The 2017 No Need To Call It Preakness Prelude
(Preceded by a Derby Data Dump)
Another Derby ... another swing and a miss for me.
That said, at the end of the day I had this one closer to pegged than many, and actually I feel I was at least a little bit unlucky to not get *anything*.
Before I get to that, though, ALWAYS DREAMING does deserve plenty of credit -- he got pinned inside a bit at the start, and actually got a huge break when STATE OF HONOR pushed past him and he was able to skip outside. On one hand, yes, that was a break, but on the other, he deserves the credit for having the tactical speed and stop/go ability to get to that hole.
From there, he had a relatively dreamy (pun intended baby!) trip as the pace slowed down. Early pace is always important -- that first half mile is a big deal, no doubt -- but my anecdotal observation has always been that it's the third quarter that makes or breaks a frontrunner. And in the Derby, after 22 and change followed by 46 and change, they got to the 3/4 in 1:11 and change.
That was the break that forwardly placed horses like ALWAYS DREAMING and BATTLE OF MIDWAY (who I need to watch some more to determine what I really think of his race -- this is the second straight race where he stuck around late strongly; does it mean the track was speed favoring or is he just that damn plucky?) needed to conserve some energy when turning for home and turn away threats like IRISH WAR CRY (who frankly may have bled or flipped a palate or something, as Maragh was looking around like he was sitting on a monster and then he stopped hard at the top of the stretch) and even MCCRAKEN, who also made a menacing move but flattened out.
So, as I said prior to the race, there was definitely something in my gut telling me that ALWAYS DREAMING was simply much the best in this class, and this race seemed to mostly confirm that. But between the slow pace in the middle of the race and the slop and the traffic troubles of two other horses in particular -- CLASSIC EMPIRE and TAPWRIT -- I think the jury is still at least a little bit out.
Before I get to CLASSIC EMPIRE and TAPWRIT, however, a nod to LOOKIN AT LEE who we all knew would be coming late -- just not that threateningly! I thought he was the winner at the quarter pole based on the way he skipped along the rail and found open ground, but that was certainly another feather in ALWAYS DREAMING's hat to turn him away. The early word is that they will try LOOKIN AT LEE again in the Preakness, which seems a little silly since he is likely better bred for the Belmont, but on the other hand he does appear to be somewhat of a throwback iron horse with 10 starts already, so why not run him if he's doing well?
With those horses covered, I'll get to another horse with a pretty much perfect trip -- PRACTICAL JOKE. From the No. 19 hole, his trip was an absolute dream, but as Chad Brown has already been on record saying, now we know he just doesn't want to go this far. Which, to me, is maybe a little questionable -- you can't tell me this horse can't win the Indiana Derby or something like that -- but he does seem to have the makings of a CALEB'S POSSE-type miler with that big one-turn mile move. It doesn't sound like he'll contest any more Triple Crown races despite the fifth-place finish.
Finally, in terms of where they finished and what they encountered before doing so, I feel pretty strongly that fourth-place finisher CLASSIC EMPIRE and sixth-place finisher TAPWRIT were at least the second and third best horses in the race. As much as I would love to scream about how right I was with TAPWRIT and that there's no doubt he would have won with a better trip, I can't reasonably do that. If either he or CLASSIC EMPIRE had gotten the LOOKIN AT LEE trip, though? Then we're at least looking at a fight to the finish.
After IRISH WAR CRY took a Bayern-style left-hand turn out of the gate, he immediately squeezed back TAPWRIT (who had Ortiz up in the irons) and bounced into MCCRAKEN, who then walloped CLASSIC EMPIRE. It was a mess, and it's hard to say who got the worst of it. TAPWRIT ended up off balance and further back than I'm sure he would have liked to be (and didn't like the mud going past the line the first time), while CLASSIC EMPIRE got legitimately beat up (apparently he had an eye swollen shut after the race, although they weren't sure if that could be from mud or the collision itself) but was more forwardly placed after the incident.
In any event, TAPWRIT more or less followed CLASSIC EMPIRE the rest of the way around the track, and they encountered most of the same problems as a result -- first going into the far turn when some horses started to bunch up, and then again nearing the top of the stretch -- here CLASSIC EMPIRE went a bit wider while TAPWRIT dove to the rail and started making up some late ground.
And, of course, they covered quite a bit more ground than any of the nigh-perfect trip horses that finished in front of them while closing into a slow-ish pace on a track that was perhaps slightly speed favoring (depending on your read of BATTLE OF MIDWAY). In other words, if and when they run again in this Triple Crown season, CLASSIC EMPIRE and TAPWRIT will be two to watch to topple ALWAYS DREAMING. I'm not convinced either are truly better, but the point is that I don't think we got the opportunity to find out on Saturday.
Maybe the two most disappointing horses due to the way their trips developed yet their stretch runs didn't are the aforementioned IRISH WAR CRY and MCCRAKEN.
You could make some excuse for MCCRAKEN as he did get banged around early and apparently took enough damage that he won't contest any more Triple Crown races, but he still settled into a pretty nice mid-pack trip and moved up on the turn while appearing to be loaded for bear. IRISH WAR CRY did the same thing, perhaps even officially taking the lead at one point, but then ... nothing. They both were empty and one-paced (at best) in the stretch.
GUNNEVERA fell well back again and didn't get the sort of pace meltdown he needed, bottom line. That said, TAPWRIT was in his same neighborhood early, and that one ran on better despite more apparent trouble throughout, so this was certainly a disappointment. He also may have simply not taken to the muddy track.
The only other top ten finisher not covered yet was GORMLEY, who challenged briefly on the turn before falling off similar to IRISH WAR CRY, although not quite so drastically. In any event, it seems clear now that BATTLE OF MIDWAY is a superior horse and only lost the Santa Anita Derby due to that blistering pace.
The bottom ten ... are basically who I thought they were. That's what makes this Derby both a little bit more satisfying and a little bit more frustrating -- other than BATTLE OF MIDWAY holding on as he did, the top 10 made the most sense.
THUNDER SNOW was a laugher, and for him to go off at 16-1 was comical, although maybe not quite as comical as PATCH at 13-1. That one was a Derby public special. PATCH actually secured a decent position early from his post but just didn't have much and feel back on the turn.
HENCE, UNTRAPPED and GIRVIN didn't appear to have any excuses other than simply not being good enough. J BOYS ECHO may have had a bit of a rougher trip, but I'll need to review that again.
The way STATE OF HONOR spit the bit was definitely disappointing but not necessarily surprising given that he went off at 53-1 -- I did think he could be the pluckier frontrunner that BATTLE OF MIDWAY turned out to be, but alas. IRAP, too, appeared to be in good position but offered nothing as he faded behind even FAST AND ACCURATE, who despite the owner's wishes simply wasn't able to get out and get that clean lead -- we knew that could happen, and the jockeyd didn't go all out to get it, and that was that. That only leaves SONNETEER, who they gave the standard line of "didn't handle the track" to, but beyond that, he didn't get the pace you would have wanted him to.
All of that said, here's what I think the finishing order "should have been":
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (a bit begrudgingly as there are still questions, but he was much the best)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE
3. TAPWRIT
4. BATTLE OF MIDWAY (STATE OF HONOR, IRAP, GORMLEY and IRISH WAR CRY were all forwardly placed and gakked it up late, so this one maybe did offer more than meets the eye)
5. LOOKIN AT LEE (Perfect trip still took a good horse to get the trip
It will be interesting to see what many of these connections decide to do -- so many of these horses offered so little that unless they deduce that the horse "didn't handle the track," I would be hard pressed to run back any of the horses not mentioned above. And if CLASSIC EMPIRE and/or TAPWRIT skip any/both of the races, it sort of feels like we could be looking at another Triple Crown winner (and it will be really interesting to see if Pletcher runs a) BATTALION RUNNER as he could be the biggest monkeywrench left out there for the Preakness or b) TAPWRIT in the Belmont as he should relish that distance. Would a trainer risk busting his own Triple Crown bid?
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With all of the above said, you might be thinking that I'm ready to back up the truck on an ALWAYS DREAMING/CLASSIC EMPIRE all-chalk exacta. And if you do that, I will readily admit that you will probably win for a number of reasons.
1) Derby horses almost always outperform the "new shooters" in the Preakness because they had to be good enough to make it to the Derby in the first place, and the fact that they're continuing on in the Preakness means they continue to be in good form.
So while I can't say to immediately focus only on Derby horses due to that, that leaves us with GUNNEVERA, HENCE, CLASSIC EMPIRE, ALWAYS DREAMING and LOOKIN AT LEE.
However, CLOUD COMPUTING and CONQUEST MO MONEY are a little bit different in that they *could* have run in the Derby, but decided not to. So they have the base and form, but also maybe a little freshness edge.
MULTIPLIER, SENIOR INVESTMENT, TERM OF ART and LANCASTER BOMBER are the four "traditional" new shooters, and would be the knee jerk tosses (and, accordingly, all are extreme longshots).
2) I was against ALWAYS DREAMING in the Derby, but I have to admit that I'm having a hard time seeing how he could lose the Preakness. Based on the apparent lack of pace (five horses -- GUNNEVERA, HENCE, LOOKIN AT LEE, SENIOR INVESTMENT and TERM OF ART -- have 0 early speed points, and two others -- MULTIPLIER and LANCASTER BOMBER -- have just one each), it seems fairly elementary to conclude that ALWAYS DREAMING should be able to sit just off the pace set by CONQUEST MO MONEY, bide his time and draw off in the stretch.
I would have a hard time arguing that ALWAYS DREAMING doesn't win this race at least half the time. He more or less paired speed figures in the Derby after his near-track record Florida Derby, and in theory that means he should be ready for another move forward. Basically the only argument against him in the Preakness would have to be connected to the fact that Todd Pletcher is not at all known for running horses back on short rest ... but I think the official statistic on him doing that in graded events is that he's done it twice and failed twice, so can you really hold that against him too strongly?
With that said, ALWAYS DREAMING is a play at even money or better. But he's 4/5, and assuming he will win half the time, I have to look for value elsewhere. So, what are the scenarios where he doesn't win? I see basically four without allowing for a fifth as a "fudge factor" of "who the hell knows:
1) CLASSIC EMPIRE proves to just be better and benefits from a better trip/ALWAYS DREAMING is a bit rank early: After a miserable trip in the Kentucky Derby and really a miserable campaign trail, CLASSIC EMPIRE finally has some real bottom in him from the Derby and is primed for a peak performance. While I wouldn't expect him to be sitting quite as close as ALWAYS DREAMING, he figures to sit behind the leaders in 3rd/4th and if ALWAYS DREAMING is more on the muscle and pushes along CONQUEST MO MONEY more than is ideal, they could end up going too fast up front and set it up for CLASSIC EMPIRE's strong closing run. I'll say this is 20% likely.
2) CLOUD COMPUTING puts it all together in his fourth start: After an impressive maiden win at odds on, he jumped straight into the Gotham and pressed a hot pace but stayed on quite well -- he was just a length off the lead but was ultimately only defeated by 3.5 lengths, whereas the rest of the pace competition finished well back (CLOUD COMPUTING beat EL AREEB by another 3.5 lengths). He probably bounced a bit in the Wood. Not being a deep closer should help him, too, as he could be the beneficiary of that garden trip in behind the lead. AND, interestingly, he gets Castellano aboard, who climbs off of GUNNEVERA to ride here. I'll give this 11%.
3) CONQUEST MO MONEY gets brave on the lead: After running his eyeballs out in back to back races, he comes to this race after a month off and is the apparently the sole "true" early speed (although you do have to wonder if he ends up sitting off of ALWAYS DREAMING rather than the other way around). He has never run worse than second and despite doing all the dirty work early in the Arkansas Derby, he put away the other favorites and nearly held off CLASSIC EMPIRE to the wire. If he doesn't get as much pressure in this race due to what everyone else views as a horse that can't go the distance on the lead, could he take it all the way? Of course the answer is probably not, but how about 5% of the time?
4) HENCE shocks everyone and goes to the lead and all hell breaks loose: Yes, you can probably file this under "batshit insane theories," but here's why I think it *could* happen: a) In his last start as a two-year-old, HENCE went to the lead and just narrowly lost a neck decision; in other words, unlike almost all other horses in the field, he's actually run on the lead before. b) Asmussen wants to set things up for LOOKIN AT LEE. Rarely do you see a 12th-place finisher from the Derby run back in the Preakness, but here's HENCE coming back, a horse who was 24-1 in the Southwest back in February and ran seventh in his lone *major* Derby prep (yes, he won the Sunland, but that was a pretty weak field obviously ... although others will tell you the form held up with IRAP winning the Blue Grass and CONQUEST MO MONEY running second in Arkansas, but bear with me here). The most logical explanation is that Asmussen knows the pace will likely be slow if he doesn't do anything about it, and if he has the opportunity to set things up for LOOKIN AT LEE and give HENCE the opportunity to get brave and at least give him a chance to run (since he admittedly did not really get that chance in the Kentucky Derby), it's a win/win. Right? OK, so 2% chance this happens, and that's probably too high anyway, but oh well.
5) Something else random/weird happens: Give me 12% here, because who knows, right? The thing is, most of the late running horses truly do only seem to win when there's a pace meltdown. While I can't see that happening, you never know. SENIOR INVESTMENT and MULTIPLIER, the winners of the Lexington and Illinois Derby, respectively, have both won races that weren't necessarily blistering paces -- and so those are probably the most intriguing. That said, both have major drawbacks: SENIOR INVESTMENT simply hasn't run that fast and hasn't faced nearly this level of competition (his highest class effort was the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, when he ran sixth). MULTIPLIER is more interesting from a visual and speed figure perspective -- he ran a 104 BRIS fig in the Illinois Derby and visually was *flying* late while running down a pace that was pretty pedestrian. That said, his pedigree begs plenty of questions -- the damside is very speed oriented, and THE FACTOR only won once going a route. However, THE FACTOR's offspring have been displaying more WAR FRONT-type stamina, so that is some reason for hope and I do think he's the most likely winner out of the rest of this group.
In terms of wagering based on the morning line, 4/5 on ALWAYS DREAMING is too low for me, as is 3/1 on CLASSIC EMPIRE. In fact, the pure value plays here in my mind are CLOUD COMPUTING and GUNNEVERA.
CLOUD COMPUTING has only run thrice, but he went off at odds of 2/1 in the Wood Memorial and ran a reasonably decent third -- with a BRIS "hidden fraction" of 128 ((E2-E1) + E2). That's quite a bit faster than ALWAYS DREAMING has ever posted, and although he did flatten out pretty badly late, it was again only his third start, and it was likely at least a bit of a bounce from when he posted a 100 speed fig going a route in just his second start in the Gotham. Plus he gets Javier aboard (getting off of GUNNEVERA, of course -- which even despite Javier's relationship with Chad, seems strange to get off of a Derby horse for a horse he's never ridden before) and has posted four near-bullets (two actual bullets) in the past four weeks while working at Belmont (2/32, 1/26, 1/31 and 5/116). Chad has obviously thought very highly of him throughout his career throwing him into a graded stakes race in just his second start, and I think at this point he's as cranked as he could possibly be. At 12/1, he makes a lot of sense when he could sit a nice trip if CLASSIC EMPIRE engages ALWAYS DREAMING early and often.
My case for GUNNEVERA is less solid for sure. For one, I obviously don't think the pace sets up very well for him, and Javier climbing off of him can't bode too tremendously well (trainer relationship or no relationship, Javier wouldn't jump off a horse he thought was clearly superior). On the other hand, he very well may have just detested the off going at Churchill, and getting 15/1 on a horse that was 10/1 in the Derby and favored over ALWAYS DREAMING just two starts back in Florida is too much value to ignore at least with a small saver bet even if I my more logical handicapping self doesn't think it's great -- sometimes when things seem so obvious, it's those straight up value plays that work out the best.
And, finally, I'll make a smaller bet on MULTIPLIER -- but I can't resist my eyes in some of these races, and he looked darn impressive in Illinois.
That said, at the end of the day I had this one closer to pegged than many, and actually I feel I was at least a little bit unlucky to not get *anything*.
Before I get to that, though, ALWAYS DREAMING does deserve plenty of credit -- he got pinned inside a bit at the start, and actually got a huge break when STATE OF HONOR pushed past him and he was able to skip outside. On one hand, yes, that was a break, but on the other, he deserves the credit for having the tactical speed and stop/go ability to get to that hole.
From there, he had a relatively dreamy (pun intended baby!) trip as the pace slowed down. Early pace is always important -- that first half mile is a big deal, no doubt -- but my anecdotal observation has always been that it's the third quarter that makes or breaks a frontrunner. And in the Derby, after 22 and change followed by 46 and change, they got to the 3/4 in 1:11 and change.
That was the break that forwardly placed horses like ALWAYS DREAMING and BATTLE OF MIDWAY (who I need to watch some more to determine what I really think of his race -- this is the second straight race where he stuck around late strongly; does it mean the track was speed favoring or is he just that damn plucky?) needed to conserve some energy when turning for home and turn away threats like IRISH WAR CRY (who frankly may have bled or flipped a palate or something, as Maragh was looking around like he was sitting on a monster and then he stopped hard at the top of the stretch) and even MCCRAKEN, who also made a menacing move but flattened out.
So, as I said prior to the race, there was definitely something in my gut telling me that ALWAYS DREAMING was simply much the best in this class, and this race seemed to mostly confirm that. But between the slow pace in the middle of the race and the slop and the traffic troubles of two other horses in particular -- CLASSIC EMPIRE and TAPWRIT -- I think the jury is still at least a little bit out.
Before I get to CLASSIC EMPIRE and TAPWRIT, however, a nod to LOOKIN AT LEE who we all knew would be coming late -- just not that threateningly! I thought he was the winner at the quarter pole based on the way he skipped along the rail and found open ground, but that was certainly another feather in ALWAYS DREAMING's hat to turn him away. The early word is that they will try LOOKIN AT LEE again in the Preakness, which seems a little silly since he is likely better bred for the Belmont, but on the other hand he does appear to be somewhat of a throwback iron horse with 10 starts already, so why not run him if he's doing well?
With those horses covered, I'll get to another horse with a pretty much perfect trip -- PRACTICAL JOKE. From the No. 19 hole, his trip was an absolute dream, but as Chad Brown has already been on record saying, now we know he just doesn't want to go this far. Which, to me, is maybe a little questionable -- you can't tell me this horse can't win the Indiana Derby or something like that -- but he does seem to have the makings of a CALEB'S POSSE-type miler with that big one-turn mile move. It doesn't sound like he'll contest any more Triple Crown races despite the fifth-place finish.
Finally, in terms of where they finished and what they encountered before doing so, I feel pretty strongly that fourth-place finisher CLASSIC EMPIRE and sixth-place finisher TAPWRIT were at least the second and third best horses in the race. As much as I would love to scream about how right I was with TAPWRIT and that there's no doubt he would have won with a better trip, I can't reasonably do that. If either he or CLASSIC EMPIRE had gotten the LOOKIN AT LEE trip, though? Then we're at least looking at a fight to the finish.
After IRISH WAR CRY took a Bayern-style left-hand turn out of the gate, he immediately squeezed back TAPWRIT (who had Ortiz up in the irons) and bounced into MCCRAKEN, who then walloped CLASSIC EMPIRE. It was a mess, and it's hard to say who got the worst of it. TAPWRIT ended up off balance and further back than I'm sure he would have liked to be (and didn't like the mud going past the line the first time), while CLASSIC EMPIRE got legitimately beat up (apparently he had an eye swollen shut after the race, although they weren't sure if that could be from mud or the collision itself) but was more forwardly placed after the incident.
In any event, TAPWRIT more or less followed CLASSIC EMPIRE the rest of the way around the track, and they encountered most of the same problems as a result -- first going into the far turn when some horses started to bunch up, and then again nearing the top of the stretch -- here CLASSIC EMPIRE went a bit wider while TAPWRIT dove to the rail and started making up some late ground.
And, of course, they covered quite a bit more ground than any of the nigh-perfect trip horses that finished in front of them while closing into a slow-ish pace on a track that was perhaps slightly speed favoring (depending on your read of BATTLE OF MIDWAY). In other words, if and when they run again in this Triple Crown season, CLASSIC EMPIRE and TAPWRIT will be two to watch to topple ALWAYS DREAMING. I'm not convinced either are truly better, but the point is that I don't think we got the opportunity to find out on Saturday.
Maybe the two most disappointing horses due to the way their trips developed yet their stretch runs didn't are the aforementioned IRISH WAR CRY and MCCRAKEN.
You could make some excuse for MCCRAKEN as he did get banged around early and apparently took enough damage that he won't contest any more Triple Crown races, but he still settled into a pretty nice mid-pack trip and moved up on the turn while appearing to be loaded for bear. IRISH WAR CRY did the same thing, perhaps even officially taking the lead at one point, but then ... nothing. They both were empty and one-paced (at best) in the stretch.
GUNNEVERA fell well back again and didn't get the sort of pace meltdown he needed, bottom line. That said, TAPWRIT was in his same neighborhood early, and that one ran on better despite more apparent trouble throughout, so this was certainly a disappointment. He also may have simply not taken to the muddy track.
The only other top ten finisher not covered yet was GORMLEY, who challenged briefly on the turn before falling off similar to IRISH WAR CRY, although not quite so drastically. In any event, it seems clear now that BATTLE OF MIDWAY is a superior horse and only lost the Santa Anita Derby due to that blistering pace.
The bottom ten ... are basically who I thought they were. That's what makes this Derby both a little bit more satisfying and a little bit more frustrating -- other than BATTLE OF MIDWAY holding on as he did, the top 10 made the most sense.
THUNDER SNOW was a laugher, and for him to go off at 16-1 was comical, although maybe not quite as comical as PATCH at 13-1. That one was a Derby public special. PATCH actually secured a decent position early from his post but just didn't have much and feel back on the turn.
HENCE, UNTRAPPED and GIRVIN didn't appear to have any excuses other than simply not being good enough. J BOYS ECHO may have had a bit of a rougher trip, but I'll need to review that again.
The way STATE OF HONOR spit the bit was definitely disappointing but not necessarily surprising given that he went off at 53-1 -- I did think he could be the pluckier frontrunner that BATTLE OF MIDWAY turned out to be, but alas. IRAP, too, appeared to be in good position but offered nothing as he faded behind even FAST AND ACCURATE, who despite the owner's wishes simply wasn't able to get out and get that clean lead -- we knew that could happen, and the jockeyd didn't go all out to get it, and that was that. That only leaves SONNETEER, who they gave the standard line of "didn't handle the track" to, but beyond that, he didn't get the pace you would have wanted him to.
All of that said, here's what I think the finishing order "should have been":
1. ALWAYS DREAMING (a bit begrudgingly as there are still questions, but he was much the best)
2. CLASSIC EMPIRE
3. TAPWRIT
4. BATTLE OF MIDWAY (STATE OF HONOR, IRAP, GORMLEY and IRISH WAR CRY were all forwardly placed and gakked it up late, so this one maybe did offer more than meets the eye)
5. LOOKIN AT LEE (Perfect trip still took a good horse to get the trip
It will be interesting to see what many of these connections decide to do -- so many of these horses offered so little that unless they deduce that the horse "didn't handle the track," I would be hard pressed to run back any of the horses not mentioned above. And if CLASSIC EMPIRE and/or TAPWRIT skip any/both of the races, it sort of feels like we could be looking at another Triple Crown winner (and it will be really interesting to see if Pletcher runs a) BATTALION RUNNER as he could be the biggest monkeywrench left out there for the Preakness or b) TAPWRIT in the Belmont as he should relish that distance. Would a trainer risk busting his own Triple Crown bid?
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With all of the above said, you might be thinking that I'm ready to back up the truck on an ALWAYS DREAMING/CLASSIC EMPIRE all-chalk exacta. And if you do that, I will readily admit that you will probably win for a number of reasons.
1) Derby horses almost always outperform the "new shooters" in the Preakness because they had to be good enough to make it to the Derby in the first place, and the fact that they're continuing on in the Preakness means they continue to be in good form.
So while I can't say to immediately focus only on Derby horses due to that, that leaves us with GUNNEVERA, HENCE, CLASSIC EMPIRE, ALWAYS DREAMING and LOOKIN AT LEE.
However, CLOUD COMPUTING and CONQUEST MO MONEY are a little bit different in that they *could* have run in the Derby, but decided not to. So they have the base and form, but also maybe a little freshness edge.
MULTIPLIER, SENIOR INVESTMENT, TERM OF ART and LANCASTER BOMBER are the four "traditional" new shooters, and would be the knee jerk tosses (and, accordingly, all are extreme longshots).
2) I was against ALWAYS DREAMING in the Derby, but I have to admit that I'm having a hard time seeing how he could lose the Preakness. Based on the apparent lack of pace (five horses -- GUNNEVERA, HENCE, LOOKIN AT LEE, SENIOR INVESTMENT and TERM OF ART -- have 0 early speed points, and two others -- MULTIPLIER and LANCASTER BOMBER -- have just one each), it seems fairly elementary to conclude that ALWAYS DREAMING should be able to sit just off the pace set by CONQUEST MO MONEY, bide his time and draw off in the stretch.
I would have a hard time arguing that ALWAYS DREAMING doesn't win this race at least half the time. He more or less paired speed figures in the Derby after his near-track record Florida Derby, and in theory that means he should be ready for another move forward. Basically the only argument against him in the Preakness would have to be connected to the fact that Todd Pletcher is not at all known for running horses back on short rest ... but I think the official statistic on him doing that in graded events is that he's done it twice and failed twice, so can you really hold that against him too strongly?
With that said, ALWAYS DREAMING is a play at even money or better. But he's 4/5, and assuming he will win half the time, I have to look for value elsewhere. So, what are the scenarios where he doesn't win? I see basically four without allowing for a fifth as a "fudge factor" of "who the hell knows:
1) CLASSIC EMPIRE proves to just be better and benefits from a better trip/ALWAYS DREAMING is a bit rank early: After a miserable trip in the Kentucky Derby and really a miserable campaign trail, CLASSIC EMPIRE finally has some real bottom in him from the Derby and is primed for a peak performance. While I wouldn't expect him to be sitting quite as close as ALWAYS DREAMING, he figures to sit behind the leaders in 3rd/4th and if ALWAYS DREAMING is more on the muscle and pushes along CONQUEST MO MONEY more than is ideal, they could end up going too fast up front and set it up for CLASSIC EMPIRE's strong closing run. I'll say this is 20% likely.
2) CLOUD COMPUTING puts it all together in his fourth start: After an impressive maiden win at odds on, he jumped straight into the Gotham and pressed a hot pace but stayed on quite well -- he was just a length off the lead but was ultimately only defeated by 3.5 lengths, whereas the rest of the pace competition finished well back (CLOUD COMPUTING beat EL AREEB by another 3.5 lengths). He probably bounced a bit in the Wood. Not being a deep closer should help him, too, as he could be the beneficiary of that garden trip in behind the lead. AND, interestingly, he gets Castellano aboard, who climbs off of GUNNEVERA to ride here. I'll give this 11%.
3) CONQUEST MO MONEY gets brave on the lead: After running his eyeballs out in back to back races, he comes to this race after a month off and is the apparently the sole "true" early speed (although you do have to wonder if he ends up sitting off of ALWAYS DREAMING rather than the other way around). He has never run worse than second and despite doing all the dirty work early in the Arkansas Derby, he put away the other favorites and nearly held off CLASSIC EMPIRE to the wire. If he doesn't get as much pressure in this race due to what everyone else views as a horse that can't go the distance on the lead, could he take it all the way? Of course the answer is probably not, but how about 5% of the time?
4) HENCE shocks everyone and goes to the lead and all hell breaks loose: Yes, you can probably file this under "batshit insane theories," but here's why I think it *could* happen: a) In his last start as a two-year-old, HENCE went to the lead and just narrowly lost a neck decision; in other words, unlike almost all other horses in the field, he's actually run on the lead before. b) Asmussen wants to set things up for LOOKIN AT LEE. Rarely do you see a 12th-place finisher from the Derby run back in the Preakness, but here's HENCE coming back, a horse who was 24-1 in the Southwest back in February and ran seventh in his lone *major* Derby prep (yes, he won the Sunland, but that was a pretty weak field obviously ... although others will tell you the form held up with IRAP winning the Blue Grass and CONQUEST MO MONEY running second in Arkansas, but bear with me here). The most logical explanation is that Asmussen knows the pace will likely be slow if he doesn't do anything about it, and if he has the opportunity to set things up for LOOKIN AT LEE and give HENCE the opportunity to get brave and at least give him a chance to run (since he admittedly did not really get that chance in the Kentucky Derby), it's a win/win. Right? OK, so 2% chance this happens, and that's probably too high anyway, but oh well.
5) Something else random/weird happens: Give me 12% here, because who knows, right? The thing is, most of the late running horses truly do only seem to win when there's a pace meltdown. While I can't see that happening, you never know. SENIOR INVESTMENT and MULTIPLIER, the winners of the Lexington and Illinois Derby, respectively, have both won races that weren't necessarily blistering paces -- and so those are probably the most intriguing. That said, both have major drawbacks: SENIOR INVESTMENT simply hasn't run that fast and hasn't faced nearly this level of competition (his highest class effort was the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, when he ran sixth). MULTIPLIER is more interesting from a visual and speed figure perspective -- he ran a 104 BRIS fig in the Illinois Derby and visually was *flying* late while running down a pace that was pretty pedestrian. That said, his pedigree begs plenty of questions -- the damside is very speed oriented, and THE FACTOR only won once going a route. However, THE FACTOR's offspring have been displaying more WAR FRONT-type stamina, so that is some reason for hope and I do think he's the most likely winner out of the rest of this group.
In terms of wagering based on the morning line, 4/5 on ALWAYS DREAMING is too low for me, as is 3/1 on CLASSIC EMPIRE. In fact, the pure value plays here in my mind are CLOUD COMPUTING and GUNNEVERA.
CLOUD COMPUTING has only run thrice, but he went off at odds of 2/1 in the Wood Memorial and ran a reasonably decent third -- with a BRIS "hidden fraction" of 128 ((E2-E1) + E2). That's quite a bit faster than ALWAYS DREAMING has ever posted, and although he did flatten out pretty badly late, it was again only his third start, and it was likely at least a bit of a bounce from when he posted a 100 speed fig going a route in just his second start in the Gotham. Plus he gets Javier aboard (getting off of GUNNEVERA, of course -- which even despite Javier's relationship with Chad, seems strange to get off of a Derby horse for a horse he's never ridden before) and has posted four near-bullets (two actual bullets) in the past four weeks while working at Belmont (2/32, 1/26, 1/31 and 5/116). Chad has obviously thought very highly of him throughout his career throwing him into a graded stakes race in just his second start, and I think at this point he's as cranked as he could possibly be. At 12/1, he makes a lot of sense when he could sit a nice trip if CLASSIC EMPIRE engages ALWAYS DREAMING early and often.
My case for GUNNEVERA is less solid for sure. For one, I obviously don't think the pace sets up very well for him, and Javier climbing off of him can't bode too tremendously well (trainer relationship or no relationship, Javier wouldn't jump off a horse he thought was clearly superior). On the other hand, he very well may have just detested the off going at Churchill, and getting 15/1 on a horse that was 10/1 in the Derby and favored over ALWAYS DREAMING just two starts back in Florida is too much value to ignore at least with a small saver bet even if I my more logical handicapping self doesn't think it's great -- sometimes when things seem so obvious, it's those straight up value plays that work out the best.
And, finally, I'll make a smaller bet on MULTIPLIER -- but I can't resist my eyes in some of these races, and he looked darn impressive in Illinois.