The 2016 preakness stakes
Let's start with this: There is not much of a logical reason to believe NYQUIST will lose the Preakness.
In winning the Kentucky Derby, he attended a snappy early pace of :45 3/5 (his own pace was probably about :46 2/5) before seizing control at the top of the stretch and really never being threatened throughout the lane.
The 10 furlong distance sure didn't seem to bother him much (he did switch leads late, but that's old hat by now), and now he's shortening up a bit to 9 1/2 furlongs.
He will probably be 3/5 at post time, and if you don't want to bet against him, I don't blame you. Furthermore, if you don't include him in any exotics, you're likely certifiably insane.
BUT.
I don't think he's that good to not try to beat. I have two reasons -- maybe they're reaching, but they're reasons -- to bet against NYQUIST at a short price:
1) While the first half-mile of the Derby was indeed run in :45 3/5, the third quarter was run in 1:10 2/5. NYQUIST moved up nearly four lengths in this segment, so his fractional time there was likely about :24 flat. That's certainly nothing to sniff at in general -- it's not as if they walked in :25 -- but he got a bit of a break there. I am willing to say that is where the race was won, and I have reason to believe he won't get that same kind of break in the Preakness.
2) He had a leisurely, unpressured trip. He broke well and when MOHAYMEN didn't, and when SHAGAF wasn't persevered with to move forward, he got into great early position. Now, granted: That's part of this horse's appeal in that he can make his own trip. But I want to see him face some early pressure, or a horse to his outside hemming him in, etc. I expected to see that in a 20-horse field like the Derby, but between circumstances and his own talent (and his jockey's talent), he got a beautiful trip. How likely is that to happen again breaking from the No. 3 post with early speed horses to either side of him in the Preakness?
I'll restate this again: If you try to beat NYQUIST, you will probably lose money today. Do I think NYQUIST wins this race at least half the time? Yes, yes I do. Do I think NYQUIST wins this race 2 out of 3 times? No, no I do not.
The Kentucky Derby was straight chalk, and everyone from Bob Baffert to your next door neighbor seems to believe that another Triple Crown is imminent. This is the time to win some money, or at least lose a little chasing a lot.
More than anything, I'm hopeful that everything doesn't go NYQUIST's way this time and I can find some value here. In particular, the pace complexion of this race is much different than the Derby -- where there was only one true frontrunner in that race, there are four or even five horses in the Preakness field that figure to be going early. Is it possible that we'll see NYQUIST in behind horses here?
HERE'S TO HOPING. To the horses in post position order:
1. CHERRY WINE (20/1 morning line): From a pedigree standpoint, he probably belongs on turf, and closers at Pimlico generally seem to run out of time. His Blue Grass was pace-aided, and even there he could only manage a well-beaten third behind Derby also-rans MY MAN SAM and BRODY'S CAUSE. On the other hand, the likely pace sets up well for him, and with an off track, he should get a boost from his pedigree on that, as well. On the OTHER other hand (yes, we're at three hands now), I don't think he's anywhere near as good as EXAGGERATOR. I wouldn't mind using him at the bottom of your exotics wagers, but I'd be pretty surprised if he won -- he hasn't run nearly fast enough to date to beat NYQUIST on even an off day.
2. UNCLE LINO (20/1): He chased DANZING CANDY in a couple of starts, and so he has some very fast-looking splits despite not actually being on the lead until his last, when he ultimately won after a half in :47 flat and three-quarters in 1:11 flat. Interestingly enough, he earned a huge (highest in the field) 109 speed figure for that race as he came home his final 5/16 in :29 4/5, which is darn impressive no matter how the track is playing. That was also against a much lesser field than this at Los Alamitos, and he barely held off a horse closing faster than even he was, so maybe the track just was playing weird? It's a bit hard to know what to make of this one. But since he's another son of UNCLE MO with a damside sire who has seen his best success with sprinting offspring, between that and well-beaten races in the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe, as well as the likely pace here, he's a pass.
3. NYQUIST (3/5): Yeah, I'm not going to say much more about this one. I will simply say that, in my mind, NYQUIST will probably have to do something he has never done before (sit behind horses and take some dirt in his face) and then rally past to win this race. He will probably do so, but I want to make him prove it.
4. AWESOME SPEED (30/1): He was trounced in the Fountain of Youth, but that wasn't reflective of his true ability -- he figured to be on the lead but was bumped out of the gate and never really ran a step. He also hasn't really run that fast to be on the lead in any of his races; he may be able to run as fast as he needs to and turn it off, but with the other speedballs in this race, I do question if we won't see another Fountain of Youth performance where he's mid-pack and just gradually fades. GOVERNOR MALIBU, the horse that nipped him in his last before eventually being DQ'd to second anyway, did flatter this one a bit with a very strong run in the Peter Pan last week. That in particular made me pause to give AWESOME SPEED a second look. The pedigree indicates the stretch out shouldn't be an issue, and this is his third off the layoff -- and he finished plenty strongly according to Brisnet's late pace figure in his last -- so hey, maybe there's a shot? But there's no way they're going 1:15 3/5 for 3/4 in this race, and a slow track or not, he should have had plenty in the tank to get home after those kind of fractions and couldn't, and due to that, he's a toss for me.
5. EXAGGERATOR (3/1): I read that Kent Desormeaux was thinking about having him closer to the pace in this race, but then Keith (the trianer) Desormeaux pretty much has nixed that idea. On one hand, that makes a lot of sense because he was definitely too far back in the Derby and left himself too much to do. On the other, if they read the form, c'mon! This could be the race to take back and make that one devastating run like he did in the Santa Anita Derby again -- 11 horses should be much easier to navigate than 20. If NYQUIST is even a bit off, EXAGGERATOR will be right there (I think the Derby margin would have been closer if Kent had asked him for more in that final 100 yards, although I don't think he was going by regardless). Rain looks very likely for the Preakness, which I think will cause a lot more people to back him than might otherwise ... which is very disappointing, because I think this race sets up perfectly for him on a wet or dry track. The question is if he will still be a good bet on a wet track. Despite his great Santa Anita Derby performance, I don't think he necessarily moves up as much as most people think on a wet track. So I would be more excited about to bet him to win if it miraculously stays dry; if it rains, I'll aim for using him in exotics.
6. LANI (30/1): John Mayer alert: Half of my heart has a grip on the situation. Half of my heart says this horse is going to surprise. He ran decently OK in the Derby, but to think he would go from that effort to a win here is kind of absurd. He was still only ninth. His one-paced grinding style could make the Belmont interesting, however.
7. COLLECTED (10/1): Once upon a time, this was Bob Baffert's "B" horse. And maybe he still is. But he has now won 4-of-6 lifetime starts and his win in the Lexington was the one that made me think he may actually be for real. I don't think he's really cut out for 1 3/16, but he made it 1 1/8 at Sunland and finished strongly after a slow-ish pace, and Pimlico could just be speed-favoring enough to make it work. His Lexington win was honest enough, and he'll be one of the number vying for the lead. But his past two races were against much weaker competition; when he tried better horses in the Southwest, he was a no-excuses, well-beaten fourth. In fact, he got what I would call a dream trip in the dream situation (Baffert at Oaklawn sitting off a solid early pace) and simply couldn't get the job done. He's a toss for me.
8. LAOBAN (30/1): Despite ABIDING STAR's need for the lead mentality, LAOBAN may actually be the faster horse early. And what I actually think is most impressive about this maiden is how hard he fought to the wire after setting fairly blistering paces in his previous two races. He's not a "get passed and throw in the towel" type by any means. On the other hand, in both of those races he did get the sort of third-quarter break that I mentioned with NYQUIST above, so he also perhaps should have held on just as he did, or actually done even better. Eric Guillot was the conditioner of a similarly oft-overlooked horse whose pedigree didn't scream distance (MORENO), so I'll always have a bit of a soft spot in my heart for the guy. While the pedigree truly doesn't match up for 9.5 furlongs here, and while his never-say-die style makes him a use for exotics, I don't see him picking up his first win ever in the Preakness. He may move up in the mud, however, so that's something to consider.
9. ABIDING STAR (30/1): This son of UNCLE MO has run 11 times already in his career -- 10 of those starts since last Oct. 6 -- and has won five of those races. He is the pure speed of the speed here, as he has been on the lead at the first call in 9 of his last 10 races, and within at least a length of the lead at the second call in 9 of his last 10 races, as well. What could be interesting is that despite that, his E1 and E2 figures from Brisnet are not nearly as fast on the whole as a few others here, but given his previous two stars where he looked relatively dominant on the lead, I can't imagine him not being there. As poorly as the outlook appears for any horse that wants to be on or near the lead here, there are a few smart-ish pundits who are actually calling for a slower pace, and there are a number of reasons to consider ABIDING STAR at a likely big price. For one, he has won five straight races, and while the first couple were against nobodies (the first was even a maiden claimer -- he could be yours for $40,000!), he went on to win a $75,000 stake at Laurel and the $100,000 Parx Derby in his last race. But it's the start over a sloppy strip a few back that really caught my eye -- for one, the 103 speed fig is nice, but the fact that he is the only horse here to beat older horses -- and in a race that got a rating of 117, no less (i.e. the same as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year), is very much notable. Finally, he has the UNCLE MO blood, of course, but he also is out of a DYNAFORMER mare, so stretching out does not seem like much of a problem. Again, it's hard to endorse any frontrunners here, but this one intrigues at a likely huge price.
10. FELLOWSHIP (30/1): I will be honest: I kind of forgot he was even in this race. He ran fourth in the Pat Day Mile despite being well off of a blazing early pace, yet actually weakened from second when the field hit the top of the stretch to a well-beaten fourth. In theory, I guess the defense of his weakening would be that he ran the third quarter in that race in about :23 4/5 while running wide on the turn ... but I still don't think that's much of an excuse and the pedigree going this long is not good. He ran third by default in some of the Florida races and I think he has almost no chance to win and not a great chance to hit the board, either. Toss!
11. STRADIVARI (8/1): He figures to be the second or third-choice at post time and it's easy to see why when he outworked DESTIN before the Derby and when watching how he has won his previous two starts by a combined 25 lengths. I have never seen the words "this could be a horse of any kind" more than I have in the past 2 4 hours. The first of those wins wasn't very impressive to me even though it was an 11-length win -- he got an easy early lead, loped along and powered home. His last race, a 14-length win in a Keeneland allowance, however, was eye-catching. After a half in :47 2/5 that he sat a length off of, he took command through three quarters in 1:11 1/5 before opening up by eight lengths as the field hit the top of the stretch and pulling away without being asked for anything by jockey John Velazquez. He truly could be any kind and very well could be a better version of NYQUIST. At the right price, he's very enticing, but he'll take a lot of play for a horse that's so unproven. The possible comparison would be BERNARDINI, who won in 2006 when BARBARO was hurt, but gosh, BERNARDINI was regally bred for the classic races. This is a horse out of an AMERICAN CHANCE mare, which doesn't at all scream distance to me. On the other hand, he ran those 9 furlongs at Keeneland (against nobodies, it should be noted) like he would run forever. It's a total mystery, of course, but he's moving way up in class and should be pressing the pace along with most of the rest of the field.
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While I avoided exotics in the Derby, I'm not willing to invest too much in trying to beat NYQUIST here. EXAGGERATOR is certainly the second-most likely winner and I'll play him to win, but I won't get all crazy. ABIDING STAR and STRADIVARI are the two others that I think *could* win, but STARDIVARI is likely going to take enough money to make him on top a poor idea. So ABIDING STAR will be the other win bet that I'll make this Saturday -- he's probably going to be 40-1 or thereabouts, so why not take a stab?
As for exotics, here's how I'll generally play them:
1st: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR
2ND: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR/STRADIVARI
3rd: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR/STRADIVARI/LAOBAN/CHERRY WINE
4th: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR/STRADIVARI/LAOBAN/CHERRY WINE
That's a $9 exacta if you're playing it for a buck, an $18 trifecta if you're playing it for 50 cents, and a $14.40 superfecta if you're playing it for a dime.
Given the likelihood that NYQUIST wins, the odds are fairly high that you could actually hit these bets and still lose money, but you might be looking at big bucks if ABIDING STAR comes in ahead of STRADIVARI and LAOBAN, for instance.
GOOD LUCK.
In winning the Kentucky Derby, he attended a snappy early pace of :45 3/5 (his own pace was probably about :46 2/5) before seizing control at the top of the stretch and really never being threatened throughout the lane.
The 10 furlong distance sure didn't seem to bother him much (he did switch leads late, but that's old hat by now), and now he's shortening up a bit to 9 1/2 furlongs.
He will probably be 3/5 at post time, and if you don't want to bet against him, I don't blame you. Furthermore, if you don't include him in any exotics, you're likely certifiably insane.
BUT.
I don't think he's that good to not try to beat. I have two reasons -- maybe they're reaching, but they're reasons -- to bet against NYQUIST at a short price:
1) While the first half-mile of the Derby was indeed run in :45 3/5, the third quarter was run in 1:10 2/5. NYQUIST moved up nearly four lengths in this segment, so his fractional time there was likely about :24 flat. That's certainly nothing to sniff at in general -- it's not as if they walked in :25 -- but he got a bit of a break there. I am willing to say that is where the race was won, and I have reason to believe he won't get that same kind of break in the Preakness.
2) He had a leisurely, unpressured trip. He broke well and when MOHAYMEN didn't, and when SHAGAF wasn't persevered with to move forward, he got into great early position. Now, granted: That's part of this horse's appeal in that he can make his own trip. But I want to see him face some early pressure, or a horse to his outside hemming him in, etc. I expected to see that in a 20-horse field like the Derby, but between circumstances and his own talent (and his jockey's talent), he got a beautiful trip. How likely is that to happen again breaking from the No. 3 post with early speed horses to either side of him in the Preakness?
I'll restate this again: If you try to beat NYQUIST, you will probably lose money today. Do I think NYQUIST wins this race at least half the time? Yes, yes I do. Do I think NYQUIST wins this race 2 out of 3 times? No, no I do not.
The Kentucky Derby was straight chalk, and everyone from Bob Baffert to your next door neighbor seems to believe that another Triple Crown is imminent. This is the time to win some money, or at least lose a little chasing a lot.
More than anything, I'm hopeful that everything doesn't go NYQUIST's way this time and I can find some value here. In particular, the pace complexion of this race is much different than the Derby -- where there was only one true frontrunner in that race, there are four or even five horses in the Preakness field that figure to be going early. Is it possible that we'll see NYQUIST in behind horses here?
HERE'S TO HOPING. To the horses in post position order:
1. CHERRY WINE (20/1 morning line): From a pedigree standpoint, he probably belongs on turf, and closers at Pimlico generally seem to run out of time. His Blue Grass was pace-aided, and even there he could only manage a well-beaten third behind Derby also-rans MY MAN SAM and BRODY'S CAUSE. On the other hand, the likely pace sets up well for him, and with an off track, he should get a boost from his pedigree on that, as well. On the OTHER other hand (yes, we're at three hands now), I don't think he's anywhere near as good as EXAGGERATOR. I wouldn't mind using him at the bottom of your exotics wagers, but I'd be pretty surprised if he won -- he hasn't run nearly fast enough to date to beat NYQUIST on even an off day.
2. UNCLE LINO (20/1): He chased DANZING CANDY in a couple of starts, and so he has some very fast-looking splits despite not actually being on the lead until his last, when he ultimately won after a half in :47 flat and three-quarters in 1:11 flat. Interestingly enough, he earned a huge (highest in the field) 109 speed figure for that race as he came home his final 5/16 in :29 4/5, which is darn impressive no matter how the track is playing. That was also against a much lesser field than this at Los Alamitos, and he barely held off a horse closing faster than even he was, so maybe the track just was playing weird? It's a bit hard to know what to make of this one. But since he's another son of UNCLE MO with a damside sire who has seen his best success with sprinting offspring, between that and well-beaten races in the Santa Anita Derby and San Felipe, as well as the likely pace here, he's a pass.
3. NYQUIST (3/5): Yeah, I'm not going to say much more about this one. I will simply say that, in my mind, NYQUIST will probably have to do something he has never done before (sit behind horses and take some dirt in his face) and then rally past to win this race. He will probably do so, but I want to make him prove it.
4. AWESOME SPEED (30/1): He was trounced in the Fountain of Youth, but that wasn't reflective of his true ability -- he figured to be on the lead but was bumped out of the gate and never really ran a step. He also hasn't really run that fast to be on the lead in any of his races; he may be able to run as fast as he needs to and turn it off, but with the other speedballs in this race, I do question if we won't see another Fountain of Youth performance where he's mid-pack and just gradually fades. GOVERNOR MALIBU, the horse that nipped him in his last before eventually being DQ'd to second anyway, did flatter this one a bit with a very strong run in the Peter Pan last week. That in particular made me pause to give AWESOME SPEED a second look. The pedigree indicates the stretch out shouldn't be an issue, and this is his third off the layoff -- and he finished plenty strongly according to Brisnet's late pace figure in his last -- so hey, maybe there's a shot? But there's no way they're going 1:15 3/5 for 3/4 in this race, and a slow track or not, he should have had plenty in the tank to get home after those kind of fractions and couldn't, and due to that, he's a toss for me.
5. EXAGGERATOR (3/1): I read that Kent Desormeaux was thinking about having him closer to the pace in this race, but then Keith (the trianer) Desormeaux pretty much has nixed that idea. On one hand, that makes a lot of sense because he was definitely too far back in the Derby and left himself too much to do. On the other, if they read the form, c'mon! This could be the race to take back and make that one devastating run like he did in the Santa Anita Derby again -- 11 horses should be much easier to navigate than 20. If NYQUIST is even a bit off, EXAGGERATOR will be right there (I think the Derby margin would have been closer if Kent had asked him for more in that final 100 yards, although I don't think he was going by regardless). Rain looks very likely for the Preakness, which I think will cause a lot more people to back him than might otherwise ... which is very disappointing, because I think this race sets up perfectly for him on a wet or dry track. The question is if he will still be a good bet on a wet track. Despite his great Santa Anita Derby performance, I don't think he necessarily moves up as much as most people think on a wet track. So I would be more excited about to bet him to win if it miraculously stays dry; if it rains, I'll aim for using him in exotics.
6. LANI (30/1): John Mayer alert: Half of my heart has a grip on the situation. Half of my heart says this horse is going to surprise. He ran decently OK in the Derby, but to think he would go from that effort to a win here is kind of absurd. He was still only ninth. His one-paced grinding style could make the Belmont interesting, however.
7. COLLECTED (10/1): Once upon a time, this was Bob Baffert's "B" horse. And maybe he still is. But he has now won 4-of-6 lifetime starts and his win in the Lexington was the one that made me think he may actually be for real. I don't think he's really cut out for 1 3/16, but he made it 1 1/8 at Sunland and finished strongly after a slow-ish pace, and Pimlico could just be speed-favoring enough to make it work. His Lexington win was honest enough, and he'll be one of the number vying for the lead. But his past two races were against much weaker competition; when he tried better horses in the Southwest, he was a no-excuses, well-beaten fourth. In fact, he got what I would call a dream trip in the dream situation (Baffert at Oaklawn sitting off a solid early pace) and simply couldn't get the job done. He's a toss for me.
8. LAOBAN (30/1): Despite ABIDING STAR's need for the lead mentality, LAOBAN may actually be the faster horse early. And what I actually think is most impressive about this maiden is how hard he fought to the wire after setting fairly blistering paces in his previous two races. He's not a "get passed and throw in the towel" type by any means. On the other hand, in both of those races he did get the sort of third-quarter break that I mentioned with NYQUIST above, so he also perhaps should have held on just as he did, or actually done even better. Eric Guillot was the conditioner of a similarly oft-overlooked horse whose pedigree didn't scream distance (MORENO), so I'll always have a bit of a soft spot in my heart for the guy. While the pedigree truly doesn't match up for 9.5 furlongs here, and while his never-say-die style makes him a use for exotics, I don't see him picking up his first win ever in the Preakness. He may move up in the mud, however, so that's something to consider.
9. ABIDING STAR (30/1): This son of UNCLE MO has run 11 times already in his career -- 10 of those starts since last Oct. 6 -- and has won five of those races. He is the pure speed of the speed here, as he has been on the lead at the first call in 9 of his last 10 races, and within at least a length of the lead at the second call in 9 of his last 10 races, as well. What could be interesting is that despite that, his E1 and E2 figures from Brisnet are not nearly as fast on the whole as a few others here, but given his previous two stars where he looked relatively dominant on the lead, I can't imagine him not being there. As poorly as the outlook appears for any horse that wants to be on or near the lead here, there are a few smart-ish pundits who are actually calling for a slower pace, and there are a number of reasons to consider ABIDING STAR at a likely big price. For one, he has won five straight races, and while the first couple were against nobodies (the first was even a maiden claimer -- he could be yours for $40,000!), he went on to win a $75,000 stake at Laurel and the $100,000 Parx Derby in his last race. But it's the start over a sloppy strip a few back that really caught my eye -- for one, the 103 speed fig is nice, but the fact that he is the only horse here to beat older horses -- and in a race that got a rating of 117, no less (i.e. the same as the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year), is very much notable. Finally, he has the UNCLE MO blood, of course, but he also is out of a DYNAFORMER mare, so stretching out does not seem like much of a problem. Again, it's hard to endorse any frontrunners here, but this one intrigues at a likely huge price.
10. FELLOWSHIP (30/1): I will be honest: I kind of forgot he was even in this race. He ran fourth in the Pat Day Mile despite being well off of a blazing early pace, yet actually weakened from second when the field hit the top of the stretch to a well-beaten fourth. In theory, I guess the defense of his weakening would be that he ran the third quarter in that race in about :23 4/5 while running wide on the turn ... but I still don't think that's much of an excuse and the pedigree going this long is not good. He ran third by default in some of the Florida races and I think he has almost no chance to win and not a great chance to hit the board, either. Toss!
11. STRADIVARI (8/1): He figures to be the second or third-choice at post time and it's easy to see why when he outworked DESTIN before the Derby and when watching how he has won his previous two starts by a combined 25 lengths. I have never seen the words "this could be a horse of any kind" more than I have in the past 2 4 hours. The first of those wins wasn't very impressive to me even though it was an 11-length win -- he got an easy early lead, loped along and powered home. His last race, a 14-length win in a Keeneland allowance, however, was eye-catching. After a half in :47 2/5 that he sat a length off of, he took command through three quarters in 1:11 1/5 before opening up by eight lengths as the field hit the top of the stretch and pulling away without being asked for anything by jockey John Velazquez. He truly could be any kind and very well could be a better version of NYQUIST. At the right price, he's very enticing, but he'll take a lot of play for a horse that's so unproven. The possible comparison would be BERNARDINI, who won in 2006 when BARBARO was hurt, but gosh, BERNARDINI was regally bred for the classic races. This is a horse out of an AMERICAN CHANCE mare, which doesn't at all scream distance to me. On the other hand, he ran those 9 furlongs at Keeneland (against nobodies, it should be noted) like he would run forever. It's a total mystery, of course, but he's moving way up in class and should be pressing the pace along with most of the rest of the field.
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While I avoided exotics in the Derby, I'm not willing to invest too much in trying to beat NYQUIST here. EXAGGERATOR is certainly the second-most likely winner and I'll play him to win, but I won't get all crazy. ABIDING STAR and STRADIVARI are the two others that I think *could* win, but STARDIVARI is likely going to take enough money to make him on top a poor idea. So ABIDING STAR will be the other win bet that I'll make this Saturday -- he's probably going to be 40-1 or thereabouts, so why not take a stab?
As for exotics, here's how I'll generally play them:
1st: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR
2ND: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR/STRADIVARI
3rd: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR/STRADIVARI/LAOBAN/CHERRY WINE
4th: NYQUIST/EXAGGERATOR/ABIDING STAR/STRADIVARI/LAOBAN/CHERRY WINE
That's a $9 exacta if you're playing it for a buck, an $18 trifecta if you're playing it for 50 cents, and a $14.40 superfecta if you're playing it for a dime.
Given the likelihood that NYQUIST wins, the odds are fairly high that you could actually hit these bets and still lose money, but you might be looking at big bucks if ABIDING STAR comes in ahead of STRADIVARI and LAOBAN, for instance.
GOOD LUCK.