breeders' cup friday
The Breeders' Cup gives me writer's block.
When I first admitted this to myself, I was actually a bit embarrassed. I mean, this is the BREEDERS' CUP we're talking about -- something that I quite honestly probably think about every single day in the course of a given year! (Please don't judge me.) I handicap about 10,000 thoroughbred races a year and have seen almost every single horse running in the 13 Breeders' Cup races run live at least once, and yet I can't decide where to start? I get paid at least partially because of my writing skills and my ability to conjure a message that interests or moves ... and yet when it comes to my greatest passion, I'm empty? Really?
So I went through a brief period of self-loathing that naturally accompanies all instances of writer's block, and then I realized something that made me feel much better: It's hard to write about the Breeders' Cup because it's hard to figure out the Breeders' Cup, and that's kind of the point.
In short: Writing about the Breeders' Cup is hard, but I wouldn't want it any other way.
With that said, if you're one of the four or five people who have read my horse racing previews in the past, you'll notice that I'm not doing the blow-by-blow breakdown of every horse by post position in every race. It doesn't do me a lot of good to spend the time even typing three sentences on a certain juvenile horse that I truly don't know anything about but also that I have nothing good to say about.
Instead, what I'll be doing here is listing A-B-C-X horses. One thing I've found is a problem for myself is that I'll write a 15-page preview that has a lot of great info ... but when it's five minutes to post, I still haven't figured out how I'm going to bet the race. So this step is more for me than it is for the reader, although I do think it will also serve as a more "at-a-glance" preview on how I think the race will play out.
(If you're not familiar with this method, A horses are primary contenders, likely winners or horses that are going to offer spectacular betting value. Sometimes an A horse may be a "play against" horse at even money, for instance, but that doesn't change the fact that he's still the most likely winner of the race. B horses are reasonable contenders or the most likely to win if the A horses do not win. C horses are unlikely winners but that I don't feel entirely uncomfortable dismissing entirely. Of course, that means X horses are horses that I think simply can't win for a variety of reasons (but if you're thinking about trifectas or superfectas, they could be reasonable inclusions.))
So, with all that said ... here goes:
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Race 6, post time 4:25 Central
Yeah, wow. This race is nearly impossible by my estimation, as I give no horse better than a 12.3 percent chance to win and only two horses a less than 3 percent chance.
A: 4, 6, 10, 11, 13
The most likely winners are No. 11 GOOD SAMARITAN and No. 13 OSCAR PERFORMANCE. GOOD SAMARITAN has done nothing wrong in winning his first two starts, is well-bred and deserves to be favored. But he'll have to secure a good trip from a wide post, and with 14 horses in the field and his late-running style, a lot will have to go right to get up in time. OSCAR PERFORMANCE also breaks from post 13 but should theoretically be more likely to secure at least a clean trip with his front-running style -- but of course Jose Ortiz will have to use some of his horse early to get there. He's actually bred to go much longer and is shortening up after running 1 1/6 miles in each of his first three starts, but he appears to have speed to burn so that shouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
No. 6 BIG SCORE comes in off a win in the Zuma Beach after making a very nice middle move into a strong pace. Flavien Prat is just about a must-play on turf at this point, and while the pedigree on this one doesn't appear that strong, that middle move was so impressive that he deserves consideration here.
As for longer shots, No. 4 FAVORABLE OUTCOME will probably not go off at 15/1 in his turf debut, but he's a definite play if he's anywhere close to that. He ran third in the Grade 1 Champagne at odds of 2.5-1. I wouldn't say he has the best turf pedigree in the world, but it's not bad and the caliber of the horses here would seem to be less than that which he faced in the Champagne. Of some concern is that Javier Castellano opted to stick with MADE YOU LOOK instead of this one, but Irad Ortiz Jr. gets aboard for Chad Brown, who obviously knows how to win on the lawn. No. 10 BOWIE'S HERO would be 5-1 if he hadn't run a no-show eighth as the favorite in the Zuma Beach last-out. He appears to offer value at 10/1 or higher.
B: 1, 5, 8, 9, 12, 14
No. 1 LANCASTER BOMBER is taking a pretty significant drop in class into this spot after running second to the very impressive CHURCHILL last-out at Newmarket on Oct. 8. On the other hand, he was 66-1 in that race, so it's not as if he is necessarily a world-beater coming over. He could win and I wouldn't want to let him beat me in a pick X, but I don't see it very much.
No. 5 MADE YOU LOOK moves solidly up in class here for Castellano and Todd Pletcher. He's been ... generally OK. The bottom line is that the morning line appears about right here.
No. 8 INTELLIGENCE CROSS is the better O'Brien entrant in my eyes -- he's won a group 3 and narrowly missed in a group 2 back in late-July. Ryan Moore is the one jockey who always beats me when I bet against him and always gives me a bum ride when I'm on him, so ... who knows what we'll get here.
The biggest question to me is not whether No. 9 WELLABLED can take to the grass -- although his only loss in four career starts is on the grass (he's 3-for-3 on synthetics), he acquitted himself well on the lawn at Saratoga on Aug. 19 in a narrow loss. No, my biggest concern is stretching that speed he has to a mile. His sire, SHACKLEFORD, was able to do it, but can he? If he goes off at higher than 20/1 he's more of a play, but here again, the morning line seems about right.
In some respects, No. 12 RODAINI looks to be a better bet than either of his other Euro compatriots, particularly at 15/1 on the morning line. He has won 3-of-4 starts to date and was a $508,000 purchase. On the other hand, he finished 24 lengths back in his last start as he stepped up into group competition. So ... who knows.
Finally, No. 14 TICONDEROGA has been favored (admittedly against lesser competition) in all three of his starts today, winning one. Bejarano rides for Brown as this $850,000 purchase tries to put it all together on the biggest stage -- the sky could be the limit.
C: 2
No. 2 KEEP QUIET won the Grade 3 Bourbon and was second in the Grade 2 With Anticipation, but those were not particularly strong fields and he hasn't run fast enough to make you think the move up will go all that well. Additionally, the pedigree is much more suspect than most here. And yet, you'd hate to let him beat you entirely.
X: 3, 7
No. 3 CHANNEL MAKER ran well in the Grade 3 Summer at Woodbine, and frankly 30/1 might be a smidge of an overlay ... but you have to draw the line somewhere (unless you want to play ALL, of course), and I don't think he wins this race more than a couple out of a hundred tries. No. 7 J.S. CHOICE really doesn't make me want to play him much at all other than the fact that he's a Pletcher horse being ridden by Desormeaux ... but this is the Breeders' Cup. They're all good trainers and they're all good jockeys, and this horse just doesn't appear to belong in this spot.
\
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Race 7, post time 5:05 p.m. Central
I'm stuck between two general ways to look at this race (thereby creating a third way, I suppose): One is to say that DORTMUND towers over the field in class and ability at this distance, and that everyone else is running for second. The other is to say that almost all of these horses have exhibited the ability to win this race on their best day, and that any of them could win it. I'm mostly in the former camp, but I do like a longer shot or two to outrun their odds.
A: 3
Yep, I'm singling No. 3 DORTMUND on a caveman-style ticket here. Yes, you can make the case for most of the other horses, but DORTMUND's case is basically without holes whereas the rest of the field is full of question marks. The only races that DORTMUND has lost were won by AMERICAN PHAROAH or CALIFORNIA CHROME. He'll appreciate shortening up and gets Martin Garcia back aboard, and I just think this is the stand I'm most comfortable taking in the entire Breeders' Cup.
B: 2, 7
The case for No. 7 RUNHAPPY is pretty obvious -- he's the defending Breeders' Cup Sprint champion, he has run speed figures rivaling DORTMUND on his best days, and he gets Gary Stevens back aboard (all respect to Edgar Prado, but Gary Stevens is Gary Stevens). On the other hand ... he only ran once this year, a lackluster fourth in the Ack Ack on Oct. 1, he's been training, um, inconsistently, and his current trainer seems like a complete idiot as far as I can tell. So, to be clear, I'm not betting him at all, but that doesn't really change the fact that I think he's probably the main rival to DORTMUND and could be the biggest detriment to him if he flies early and makes DORTMUND run faster than he wants to.
The case for No. 2 TOM'S READY is probably not so apparent, but he is perfect at this mile distance and was a revelation when winning the Woody Stephens from well off the pace. He had no chance when they walked in the King's Bishop, and of course he won the Ack Ack last-out while closing into a pace that didn't necessarily aid that late kick all that much. My feeling is if he gets the pace to run into again tomorrow, he might be the main late threat. My main concern would be that this is a two-turn mile configuration versus the one-turn configuration that he's thrived on previously, but he was good enough going two turns to make the Derby earlier this year, and obviously he'll have matured since then and has a decent chance to spring the upset here.
C: 5, 8
I would almost consider No. 5 ACCELERATE a "B" horse if I didn't feel so strongly about DORTMUND to begin with. I like ACCELERATE more than GUN RUNNER, for instance, even if their odds were the exact same (and ACCELERATE is 20/1 vs. 9/2 on GUN RUNNER). ACCELERATE has won three straight races, has a nice pedigree (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of an AWESOME AGAIN mare) and should sit a nice trip in behind the speed. Is he good enough at this level? We don't have any idea, really, but he gives the impression of a classy horse with the ability to spring the shocker here.
I backed up the truck on No. 8 TAMARKUZ in the Met Mile and Forego -- of course, he disappointed in both, which particularly stung when running second in the Forego at odds of 20/1. He really had no excuse to not go by there, and that's kind of his thing at this point -- he hasn't won since March 2015. He has run each of his six races since then at either seven or eight furlongs, and his only finishes better than fourth were his last two. I just don't think he can get the job done here, but his speed figures have been improving again and he could be sitting on a big effort finally, so it's a maybe.
X: 1, 4, 6, 9
No. 1 VYJACK is running on what I would say is not his best surface despite winning the Kelso a few years ago on dirt. He ran big enough in the Pat O'Brien to be somewhat considered, but the odds are he was towed around by MASOCHISTIC to that big speed figure and there was nothing more to it -- remember, that was only a three-horse race, so his second-place finish isn't much to write home about.
No. 4 POINT PIPER's only win in his last ten starts came at Emerald Downs. His speed figures seem to make him semi-competitive -- and it is worth noting that he was only beaten by 1.75 lengths by DORTMUND at this distance last October at Santa Anita -- but still. Easy enough to toss.
No. 6 TEXAS CHROME has been beating up on the C division of 3-year-olds. He's a hard runner and has won three straight, but he moves up in class here sharply and has really won due to some favorable pace scenarios.
No. 9 GUN RUNNER is probably the one that will shock people here, but I don't see how he wins. He's not going to the lead and walking the dog like he did in his last win, the Matt Winn at Churchill. If they go fast up front, someone will run by him in the stretch. If they don't, he won't catch them. If he's head and head with another mid-pack sitter like TAMARKUZ, I think the older horse has the class edge and advantage of not running seven times since Feb. 20 with no layoff. I know he keeps running well and you're probably an idiot for not using him in an exacta or trifecta, but I think he'll be significantly underlaid in the win pool.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: Race 8, 5:50 p.m. Central
For one thing, this field seems a decent bit stronger than the open division run 85 minutes earlier -- there are a handful of horses who I think might win that race. With that said, it's still a wide-open race, although it might mostly be wide-open among the European contenders.
A: 1, 4, 13
Part of me wanted to single No. 1 HYDRANGEA, but I like the others enough to throw them in as A's, as well. HYDRANGEA has run second against tougher in three consecutive races, and while it's a bit silly and simplistic, whenever you see a son or daughter of GALILEO in America on the turf, you could do a lot worse than simply betting it blindly. She's been running at 7 furlongs to a mile, so while she might want to go longer some day, right now this seems to be in her wheelhouse.
No. 4 SPAIN BURG was a nearly $1.7 million purchase and has won 4-of-5 starts. She's a bit of a mystery having only made one start outside of France, but she won that one start and may just tower over these at the end of the day.
Finally, No. 13 ROLY POLY has won a group 3, a group 2, and ran second in a group 1 race at six furlongs dating back to June. Stretching out wouldn't appear to be a problem based on pedigree, but maybe there's a reason O'Brien hasn't run her at a route yet? Either way, she's clearly a strong contender.
B: 6, 7, 14
I truly almost made No. 6 COASTED an A horse and do think she's the best bet in the race at anything close to that 20/1 morning line. While this is clearly a step up in class for her, she may have just not liked the yielding turf last-out and is undefeated on a firm lawn. Mike Smith climbs aboard and she should be 10/1, not 20/1.
No. 7 INTRICATELY beat HYDRANGEA in their last race, and it does feel a bit silly to not include her as an obvious contender here. But INTRICATELY was 25/1 in that race and HYDRANGEA was stuck setting the pace, so I'm not convinced by one result.
I'm honestly not particularly enamored with the chances of No. 14 LA CORONEL, but I can't deny that she ran huge in the Jessamine and is strictly speaking the most probable American winner. I won't bet her, but she could just simply be that good.
C: 3, 10
It's a little bit hard to put No. 3 NEW MONEY HONEY down here as a C when you've got Chad Brown and Javier Castellano, but that Ms. Grillo win on yielding turf is hard to trust as meaning anything. I just think the Euros are going to prove to be quite a bit better.
No. 10 HAPPY MESA is here against my better judgment -- I don't give her a great chance of winning to be completely honest, but it's her second start for Graham Motion and she ran second despite the jock losing the whip in the stretch last-out, so he may be able to move her up a little bit more.
X: 2, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12
No. 2 LULL has run pretty well for Christophe Clement but moves up significantly in class here without Lasix. She's the one I would feel worst about leaving off, along with No. 8 MADAM DANCEALOT as she seems to potentially be coming into her own, winning a group 3 at odds of 10-1 last-out at Salisbury.
Breeders' Cup Distaff: Race 9, 6:35 p.m.
There are two obvious tosses in this race. Beyond that ... pick your poison. Sure, there's an apparent "big three," but the "other three" are plenty appealing at bigger prices. What a puzzle. I don't often try to predict pace anymore -- it's usually just as hard to predict pace as it is to predict the winner -- but I do think this race will hinge upon what BEHOLDER and I'MACHATTERBOX do. Those two would appear to be the main speed aside from SONGBIRD, and unless one of them goes with her -- and not just "with her," but really to push her along -- this race might be over at the half-mile pole.
A: 1
No. 1 SONGBIRD is 11-for-11 and has absolutely demolished every horse she's faced. She's a single to me because while I don't know if I can predict the pace, I also think it might not matter -- she might be good enough to turn away even a reasonably fierce pace challenge! The big question for her, of course, is if she has really beaten any horse of true quality in her 11 wins. This is no doubt the toughest field she's face, but CATHRYN SOPHIA and CARINA MIA are plenty legit -- and she has beaten them like a drum repeatedly.
B: 6, 8
I do believe that No. 8 BEHOLDER is the most likely winner other than SONGBIRD. While she has finished second in three straight races, one of those was to CALIFORNIA CHROME and the other were in a very tough position against STELLAR WIND. Additionally, her speed figures in those races were every bit as good as she was in all but one race of her winning streak (that one race being the Pacific Classic when she ran her eyeballs out. So, while I do somewhat subscribe to the idea that mares do hit a wall at a given point when they get older, I'm not sure the simple act of running second means she's hit that. She should get a better target to run at than she's had in a while, and that's exactly what she had in that Pacific Classic romp. This isn't a strong opinion on BEHOLDER, but I think she very well might have something left in the tank to teach the heir to her throne one final lesson.
On the other hand, No. 6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED is a combination of a pace handicapper's delight and a gut play. She clearly made "the leap" entering her 4-year-old season, winning the Apple Blossom back in April before putting in strong bids in the Ogden Phipps and Personal Ensign and then claiming another Grade 1 in the Beldame. What I think is so interesting about this horse is that she brings it every time and would seem to be the biggest beneficiary of any potential pace duels that occur with this group. And, back to the point that it's hard to predict pace, she's run so well this year despite ever getting a truly nice pace to close into. In fact, every single one of her races this year has been run more slowly than average for that class at the h. If the Distaff goes 3/4 in less than 1:10, look out for Rosario from the back of the pack.
C: 3, 5
The one knock on No. 3 CURALINA (I suppose, anyway -- it's hard to come up with negatives on these horses) is that she has only won twice since July 2015, and in both of those she sat just off of slow paces and was able to draw off by open lengths. It's almost impossible to imagine that happening here, and however consistent she in running in the money, it's hard to bet much on the idea of her outdueling one of these in the stretch when she always seems to fail to do that. On the other hand ... 12/1! The only time in that aforementioned span that she's been greater than 3/1 was in last year's Distaff, when she ran third at 9/1. So, yeah. I might throw down a few bucks just based on the value even if the conviction is not necessarily there.
I am simply not enamored with No. 5 STELLAR WIND. Yes, she won two match races (because that's really all that they were -- in both cases, third place was 10 lengths back) with BEHOLDER this summer/fall, but she had the tactical advantage of sitting off of BEHOLDER in both cases. Her race in last year's Distaff was *much* more impressive to me, and yet she didn't win that one. The theory here, basically, is that she hasn't won a real horse race against this caliber of competition yet.
I like No. 7 I'M A CHATTERBOX, but she had absolutely no excuse in the Personal Ensign for coughing up the lead late against a field of similar caliber ... except not quite as good as this. The Spinster win in her last-out was probably the toughest field she's beaten outright, and that just doesn't seem good enough against these. And yet ... 12/1!
X: 2-4
My jaw would fall to the center of the Earth if No. 2 LAND OVER SEA upset this field. No. 4 CORONA DEL INCA is more of an upside mystery making her first start in America, but would still be such a shock against this group.
When I first admitted this to myself, I was actually a bit embarrassed. I mean, this is the BREEDERS' CUP we're talking about -- something that I quite honestly probably think about every single day in the course of a given year! (Please don't judge me.) I handicap about 10,000 thoroughbred races a year and have seen almost every single horse running in the 13 Breeders' Cup races run live at least once, and yet I can't decide where to start? I get paid at least partially because of my writing skills and my ability to conjure a message that interests or moves ... and yet when it comes to my greatest passion, I'm empty? Really?
So I went through a brief period of self-loathing that naturally accompanies all instances of writer's block, and then I realized something that made me feel much better: It's hard to write about the Breeders' Cup because it's hard to figure out the Breeders' Cup, and that's kind of the point.
In short: Writing about the Breeders' Cup is hard, but I wouldn't want it any other way.
With that said, if you're one of the four or five people who have read my horse racing previews in the past, you'll notice that I'm not doing the blow-by-blow breakdown of every horse by post position in every race. It doesn't do me a lot of good to spend the time even typing three sentences on a certain juvenile horse that I truly don't know anything about but also that I have nothing good to say about.
Instead, what I'll be doing here is listing A-B-C-X horses. One thing I've found is a problem for myself is that I'll write a 15-page preview that has a lot of great info ... but when it's five minutes to post, I still haven't figured out how I'm going to bet the race. So this step is more for me than it is for the reader, although I do think it will also serve as a more "at-a-glance" preview on how I think the race will play out.
(If you're not familiar with this method, A horses are primary contenders, likely winners or horses that are going to offer spectacular betting value. Sometimes an A horse may be a "play against" horse at even money, for instance, but that doesn't change the fact that he's still the most likely winner of the race. B horses are reasonable contenders or the most likely to win if the A horses do not win. C horses are unlikely winners but that I don't feel entirely uncomfortable dismissing entirely. Of course, that means X horses are horses that I think simply can't win for a variety of reasons (but if you're thinking about trifectas or superfectas, they could be reasonable inclusions.))
So, with all that said ... here goes:
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf: Race 6, post time 4:25 Central
Yeah, wow. This race is nearly impossible by my estimation, as I give no horse better than a 12.3 percent chance to win and only two horses a less than 3 percent chance.
A: 4, 6, 10, 11, 13
The most likely winners are No. 11 GOOD SAMARITAN and No. 13 OSCAR PERFORMANCE. GOOD SAMARITAN has done nothing wrong in winning his first two starts, is well-bred and deserves to be favored. But he'll have to secure a good trip from a wide post, and with 14 horses in the field and his late-running style, a lot will have to go right to get up in time. OSCAR PERFORMANCE also breaks from post 13 but should theoretically be more likely to secure at least a clean trip with his front-running style -- but of course Jose Ortiz will have to use some of his horse early to get there. He's actually bred to go much longer and is shortening up after running 1 1/6 miles in each of his first three starts, but he appears to have speed to burn so that shouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.
No. 6 BIG SCORE comes in off a win in the Zuma Beach after making a very nice middle move into a strong pace. Flavien Prat is just about a must-play on turf at this point, and while the pedigree on this one doesn't appear that strong, that middle move was so impressive that he deserves consideration here.
As for longer shots, No. 4 FAVORABLE OUTCOME will probably not go off at 15/1 in his turf debut, but he's a definite play if he's anywhere close to that. He ran third in the Grade 1 Champagne at odds of 2.5-1. I wouldn't say he has the best turf pedigree in the world, but it's not bad and the caliber of the horses here would seem to be less than that which he faced in the Champagne. Of some concern is that Javier Castellano opted to stick with MADE YOU LOOK instead of this one, but Irad Ortiz Jr. gets aboard for Chad Brown, who obviously knows how to win on the lawn. No. 10 BOWIE'S HERO would be 5-1 if he hadn't run a no-show eighth as the favorite in the Zuma Beach last-out. He appears to offer value at 10/1 or higher.
B: 1, 5, 8, 9, 12, 14
No. 1 LANCASTER BOMBER is taking a pretty significant drop in class into this spot after running second to the very impressive CHURCHILL last-out at Newmarket on Oct. 8. On the other hand, he was 66-1 in that race, so it's not as if he is necessarily a world-beater coming over. He could win and I wouldn't want to let him beat me in a pick X, but I don't see it very much.
No. 5 MADE YOU LOOK moves solidly up in class here for Castellano and Todd Pletcher. He's been ... generally OK. The bottom line is that the morning line appears about right here.
No. 8 INTELLIGENCE CROSS is the better O'Brien entrant in my eyes -- he's won a group 3 and narrowly missed in a group 2 back in late-July. Ryan Moore is the one jockey who always beats me when I bet against him and always gives me a bum ride when I'm on him, so ... who knows what we'll get here.
The biggest question to me is not whether No. 9 WELLABLED can take to the grass -- although his only loss in four career starts is on the grass (he's 3-for-3 on synthetics), he acquitted himself well on the lawn at Saratoga on Aug. 19 in a narrow loss. No, my biggest concern is stretching that speed he has to a mile. His sire, SHACKLEFORD, was able to do it, but can he? If he goes off at higher than 20/1 he's more of a play, but here again, the morning line seems about right.
In some respects, No. 12 RODAINI looks to be a better bet than either of his other Euro compatriots, particularly at 15/1 on the morning line. He has won 3-of-4 starts to date and was a $508,000 purchase. On the other hand, he finished 24 lengths back in his last start as he stepped up into group competition. So ... who knows.
Finally, No. 14 TICONDEROGA has been favored (admittedly against lesser competition) in all three of his starts today, winning one. Bejarano rides for Brown as this $850,000 purchase tries to put it all together on the biggest stage -- the sky could be the limit.
C: 2
No. 2 KEEP QUIET won the Grade 3 Bourbon and was second in the Grade 2 With Anticipation, but those were not particularly strong fields and he hasn't run fast enough to make you think the move up will go all that well. Additionally, the pedigree is much more suspect than most here. And yet, you'd hate to let him beat you entirely.
X: 3, 7
No. 3 CHANNEL MAKER ran well in the Grade 3 Summer at Woodbine, and frankly 30/1 might be a smidge of an overlay ... but you have to draw the line somewhere (unless you want to play ALL, of course), and I don't think he wins this race more than a couple out of a hundred tries. No. 7 J.S. CHOICE really doesn't make me want to play him much at all other than the fact that he's a Pletcher horse being ridden by Desormeaux ... but this is the Breeders' Cup. They're all good trainers and they're all good jockeys, and this horse just doesn't appear to belong in this spot.
\
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile: Race 7, post time 5:05 p.m. Central
I'm stuck between two general ways to look at this race (thereby creating a third way, I suppose): One is to say that DORTMUND towers over the field in class and ability at this distance, and that everyone else is running for second. The other is to say that almost all of these horses have exhibited the ability to win this race on their best day, and that any of them could win it. I'm mostly in the former camp, but I do like a longer shot or two to outrun their odds.
A: 3
Yep, I'm singling No. 3 DORTMUND on a caveman-style ticket here. Yes, you can make the case for most of the other horses, but DORTMUND's case is basically without holes whereas the rest of the field is full of question marks. The only races that DORTMUND has lost were won by AMERICAN PHAROAH or CALIFORNIA CHROME. He'll appreciate shortening up and gets Martin Garcia back aboard, and I just think this is the stand I'm most comfortable taking in the entire Breeders' Cup.
B: 2, 7
The case for No. 7 RUNHAPPY is pretty obvious -- he's the defending Breeders' Cup Sprint champion, he has run speed figures rivaling DORTMUND on his best days, and he gets Gary Stevens back aboard (all respect to Edgar Prado, but Gary Stevens is Gary Stevens). On the other hand ... he only ran once this year, a lackluster fourth in the Ack Ack on Oct. 1, he's been training, um, inconsistently, and his current trainer seems like a complete idiot as far as I can tell. So, to be clear, I'm not betting him at all, but that doesn't really change the fact that I think he's probably the main rival to DORTMUND and could be the biggest detriment to him if he flies early and makes DORTMUND run faster than he wants to.
The case for No. 2 TOM'S READY is probably not so apparent, but he is perfect at this mile distance and was a revelation when winning the Woody Stephens from well off the pace. He had no chance when they walked in the King's Bishop, and of course he won the Ack Ack last-out while closing into a pace that didn't necessarily aid that late kick all that much. My feeling is if he gets the pace to run into again tomorrow, he might be the main late threat. My main concern would be that this is a two-turn mile configuration versus the one-turn configuration that he's thrived on previously, but he was good enough going two turns to make the Derby earlier this year, and obviously he'll have matured since then and has a decent chance to spring the upset here.
C: 5, 8
I would almost consider No. 5 ACCELERATE a "B" horse if I didn't feel so strongly about DORTMUND to begin with. I like ACCELERATE more than GUN RUNNER, for instance, even if their odds were the exact same (and ACCELERATE is 20/1 vs. 9/2 on GUN RUNNER). ACCELERATE has won three straight races, has a nice pedigree (by LOOKIN AT LUCKY out of an AWESOME AGAIN mare) and should sit a nice trip in behind the speed. Is he good enough at this level? We don't have any idea, really, but he gives the impression of a classy horse with the ability to spring the shocker here.
I backed up the truck on No. 8 TAMARKUZ in the Met Mile and Forego -- of course, he disappointed in both, which particularly stung when running second in the Forego at odds of 20/1. He really had no excuse to not go by there, and that's kind of his thing at this point -- he hasn't won since March 2015. He has run each of his six races since then at either seven or eight furlongs, and his only finishes better than fourth were his last two. I just don't think he can get the job done here, but his speed figures have been improving again and he could be sitting on a big effort finally, so it's a maybe.
X: 1, 4, 6, 9
No. 1 VYJACK is running on what I would say is not his best surface despite winning the Kelso a few years ago on dirt. He ran big enough in the Pat O'Brien to be somewhat considered, but the odds are he was towed around by MASOCHISTIC to that big speed figure and there was nothing more to it -- remember, that was only a three-horse race, so his second-place finish isn't much to write home about.
No. 4 POINT PIPER's only win in his last ten starts came at Emerald Downs. His speed figures seem to make him semi-competitive -- and it is worth noting that he was only beaten by 1.75 lengths by DORTMUND at this distance last October at Santa Anita -- but still. Easy enough to toss.
No. 6 TEXAS CHROME has been beating up on the C division of 3-year-olds. He's a hard runner and has won three straight, but he moves up in class here sharply and has really won due to some favorable pace scenarios.
No. 9 GUN RUNNER is probably the one that will shock people here, but I don't see how he wins. He's not going to the lead and walking the dog like he did in his last win, the Matt Winn at Churchill. If they go fast up front, someone will run by him in the stretch. If they don't, he won't catch them. If he's head and head with another mid-pack sitter like TAMARKUZ, I think the older horse has the class edge and advantage of not running seven times since Feb. 20 with no layoff. I know he keeps running well and you're probably an idiot for not using him in an exacta or trifecta, but I think he'll be significantly underlaid in the win pool.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: Race 8, 5:50 p.m. Central
For one thing, this field seems a decent bit stronger than the open division run 85 minutes earlier -- there are a handful of horses who I think might win that race. With that said, it's still a wide-open race, although it might mostly be wide-open among the European contenders.
A: 1, 4, 13
Part of me wanted to single No. 1 HYDRANGEA, but I like the others enough to throw them in as A's, as well. HYDRANGEA has run second against tougher in three consecutive races, and while it's a bit silly and simplistic, whenever you see a son or daughter of GALILEO in America on the turf, you could do a lot worse than simply betting it blindly. She's been running at 7 furlongs to a mile, so while she might want to go longer some day, right now this seems to be in her wheelhouse.
No. 4 SPAIN BURG was a nearly $1.7 million purchase and has won 4-of-5 starts. She's a bit of a mystery having only made one start outside of France, but she won that one start and may just tower over these at the end of the day.
Finally, No. 13 ROLY POLY has won a group 3, a group 2, and ran second in a group 1 race at six furlongs dating back to June. Stretching out wouldn't appear to be a problem based on pedigree, but maybe there's a reason O'Brien hasn't run her at a route yet? Either way, she's clearly a strong contender.
B: 6, 7, 14
I truly almost made No. 6 COASTED an A horse and do think she's the best bet in the race at anything close to that 20/1 morning line. While this is clearly a step up in class for her, she may have just not liked the yielding turf last-out and is undefeated on a firm lawn. Mike Smith climbs aboard and she should be 10/1, not 20/1.
No. 7 INTRICATELY beat HYDRANGEA in their last race, and it does feel a bit silly to not include her as an obvious contender here. But INTRICATELY was 25/1 in that race and HYDRANGEA was stuck setting the pace, so I'm not convinced by one result.
I'm honestly not particularly enamored with the chances of No. 14 LA CORONEL, but I can't deny that she ran huge in the Jessamine and is strictly speaking the most probable American winner. I won't bet her, but she could just simply be that good.
C: 3, 10
It's a little bit hard to put No. 3 NEW MONEY HONEY down here as a C when you've got Chad Brown and Javier Castellano, but that Ms. Grillo win on yielding turf is hard to trust as meaning anything. I just think the Euros are going to prove to be quite a bit better.
No. 10 HAPPY MESA is here against my better judgment -- I don't give her a great chance of winning to be completely honest, but it's her second start for Graham Motion and she ran second despite the jock losing the whip in the stretch last-out, so he may be able to move her up a little bit more.
X: 2, 5, 8, 9, 11, 12
No. 2 LULL has run pretty well for Christophe Clement but moves up significantly in class here without Lasix. She's the one I would feel worst about leaving off, along with No. 8 MADAM DANCEALOT as she seems to potentially be coming into her own, winning a group 3 at odds of 10-1 last-out at Salisbury.
Breeders' Cup Distaff: Race 9, 6:35 p.m.
There are two obvious tosses in this race. Beyond that ... pick your poison. Sure, there's an apparent "big three," but the "other three" are plenty appealing at bigger prices. What a puzzle. I don't often try to predict pace anymore -- it's usually just as hard to predict pace as it is to predict the winner -- but I do think this race will hinge upon what BEHOLDER and I'MACHATTERBOX do. Those two would appear to be the main speed aside from SONGBIRD, and unless one of them goes with her -- and not just "with her," but really to push her along -- this race might be over at the half-mile pole.
A: 1
No. 1 SONGBIRD is 11-for-11 and has absolutely demolished every horse she's faced. She's a single to me because while I don't know if I can predict the pace, I also think it might not matter -- she might be good enough to turn away even a reasonably fierce pace challenge! The big question for her, of course, is if she has really beaten any horse of true quality in her 11 wins. This is no doubt the toughest field she's face, but CATHRYN SOPHIA and CARINA MIA are plenty legit -- and she has beaten them like a drum repeatedly.
B: 6, 8
I do believe that No. 8 BEHOLDER is the most likely winner other than SONGBIRD. While she has finished second in three straight races, one of those was to CALIFORNIA CHROME and the other were in a very tough position against STELLAR WIND. Additionally, her speed figures in those races were every bit as good as she was in all but one race of her winning streak (that one race being the Pacific Classic when she ran her eyeballs out. So, while I do somewhat subscribe to the idea that mares do hit a wall at a given point when they get older, I'm not sure the simple act of running second means she's hit that. She should get a better target to run at than she's had in a while, and that's exactly what she had in that Pacific Classic romp. This isn't a strong opinion on BEHOLDER, but I think she very well might have something left in the tank to teach the heir to her throne one final lesson.
On the other hand, No. 6 FOREVER UNBRIDLED is a combination of a pace handicapper's delight and a gut play. She clearly made "the leap" entering her 4-year-old season, winning the Apple Blossom back in April before putting in strong bids in the Ogden Phipps and Personal Ensign and then claiming another Grade 1 in the Beldame. What I think is so interesting about this horse is that she brings it every time and would seem to be the biggest beneficiary of any potential pace duels that occur with this group. And, back to the point that it's hard to predict pace, she's run so well this year despite ever getting a truly nice pace to close into. In fact, every single one of her races this year has been run more slowly than average for that class at the h. If the Distaff goes 3/4 in less than 1:10, look out for Rosario from the back of the pack.
C: 3, 5
The one knock on No. 3 CURALINA (I suppose, anyway -- it's hard to come up with negatives on these horses) is that she has only won twice since July 2015, and in both of those she sat just off of slow paces and was able to draw off by open lengths. It's almost impossible to imagine that happening here, and however consistent she in running in the money, it's hard to bet much on the idea of her outdueling one of these in the stretch when she always seems to fail to do that. On the other hand ... 12/1! The only time in that aforementioned span that she's been greater than 3/1 was in last year's Distaff, when she ran third at 9/1. So, yeah. I might throw down a few bucks just based on the value even if the conviction is not necessarily there.
I am simply not enamored with No. 5 STELLAR WIND. Yes, she won two match races (because that's really all that they were -- in both cases, third place was 10 lengths back) with BEHOLDER this summer/fall, but she had the tactical advantage of sitting off of BEHOLDER in both cases. Her race in last year's Distaff was *much* more impressive to me, and yet she didn't win that one. The theory here, basically, is that she hasn't won a real horse race against this caliber of competition yet.
I like No. 7 I'M A CHATTERBOX, but she had absolutely no excuse in the Personal Ensign for coughing up the lead late against a field of similar caliber ... except not quite as good as this. The Spinster win in her last-out was probably the toughest field she's beaten outright, and that just doesn't seem good enough against these. And yet ... 12/1!
X: 2-4
My jaw would fall to the center of the Earth if No. 2 LAND OVER SEA upset this field. No. 4 CORONA DEL INCA is more of an upside mystery making her first start in America, but would still be such a shock against this group.