter ... and she might be very overlooked due to the track profile.
The NO NEED TO CALL IT play: THEGIRLINTHATSONG, $20 Win; YAHILWA $10 Win; $2 exacta key box THEGIRLINTHATSONG, YAHILWA, WARREN'S VENEDA
A winner of 12-of-17 lifetime and 8 of her last 10 -- and those two losses were both by a length or less, and both to fantastic fillies in CLOSE HATCHES and PRINCESS OF SYLMAR -- BEHOLDER is peerless in this race. Based on both speed figures and class, and really any other metric you can possibly come up with, she is head and shoulders above this field.
But if that's really all I had to say about this race, I wouldn't have bothered even writing a preview.
As Craig Milkowski pointed out in the July edition of The Horesplayer Monthly (available here), Del Mar is *dead last* in terms of being speed friendly. It's hard to win on the pace at Del Mar.
Now, BEHOLDER has shown plenty of tractability -- she's certainly not a *need the lead* type -- but by the second call of every race that she has won in her past 10 starts dating back to April 2013, she hasn't been more than half a length off the lead. And on this surface -- where the average lengths back at the second call for these races has been 1.8 -- and against this competition -- of which six of eight horses other than BEHOLDER have at least five Quirin speed points -- there's plenty of reason to look elsewhere at a likely very short price.
WARREN'S VENEDA is the obvious alternative and rallied from nearly three lengths off the pace to capture the Santa Maria back in February at Santa Anita. With more pace in the Adoration two starts back against BEHOLDER, she might have been able to more seriously threaten her there. She will be a short price, of course, but nothing close to BEHOLDER.
THEGIRLINTHATSONG is another potential alternative at a somewhat longer price. She has been soundly beaten by WARREN'S VENEDA in her last two tries, but Hollendorfer off the layoff has been strong, and she looks like a true candidate to close. And don't look past the fact that she was favored over WARREN'S VENEDA in the Santa Maria.
With that said, I think THEGIRLINTHATSONG is the value play here -- I would be suprised if BEHOLDER is only 6/5 at post time, but if she is, that's just a confirmation that the crowd really does believe the track is not kind to speed.
Finally, YAHILWA strikes me as the one horse that could just freak out of nowhere and jump up to win this. She's shortening up off of a layoff, and while her pedigree doesn't necessarily indicate a distance limitation, her running style indicates she could be more of a threat to carry that speed going 1/16 shorter ... and she might be very overlooked due to the track profile.
The NO NEED TO CALL IT play: THEGIRLINTHATSONG, $20 Win; YAHILWA $10 Win; $2 exacta key box THEGIRLINTHATSONG, YAHILWA, WARREN'S VENEDA